Perform Risk Assessment Research Articles

Risk and the Republican National Convention: Application of the Novel COVID-19 Operational Risk Assessment.

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization broadly categorize mass gathering events as high risk for amplification of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in a community due to the nature of respiratory diseases and the transmission dynamics. However, various measures and modifications can be put in place to limit or reduce the risk of further spread of COVID-19 for the mass gathering. During this pandemic, the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security produced a risk assessment and mitigation tool for decision-makers to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks that may arise as organizations and businesses hold mass gatherings or increase business operations: The JHU Operational Toolkit for Businesses Considering Reopening or Expanding Operations in COVID-19 (Toolkit). This article describes the deployment of a data-informed, risk-reduction strategy that protects local communities, preserves local health-care capacity, and supports democratic processes through the safe execution of the Republican National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina. The successful use of the Toolkit and the lessons learned from this experience are applicable in a wide range of public health settings, including school reopening, expansion of public services, and even resumption of health-care delivery.

How Can Enterprise Risk Management Help in Evaluating the Operational Risks for a Telecommunications Company?

Operational risk is defined as the potential losses resulting from events caused by inadequate or failed processes, people, equipment, and systems or from external events. One of the most important challenges for the management of the company is to improve its results through its operational risk identification and evaluation. Most of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) scholarship has roots in the finance/risk management and insurance (RMI) discipline, mainly in the banking sector. This study proposes an innovative operational risk assessment methodology (OpRAM), to evaluate operational risks focused on telecommunications companies (TELCOs), on the basis of an operational risk self-assessment (OpRSA) process and method. The OpRSA process evaluates operational risks through a quantitative analysis of estimates which inputs are the economic impact and the probability of occurrence of events. The OpRSA method is the “engine” for calculating the economic risk impact, applying actuarial techniques, which allow estimation of unexpected losses and expected losses distributions in a TELCO. The results of the analyzed business unit in the field work were compared with standardized ratings (acceptable, manageable, critical, or catastrophic), and contrasted against the company’s managers, proving that the OpRSA framework is a reliable and useful management tool for the business, and leading to more research in other sectors where operational risk management is key for the company success.

Combining Patulin with Cadmium Induces Enhanced Hepatotoxicity and Nephrotoxicity In Vitro and In Vivo.

Food can be contaminated by various types of contaminants such as mycotoxins and toxic heavy metals. Therefore, it is very likely that simultaneous intake of more than one type of food contaminant by consumers may take place, which provides a strong rationale for investigating the combined toxicities of these food contaminants. Patulin is one of the most common food-borne mycotoxins, whereas cadmium is a representative of toxic heavy metals found in food. The liver and kidneys are the main target organ sites for both patulin and cadmium. We hypothesized that simultaneous exposure to patulin and cadmium could produce synergistic hepatotoxicity and nephrotoxicity. Alpha mouse liver 12 (AML12) and Human embryonic kidney (HEK) 293 (HEK293) cell lines together with a mouse model were used to explore the combination effect and mechanism. The results demonstrated, for the first time, that the co-exposure of liver or renal cells to patulin and cadmium caused synergistic cytotoxicity in vitro and enhanced liver toxicity in vivo. The synergistic toxicity caused by the co-administration of patulin and cadmium was attributed to the boosted reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation. c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1 (JNK1) and p53 as downstream mediators of oxidative stress contributed to the synergistic toxicity by co-exposure of patulin and cadmium, while p53/JNK1 activation promoted the second-round ROS production through a positive feedback loop. The findings of the present study extend the toxicological knowledge about patulin and cadmium, which could be beneficial to more precisely perform risk assessments on these food contaminants.

Perioperative management of patients with pulmonary hypertension undergoing non-cardiothoracic, non-obstetric surgery: a systematic review and expert consensus statement

BackgroundThe risk of complications, including death, is substantially increased in patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) undergoing anaesthesia for surgical procedures, especially in those with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and chronic thromboembolic PH (CTEPH). Sedation also poses a risk to patients with PH. Physiological changes including tachycardia, hypotension, fluid shifts, and an increase in pulmonary vascular resistance (PH crisis) can precipitate acute right ventricular decompensation and death. MethodsA systematic literature review was performed of studies in patients with PH undergoing non-cardiac and non-obstetric surgery. The management of patients with PH requiring sedation for endoscopy was also reviewed. Using a framework of relevant clinical questions, we review the available evidence guiding operative risk, risk assessment, preoperative optimisation, and perioperative management, and identifying areas for future research. ResultsReported 30 day mortality after non-cardiac and non-obstetric surgery ranges between 2% and 18% in patients with PH undergoing elective procedures, and increases to 15–50% for emergency surgery, with complications and death usually relating to acute right ventricular failure. Risk factors for mortality include procedure-specific and patient-related factors, especially markers of PH severity (e.g. pulmonary haemodynamics, poor exercise performance, and right ventricular dysfunction). Most studies highlight the importance of individualised preoperative risk assessment and optimisation and advanced perioperative planning. ConclusionsWith an increasing number of patients requiring surgery in specialist and non-specialist PH centres, a systematic, evidence-based, multidisciplinary approach is required to minimise complications. Adequate risk stratification and a tailored-individualised perioperative plan is paramount.

A Quickly Deployed and UAS-Based Logistics Network for Delivery of Critical Medical Goods during Healthcare System Stress Periods: A Real Use Case in Valencia (Spain)

On the one hand, Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) have experienced great applicability surge in the recent years, arising as a promising technology with a wide field of use. On the other hand, healthcare, a critical system in modern society, is subject to a heavy and unexpected pressure in the case of situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This article aims to leverage the flexibility of UASs as complementary support for healthcare logistic systems when under high-stress conditions, via quick deployment of an air delivery network. We have defined a logistics network model and created three scenarios based on the model and current needs in Valencia (Spain). Flight tests have been performed in these scenarios, which include urban areas and controlled airspace. Operations complied with requirements derived from the application of Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) methodology, recently adopted by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Flights were successful, being able to swiftly deliver medical goods without requiring any dedicated infrastructure. However, a moderate number of contingencies took place during the tests, mainly related to control link quality and Air Traffic Management (ATM) integration, forcing the use of dedicated procedures to cope with them. Although additional development is required to ensure the safety of large-scale automated operations, the use of UASs as part of logistic networks is a feasible means to support existing structures, especially in situations in dire need.

Graph-based risk assessment and error detection in radiation therapy.

The objective of this study was to formalize and automate quality assurance (QA) in radiation oncology. Quality assurance in radiation oncology entails a multistep verification of complex, personalized radiation plans to treat cancer involving an interdisciplinary team and high technology, multivendor software and hardware systems. We addressed the pretreatment physics chart review (TPCR) using methods from graph theory and constraint programming to study the effect of dependencies between variables and automatically identify logical inconsistencies and how they propagate. We used a modular approach to decompose the TPCR process into tractable units comprising subprocesses, modules and variables. Modules represented the main software entities comprised in the radiation treatment planning workflow and subprocesses grouped the checks to be performed by functionality. Module-associated variables served as inputs to the subprocesses. Relationships between variables were modeled by means of a directed graph. The detection of errors, in the form of inconsistencies, was formalized as a constraint satisfaction problem whereby checks were encoded as logical formulae. The sequence in which subprocesses were visited was described in an activity diagram. The comprehensive model for the TPCR process comprised 5 modules, 19 subprocesses and 346 variables, 225 of which were distinct. Modules included "Treatment Planning System" and "Record and Verify System." Subprocesses included "Dose Prescription," "Documents," "CT Integrity," "Anatomical Contours," "Beam Configuration," "Dose Calculation," "3D Dose Distribution Quality," and "Treatment Approval." Variable inconsistencies, and their source and propagation were determined by checking for constraint violation and through graph traversal. Impact scores, obtained through graph traversal, combined with severity scores associated with an inconsistency, allowed risk assessment. Directed graphs combined with constraint programming hold promise for formalizing complex QA processes in radiation oncology, performing risk assessment and automating the TPCR process. Though complex, the process is tractable.

Pulmonary artery size on computed tomography is associated with major morbidity after pulmonary lobectomy

ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship of pulmonary artery diameter (PAD) measured by computed tomography (CT) with outcomes following lobectomy. MethodsRecords of patients undergoing pulmonary lobectomy for lung cancer between 2011 and 2018 were reviewed. Baseline characteristics and postoperative outcome data were derived from the institutional Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. Luminal diameter of the central pulmonary arteries and ascending aorta were measured on preoperative CTs. Logistic regression analyses were performed to test the association of PAD with complications. ResultsA total of 736 lobectomy patients were included, who had a preoperative CT scan (25% with contrast, 75% noncontrast) available for review. A total of 141 (19.2%) patients had an enlarged main PAD ≥30 mm, and 58 (7.9%) patients had a main PAD that was larger than the ascending aorta (PA/ascending aorta ratio > 1). The right or left PAD on the surgical side was associated with major complication (odds ratio per mm, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.18; P < .001), unexpected intensive care unit admission (odds ratio per millimeter, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.19; P = .002), and 30-day mortality (odds ratio per millimeter, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.46; P = .007). On multivariable analysis, adjusted for cardiovascular comorbidities, pulmonary function, and the operative approach, surgical side PAD remained an independent factor associated with major complication. ConclusionsCT-based measurements of the PAD on the operative side may inform of the about the risk of major complications after lobectomy. Review of PA size on preoperative CT scans may help identify patients who would benefit from formal evaluation of PA pressures to improve the operative risk assessment.

Electronic Prescribing Systems as Tools to Improve Patient Care: A Learning Health Systems Approach to Increase Guideline Concordant Prescribing for Venous Thromboembolism Prevention

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes significant mortality and morbidity in hospitalised patients. In England, reporting the percentage of patients with a VTE risk assessment is mandated, but this does not include whether that risk assessment resulted in appropriate prescribing. Full guideline compliance (defined as an assessment and an appropriate action) is rarely reported. Education, audit and feedback enhance guideline compliance but electronic prescribing systems (EPS) can mandate guideline-compliant actions. We hypothesised that EPS-based interventions would increase full VTE guideline compliance more than other interventions. Methods: All admitted patients within University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust were included for analysis between 2011-2020. The proportion of patients who received a fully compliant risk assessment with the recommended action (prophylaxis or not, depending on the risk score) was assessed over time. Interventions included face-to-face feedback based on measured performance (an individual approach) and mandatory risk assessment and prescribing rules into an EPS (a systems approach). Findings: Data from all 235,005 admissions and all 5503 prescribers were included in the analysis. Face-to-face feedback gradually improved full VTE guideline concordance from 70% to 77% (p=<0.001). Changes to the EPS to mandate assessment with prescribing rules increased full VTE compliance to 95% (p=<0.001). Further amendments to the EPS system to reduce erroneous VTE assessments slightly reduced full compliance to 92% (p<0.001), but this was then maintained during two changes to the low molecular weight heparin drug used for VTE prophylaxis. Interpretation: While both feedback and a rules-based EPS intervention improved guideline-compliant VTE management, a systems approach was more effective and benefits were sustained even during changes to formulary drugs. Non-compliance (an assessment without appropriate action or no assessment) was not eradicated despite this mandated system. Further work is needed to understand this and to ensure software changes enhance full guideline compliance. Funding Statement: This work was supported by PIONEER, the Health Data Research Hub in acute care and the HDR-UK Better Care programme. Declaration of Interests: S Gallier, P Nightingale, T Pankhurst, I Woolhouse, MA Berry, M Garrick report no conflicts of interest. S Ball reports funding support from the HDRUK. E Sapey reports funding support from HDRUK, MRC, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Alpha 1 Foundation, EPSRC and British Lung Foundation. All other authors have nothing to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: This research was conducted under the ethical approvals of PIONEER, a Health data research hub in acute care (East Midlands – Derby Research ethics committee, reference 20/EM/0158).

Rosen Method Bodywork practitioners' perspective on the treatment, client interaction and client safety

IntroductionThis study focuses on the Rosen Method Bodywork, which consists of gentle body touching. Contemporary scientific knowledge focuses on how the treatments work or on clients’ perceptions; practitioners’ experiences are quite unexplored. In order to reach a better understanding of the therapy their opinion is important. The aim of this study was to describe practitioners’ views on client interaction and the treatments, and how they regard client safety and protect their clients. MethodThe study was qualitative and descriptive. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with ten private-practicing certified Swedish Rosen Method Bodywork practitioners and analyzed by content analysis. ResultsRosen Method Bodywork training was described to develop trainee practitioners’ interactive skills, self-knowledge and an embodied awareness of what future clients may experience. Before treatment, practitioners perform risk assessments as touching may release demanding responses in clients. Clients were regarded as co-equal with own responsibility for the treatment. In treatment, it was considered important to create a supportive environment and adapt touching to each client´s individual condition and responses, and by this balancing and controlling the client´s process. Clients are not followed up regularly during the post-treatment phase. ConclusionThe client interaction resonates with the principles of person-centred healthcare. The practitioners showed consciousness of potential risks although some critical aspects, due to contextual ruling principles, that might affect client safety or well-being are identified. Collaboration between conventional health care providers and Rosen Method Bodywork practitioners might benefit clients concerning risk assessments or other client safety related issues.

A global assessment of Echinococcus multilocularis infections in domestic dogs: proposing a framework to overcome past methodological heterogeneity

Echinococcus multilocularis, the aetiological agent of human Alveolar Echinococcosis, is transmitted between small mammals and wild or domestic canids. Dogs infected with E. multilocularis as dead-end hosts. Whereas E. multilocularis infections in wild hosts and humans have been well-studied in recent decades, infections in domestic dogs are sparsely reported. This literature review and meta-analysis highlighted gaps in the available data and provided a re-assessment of the global distribution of domestic dog E. multilocularis infections. We found 46 published articles documenting the prevalence of E. multilocularis in domestic dogs from 21 countries across Europe, Asia and North America. Apparent prevalence estimates ranged from 0.00% (0.00–0.33%) in Germany to 55.50% (26.67–81.12%) in China. Most studies were conducted in areas of high human Alveolar Echinococcosis. By accounting for reassessed diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, we estimated true prevalence in a subset of studies, which varied between 0.00% (0.00–12.42%) and 41.09% (21.12–65.81%), as these true prevalence estimates were seldom reported in the articles themselves. Articles also showed a heavy emphasis on rural dogs, dismissing urban ones, which is concerning due to the role urbanisation plays in the transmission of zoonotic diseases, especially those utilising pets as definitive hosts. Lastly, population studies on canine Alveolar Echinococcosis were absent, highlighting the relative focus on human rather than animal health. We thus developed a framework for investigating domestic dog E. multilocularis infections and performing risk assessment of dog-associated transmission to fill the gaps found in the literature.

Primary healthcare workers at risk during COVID-19: An analysis of infections in HIV service providers in five districts of South Africa.

Protecting healthcare workers (HCWs) from COVID-19 is a global priority. Anova Health Institute (Anova) is the PEPFAR(US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) District Support Partner for the Johannesburg, Cape Town, Sedibeng, Capricorn andMopani districts in South Africa, operating in public sector primary healthcare facilities. At the time of the emergence of COVID-19, Anovaemployed close to 4 000 people: 41% community health workers (CHWs), 23% data staff, 20% nurses and doctors, 12% management/support and 5% allied HCWs. To describe rates of COVID-19 diagnosis in Anova-employed HCWs in five districts. Employees exposed to, tested for or diagnosed with COVID-19 were required to report the event. These reports were compiledinto a database to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on the workforce. We kept a timeline of key events occurring at national and districtlevel, including Anova's policies and their implementation, that was used to describe organisational response. We described the number ofconfirmed cases, cumulative incidence rates and testing rates, broken down by district and job category. We estimated expected deaths andthe effect on time off work. Of Anova employees, 14% (n=562) were diagnosed with COVID-19 by the end of September 2020. Cumulative incidence washighest in Sedibeng (29%) and lowest in Mopani (5%). All HCWs experienced high incidences: data staff 17%, allied HCWs 16%, CHWs14%, nurses and doctors 13%, and management/support 11%. At the peak of the epidemic, for 5 weeks, &gt;5% of employees were unableto work owing to exposure or infection, significantly disrupting service delivery. The additional administrative burden on managers wassubstantial. It is critical that all cadres of HCWs are protected in the workplace, including in primary care settings, where better structuresare needed to perform risk assessments and conduct outbreak investigations. CHWs and data staff may be at higher risk owing to poorinfrastructure, limited power to negotiate working conditions, and limited experience of infection prevention and control. Their workingconditions must be improved to reduce their risk.

Bayesian experimental design for CO2 sequestration with leakage risk assessment

PurposeThe author examine the sequestration of CO2 in abandoned geological formations where leakages are permitted up to only a certain threshold to meet the international CO2 emissions standards. Technically, the author address a Bayesian experimental design problem to optimally mitigate uncertainties and to perform risk assessment on a CO2 sequestration model, where the parameters to be inferred are random subsurface properties while the quantity of interest is desired to be kept within safety margins.Design/methodology/approachThe author start with a probabilistic formulation of learning the leak-age rate, and the author later relax it to a Bayesian experimental design of learning the formations geo-physical properties. The injection rate is the design parameter, and the learned properties are used to estimate the leakage rate by means of a nonlinear operator. The forward model governs a two-phase two-component flow in a porous medium with no solubility of CO2 in water. The Laplace approximation is combined with Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the expectation of the Kullback–Leibler divergence that stands for the objective function.FindingsDifferent scenarios, of confining CO2 while measuring the risk of harmful leakages, are analyzed numerically. The efficiency of the inversion of the CO2 leakage rate improves with the injection rate as great improvements, in terms of the accuracy of the estimation of the formation properties, are noticed. However, this study shows that those results do not imply in any way that the learned value of the CO2 leakage should exhibit the same behavior. Also this study enhances the implementation of CO2 sequestrations by extending the duration given by the reservoir capacity, controlling the injection while the emissions remain in agreement with the international standards.Originality/valueUncertainty quantification of the reservoir properties is addressed. Nonlinear goal-oriented inverse problem, for the estimation of the leakage rate, is known to be very challenging. This study presents a relaxation of the probabilistic design of learning the leakage rate to the Bayesian experimental design of learning the reservoir geophysical properties.

Patterns of wildfire risk in the United States from systematic operational risk assessments: how risk is characterised by land managers

Risk management is a significant part of federal wildland fire management in the USA because policy encourages the use of fire to maintain and restore ecosystems while protecting life and property. In this study, patterns of wildfire risk were explored from operational relative risk assessments (RRA) completed by land managers on 5087 wildfires from 2010 to 2017 in every geographic area of the USA. The RRA is the formal risk assessment used by land managers to develop strategies on emerging wildfires when concerns and issues related to wildfire management are in real-time. Only 38% of these wildfires were rated as high risk and 28% had high ratings for values at risk. Large regional variations were evident, with the West Coast regions selecting high risk and the South-west and Eastern regions selecting low risk. There were finer-scale influences on perceived risk when summarised on a jurisdictional level. Finally, risk summarised by USA agencies showed that the National Park Service and USDA Forest Service selected high risk less frequently compared with other agencies. By illuminating patterns of risk, this research intends to stimulate examination of the social, cultural, and physiographic factors influencing conceptions of risk.

Work motivation and operational risk assessment: a new direction for organisational behaviour studies

Work motivation and operational risk assessment: a new direction for organisational behaviour studies

Work motivation and operational risk assessment: a new direction for organisational behaviour studies

Work motivation and operational risk assessment: a new direction for organisational behaviour studies

Establishing a Security Control Framework for Blockchain Technology

Aim/Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose a new information security controls framework for blockchain technology, which is currently absent from the National and International Information Security Standards. Background: Blockchain technology is a secure and relatively new technology of distributed digital ledgers, which is based on inter-linked blocks of transactions, providing great benefits such as decentralization, transparency, immutability, and automation. There is a rapid growth in the adoption of blockchain technology in different solutions and applications and within different industries throughout the world, such as finance, supply chain, digital identity, energy, healthcare, real estate, and the government sector. Methodology: Risk assessment and treatments were performed on five blockchain use cases to determine their associated risks with respect to security controls. Contribution: The significance of the proposed security controls is manifested in complementing the frameworks that were already established by the International and National Information Security Standards in order to keep pace with the emerging blockchain technology and prevent/reduce its associated information security risks. Findings: The analysis results showed that the proposed security controls herein can mitigate relevant information security risks in blockchain-based solutions and applications and, consequently, protect information and assets from unauthorized disclosure, modification, and destruction. Recommendations for Practitioners: The performed risk assessment on the blockchain use cases herein demonstrates that blockchain can involve security risks that require the establishment of certain measures in order to avoid them. As such, practitioners should not blindly assume that through the use of blockchain all security threats are mitigated. Recommendation for Researchers: The results from our study show that some security risks not covered by existing Standards can be mitigated and reduced when applying our proposed security controls. In addition, researchers should further justify the need for such additional controls and encourage the standardization bodies to incorporate them in their future editions. Impact on Society: Similar to any other emerging technology, blockchain has several drawbacks that, in turn, could have negative impacts on society (e.g., individuals, entities and/or countries). This is mainly due to the lack of a solid national and international standards for managing and mitigating risks associated with such technology. Future Research: The majority of the blockchain use cases in this study are publicly published papers. Therefore, one limitation of this study is the lack of technical details about these respective solutions, resulting in the inability to perform a comprehensive risk identification properly. Hence, this area will be expanded upon in our future work. In addition, covering other standardization bodies in the area of distributed ledger in blockchain technology would also prove fruitful, along with respective future design of relevant security architectures.

Occupational Contact Dermatitis in Employees of Large-Scale Narcotic Crop Farms of Ethiopia: Prevalence and Risk Factors. A Self-Reported Study Using the Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire.

Background:Occupational skin diseases are the second leading occupational disease, accounting for almost 25% of all missed workdays. Occupational contact dermatitis (OCD) accounts for 70% to 90% of all skin disorders in the workplace. Only a few occupational epidemiology studies have looked into the prevalence and risk factors of occupation-induced dermatitis among narcotic crop farm workers around the world. Related studies in Ethiopia are even fewer.Methods:A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the Dirashe district of Southern Ethiopia from March 23 to April 12, 2021. Data was collected using a standardized interviewer-administered questionnaire. The history of contact dermatitis was determined using the standardized Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire version 2002 (NOSQ-2002). A total of 578 farm laborers took part in the study, which was conducted using a systematic random sampling. Descriptive statistics and multivariable regression were used to characterize the data and identify factors associated with occupational contact dermatitis.Result:The prevalence of self-reported occupational contact dermatitis in the past 12 months among workers of large-scale Khat farms was (AOR: 67.80%, 95% CI [61.00, 76.23]). In the multivariable regression, being older (AOR: 5.51, 95% CI [1.79, 7.24]), working as a bundle binder (AOR: 5.74, 95% CI [2.12, 15.55]), not wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) (AOR: 2.50, 95% CI [1.64, 3.81]), and having poor knowledge of pesticides use, storage, and disposal methods (AOR: 2.50, 95% CI [1.64, 3.81]) were associated with occupational contact dermatitis.Conclusion:Contact dermatitis caused by work is very common among Khat farm laborers. Measures to promote safe practices and reduce exposure to hazards, such as removing expired and/or banned chemicals, purchasing alternative pesticides that meet legislative requirements, job rotation and routine training of staff on safe practices, increasing safety signage, and performing risk assessments, as well as improving the quantity and quality of institutional protective equipment supplies may thus contribute to the enhancement of safe work practices.

Effect of fuel spatial resolution on predictive wildfire models

Computational models of wildfires are necessary for operational prediction and risk assessment. These models require accurate spatial fuel data and remote sensing techniques have ability to provide high spatial resolution raster data for landscapes. We modelled a series of fires to understand and quantify the impact of the spatial resolution of fuel data on the behaviour of fire predictive model. Airborne laser scanning data was used to derive canopy height models and percentage cover grids at spatial resolutions ranging from 2 m to 50 m for Mallee heath fire spread model. The shape, unburnt area within the fire extent and extent of fire areas were compared over time. These model outputs were strongly affected by the spatial resolution of input data when the length scale of the fuel data is smaller than connectivity length scale of the fuel. At higher spatial resolutions breaks in the fuel were well resolved often resulting in a significant reduction in the predicted size of the fire. Our findings provide information for practitioners for wildfire modelling where local features may be important, such as operational predictions incorporating fire and fuel breaks, and risk modelling of peri-urban edges or assessment of potential fuel reduction mitigations.

Study on Risk Assessment Method of Flight Operation Environment with SVR

Flight operation control still can be improved in some aspects. For example, solve the problems of risk-related factors and complicated assessment methods in flight operation, reduce the potential risk caused by the difference of subjective judgment of personnel, and improve the airlines’ ability to control flight operating risks. In order to achieve these improvement, this study proposes an environmental risk assessment method for flight operation control based on support vector regression machine. The method includes the following steps: (1) firstly, the flight phases are divided; (2) secondly, the main environmental factors of each phase are determined and the data normalization rules are set according to business knowledge; (3) lastly, the model is trained with historical flight data from an airline company, to assess the environmental risk in take-off and landing phase during flight operation. The experiment results prove the validation and efficiency of the model which has been applied to flight operation risk assessment in practice.

ŽRS Safety Management System of Freight Cars

The new concept of safety is reflected and developed in order to improve the safety of railway traffic in the newly created open market. In the new business conditions, subsystems related to freight cars must also meet a number of conditions in order to have a safe traffic, which are mainly related to technical specifications - TSIs. It is also very important to provide uniform procedures related to freight cars maintenance (ECM). The development of risk assessment and risk management methods has made it possible to replace reactive safety control methods with a modern proactive and systematic approach to safety management. In the new concept of safety and in accordance with the recommendations of the European Union and common methods for risk evaluation and assessment, it is necessary to perform risk assessment in railway transport, even in the subsystem of freight cars.