Perceptions Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Online Quantitative Analysis of Perception Uncertainty Based on High-Definition Map.

Environmental perception plays a fundamental role in decision-making and is crucial for ensuring the safety of autonomous driving. A pressing challenge is the online evaluation of perception uncertainty, a crucial step towards ensuring the safety and the industrialization of autonomous driving. High-definition maps offer precise information about static elements on the road, along with their topological relationships. As a result, the map can provide valuable prior information for assessing the uncertainty associated with static elements. In this paper, a method for evaluating perception uncertainty online, encompassing both static and dynamic elements, is introduced based on the high-definition map. The proposed method is as follows: Firstly, the uncertainty of static elements in perception, including the uncertainty of their existence and spatial information, was assessed based on the spatial and topological features of the static environmental elements; secondly, an online assessment model for the uncertainty of dynamic elements in perception was constructed. The online evaluation of the static element uncertainty was utilized to infer the dynamic element uncertainty, and then a model for recognizing the driving scenario and weather conditions was constructed to identify the triggering factors of uncertainty in real-time perception during autonomous driving operations, which can further optimize the online assessment model for perception uncertainty. The verification results on the nuScenes dataset show that our uncertainty assessment method based on a high-definition map effectively evaluates the real-time perception results' performance.

Effects of eco-friendly fishing gears on fishermen's welfare and sustainable fisheries: Lessons learned from Indonesia

The eco-friendly fishing gears (EFFGs) have been widely suggested as fishing gears for sustainable blue economy development. This study aims to examine the effects of the utilization of the EFFGs of blue swimming crab (BSC) on fishermen's welfare and sustainable fisheries by taking Indonesia as a case study. The number of fishermen randomly sampled was 647. The method used to analyze the data was the Endogenous Switching Regression model. The results showed that factors that have significant positive effects on fishermen's decision to adopt the EFFGs are the membership of fishermen in fisheries groups, credit access to financial sources, decision synchronization, financial capability, and fishers' perception of environmental uncertainty. Meanwhile, the complexity of fishing gears and buyer pressure have significant negative effects on fishermen's decisions to adopt EFFGs. The results also confirmed that the welfare of BSC's fishermen is better off and received positive benefits for the preservation and regeneration of resources by using the EFFGs compared to the non-EFFGs. Therefore, the application of the EFFGs for BSC fisheries supports the sustainable blue economy development goals and needs to be recommended for other coastal areas in developing countries.

The Language-Specificity of Phonetic Adaptation to Talkers.

Listeners adapt efficiently to new talkers by using lexical knowledge to resolve perceptual uncertainty. This adaptation has been widely observed, both in first (L1) and in second languages (L2). Here, adaptation was tested in both the L1 and L2 of speakers of Mandarin and English, two very dissimilar languages. A sound midway between /f/ and /s/ replacing either /f/ or /s/ in Mandarin words presented for lexical decision (e.g., bu4fa3 "illegal"; kuan1song1 "loose") prompted the expected adaptation; it induced an expanded /f/ category in phoneme categorization when it had replaced /f/, but an expanded /s/ category when it had replaced /s/. Both L1 listeners and English-native listeners with L2 Mandarin showed this effect. In English, however (with e.g., traffic; insane), we observed adaptation in L1 but not in L2; Mandarin-native listeners, despite scoring highly in the English lexical decision training, did not adapt their category boundaries for /f/ and /s/. Whether the ambiguous sound appeared syllable-initially (as in Mandarin phonology) versus word-finally (providing more word identity information) made no difference. Perceptual learning for talker adaptation is language-specific in that successful lexically guided adaptation in one language does not guarantee adaptation in other known languages; the enabling conditions for adaptation may be multiple and diverse.

Invited Session V: Binocular vision and interactions: The case against probabilistic inference: A deterministic theory of 3D visualprocessing.

I will describe a new computational theory of 3D cue integration and introduce a novel theoretical framework to study 3D vision in humans. The proposed computational theory differs from the current mainstream approaches to the problem in two fundamentally different ways. First, it assumes that 3D mechanisms are deterministic processes that map a given visual stimulus to a unique 3D representation. Second, the proposed theory posits that 3D processing is heuristic, finding correct solutions to the problem only in ideal viewing conditions. The deterministic and heuristic nature of these mechanisms is inconsistent with Bayesian approaches that model brain mechanisms as processes of Bayesian inference aimed at deriving the most accurate and precise representation of 3D structures. These two main features of the proposed theory are implemented in a computational model that allows quantitative predictions of new phenomena. First, it provides an entirely different interpretation of Just Noticeable Differences, a hallmark measure of perceptual uncertainty. Second, it predicts specific perceptual distortions that are at odds with what previous accounts would predict. I will also discuss how the deterministic and heuristic nature of the proposed computational model points towards a re-evaluation of fundamental theoretical assumptions in perception research.

Firms' uncertainty perceptions and financial misallocation: Evidence from China

Recently, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic outcomes has received considerable attention. This research examines the link between firms' perceptions of uncertainty and financial misallocation, with a focus on the differential effects across different types of firms. We find that a heightened sense of uncertainty significantly reduces financial misallocation. This relationship remains robust to rigorous validity checks. Interestingly, we find that private firms, those operating in highly competitive arenas and those with minimal financing barriers are more attuned to economic uncertainty. Hence, for these firms, the moderating effect of uncertainty perception on financial misallocation is particularly pronounced.

Mode choice support through an integrated Delphi-fuzzy logic model

This paper proposes a fuzzy logic mode choice model combined with a Delphi method to extract inference rules, representing the evaluation processes performed by experts. The model covers railway, road, and inland waterway networks and can handle imprecise information about the level of input variables. This fuzziness arises from the attitude and perception of decision-makers and subjective uncertainties. It extends existing models beyond optimisation and includes influential and interrelated input variables. The Rotterdam-Venlo multi-modal freight corridor in the Netherlands is selected as a case study to demonstrate the model's applicability. The model can be used to assist freight forwarders in understanding possible mode choice directions under a certain scenario, support policymakers in testing the effectiveness of designed or implemented policies (e.g. emission reduction), and give insights to infrastructure managers about performance developments by tracing possible effects of planned investments on the mode choice and possible demand shifts.

Firm-level uncertainty and monetary policy transmission: analysis based on investment behavior and annual report text

The loose monetary policy has not translated into actual credit increments, and the real investment rate has declined. This paper extracts the level of policy uncertainty perception from enterprise management analysis and discussion based on text analysis methods to identify the investment intention of enterprises. It is found that enterprise uncertainty perception can weaken corporate investment intention, thus hindering the promotion of loose monetary policy on investment. On the one hand, this paper verifies that uncertainty perception can weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation at the micro level of enterprises; On the other hand, this paper finds that merely being based on the financing constraint theory may not be able to explain the capital investment behavior of Chinese companies. It also requires examining the investment intentions of enterprises themselves, enriching the research conclusions of enterprise investment theory.

Towards Safe Autonomous Driving: Decision Making with Observation-Robust Reinforcement Learning

Most real-world situations involve unavoidable measurement noises or perception errors which result in unsafe decision making or even casualty in autonomous driving. To address these issues and further improve safety, automated driving is required to be capable of handling perception uncertainties. Here, this paper presents an observation-robust reinforcement learning against observational uncertainties to realize safe decision making for autonomous vehicles. Specifically, an adversarial agent is trained online to generate optimal adversarial attacks on observations, which attempts to amplify the average variation distance on perturbed policies. In addition, an observation-robust actor-critic approach is developed to enable the agent to learn the optimal policies and ensure that the changes of the policies perturbed by optimal adversarial attacks remain within a certain bound. Lastly, the safe decision making scheme is evaluated on a lane change task under complex highway traffic scenarios. The results show that the developed approach can ensure autonomous driving performance, as well as the policy robustness against adversarial attacks on observations.

Subjective perception of economic policy uncertainty and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from China

While existing literature explores factors affecting corporate social responsibility (CSR) from various perspectives, the role of economic policy uncertainty perception has never been studied to our knowledge. In this paper, we study the effect of Chinese firms' subjective perception of economic policy uncertainty (SEPU) on their CSR engagement. Our model proves that SEPU reduces the benefits of maintaining relationships between shareholders and stakeholders, thus decreases corporate CSR engagement. This negative relationship is more pronounced for firms that are highly influenced by the government. We empirically examine these two predictions using the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies. We address endogenous concerns by using the US-China trade war as an exogenous uncertainty shock, and including a Bartik instrumental variable.

Job expectations and financial fragility: evidence from pre-COVID Spain

Previous research has related household financial fragility (FF) and the employment status of the household members by focusing only on the labour income channel. In contrast, the literature has scarcely addressed the study of this relationship from a psychological perspective that could be related to the theory of bounded rationality. This article aims to analyse how job expectations relate to the level of household FF. Using a sample of 8554 Spanish individuals in the period 2016–2017, we construct a multidimensional index of household FF. The results indicate that households with unemployed, self-employed, or part-time workers have higher levels of FF, but the job expectations of the household and the individual play an even more important role in the level of the FF. These findings suggest that the perception of labour market uncertainty may influence the level of household FF to a greater extent than the objective employment situations of the individuals.

Why do parents employ helicopter parenting in the post-COVID-19 era? An actor-partner interdependence mediation model.

In the post-COVID-19 era, small-scale and long-term recurrences of the pandemic can exacerbate future economic uncertainty. Previous studies have found that stressful situations are strongly associated with a controlling type of parenting. The relationship between parental perceptions of future economic uncertainty (PFEU) and helicopter parenting is currently unclear. This study aimed to examine the dyadic relationship between PFEU and helicopter parenting among Chinese parents in the postpandemic era and its underlying mechanisms from a family system perspective. Questionnaire data were collected from 395 pairs of parents (Mfather = 43.65 ± 5.30, Mmother = 40.71 ± 5.16, Madolescent = 13.17 ± 0.87, 45.3% male) in Jiangxi Province, China in October 2021. An actor-partner interdependence mediation model was established. The results indicated that fathers' and mothers' PFEU were positively associated with their own helicopter parenting. Additionally, paternal parenting stress mediated the relationship between fathers' and mothers' PFEU and paternal helicopter parenting, whereas mothers' parenting stress mediated the association between mothers' PFEU and paternal and maternal helicopter parenting. The current research provides important insights for improving Chinese family education practices in the postpandemic era.

Enterprise Uncertainty Perception and Tax Avoidance

Enterprise Uncertainty Perception and Tax Avoidance

Digitization, perception of policy uncertainty, and corporate green innovation: A study from China

A green economic transformation requires innovation in related technologies. The impact of digitalization on corporate green innovation must be investigated in the context of increasing policy uncertainty; therefore, this study uses data from listed manufacturing enterprises in China from 2011 to 2020, constructs a digitization and policy uncertainty perception index based on text analysis, and investigates corporate green technology innovation in light of digitization and policy uncertainty perception. The results indicate that digitization substantially and positively affects corporate green technology innovation, which raises its performance. An array of robustness tests, including instrumental variable methods, supports the conclusion that digitization enables green innovation. A Heterogeneity analysis also indicates that digitization has a pronounced impact on green technology innovation in large, capital-intensive, and state-owned enterprises. Frequent policy adjustment engenders an upsurge in policy uncertainty, which impedes corporate green technology innovation; however, digitization can play a vital role in alleviating the negative impacts of economic policy uncertainty, thereby accelerating the development of corporate green technologies. This article provides empirical evidence on achieving green and sustainable development in the digital era, making a valuable contribution to the existing literature.

Urban Ambiguity: Modernist Descriptions in Kajii Motojirō

This article examines early twentieth-century Japanese writer Kajii Motojirō’s short story ‘Remon’ (‘The Lemon,’ 1925) and explores the intersection of Kajii’s descriptions and an emerging urbanscape in Kyoto. Turn-of-the-century Kyoto undertook a massive scale of urbanization, remaking itself as a resurgent imperial capital. Instead of taking note of transformations of the scenery or the frenzies of new experiences, ‘Remon’ illustrates the narrator’s movement unintelligibly suspended in Kyoto’s back alleys. The repeated juxtaposing of different forms of representational media in the narrative also creates intermedial confusion, intensifying the sense of perceptual uncertainty. The article contends that reading the descriptions of ambiguous in-betweenness in the text reveals Kajii’s writerly engagement with the urbanization of Kyoto and leads us to a reevaluation of Kajii’s investment in literary modernism.

Supply chain management with uncertainty in consumer perception of product greenness under an eco-label policy

The urgency of environmental preservation necessitates green manufacturing and supply chain advancements. This research examines a green supply chain problem influenced by eco-label policies, focusing on two prevalent market eco-label types. One allows the manufacturer to determine product greenness, while the other requires compliance with standards set by a non-governmental organization (NGO). We also explore the variability in consumer comprehension of eco-label implications and purchasing behaviors with different eco-labeled products. Through consumer utility and manufacturer profit models, we discover that the manufacturer's production and pricing choices significantly impact consumer behavior. Increased investigation costs may enhance consumer utility through improved product greenness, potentially boosting manufacturer profit via price hikes. However, if investigation costs are minimal, the NGO-label may be rejected due to decreased utility and profit. These insights could help direct supply chains by providing a theoretical foundation for green production decisions and future eco-label policies, whether determined by an NGO or the manufacturer.

Linking stress to the emergence of relational turbulence in marriage

AbstractThe assumption that stress negatively impacts marital relationships is widely accepted; however, the majority of research has focused on marital satisfaction as the outcome of interest. Relational turbulence is a quality of romantic associations on par with—but distinct from—satisfaction, in which partners conceptualize their relationship as chaotic or tumultuous. This paper draws on relational turbulence theory (RTT) and stress spillover research to propose that day‐to‐day stress corresponds with perceptions of relational uncertainty and interdependence, which contributes to increases in relational turbulence. We evaluated these assumptions using data from 64 heterosexual married partners who experienced work‐related disruptions due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Spouses completed a pre‐test survey, 10 weekly surveys, and a post‐test survey over 12 weeks from June to August 2020. Results from longitudinal actor‐partner interdependence models indicated that (a) wives' weekly stress corresponded positively with their own partner uncertainty, relationship uncertainty, and perceptions of partner interference, and (b) the magnitude of wives' stress spillover and husbands' change in relational turbulence were positively associated. Implications for RTT and research on stress spillover are discussed.

Differential effects of physical and financial threats in weight loss advertising: a case of uncertainty

PurposeAdvertisements often use fear appeals to encourage prevention focused behaviors. This approach has been somewhat successful in changing attitudes and behaviors, often encouraging consumers to secede from behaviors such as smoking or to adopt preventative behaviors such as engaging in health screenings. However, health-care marketers have been less successful in efforts to reduce obesity. The obesity crisis has led to an abundance of marketing communications designed to influence weight loss. Many of these focus on fear of physical health risks associated with being overweight which have a certain degree of uncertainty surrounding them. This study aims to examine financial threats that have lower perceptions of uncertainty, and the differential impact this type of threat has on elements of the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM).Design/methodology/approachA 2 × 2 experimental design is used to examine the differential impact of messages communicating threat of financial and physical risk on evoked fear, perceived uncertainty, perceived susceptibility, efficacy and intention to lose weight.FindingsOverall results indicate that response to weight loss advertising varies given the type of threat presented. Results indicate that there is a greater level of uncertainty associated with physical health threats than that with financial threats. Moreover, even though individuals were more fearful of and felt more susceptible to physical threats, when they believed that the recommended behavior was feasible, financial threat was more influential.Originality/valueTo encourage weight loss and intentions to lose weight advertising in practice and advertising research primarily focus on the physical health risks associated with being overweight as a motivating factor. Current research explores the impact of financial threats on attitudes and behavioral intention and finds that financial threats are perceived as more certain than physical threats, and the communication of financial threats is more salient in its effect on weight loss intentions. An opportunity for future research is to further explore the impact of uncertainty in relation to components of EPPM and how threats varying in degrees of uncertainty may impact weight loss intentions.

Economic policy uncertainty: A new firm‐level measurement and impact on enterprise innovation strategies

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of the perception of economic policy uncertainty (PEPU) on enterprise innovation strategies. Using a text‐based method and a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2021, we find that PEPU negatively affects substantive and strategic innovations, and its negative impact on strategic innovations is more noticeable than that on substantive innovations. Mechanism analysis shows that PEPU affects enterprise innovation strategies through innovation investment and financing constraints. Moreover, enterprises with a high shareholding ratio of executives and private enterprises are more likely to suffer the negative impact of PEPU. Finally, analyst attention and internal control quality may weaken the inhibitory impact of PEPU on enterprise innovation strategies.

Metacognition in the audiovisual McGurk illusion: perceptual and causal confidence.

Almost all decisions in everyday life rely on multiple sensory inputs that can come from common or independent causes. These situations invoke perceptual uncertainty about environmental properties and the signals' causal structure. Using the audiovisual McGurk illusion, this study investigated how observers formed perceptual and causal confidence judgements in information integration tasks under causal uncertainty. Observers were presented with spoken syllables, their corresponding articulatory lip movements or their congruent and McGurk combinations (e.g. auditory B/P with visual G/K). Observers reported their perceived auditory syllable, the causal structure and confidence for each judgement. Observers were more accurate and confident on congruent than unisensory trials. Their perceptual and causal confidence were tightly related over trials as predicted by the interactive nature of perceptual and causal inference. Further, observers assigned comparable perceptual and causal confidence to veridical 'G/K' percepts on audiovisual congruent trials and their causal and perceptual metamers onMcGurk trials (i.e. illusory 'G/K' percepts). Thus, observers metacognitively evaluate the integrated audiovisual percept with limited access to the conflicting unisensory stimulus components on McGurk trials. Collectively, our results suggest that observers form meaningful perceptual and causal confidence judgements about multisensory scenes that are qualitatively consistent with principles of Bayesian causal inference. This article is part of the theme issue 'Decision and control processes in multisensory perception'.

Enhancing Consumers’ Repurchase Intention in Peer-to-Peer Accommodation Following a Dual Processing Model: A Principal–Agent Perspective

In peer-to-peer (P2P) accommodation, consumers face high levels of consumption uncertainty from both P2P sites and hosts. Our study applies principal–agent theory to develop a dual processing model in examining how to support consumers’ repurchase intention by reducing consumers’ uncertainty perceptions associated with booking and staying. We selected Airbnb as our context and collected survey data from American consumers. The results show that perceived uncertainty (hosts) has a direct effect on repurchase intention, whereas perceived uncertainty (site) has an indirect effect. Further, perceived utility and trust in the last host can help reduce fears of opportunism (hosts), whereas site quality can alleviate fears of opportunism (site). Our study contributes to the literature by developing a dual-processing model of repurchase intention to clarify how consumers’ repurchase intention can be enhanced. The results can provide important guidelines regarding how to support consumers’ repurchase intention. We also provide suggestions regarding how to deal with additional uncertainties post COVID-19.