Mode choice support through an integrated Delphi-fuzzy logic model

Abstract

This paper proposes a fuzzy logic mode choice model combined with a Delphi method to extract inference rules, representing the evaluation processes performed by experts. The model covers railway, road, and inland waterway networks and can handle imprecise information about the level of input variables. This fuzziness arises from the attitude and perception of decision-makers and subjective uncertainties. It extends existing models beyond optimisation and includes influential and interrelated input variables. The Rotterdam-Venlo multi-modal freight corridor in the Netherlands is selected as a case study to demonstrate the model's applicability. The model can be used to assist freight forwarders in understanding possible mode choice directions under a certain scenario, support policymakers in testing the effectiveness of designed or implemented policies (e.g. emission reduction), and give insights to infrastructure managers about performance developments by tracing possible effects of planned investments on the mode choice and possible demand shifts.