Flood Risk Perception Research Articles

Cognitive Limits of Perceived Flood Risk on Residential Property Values

Examining cognitive limits in flood risk perception for residential property values, we analyse the Richmond housing market in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Using micro-level home sales data, our study reveals that the market has integrated long-term flood risk into property values. A notable 10.8% price discount is observed for properties within 1-100 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood zone, 4.4% for those in an AEP 500 zone, with no discounts for AEP 1000 flood zone properties. Comparisons of 2019 and 2023 flood maps and property’s Time-on-Market (TOM) affirm that people’s cognitive limits constrain to the AEP 500 level.

Community flood risk assessment in selected areas in Muntinlupa City

The study's objective is to hopefully create a profound awareness in the city government of Muntinlupa of the plight the community is experiencing. A quantitative research design was utilized in this study. Flood risk perception: The probability of whether a retention pond, increasing the diameter of the existing reinforced concrete pipes, and or increasing the road elevation can be a permanent or a quick-fix solution is still unknown until the local government can conduct a comprehensive technical and environmental assessment of the different vulnerability factors in the community. No significant differences were found between age, years of residency, and flood risk perception. Flood risk preparedness: No significant differences existed between age, years of residency, and flood risk preparedness. Substantial differences were found between gender and flood preparedness, and they favor the male gender. Flood risk awareness: No significant differences existed between age, years of residency, and flood risk awareness. There were substantial differences between gender and flood awareness, and they favored the male gender. The study's recommendations encourage the local government of Muntinlupa to conduct a comprehensive administrative, technical, and environmental assessment of the different vulnerability factors facing the selected areas in the community.

“We live here because of nature”: transformation towards better flood resilience on small Danish islands

Climate change is increasing the threat of flooding on small Danish islands. This article presents the results of a qualitative case study of flood risk perceptions and adaptive actions on three small Danish islands. The study explores how an empirical study of the islanders’ sense of place can contribute to a transformation towards better flood resilience. It finds that sense of place is closely connected to living close to nature, but also it highlights that the meaning given to ‘nature’ varies among the islanders. For some, nature is an uncultivated, wild landscape; for others, it is the present, cultural landscape. Another difference concerns whether the islands are described as a place to make a living or as a place to get away from everyday life. For some, farming and grazing are central to how they make a living on the islands; for others, these activities belong to the past. This insight into differences in the islanders’ sense of place contributes to understanding different perspectives regarding what is worth protecting, and what it is possible to protect from flooding, as well as why it is difficult for the islanders to reach agreement on the subject. This understanding has transformative potential, as it can give the islanders themselves, as well as authorities responsible for flood protection, a valuable insight into what drives and hinders actions to manage or reduce flood risk on small islands.

Managing Risk Mitigation in Urban Expansion Areas of Argentina’s Drylands: The Gap between Perception and Environmental Behaviour

Accessibility to rigorous scientific information to promote risk mitigation measures by citizens is crucial, especially in the context of climate change and extreme weather events. This study focuses on the perception of flood risk and the implementation of mitigation strategies by residents in drylands urban sprawl areas. Risk perception, defined as the subjective assessment of the likelihood and potential consequences of flooding, is a key element of mitigation. While many studies have explored the link between risk perception and behaviour, this research addresses gaps in understanding how public information affects these perceptions and actions. In areas of rapid urban expansion, where regulation often overlooks environmental features, the lack of adequate information poses significant barriers to effective risk mitigation. This research reveals that although residents claim to understand flooding, their descriptions often indicate a lack of understanding of the phenomenon. This ‘passive optimism’ could be mitigated by providing rigorous information and specific technical recommendations. This study highlights the disconnect between residents’ awareness of flood risks and the inadequacy of preventive measures, underlining the importance of targeted information and collaboration between the scientific community, government sectors, and local populations.

Exploring the factors associated with final-year primary school students’ flood knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness in flood-prone areas of South Thailand

Flood frequency has increased globally, and children are among the groups most vulnerable to risk during these events. A significant challenge in mitigating floods worldwide is enhancing flood knowledge, flood risk perception (FRP), and flood preparedness (FP) among communities. Research on FP among primary school students (PSS) in Thailand is limited. This study evaluated the flood knowledge, FRP, and FP of final-year PSS in Nakhon Si Thammarat, a flood-prone area in South Thailand, and identified associated factors. This cross-sectional study surveyed 784 students aged 11–13 years from 61 primary schools. Data collected via a questionnaire included sociodemographic traits, flood experience, learning, training, living arrangements, sources of flood information, feelings about floods, flood knowledge, FRP, and FP. Chi-square and multivariate regression analyses identified the factors linked to the students’ flood knowledge, FRP, and FP. The study revealed that nearly 69.4 % had experienced flooding, and a substantial 91.2 % had never received flood training. Additionally, most students exhibited low levels of flood knowledge, FRP, and FP. The multivariate analysis indicated that the factors significantly associated with flood knowledge included learning experiences, flood information from friends, and Facebook; FRP is influenced by experiences of flooding at home, learning experiences, emotional responses, and sources of flood information from the community and YouTube; and FP is associated with flood training, information from friends, and FRP. The results of this study provide essential guidelines for preparing to address future flooding events among children in the Nakhon Si Thammarat Province and Thailand.

Proposal of a method to analyze children’s flood risk exposure and risk perception using GPS tracking data and questionnaire survey

BackgroundClimate change has made the relationship between disaster and sustainable development more critical. Especially in developing countries, disasters frequently devastate local communities and hinder progress. Children are at a higher risk during catastrophes; however, their knowledge of disaster risk is limited. Education for disaster risk reduction can bring the necessary changes for a safe society. School disaster prevention education can raise awareness through lectures and games, but interactive dialogues between students and teachers can be more effective. Also, GPS tracking can be a valuable tool for understanding people’s behavior during disasters.MethodologyThis study proposes a method to analyze the relationship between students’ daily behavior and their experiences of flood damage and preparedness for disaster risk. It is a simple method using questionnaires and GPS loggers and can be applied in mountainous areas in developing countries where equipment is inadequate. The proposed method will be used to understand the current state of disaster risk among children and identify disaster risk reduction issues. The study area lies in Paluntar Municipality, Gorkha district, Nepal. Forty-five students from two schools in the region participated in the study.ResultsThe results showed that students who commute to school in areas inundated by heavy rainfall in recent years were not adequately prepared for disasters, even though they had experienced flood damage in the past and were significantly more concerned about future harm. Our field observations and interviews of teacher-student relationships showed that students were very attentive to their teachers’ instruction. Teachers understand the dangers of heavy rainfall and how to prepare for it, but students need to learn how to deal with it. In other words, the school staff’s disaster education to the students effectively reduces disasters. Early warning is needed when severe floods are expected during the rainy season.

University student flood risk perceptions and flood probability knowledge in Greater Sydney

AbstractWhile flood risk perception has been studied extensively in general populations, there remains a dearth of focus on youth perspectives – a key demographic to mobilising knowledge to achieve disaster risk reduction targets. This study aimed to evaluate university students’ perceptions of flood risk and their understanding of common flood probabilities in the Greater Sydney region of Australia. We surveyed 262 university students to better understand how flood preparedness, knowledge, and experience predict flood risk perceptions. Using ordinal logistic regression, we identified that students with past flood experience and women were more likely to have higher flood risk perceptions. In contrast, students with higher flood preparedness were more likely to have lower flood risk perceptions. Age, degree level (e.g. bachelor’s, master’s), place of residence, and flood knowledge were inconclusive predictors of risk perception. We also assessed differences in how students rated the likelihood of three equivalent flood probabilities presented in different ways: (1) a 1-in-100 year flood; (2) a flood with a 1% of happening in a given year; and (3) a flood with a 55% chance in an 80-year lifetime. Using Friedman and Kruskal-Wallis tests, we compared differences within student responses and across different risk perception groups. We found that students perceived equivalent flood probabilities stated over longer periods of time to be more likely to occur. This study contributes to understanding student perceptions of flood risk, presenting recommendations on how governments and higher educational institutions can improve building students’ knowledge of flood hazards.

Assessing the impact of flood risk and associated factors on profitability of fish farming operations: evidence from South- South Nigeria

Fish farming plays a crucial role in food security and economic development in Nigeria. However, the country’s susceptibility to floods due to its geographical location and climate change has raised concerns about the profitability and sustainability of fish farming operations. This study aims to assess the impact of flood risk and associated factors on the profitability and sustainability of fish farming operations in South-South, Nigeria. The research employs a purposive random sampling techniques to generate data on flood frequency and severity, associated factor affecting profitability fish farms locations in the three (3) states, and other associated factors affecting profitability of fish farmers, their production figures are collected and analyzed to identify areas prone to flooding and the extent of damage caused to fish farms. Additionally, two hundred and one (180) fish farmers were sampled for the study (Delta 96, Bayelsa45 and Rivers 60 fish farmers) to gather information on flood risk effects, perception and profitability during flood occurrence. Preliminary findings indicate that flood severity is statistically significant at a 5% level (t-ratio: -2.4806) with a negative coefficient (-0.4876). Flood frequency is statistically significant at a 1% level (t-ratio: -4.5934). with a negative coefficient of -3.8035. This suggests that more severe flood events are associated with lower profitability among fish farmers. The result also revealed that at a probability of 0.1%, fish farmers in Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers States were susceptible to flooding with about 92.9% experiencing flood events although at a probability of 0.2%, it was noticed that only 7.1% of fish farmers were facing flood events. The study recommends that adoption of climate- smart farming practices, such as choosing flood resistant fish species and diversifying income sources, can enhance resilience, prioritize conducting thorough risk assessments specific to each fish farming location. These assessments should consider historical flood data, local climate conditions, topography, and the vulnerability of infrastructure. These findings will inform farmers and policy makers about the level of risk and guide mitigation efforts.

Flood Risk Perception and Adaptation in Martapura River

Indonesian river basin towns face flood disasters that damage lives, infrastructure, and socioeconomic stability. Recent flood frequency and intensity have increased in the Martapura River settlements in Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan. This study examines flood risk perception and adaptation measures. The study analyzes flood risk perception, adaption strategies, and factors affecting them among residents. The 2023 mixed-method study combined quantitative surveys (n=358) and qualitative interviews (n=25) in five sub-districts over six months. The study found that previous flood experience was the best predictor of high-risk perception and adaptation strategies across geographic and socioeconomic boundaries. The adaption options ranged from structural changes to community-based efforts. Local government announcements and social media were primary sources, but environmental knowledge was low. Cultural linkages to the river and economic limits shaped adaptation. These findings highlight the necessity for personalized risk communication, improved early warning systems, and local expertise in modern flood control. The work adds to the knowledge on community resilience in flood-prone developing nations and informs policymakers and disaster managers. Future research should focus on long-term climate change adaptation techniques and novel ways to overcome economic barriers to individual and community flood resilience.

Investigating the influence of residents' attitudes, perceptions of risk, and subjective norms on their willingness to engage in flood prevention efforts in Freetown, Sierra Leone

This study investigates the intricate relationships between flood disaster risk perception (RP), attitudes(ATT), subjective norms(SN), and participation in flood prevention activities(IPF), emphasizing the mediating roles of self-efficacy(SE) and bonding social capital(BSC). The research in Freetown, Sierra Leone, involved 702 participants, providing a diverse socio-demographic snapshot crucial for understanding community-based flood risk management. Data analysis revealed that demographic factors like age, gender, education, and income significantly influence flood risk perceptions and mitigation behaviors. Additionally, subjective norms were found to substantially impact both self-efficacy and bonding social capital, affecting participation in flood prevention activities. The study also explored the role of community dynamics and social norms in shaping risk perceptions and intentions to engage in flood risk prevention. It was observed that higher self-efficacy and more robust community bonds lead to increased participation in flood mitigation efforts. The findings offer valuable insights into flood prevention behavior's psychological and social drivers and highlight the importance of community-focused strategies in enhancing flood resilience. The study contributes to the broader understanding of flood risk management in urban settings, particularly in developing countries, and underscores the need for policies and practices that foster individual empowerment and collective community action.

To live with floods or not: Intersectionality of drivers of urban households' adaptation and relocation intentions

AbstractThe intent of households to relocate amidst floods in Ghana's Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, using combined socio‐demographic and physical factors is analyzed within 1206 households. The National Master Sampling Frame of Ghana's Population and Housing Census is utilized for the sampling. The Probit estimation technique is employed to understand the intersectionality of social, economic, demographic, and physical considerations influencing households' decision‐making regarding relocation amidst flood risks. The findings show households' reluctance to relocate contrary to relocation considered mostly as preferred adaptation. The likelihood of relocating exhibited a non‐linear pattern, decreasing only when a population was younger until age 55 before reversing. Indigenous households preferred not to relocate. In communities where place attachment and revenue sources significantly impacted relocation decisions, households with secondary education, past flood experiences, and non‐indigenous status influenced higher perception of flood risk. Therefore, relocation as an effective global adaptation strategy to floods is not widespread. Thus, empowering households to accept a certain level of flood risk potentially avoids maladaptation and involves a combination of hard infrastructure measures and regulatory approaches in places of residence that do not compromise livelihoods. However, if relocation becomes necessary, a right‐based approach must be favored over an absolute risk‐based approach.

Race/ethnicity and worry about the threat of flooding: a mediation analysis of perceived risk versus preparedness

ABSTRACT Research has demonstrated that natural disasters, like flooding that are increasing with climate change, can have profound mental health effects. Moreover, these outcomes are not experienced evenly across the population with disadvantaged populations like racial/ethnic minorities and lower socio-economic status individuals being more likely to report psychological diagnoses and symptoms related to floods. However, the mechanisms that could account for the link between social vulnerability and worry about the threat of flooding remain poorly understood. In this analysis, we use a 2022 survey of Houston-area residents to examine how perceived flood risk and subjective flood preparedness relate to racial/ethnic differences in worry about the threat of flooding. We find that both individual-level and area-level race/ethnicity are significantly related to greater worry about the threat of flooding. Further, this is partially mediated by perceived flood risk, but not subjective flood preparedness. This suggests that policies and infrastructure priorities that reduce risk rather than prepare households for flooding would accomplish more in closing the gap in social disparities in mental health outcomes from flooding.

Assessment of Rural Flood Risk and Factors Influencing Household Flood Risk Perception in the Haut-Bassins Region of Burkina Faso, West Africa

In the past two decades, several floods have affected people and their properties in Burkina Faso, with unprecedented flooding occurring in Ouagadougou in September 2009. So far, most studies have focused on Ouagadougou and surrounding localities and have paid little attention to other flood-prone regions in Burkina Faso. Consequently, there is a data and knowledge gap regarding flood risk in the Haut-Bassins region, which in turn hinders the development of mitigation strategies and risk reduction measures in affected communities. This study demonstrates how data collected at the household level can be used to understand flood risk and its components at the village level in this data-scarce region. Using an indicator-based method, we analyzed both flood risk and flood risk perception at the village level. Moreover, we determined the factors influencing flood risk perception at the household level using an ordered logit model. We found that 12 out of the 14 villages in our sample group had experienced high levels of flood risk. The management of runoff from the nearest urban areas as well as poorly designed civil engineering infrastructures, such as roads, were highlighted by households as significant factors that increased their vulnerability. Additionally, we found that the perceived flood risk consistently exceeds the estimated flood risk, with an insignificant positive correlation between both risk indices. Regression results indicate that flood risk perception is mainly influenced by informational and behavioral factors of households. The findings of this study can provide valuable information to municipal and regional authorities involved in disaster risk management within the study area. Moreover, our/this method is transferable to other data-scarce regions.

Integrating Law in Flood Management in India: A Case Study of Flood Awareness and Risk Perception in Mumbai

Globally, floods are increasing in frequency and velocity. The position in India is no different with floods emerging as a complex, recurring problem leaving behind a trail of death and destruction. Although floods cannot be completely eliminated solely through law, law can be an important tool to mitigate its consequences and reduce its risks. Using a mixed doctrinal and non-doctrinal methodology, this study investigates the efficacy of the legal, policy and institutional mechanism on flood management in India. Moreover, with the recent thrust on disaster risk management and reduction, risk perception of natural disasters of the public at large is also emerging as a vital component of the disaster management process. In the present research, a case study of flood risk perception in Mumbai has been undertaken wherein participants from Greater Mumbai and Mumbai suburban districts participated in a survey on their awareness and perception of floods and related risks. The research findings indicate that while majority have experienced floods, have awareness on its causes and dangers, they do not know about challenges in terms of the efficacy of law. It is argued that as continuous neglect of community is likely to be catastrophic, a robust legal framework ought to be built that secures Government-community partnership for effective flood management.

Designing and Psychometric Evaluation of a Questionnaire for Assessing Society's Perception of Flash Flood Risk

Background: Public perception of risks associated with natural disasters like flash floods significantly influences disaster management effectiveness. Flash floods pose a major threat to life and property, and a lack of tools to evaluate societal risk perception creates a critical gap. Objectives: This study aimed to design and evaluate the psychometric properties of a questionnaire specifically assessing society's perception of flash flood risk. Methods: A two-stage approach was employed. The first stage involved collecting questionnaire items through a systematic literature review and a qualitative study. In the second stage, a comprehensive psychometric evaluation was conducted, including assessments of face validity, content validity, and construct validity. Reliability was established using Cronbach's alpha. Confirmatory factor analysis was further conducted with data collected from 136 community members who had experienced flash floods. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 20 and AMOS software. Results: A combination of qualitative data and systematic review findings facilitated the development of 36 initial questionnaire items. Applying quantitative and qualitative construct validity measures led to the refinement of the instrument, resulting in 29 final items categorized into three domains: Risk perception (12 items), awareness (10 items), and preparedness (7 items). The internal consistency of the instrument was confirmed by a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.88. Factor analysis further supported the good fit of the hypothesized model to the data. Conclusions: This study successfully developed and rigorously evaluated a questionnaire to assess society's perception of flash flood risk. This instrument offers valuable insights for informed decision-making and identification of factors influencing risk perception, ultimately contributing to improved disaster preparedness and management.

Flood Risk Perception and Government’s Role in Implementing Regulations

This study investigates the relationship between public perceptions of flood risk, participation in government action, satisfaction with government efforts, knowledge of flood prevention, and institutional trust in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Employing a quantitative approach, the research utilizes structural equation modeling to analyze the relationships among these variables across six disaster-prone communities in Freetown from 2017 to 2022. Data were collected from 1,500 respondents using STATSL2020 questionnaire, covering flood risk perception, public participation, satisfaction with government actions, flood knowledge, and institutional trust. The analysis reveals that higher public participation and institutional trust correlate with lower perceived flood risks, while a greater perception of flood risk negatively affects views on government efforts. Furthermore, the findings indicate that knowledge and trust influence the impact of public engagement on satisfaction with government actions, with demographic variables such as gender, age, income, and education playing a role in these relationships. This study empirically demonstrates the relationship between institutional trust and public participation in flood risk perception, highlighting the importance of clear communication and participatory strategies in building trust and satisfaction in government flood risk management. The research underscores the significance of involving communities in disaster prevention efforts and the need for transparent communication to enhance public trust and satisfaction with government regulations for flood disaster prevention.

Desensitised flood risk perception to extensive disasters in a marginalised urban kampong in Indonesia

ABSTRACT Worldwide, flood risk is on the rise. Simultaneously, the UNDRR fears that humanity’s risk perception is broken. Low-intensity, high-frequency extensive floods are cumulatively the most damaging phenomenon. However, risk perception in the context of extensive floods is widely under-researched. Indonesia is on the nexus of low-risk perceptions, extensive flood risk and poverty. Therefore, a socio-economically marginalised and frequently flooded urban kampong where residents appear to exhibit low levels of risk perception, serves as a case for this study. Data was gathered through five months of fieldwork in Pontianak, West-Kalimantan, consisting of participatory observations and semi-structured interviews. While studies often focus on subjective risk perception, this study includes the socio-cultural context, and aims to understand differentiated perspectives on extensive flood risk. Results show that extensive floods in Tambelan Sampit primarily lead to indirect losses. Furthermore, risk perception is strongly shaped by the extensive characteristics of floods and the socio-cultural context. While risk perception in the kampong is low, we propose that in this specific case the risk perception is desensitised rather than broken. Understanding risk perception as desensitised can add nuance to understandings of people’s experience of (extensive) disasters, explain their behaviour towards risk and potentially inform improved mitigation and adaptation policies. Highlights Risk perception is a context specific phenomenon informed by a blend of individual understandings and socio-cultural factors. Rather than considering risk perception as generally broken or biased, in the context of extensive disasters it is more accurate to characterise perception as ‘desensitized’. Awareness, worry and preparedness, as three interconnected aspects of risk perception, can all become desensitised in ways that together contribute to marginalised people being more vulnerable to negative impacts of flooding. Flood management requires appropriate attention to desensitised risk perceptions to effectively prioritise prevention and mitigation in extensive flood contexts.

Statistical analysis of flood risk perception: a case study for Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey

It is very essential in terms of flood risk management to consider social expectations such as risk perception, flood awareness, preparedness, and socio-economic dynamics together with engineering designs. Understanding the way people perceive flood risk can enhance our capability of improving existing flood risk management methods, thus helps us creating disaster resilient societies. In this study, results of a questionnaire which was used for a previous study and had been administered to participants from Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey were further investigated using statistical methods. The main aim was to understand how demographic factors such as age, gender and education level affect people’s flood risk perception. It was also desired to see that whether they were aware of the parties responsible for taking mitigation measures, or whether they know about possible flood mitigation measures or not. Using the same data with the previous study, but in addition using SPSS software to do statistical analysis, questionnaire results were investigated using convenient statistical tests for each parameter, analysis results were interpreted, and conclusions were drawn. Same tests were conducted using weight coefficients adopted using a certain methodology which is explained in the paper, in order to make a better investigation. Also, results were compared with the results of the previous study. It was seen that there were some consistencies and contradictions between the results of the previous study and this study’s results.

Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions

Abstract. Flood damage caused by hurricanes is expected to rise globally due to climate and socio-economic change. Enhanced flood preparedness among the coastal population is required to reverse this trend. The decisions and actions taken by individuals are thought to be influenced by risk perceptions. This study investigates the determinants that shape flood risk perceptions and the factors that drive flood risk misperceptions of coastal residents. We conducted a survey among 871 residents in flood-prone areas in Florida during a 5 d period in which the respondents were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. This approach allows us to assess temporal dynamics in flood risk perceptions during an evolving hurricane threat. Among 255 of the same households, a follow-up survey was conducted to examine how flood risk perceptions varied after Hurricane Dorian failed to make landfall in Florida. Our results show that the flood experience and social norms have the most consistent relationship with flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, participants indicated that their level of worry regarding the dangers of flooding decreased after the near-miss of Hurricane Dorian compared to their feelings of worry during the hurricane event. Based on our findings, we offer recommendations for improving flood risk communication policies.

Using public participation gis to understand texas coastal communities’ perceptions and preferences for urban green space development in connection to their perceptions of flood risk

Urban green spaces, a form of green infrastructure, provide cities with a number of opportunities to build urban resilience to withstand a wide range of urban challenges, such as land-use change, climate change, biodiversity loss, and physical and mental health. Despite their benefits to communities, urban green spaces are among the most valuable and attractive areas for development and are most susceptible to urban development. Therefore, careful planning of the green space network is needed,requiring diverse voices from not only city policymakers and planning experts but also local residents. This study investigated residents’ perceptions and preferences for green space development and its association with perceived flood risk. Data were collected from residents residing in two Texas Gulf Coast cities via a Public Participation Geographic Information System (PPGIS) platform. Our analyses revealed that Texas Gulf Coast residents assigned a full spectrum of landscape values to their existing urban green spaces with aesthetic and recreation values being most frequently identified. Notably, across the city landscape, urban green spaces that were most favored by residents tended to be green spaces with water bodies, large in scale and offered a broader array of facilities/amenities. These spaces were also identified as flood-prone areas, presenting opportunities for green space improvement, flood protection, and preservation. In addition, we observed a significant association between residents’ risk perception and the number of locations across the city landscape they perceived as posing the greatest flooding threat. Our findings illustrate a need to promote multiple landscape values of urban green spaces, especially in its ability to protect the city from future flooding. This research highlights how PPGIS can support green infrastructure planning as well as enhance public participation in green infrastructure planning processes.