Percent Of Cropland Research Articles

Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: The Meridian Moves East

Abstract The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. It is first shown that state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. The main contributor to the changes is rising potential evapotranspiration, while changes in precipitation working alone increase aridity across the southern and decrease across the northern United States. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses. In the current farm economy, farm size and percent of county under rangelands increase and percent of cropland under corn decreases as aridity increases. Statistical relations between these quantities and the bias-corrected aridity projections suggest that, all else being equal (which it will not be), adjustment to changing environmental conditions would cause farm size and rangeland area to increase across the plains and percent of cropland under corn to decrease in the northern plains as the century advances.

Land-use choices: the case of conservation reserve program (CRP) re-enrollment in Kansas, USA

ABSTRACTAmong the important alternatives for land conservation is the US Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) that celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2015. This paper explores how landowners decide on alternative land-use choices made available by the expiration of CRP contracts in Kansas. The study uses survey data and multinomial Logit models to predict land-use choices. Two models were tested. The first model does not incorporate variables concerning farmer perceptions and attitudes about land-use choices, while the second model does. The results show that CRP re-enrollment depends on factors, such as years of experience in cropping and percent of cropland irrigated. However, when perception variables are added, the models become more robust in explaining other land choice alternatives. The results suggest that as the perception of unfairness of more inflexible environmental policy rises, these farmers may be more likely to re-enroll their marginal land in the CRP program.

Impacts of varying agricultural intensification on crop yield and groundwater resources: comparison of the North China Plain and US High Plains

Agricultural intensification is often considered the primary approach to meet rising food demand. Here we compare impacts of intensive cultivation on crop yield in the North China Plain (NCP) with less intensive cultivation in the US High Plains (USHP) and associated effects on water resources using spatial datasets. Average crop yield during the past decade from intensive double cropping of wheat and corn in the NCP was only 15% higher than the yield from less intensive single cropping of corn in the USHP, although nitrogen fertilizer application and percent of cropland that was irrigated were both ∼2 times greater in the NCP than in the USHP. Irrigation and fertilization in both regions have depleted groundwater storage and resulted in widespread groundwater nitrate contamination. The limited response to intensive management in the NCP is attributed in part to the two month shorter growing season for corn to accommodate winter wheat than that for corn in the USHP. Previous field and modeling studies of crop yield in the NCP highlight over application of N and water resulting in low nitrogen and water use efficiencies and indicate that cultivars, plant densities, soil fertility and other factors had a much greater impact on crop yields over the past few decades. The NCP–USHP comparison along with previous field and modeling studies underscores the need to weigh the yield returns from intensive management relative to the negative impacts on water resources. Future crop management should consider the many factors that contribute to yield along with optimal fertilization and irrigation to further increase crop yields while reducing adverse impacts on water resources.

Duck populations as indicators of landscape condition in the Prairie Pothole Region.

The Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains is an important region for waterfowl production because of the abundance of shallow wetlands. The ecological significance of the region and impacts from intensive agriculture prompted the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to select it as one of the first areas for developing and evaluating ecological indicators of wetland condition. We examined hypothesized relations between indicators of landscape and wetland conditions and waterfowl abundance on 45 40 km2 study sites in North Dakota for 1995-1996. Landscape condition was defined a priori as the ratio of cropland area to total upland area surrounding wetlands. Measures of waterfowl abundance included estimated numbers of breeding pairs (by species and total numbers) and gamma, a species-specific correction factor which effectively adjusts breeding pair estimates for annual or area-related differences in pond size. Landscape indicators and waterfowl measures varied among regions. Results indicated that most areas in the Coteau region are of much higher quality for ducks than those in the Drift Plain, and areas in the Red River Valley are of the poorest quality for ducks. Regression models demonstrated the impact of agricultural development on breeding duck populations in the Prairie Pothole Region. The most consistent landscape indicators of waterfowl abundance were percent of cropland and grassland. Models were inconsistent among years and species. The potential biotic indicators of landscape and wetland condition examined here would be appropriate for temporal trend analyses, but because of inherent geographic variability would not be appropriate for single-year geographic trend analyses without more extensive evaluations to improve explanatory models.

Determinants of Farmland Values

Determinants of Farmland Values