Penetration Of Battery Electric Vehicles Research Articles

Investigating the effect of dynamic traffic distribution on network-wide traffic emissions: An empirical study in Ningbo, China.

Urban road traffic is one of the primary sources of carbon emissions. Previous studies have demonstrated the close relationship between traffic flow characteristics and carbon emissions (CO2). However, the impact of dynamic traffic distribution on carbon emissions is rarely empirically studied on the network level. To fill this gap, this study proposes a dynamic network carbon emissions estimation method. The network-level traffic emissions are estimated by combining macroscopic emission models and recent advances in dynamic network traffic flow modeling, namely, Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram. The impact of traffic distribution and the penetration of battery electric vehicles on total network emissions are further investigated using the Monte Carlo method. The results indicate the substantial effect of network traffic distribution on carbon emissions. Using the urban expressway network in Ningbo as an example, in the scenario of 100% internal combustion engine vehicles, increasing the standard deviation of link-level traffic density from 0 to 15 veh/km-ln can result in an 8.9% network capacity drop and a 15.5% reduction in network carbon emissions. This effect can be moderated as the penetration rate of battery electric vehicles increases. Based on the empirical and simulating evidence, different expressway pollution management strategies can be implemented, such as petrol vehicle restrictions, ramp metering, congestion pricing, and perimeter control strategies.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China

China's progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO2-eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.

Investigating the Role of Urban Vehicle Access Regulations as a Policy Tool for Promoting Electric Mobility in Budapest

To promote sustainable urban mobility and reduce environmental pollution, transportation policies worldwide aim to decrease reliance on fossil fuels. This requires reducing private car use through policy instruments such as urban vehicle access regulations (UVARs) and promoting alternative sustainable transport technologies such as electromobility. Considering that the deployment of such regulations and the market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is still low in Hungary, this study aimed to examine the willingness of urban dwellers in Budapest, Hungary, to adopt battery electric vehicles (BEVs) upon implementation of an UVAR measure. The study analysed the BEV adoption intention of 409 urban residents who participated in an UVAR study in 2022. The results show that age is a significant factor, with individuals aged 35–44 most likely to adopt BEVs. However, other socio-demographic characteristics did not significantly affect willingness to adopt BEVs. Additionally, pro-environmental behaviour or attitude did not significantly predict BEV adoption. Based on these findings, this study highlights the importance of considering multiple interrelated factors and provides policy insights for promoting sustainable transportation technology adoption.

A space–time-energy flow-based integer programming model to design and operate a regional shared automated electric vehicle (SAEV) system and corresponding charging network

Shared automated vehicles are expected to be part of the supply of transportation systems in the future. Parallel to this evolution, there is the rapid penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The limitations in battery capacity and charging speed of BEVs can influence the planning and operation of shared automated electric vehicle (SAEV) systems. The design of such systems needs to include these limitations so that their viability is properly estimated. In this paper, we develop a space–time-energy flow-based integer programming (IP) model in support of the strategic design of a regional SAEV system. The proposed approach optimizes the fleet (size and composition) and charging facilities (number and location), while explicitly accounting for vehicle operations in aggregated terms (including movements with users, relocations, and charging times). The model is used to assess the impact of vehicle range and different types of chargers in the optimal design of an interurban SAEV transport system in the center of Portugal. Results show a reduction in profit as the vehicle range increases. In regards to energy, it is observed that the adoption of long-range vehicles reduces the energy spent in relocations, and increases the amount of energy charged at a lower price. Additionally, it is found that a system with long-range vehicles does not take advantage of having fast chargers. Concerning the chargers’ optimal location, systems using short-range vehicles have more chargers close to the main commuter trips attracting cities, while systems with long-range vehicles have the chargers nearby the homes of users.

Reliability Assessment under High Penetration of EVs including V2G Strategy

With the increase in the penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) all over the world, utilities should start considering their increased demand as part of their electric demand. Generally, the literature lacks works that consider the impact of transportation electrification on the reliability of the power system. Thus, this paper proposes a new mechanism for reliability assessment including BEVs, with both grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) modes. Three charging strategies: uncontrolled, controlled unidirectional, and controlled bidirectional are considered in this paper to model the interactions between the transportation and electric power systems. A dynamic stochastic consumption model for a fleet of BEVs is developed to be used in the reliability assessment for the distribution networks. This dynamic model takes into consideration the variability and uncertainty of different trip purposes, starting and ending trip times, as well as the corresponding battery consumption in weather conditions. Furthermore, it is composed of two sequential submodels: travel behavior and battery depletion. The first submodel considers trip-related information while the second considers battery-depleted energy. Simulation results on a benchmark test system show the negative impacts of uncontrolled charging on the power system’s reliability. However, they also show that controlled charging can significantly reduce or mitigate these impacts.

Saving global platinum demand while achieving carbon neutrality in the passenger transport sector: linking material flow analysis with integrated assessment model

Securing the supply of platinum-group metals (PGMs) is crucial for the development of fuel cell vehicles (FCV), which are among the most promising low-carbon vehicle technologies in the future. Existing research has evaluated the worldwide demand and supply of platinum-group metals in this century with bottom-up models on the competing battery technologies for electric vehicles. However, it is important to evaluate the material efficiency for emission reduction if an aggressive transition towards net-zero carbon emissions is pursued at the global scale due to the geochemical scarcity of platinum-group metals on earth. This research aims to bridge this gap by linking the material flow analysis (MFA) and a bottom-up integrated assessment model, namely, the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development (IMED|TEC). Through this cutting-edge integrated approach and taking passenger cars as a case study, we attempt to evaluate the nexus between platinum and the emission reduction in CO2 in the use phase of cars under the progressive electrification scenarios towards carbon neutrality within half a century. The results show that the uneven market penetration of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles can lead to geographical disparity in supply and demands for platinum, which will reshape the world material flows. The material efficiency for emission reduction in the use stage of cars during the progressive adoption of carbon-neutral automotive technologies highly relies on the alignment of the recycling sector with the global automobile production network. Global coordination is needed to enhance the material efficiency for rare metals in the transition towards a carbon-neutral future.

Analysis and Prediction of Electromobility and Energy Supply by the Example of Stuttgart

This paper seeks to identify bottlenecks in the energy grid supply regarding different market penetration of battery electric vehicles in Stuttgart, Germany. First, medium-term forecasts of electric and hybrid vehicles and the corresponding charging infrastructure are issued from 2017 to 2030, resulting in a share of 27% electric vehicles by 2030 in the Stuttgart region. Next, interactions between electric vehicles and the local energy system in Stuttgart were examined, comparing different development scenarios in the mobility sector. Further, a travel demand model was used to generate charging profiles of electric vehicles under consideration of mobility patterns. The charging demand was combined with standard household load profiles and a load flow analysis of the peak hour was carried out for a quarter comprising 349 households. The simulation shows that a higher charging capacity can lead to a lower transformer utilization, as charging and household peak load may fall temporally apart. Finally, it was examined whether the existing infrastructure is suitable to meet future demand focusing on the transformer reserve capacity. Overall, the need for action is limited; only 10% of the approximately 560 sub-grids were identified as potential weak points.

Impact of electric vehicle charging – An agent‐based approach

Several European countries have launched programs to increase the market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEV). Similarly, politicians in Switzerland have targeted a 15% BEV share of new car registrations by 2022. As each electric car increases the power demand, new challenges are posed to the operation of existing distribution grid infrastructure. Here, a new bottom-up physical approach is presented that couples agent-based traffic simulations through an unsteady vehicle power consumption model with distribution grid power flow simulations. The impacts on hourly powerline loads from charging a car fleet with an 8.5% BEV share are quantified in the real distribution grid for the canton of Zurich. The grid is composed of 12,000 buses and 9,800 powerlines, providing power to 398,000 individual customers. Results indicate that the risk of overloaded powerlines is highest in low-level distribution grids. In our most critical future scenario, with simultaneous 8.5% BEV charging at 8 pm with 11 kW, peak line loads reach up to 132% of rated capacity. Hence, in a potential energy transition towards a decarbonised future, each individual distribution grid could face critical loads at specific temporal and spatial bottlenecks. Thus, grids should be assessed individually to limit uncertainties and risks of critical power system situations.

Do electric vehicles need subsidies in the UK?

We analyse the total cost of ownership of petrol, diesel, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles in the UK over 2017–2029. We do this for large, medium and small cars, under assumptions of 0%, 6%, 30% and 60% discount rates. We find that some electric car models from mass market brands are close to reaching cost parity with their petrol, diesel and hybrid counterparts, but subsidies would accelerate their uptake, especially for impatient consumers with high discount rates. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are not worth the effort because, although relatively low, their CO2 emissions are non-zero, and their purchase price is as high or even higher than that of battery electric vehicles. A subsidy of £4,500 or an exemption from the 20% VAT, perhaps capped at £4,500, would accelerate mass market penetration of battery electric vehicles in the UK. If decarbonising road transport were not as urgent as it is, the market for battery electric vehicles could be left to develop on its own, without government intervention. However, because the cost of batteries is not falling fast enough, subsidies are needed in the short term.

Extreme Fast Charging: The Current State of Understanding

Enabling fast charging between 10 to 15 minutes has been identified as one of the key challenges to facilitate rapid penetration of battery electric vehicles in the mass market. 1,2 Fast charging in 10 to 15-minute, however, could create multiple performance and safety consequences for the conventional graphite-based lithium ion batteries. Our earlier studies have identified the key bottlenecks of enabling extreme fast charging for a low loading (⁓2 mAhcm-2) cell (high power design).3–5 This presentation will discuss the effects of extreme fast charging on moderate loading cells (⁓3 mAhcm-2). The key cell limitations during such high rate charging will be revisited for moderately loaded graphite/NMC532 single layer pouch cells. The long-term performance and aging issues for 4C to 6C charging rates will be shown with experimental data. The identified dominating aging mechanisms will also be presented for the two different fast charging rates.The benefits of using different charging protocols, e.g., constant current- constant voltage and several multistep charging protocols will also be shown. Lastly, the opportunities and challenges of Li plating detection via electrochemical means will also be discussed.

Asymmetric preference and loss aversion for electric vehicles: The reference-dependent choice model capturing different preference directions

Greenhouse emissions from internal combustion engines have become a serious social issue. As of 2019, most vehicles in the South Korean car market have internal combustion engines. Although the South Korean government is adopting and implementing various policies to facilitate the penetration of battery electric vehicles (EVs) in the car market, its efforts have been in vain. Several studies on EV diffusion strategies have analyzed consumer preference for EVs using discrete choice experiments with virtual alternatives. However, they do not consider that consumers choose a new product based on the properties of products they already own; this aspect has a significant effect on consumer preferences and has several implications. Therefore, this study uses a discrete choice model with a reference point to investigate asymmetric consumer preferences for the major attributes of EVs and analyzes the related loss aversion parameters. The results are then used to conduct a sensitivity analysis for fuel efficiency and infrastructure attribute to explore which factor is more influential to consumers' EVs choice probability.

Traffic Simulation-Based Approach for A Cradle-to-Grave Greenhouse Gases Emission Model

This paper presents a model to evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq), of a generic fleet composition as a function of the traffic simulation results. First we evaluated the complete life cycle of each category of the vehicles currently circulating; next, by defining a general linear equation, the traffic environmental performances of a real road network (city of Rome) were evaluated using a traffic simulation approach. Finally, the proposed methodology was applied to evaluate the GHG emission of a 100% penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and various electric and conventional vehicles composition scenarios. In terms of life cycle impacts, BEVs are the vehicles with the highest GHG emissions at the vehicle level (construction + maintenance + end-of-life processes) that are, on average, 20% higher than internal combustion engine vehicles, and 6.5% higher than hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Nevertheless, a 100% BEVs penetration scenario generates a reduction of the environmental impact at the mobility system level of about 65%.

Strategies to achieve deep reductions in metropolitan transportation GHG emissions: the case of Philadelphia

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.

On the drivers of peak electricity demand: What is the role played by battery electric cars?

The analysis of the drivers of both peak electricity demand and renewable electricity generation constitutes the main objective of this paper. Data from 2010 to 2016 for a panel of 20 European Union countries were used. Two models were estimated using both Panel-Corrected Standard Errors and Driscoll-Kraay estimators with fixed effects. These estimators were robust in the presence of cross-section dependence, first-order serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. The main results suggest that renewable electricity generation and the penetration of battery electric vehicles into the automotive market are helping to decrease peak electricity demand. At the same time, it was confirmed that employment in this industry sector is increasing peak electricity demand. The existence of peak periods was shown to be the main barrier to the integration of renewables into electricity systems. It seems that policies focused on Demand Side Management have been effective in integrating renewables in contrast to their lack of success in reducing peak electricity demand.

The impact of future cities on commuting patterns: An agent-based approach

Over the next 35 years, the population of Switzerland is expected to grow by 25%. One possible way to accommodate this larger population is to transform smaller cities in Switzerland through the direct intervention of urban planners. In this work, we integrate agent-based simulation models of people flow, mobility and urban infrastructure with models of the electricity and gas systems to examine the increase of the density of existing residential zones and the creation of new workplaces and commercial activities in these urban areas. This novel simulation framework is used to assess, for the year 2050, two different scenarios of urbanization in a region with small urban areas. It is shown that a densification scenario, with a preference for multi-dwelling buildings, consumes 93% less land than a sprawl scenario, with a preference for single-family houses. The former scenario also accommodates 27% more people than the latter scenario, as there is a higher penetration of battery electric vehicles – and therefore reduced air pollution from the transportation sector – and also a larger shift of commuters to the use of public transport. However, in the former scenario, the commuting time is 20% longer. The outcome of this work demonstrates how this novel simulation framework can be used to support the formulation of policies that can direct the transformation of urban areas.

The Impact of China’s Electric Vehicle Subsidy Policy on the New Energy Automobile Industry—Based on the Research on the 5 Pilot Cities

In order to promote the market penetration of electric vehicles (EV), China launched the Electric Vehicle Subsidy Policy (EVSP) in Jan 2009, followed by the Local government subsidies for EV. In this paper, we focus on the impacts of the EVSP on the market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).We estimate effect of the EVSP offered by ShangHai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, HeFei, HangZhou government from 2011 to 2014.We find that the EVSP had a positive effect on the market share of BEV and PHEV. However, the A00 and A0 compact cars were crowded out as a result. On the basis of this, I hope to provide the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the government policy makers.

Modeling the CO2 emissions from battery electric vehicles given the power generation mixes of different countries

With the number of vehicles on the world’s roads expected to grow to 2.9 billion by 2050, steps must be taken to reduce the CO2 emissions from transport. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can help achieve this. This study aimed to determine the CO2 emissions stemming from BEV operation in different countries and to compare those CO2 emissions to the emissions from similar vehicles based on internal combustion engines (ICEs). This study selected four ICE-based vehicles, and modeled BEVs based on the specifications of each of these vehicles. The modeled BEVs were run through a simulation to determine their energy consumption. Their energy consumption was combined with data on the CO2 intensity of the power generation mix in different countries to reveal the emissions resulting from BEV operation. The CO2 emissions from the BEVs were compared to the CO2 emissions for their ICE-based counterparts. Amongst the results, it was shown that for China and India, and other countries with a similarly high CO2 intensity, unless power generation becomes dramatically less CO2 intensive, BEVs will not be able to deliver a meaningful decrease in CO2 emissions and an increase in the penetration of BEVs could actually lead to higher CO2 emissions.