Analysis and Prediction of Electromobility and Energy Supply by the Example of Stuttgart

Ralf Wörner,Daniela Schneider,Martin Neuburger,Markus Blesl,Inna Morozova,Alexandra Märtz,Christian Körner,Daniel Mayer,Danting Cao,Martin Kagerbauer,Patrick Jochem,Nadine Kostorz

doi:10.3390/wevj12020078

Abstract

This paper seeks to identify bottlenecks in the energy grid supply regarding different market penetration of battery electric vehicles in Stuttgart, Germany. First, medium-term forecasts of electric and hybrid vehicles and the corresponding charging infrastructure are issued from 2017 to 2030, resulting in a share of 27% electric vehicles by 2030 in the Stuttgart region. Next, interactions between electric vehicles and the local energy system in Stuttgart were examined, comparing different development scenarios in the mobility sector. Further, a travel demand model was used to generate charging profiles of electric vehicles under consideration of mobility patterns. The charging demand was combined with standard household load profiles and a load flow analysis of the peak hour was carried out for a quarter comprising 349 households. The simulation shows that a higher charging capacity can lead to a lower transformer utilization, as charging and household peak load may fall temporally apart. Finally, it was examined whether the existing infrastructure is suitable to meet future demand focusing on the transformer reserve capacity. Overall, the need for action is limited; only 10% of the approximately 560 sub-grids were identified as potential weak points.

Highlights

To achieve the emerging climate change targets and manage traffic volumes, alternative vehicle concepts such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are offered by the automobile industry and require new infrastructure for electrical energy supply related to customer demands
We argue for the need to adopt novel approaches for forecasting and analyzing the future impact of electric vehicles in urban areas and the related consequences for energy demand and grid stability
We investigate the effect of electric vehicle charging in terms of four key categories: market share forecasting, energy demand, charging profiles, and electrical distribution network

Summary

Introduction

To achieve the emerging climate change targets and manage traffic volumes, alternative vehicle concepts such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are offered by the automobile industry and require new infrastructure for electrical energy supply related to customer demands. The total vehicle fleet in Germany was analyzed, and the potential market diffusion of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (xEV) in the region Stuttgart in the year 2017 was estimated in our previous papers [12,13] This forecast is based on different current studies considering the European CO2 fleet emission targets The requirements for infrastructure, automobile manufacturers and electrification of road traffic are driven by the current legal framework of the European Union In urban centers, such as the Stuttgart region, a substantial increase in xEV is expected (around 480,000 xEV in 2030, corresponding to a share of approximately 30%). The energy system of Stuttgart will be analyzed, and the future impact of electrified road traffic on the energy grid energy network will be determined

Energy Demand in the Stuttgart Region

Analysis and Prognosis on Network Load in the City of Stuttgart

Findings

19. Verkehr in Kilometern der Deutschen Kraftfahrzeuge