Peak In Late March Research Articles

Syndromic surveillance: A key component of population health monitoring during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in France, February-June 2020.

The French syndromic surveillance (SyS) system, SurSaUD®, was one of the systems used to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak. This study described the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19-related visits to both emergency departments (EDs) and the network of emergency general practitioners known as SOS Médecins (SOSMed) in France from 17 February to 28 June 2020. Data on all visits to 634 EDs and 60 SOSMed associations were collected daily. COVID-19-related visits were identified using ICD-10 codes after coding recommendations were sent to all ED and SOSMed doctors. The time course of COVID-19-related visits was described by age group and region. During the lockdown period, the characteristics of ED and SOSMed visits and hospitalisations after visits were described by age group and gender. The most frequent diagnoses associated with COVID-19-related visits were analysed. COVID-19 SyS was implemented on 29 February and 4 March for EDs and SOSMed, respectively. A total of 170,113 ED and 59,087 SOSMed visits relating to COVID-19 were recorded, representing 4.0% and 5.6% of the overall coded activity with a peak in late March representing 22.5% and 25% of all ED and SOSMed visits, respectively. COVID-19-related visits were most frequently reported for women and those aged 15-64 years, although patients who were subsequently hospitalised were more often men and persons aged 65 years and older. SyS allowed for population health monitoring of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. As SyS has more than 15 years of historical data with high quality and reliability, it was considered sufficiently robust to contribute to defining the post-lockdown strategy.

Data-driven estimation of change points reveals correlation between face mask use and accelerated curtailing of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy

Background Italy was the first Western country to be seriously affected by COVID-19, and the first to implement drastic measures, which successfully curtailed the first wave of the epidemic. Methods To understand which containment measures altered disease dynamics, we estimated change points in COVID-19 dynamics from official Italian data. Results We found an excellent correlation between nationwide lockdown and the epidemic peak in late March 2020. Surprisingly, we found a change point in mid-April, which did not correspond to national measures, but may be explained by regional interventions. Change points in regional COVID-19 dynamics correlated well with local distribution of free face masks and regional orders requiring their mandatory use. Regions with no specific interventions showed no change point during April. Conclusions Our findings of the observed correlation between face mask use and disease dynamics lend further support to the importance of face masks in addition to lockdowns and other restrictions for the control of COVID-19.

Social Inequalities and Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from France

Background: Our main objective was to study the early social dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, taking into account gender, class, and ethnicity inequalities in living conditions.Methods: A random population-based survey was conducted in France in May 2020, during and post COVID-19 lockdown, in which 77,588 participants aged 18-64 were included in this study. We used multinomial regressions to identify changes in social position and exposure factors associated with symptoms of anosmia/ageusia during the first epidemic peak in late March and thereafter.Findings: In all, 2,045 (1.53% (95%CI 1.46%-1.61%)) participants reported anosmia/ageusia (1.13% during the epidemic peak and 0.40% after), with strong variations according to regions. Women and ethno-racial minorities remained at higher risk of anosmia/ageusia during and after the peak. Whereas senior executive professionals were more affected than lower social classes at the peak of the epidemic, this effect disappeared afterwards. Adjusting on key exposure factors substantially attenuated these associations, except for gender differences. While high density of the place of residence was associated with anosmia/ageusia during the peak, but no longer after, the opposite trend was observed for living in overcrowded housing. Having worked outside the home during lockdown was the most strongly associated exposure factor, and even more so after the peak.Interpretation: The shift in the social profile of the epidemic was related to a shift in exposure factors under the implementation of stringent collective prevention measures. Our results notably stress the importance of working outside the home, all the more so in essential occupations.Funding Statement: Inserm (Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale).French Ministry for Research. Drees. Dr. Bajos has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. [856478])Declaration of Interests: None.Ethics Approval Statement: The survey was approved by the CNIL (French independent administrative authority responsible for data protection) on April 25th 2020 (ref: MLD/MFI/AR205138) and by the “Comité de protection des personnes” (French equivalent of the Research Ethics Committee) on April 24th. The survey also obtained an agreement from the “Comité du Label de la statistique publique”, proving its adequacy to statistical quality standards.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: a two-stage interrupted time-series analysis.

BackgroundItaly was the first country outside China to experience the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a significant health burden. This study presents an analysis of the excess mortality across the 107 Italian provinces, stratified by sex, age group and period of the outbreak.MethodsThe analysis was performed using a two-stage interrupted time-series design using daily mortality data for the period January 2015–May 2020. In the first stage, we performed province-level quasi-Poisson regression models, with smooth functions to define a baseline risk while accounting for trends and weather conditions and to flexibly estimate the variation in excess risk during the outbreak. Estimates were pooled in the second stage using a mixed-effects multivariate meta-analysis.ResultsIn the period 15 February–15 May 2020, we estimated an excess of 47 490 [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCIs): 43 984 to 50 362] deaths in Italy, corresponding to an increase of 29.5% (95% eCI: 26.8 to 31.9%) from the expected mortality. The analysis indicates a strong geographical pattern, with the majority of excess deaths occurring in northern regions, where few provinces experienced increases up to 800% during the peak in late March. There were differences by sex, age and area both in the overall impact and in its temporal distribution.ConclusionThis study offers a detailed picture of excess mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. The strong geographical and temporal patterns can be related to the implementation of lockdown policies and multiple direct and indirect pathways in mortality risk.

Coccolithophore export in three deep-sea sites of the Aegean and Ionian Seas (Eastern Mediterranean): Biogeographical patterns and biogenic carbonate fluxes

Coccolithophore export fluxes were investigated via the analysis of sinking matter, obtained from Eastern Mediterranean time-series sediment traps moored in three open sites of the north-eastern Mediterranean Sea located in the Athos Basin of North Aegean (M2 site), Cretan Sea of South Aegean (M3 site) and at Ionian Sea (Nestor site). The aim of our study was to determine the spatial, temporal and seasonal variability in coccolithophore fluxes, as well as to estimate coccolith biogenic carbonate contribution to the sedimentation process. Data from an additional time-series sediment trap located in the southwestern Black Sea were also considered for the comparison of the oligotrophic Eastern Mediterranean setting with the eutrophic Black Sea. Coccolithophore fluxes revealed a highly seasonal pattern during February–March in the North Aegean (peak in late February 2015: 85.6 x 105 coccospheres m−2 day−1; 27.9 x 108 coccoliths m−2 day−1), during March–May in the Cretan Sea (peak in late March 2015: 33.7 x 105 coccospheres m−2 day−1; 19.5 x 108 coccoliths m−2 day−1) and during February–March and May–June in the Ionian Sea (peak in late May 2012: 14.3 x 105 coccospheres m−2 day−1; 1.53 x 108 coccoliths m−2 day−1). The recorded maxima coincide with low sea surface temperatures, increased precipitation and high PIC fluxes. Coccosphere fluxes were dominated by Emiliania huxleyi comprising ~70% of the total abundance, in the North Aegean and ~50% in the Cretan and Ionian Seas. Syracosphaera pulchra was also prominent in the study sites, where its abundance reached 14% in the North Aegean and ~10% in the Cretan and Ionian Seas respectively. Florisphaera profunda represented one of the major taxa in the coccolith fluxes of all three Eastern Mediterranean sites (~25% in North Aegean, ~20% in Cretan and Ionian Seas), while Algirosphaera robusta and Umbilicosphaera sibogae were the most abundant among the minor taxa. The North Aegean Sea exhibited a considerably higher coccolith flux when compared to other sediment traps due to the prominent seasonal peak of E. huxleyi during winter (February–March) (>95% of the total abundance). In contrast to the Eastern Mediterranean sediment traps, the time-series data from the Black Sea showed presence of monospecific E. huxleyi assemblage increasing its abundance during late September–November (max 320 x 105 coccospheres m−2 day−1; at least 7.79 x 108 coccoliths m−2 day−1, coccolith flux derived only from coccospheres converted to coccoliths). In the Eastern Mediterranean, biogenic carbonate fluxes followed the general pattern of the total mass flux in all investigated areas, with the Black Sea coccolithophore CaCO3 flux being the lowest due to low the E. huxleyi coccolith mass. Overall, in the North Aegean Sea, coccolithophore fluxes are strongly dependent on surface waters nutrients enrichment due to winter vertical water column mixing, riverine inputs and Black Sea water inflows, while the fertilization and/or formation of fast-sinking aggregates due to episodic dust input event are affecting the coccolithophore fluxes in the Cretan and Ionian Seas. The intercomparison of the coccolith export fluxes in the studied NE-SW mooring transects implies a north-south and east-west decreasing pattern, depending on the variable oceanographic regimes and the associated environmental factors controlling the investigated areas.

Modeling streamflow sensitivity to climate change in New York City water supply streams using a stochastic weather generator

Study regionThe New York City water supply watersheds Study focusThis study is a modeling analysis on climate change impact on streamflow using a stochastic weather generator (SWG), a hydrologic model, and downscaled future climate scenarios. Streamflow generated using synthetic time series of precipitation and air temperature from a SWG were compared to those simulated from observed historical and projected future weather. New hydrologic insights for the regionSynthetic weather was able to mimic the observed annual streamflow cycle for the six watersheds studied, including the seasonal pattern as well as magnitude and occurrence of extreme hydrologic events. Streamflow simulations using projected climate from 20 global climate models (GCM) for one of the New York City water supply watersheds indicate the potential for changes in the hydrologic regime in this region. The models indicate a shift in the timing of spring melt runoff from a distinct peak in late March and April under historical (1950–2009) conditions towards earlier in the year for mid-century (2041–2060) period. Results indicate that the region may experience an overall increase in mean streamflow in the future due to the combined effect of decreasing spring runoff peak and increasing streamflow during other seasons. More importantly, the magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrological events are projected to increase under future scenarios. These results have implications for future operation and management of the water supply.

Seasonality and Status of Nesting Hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and Green Turtles (Chelonia mydas) at D'Arros Island, Amirantes Group, Seychelles

Abstract We report on data collected during the first long-term turtle monitoring and conservation program conducted in the Amirantes Islands Group of Seychelles. Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) and hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting activity was recorded on a daily basis, year-round, over a period of 62 months between November 2004 and December 2009 at D'Arros Island, in the context of a community-based turtle monitoring and conservation program coordinated by the D'Arros Research Centre (DRC). Green turtle nesting occurred year-round with a distinct peak in late March but also evidence of a bimodal pattern with a dominant peak during February to April and a secondary peak in July and August. For hawksbills, nesting peaked in early December, with 94.0% of nesting emergences during the four-month interval from 1 October to 31 January. Along the 5-km nesting beach, the estimated average number of clutches laid annually was 95 for green turtles (range 65–120) and 300 (range 277–318) for hawksbills. As...

Seasonal changes in plasma thyroxine kinetics in coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch during smoltification

Growth-accelerated yearling coho salmon smolts, weighing approximately 200 g, were collected in spring and cannulated via the dorsal aorta; they were held individually in containers during the process. A cannula was connected outside the container with a syringe, and the fish received an intra-arterial injection of 13.3 ng/g body weight thyroxine (T4). A group of growth-accelerated smolts weighing more than 190 g were used as control fish. Another group of normal body-sized fish was monitored smoltification parameters through the parr–smolt transformation to evaluate the validity of the growth-accelerated smolts. Although condition factor (CF) of the growth-accelerated smolts decreased from February to March, it did not change afterward until a significant increase in July. The plasma T4 levels increased from February to a peak in late April and decreased thereafter. Gill Na+, K+–ATPase activity showed a peak in late June. According to the smolt parameters, the smoltification developed from March and desmoltfied in July. Peak levels of plasma T4 1 min after the T4 injection were lower during mid smolt stage than those at the beginning and end of smoltification. The T4 metabolic clearance rate (MCR) increased rapidly and attained a peak in late March, and decreased thereafter when the plasma T4 level was at the peak. The T4 secretion rate exhibited also a peak in late March with a tendency to decrease afterward, similar to the MCR. These results indicate that the highest MCR of circulating T4 appears in the early stage of smoltification when plasma T4 level is still low, and MCR lowers when the fish reach the full smolt stage. In the full smolt stage, the increased circulating T4 at the period of T4 surge is the result of the lower T4 metabolism.

Spring Emergence and Seasonal Flight ofDelia radicumL. (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) in Western Oregon

Abstract Field research was conducted to describe and characterize spring emergence and seasonal flight activity of the cabbage maggot, Delia radicum L. (Diptera: Anthomyiidae), in relationship to degree-day accumulations. Turnip and rutabaga fields were monitored in the northern Willamette Valley in western Oregon from 2001 through 2004. Spring emergence from overwintering puparia was monitored using emergence cages. A bimodal spring emergence pattern was observed, with ≈70% of the spring population emerging in an early peak in late March, 2 mo before a later peak near the end of May. The mean degree-day accumulations at 10, 50, and 95% of spring emergence using a lower and upper developmental threshold of 4.3 and 30°C beginning 1 January had corresponding degree-day values of 200 ± 50.2 (8 March), 330 ± 22.2 (4 April), and 762 ± 60.1 (28 May), respectively. Seasonal flight activity was monitored using yellow water traps. Spring flight patterns mirrored the bimodal emergence patterns but with a delay of ...

Seasonal occurrence of marine mussel plantigrades in Tokyo harbor.

A large bed of marine mussel, Mytilus edulis galloprovincialis LAMARCK, has formed in the intertidal zone of Tokyo Bay. In studying the ecology of the mussel in Tokyo Bay, the seasonal occurrence of planktonic larvae an the settlement of young mussels were investigated. Hydrozoa was used as a natural substratum. As an artificial substratum, a rope collector made of filaments of vinilon rope was used. Planktonic larvae appeared all through the year except during the season from late June to September, with the peak in late March. The kinetics of settlement on hydrozoa and the rope collector was almost the same as that of the appearance of planktonic larvae, with the peak in late April. A few settlements were observed on the hydrozoa and the rope collector during the summer. Most settlements on the rope collector were observed at a depth of 2m below CD. As a substratum for primary settlement, the rope collector seems to be very useful for monitoring the seasonal occurrence of young mussels.

Hill country sheep production

Abstract Data from 484 6-year-old ewes over the period 1969 to 1971 were used to study the effects of flock and vear on oestrous incidence and ovulation rate at first, third, and fifth oestrus. The sheep were from two straightbred Romney (RCR, RER) and first-cross (Ft), secondcross (F2), and third-cross (F3) Border Leicester Х Romney flocks that had been grazed together from birth at the Whatawhata Hill Country Research Station. Oestrous activity extended from early March, the proportion of ewes showing oestrus increasing rapidly to a peak in late March, then declining after mid June. There were no differences between flocks in oestrous activity. Total ovulations observed over the first plus third oestruses were 2.5,2.6, 3.1,2.9, and 3.1, and over the first plus third plus fifth oestruses were 3.7, 3.9,4.6. 4.3, and 4.7 respectively for the RCR, RER, F1 , F2, and Fa flocks. These were related to the number of lambs born per lambing over the previous four lambings (2- to 5-year-old), and to pre-tupping live weights.

Breeding of the Woodcock in Britain

The Woodcock has a protracted breeding season, with a peak in late March, and about two-thirds of the nests found are successful. This and other information is drawn together here from a study of the B.T .0. nest record cards.