Peak CO2 Emissions Research Articles

Method for rapid mineralization of CO2 with carbide slag in the constant-pressure and continuous-feed way and its reaction heat

Grouting filling materials into a goaf is a necessary step for goaf disaster prevention and control. This study is aimed at developing a process and method of rapid and low-cost CO2 mineralization with alkaline waste. The effects of various factors, including stirring speed, pressure, solid-liquid ratio and slurry entry speed, on mineralization degree and reaction heat extraction during the mineralization process in the constant-pressure and continuous-feed way were investigated through experiments and numerical simulations. Besides, costs in the whole mineralization process were analyzed. The following conclusions were drawn: The mineralization degree exceeds 80% in the constant-pressure and continuous-feed way, and the CO2 sequestration capacity of carbide slag reaches 0.47 g/g. In addition, the equation of the cost of CO2 emission reduction was established. This study offers a novel and low-cost carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology route that can accelerate the realization of peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality.

A Hypothetical Extraction Method Decomposition of Intersectoral and Interprovincial CO2 Emission Linkages of China’s Construction Industry

Understanding the complex CO2 emissions in inter-sectoral and interregional interactions of the construction industry is significant to attaining sustainability in China. Many previous studies focused on aggregating the construction sector’s CO2 emissions on a national level, with the provincial characteristics and interactions often overlooked. Using extended environmental input–output tables, we adopted a hypothetical extraction method combined with extended-environmental multi-regional input–output tables for 2012, 2015, and 2017 data to decompose the CO2 emissions linkages in 30 provincial construction sectors. The provincial carbon emissions data from a complete system boundary informed the recategorization of China’s construction sector as a high-carbon-intensity industry. The interprovincial interactions results show relatively small backward CO2 emissions linkages compared to forward CO2 emissions linkages depicting the industry’s significant role in China’s economic growth and an essential target in CO2 emissions reduction plans. The provinces exhibited different impacts on the directional push–pull, with less developed provinces having one-way directional effects. The more developed provincial sectors behaved more like demand-driven industries creating an overall imbalance in CO2 emissions interaction between the sectors in interregional emission trades. We identified construction sectors in Gansu, Xingjian, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia as the most critical, with more significant CO2 emissions interactions than other provinces. Improving the technical level in less developed provincial construction sectors, considering provincial characteristics in policy formulation, and a swift shift to renewable energy as a primary energy source would aid in reducing the emissions intensities in the construction sector, especially in the less developed provinces, and achieving China’s quest to reach a CO2 emissions peak by 2030.

Recent Progress in Materials Exploration for Thermocatalytic, Photocatalytic, and Integrated Photothermocatalytic CO2‐to‐Fuel Conversion

The excess depletion of carbon‐rich fossil fuels and agroforest biomass resources has aggravated the energy crisis and environmental pollution, causing increased CO2 emissions. Accordingly, the goal of “peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality” is proposed to alleviate global warming. CO2‐to‐fuel conversion is considered as a preferable move for reducing the atmospheric CO2 concentration and further upgrading to chemical feedstocks. However, the highly efficient CO2 conversion remains challenging due to the thermodynamic limits and kinetic barriers, which require high energy input through conventional thermocatalysis. Inspired by “artificial photosynthesis,” photocatalytic CO2 transformation has received tremendous attention and makes remarkable progress over the past decades, although it is still far from practical application. Recently, the integrated photothermocatalysis has emerged as an intelligent strategy to utilize solar energy to induce local heating and energetic hot carriers, which synergistically promote CO2‐to‐fuel conversion. The key to the success of CO2 upgradation is catalysts’ development with improved activity, selectivity, and stability. This review highlights the recent advancements in materials designing for practical CO2 conversion through thermocatalysis, photocatalysis, and photothermocatalysis during the past five years, emphasizing the reaction pathways and mechanism on the CO bond activation and intermediates formation. Finally, the current challenges and future opportunities are described.

Potential and characteristics of bio-H2 production from brewery wastewater by a maltose-preferring butyrate-type producer: Investigation in batch and semi-continuous cultures

In the context of "Peak CO2 emissions & Carbon neutrality", H2 energy, as the green and clean energy, will make an important contribution to the carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization. Bio-H2 production from organic wastewater achieved not only pollutants removal, but also the H2 energy recovery and carbon emission reduction. In this study, a maltose-preferring producer of Clostridium butyricum NH-02 was investigated for the potential and performance of bio-H2 production from brewery wastewater in batch and semi-continuous fermentation. Appropriate initial pH 7.0 and organic loading of 21,173mg/L chemical oxygen demand (COD) (2670mg/L reducing sugar (RS)) stimulated the batch H2 fermentation efficiency with a maximum H2 yield of 1.89mol-H2/mol-RS and cumulative H2 production of 479.3mL/L. Comparing to the batch fermentation, semi-continuous fermentation showed significant improvement in H2 productivity and yield. The maximum cumulative H2 yield of 5.21mol-H2/mol-RS and production of 254.78mL were obtained with the optimal hydraulic retention time (HRT) at 47h after a 120h fermentation. This study demonstrated the potential of H2 production from brewery wastewater with C. butyricum, and a great improvement in H2 production in semi-continuous fermentation.

Analysis of China's urban household indirect carbon emissions drivers under the background of population aging

Population aging is an important concern not only in China but also to many developed countries, and it will be a more serious issue throughout the world in the future. From this point, understanding the impact of population aging on CO2 emissions is important for achieving carbon neutral in the future. To analyze this impact, this study quantifies lifestyle and urban household's consumption impacts upon carbon emissions from the indirect CO2 emissions aspect and uses the structural decomposition method to analyze the factors influencing the growth of indirect CO2 emissions from 2007 to 2012. The analysis results indicate that the indirect CO2 emissions peak at 20 s age group and gradually decline as age increases. Since elderly households have relatively lower indirect CO2 emissions, population aging in the future will reduce indirect CO2 emissions. The decomposition analysis for indirect CO2 emissions shows that the effects of changes in consumption pattern and production technology progress reduced indirect CO2 emissions to a large extent. The main factors leading to the increase in indirect CO2 emissions are the increase in the number of households and consumption volume. The corresponding policy implications are proposed based on our findings: improving energy efficiency in older households, promoting energy conservation promotion among younger households, and cultivating consumers’ green-consumption awareness.

China's green deal: Can China's cement industry achieve carbon neutral emissions by 2060?

The cement industry emits 8% of global CO2 emissions. Representing over 50% of these emissions, China's Cement Industry (CCI) will play a key role towards achieving CO2 emission peak and Carbon neutrality. This study designed a bottom-up Green Transition Roadmap model to assess the feasibility of China's newly proposed goal – achieve Carbon neutrality by 2060. Six emission abatement measures are explored under three scenarios based on green transition policies. Random sampling of uncertainty factors is also performed to investigate their effects on decarbonization roadmaps. Finally, GAINS model and abatement cost curves are used to monetize decarbonization co-benefits. Results show that: (1) Achieving Carbon neutrality in CCI by 2060 is ambitious but possible under advanced and aggressive abatement scenarios, with a net cumulative cost of 279–345 billion CNY after deducing monetized co-benefits; (2) Uncertainties significantly upset decarbonization roadmapsas it takes an additional 4–6 years to achieve the same emission reductions compared to deterministic scenarios; (3) Circular economy should be prioritized in the roadmap since it is least costly and contributes 33.6% of CO2 emission abatement; (4) From 52-technologies assessed, 10-technologies account for 75% of abatement potential brought by advanced efficiency technology measure. Most are calcination process technologies, reflecting the urgency to target this emission intensive process; (5) Realizing Carbon neutrality brings huge co-benefits in energy saving and pollutant reduction. Specifically, fossil energy, PM, NOx and SO2 intensities drop by 65%, 48%, 64% and 92% in 2060 respectively. Therefore, policy-makers can resort to deep decarbonization to reach stringent air pollution standards.

Can Compulsory Ecological Compensation for Land Damaged by Mining Activities Mitigate CO2 Emissions in China?

Chinese government has proposed a national contribution plan that involves achieving the peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. To explore the pathway of achieving carbon neutrality, we tried to use resources taxes and land reclamation deposits as compulsory ecological compensation (CEC). In order to test if CEC can affect CO2 emissions, energy intensity was selected as the intermediate variable. We found that the CO2 emissions trend in China is consistent with environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and proved that CEC displayed a spillover effect on energy intensity. Likely, energy intensity presented a spillover effect on CO2 emissions. Therefore, CEC will spatially affect CO2 emissions. The generalized spatial two-stage least-squares estimate model was used to identify the impact mechanism of coal production on energy intensity with CEC as the instrumental variable. The results indicated that reducing coal production in neighboring regions may cause the mitigation of local CO2 emissions. Finally, regression analyses carried out by region suggested regional cooperation should be carried out in the process of carbon mitigation.

Critical Review of Solidification of Sandy Soil by Microbially Induced Carbonate Precipitation (MICP)

Microbially induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) is a promising technology for solidifying sandy soil, ground improvement, repairing concrete cracks, and remediation of polluted land. By solidifying sand into soil capable of growing shrubs, MICP can facilitate peak and neutralization of CO2 emissions because each square meter of shrub can absorb 253.1 grams of CO2 per year. In this paper, based on the critical review of the microbial sources of solidified sandy soil, models used to predict the process of sand solidification and factors controlling the MICP process, current problems in microbial sand solidification are analyzed and future research directions, ideas and suggestions for the further study and application of MICP are provided. The following topics are considered worthy of study: (1) MICP methods for evenly distributing CaCO3 deposit; (2) minimizing NH4+ production during MICP; (3) mixed fermentation and interaction of internal and exogenous urea-producing bacteria; (4) MICP technology for field application under harsh conditions; (5) a hybrid solidification method by combining MICP with traditional sand barrier and chemical sand consolidation; and (6) numerical model to simulate the erosion resistance of sand treated by MICP.

Challenges for China to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peak goals: Beijing case study.

China has set a goal to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China needs to address the challenge of the large and still growing CO2 emission base. This paper investigated the energy consumption and CO2 emission in Beijing from 2020–2035 based on the energy elasticity coefficient and contribution value of the sub-energy increment (CVSI) method. Beijing is one of the first cities in China to propose the "carbon peak” target as of 2020. From 2020 Beijing will strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. The results show that in 2035 the CO2 emission in Beijing may drop to 50% of 2020. This decline would be affected by economic growth, energy efficiency and the proportion of renewable energy use. Beijing’s energy supply mainly comes from outside the region. Therefore, for Beijing, in addition to increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources outside the region, its own energy acceptance also needs to be strengthened, including strengthening energy storage construction, actively researching and promoting carbon capture and utilization of gas-fired units, which are effective ways to achieve carbon neutrality target.

Scenario simulations for the peak of provincial household CO2 emissions in China based on the STIRPAT model

As household CO2 emissions (HCEs) are a key source of China's CO2 emissions, exploring the mitigation potential of HCEs is significant to achieve China's 2030 emission target. However, rare literatures analyzed the future evolution of HCEs from the provincial perspective. Here, we employ the STIRPAT model and build three scenarios (i.e., baseline, low and high scenarios) to investigate the trajectories and peak times of HCEs in 30 provinces up to 2040. The results show that 25 provinces can peak HCEs before 2030 in at least one scenario, while 5 provinces cannot achieve the 2030 emission target in any scenarios. Moreover, Guangxi and Hainan will maintain growth up to 2040 in all three scenarios. At the national level, China's household sector can achieve HCEs peak in all three scenarios. Further reduction of emission intensity helps national HCEs reach the peak around 2025 in the high scenario at 1063 MtCO2. The findings suggest that Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Henan, Zhejiang and Anhui are key provinces for future HCEs reductions, because they account for more than 40% of national HCEs in 2040 in all three scenarios. Energy efficiency improvement and clean energy applications will be effective for emission reductions.

Downscaling Building Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions by Machine Learning

The rapid rate of urbanization is causing increasing annual urban energy usage, drastic energy shortages, and pollution. Building operational energy consumption carbon emissions (BECCE) account for a substantial proportion of greenhouse gas emissions, crucially influencing global warming and the sustainability of urban socioeconomic development. As a foundation of building energy conservation, determination of refined statistics of BECCE is attracting increasing attention. However, reliable and accurate representation of BECCE remains lacking. This study proposed an innovative downscaling method to generate a gridded BECCE intensity benchmark dataset with 1 km2 spatial resolution. First, we calculated BECCE at the provincial level by energy balance table application. Second, on the basis of building climate demarcation, partial least squares regression models were used to establish the BECCE behavior equations for three climate regions. Third, Cubist regression models were built, retrieving down scale at the prefecture level to 1 km2 BECCE, which well-captured the complex relationships between BECCE and multisource covariates (i.e., gross domestic product, population, ground surface temperature, heating degree days, and cooling degree days). The downscaled product was verified using anthropogenic heat flux mapping at the same resolution. In comparison with other published pixel-based datasets of building energy usage, the gridded BECCE intensity map produced in this study showed good agreement and high spatial heterogeneity. This new BECCE intensity dataset could serve as a fundamental database for studies on building energy conservation and forecast carbon emissions, and could support decision makers in developing strategies for realizing the CO2 emission peak and carbon neutralization.

Future CO2 emission trends and radical decarbonization path of iron and steel industry in China

China has set new ambitious national determined contributions (NDC) target to reach the peak of CO2 emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This urges radical efforts for all industries to neutralize or zeroize their CO2 emission, especially for the iron and steel industry. Here, we establish a comprehensive model to explore the potential CO2 emission pathways of China's iron and steel industry based on NDC and climate target in line with the Paris Agreement. Four scenarios are constructed: business as usual (BAU), NDC, 2-degree, and 1.5-degree. We predict the total CO2 emission from 2015 to 2050 will fall from 1690.82 Mt to 1475.75 Mt, 1249.39 Mt, 484.77 Mt, and 252.13 Mt under those four scenarios, respectively. To achieve 2-degree and 1.5-degree targets, iron and steel industry requires radical decarbonization. To explore the key factors behind the carbon neutrality of steel production, we apply Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) for the 1.5-degree scenario and find that steel production, breakthrough technologies and production structure will become the important factors. To effectively evaluate the CO2 emissions of steel production, we have set up a CO2 emission evaluation indicator system including comprehensive CO2 emission indicator, crude steel CO2 emission indicator, and section CO2 emission indicator. CSC model shows that low discount rates and high carbon prices will make low-carbon technologies cost-beneficial. Accordingly, we further discuss the potential barriers and strategies related to hydrogen steelmaking, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and electricity generation structure revolution to the iron and steel industry.

Analysis of the Financing Structure of China’s Listed New Energy Companies under the Goal of Peak CO2 Emissions and Carbon Neutrality

Under China’s “Dual Carbon” strategic goal, electric energy substitution on the energy consumption side and clean substitution on the energy supply side have become an important path to achieve peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality. Adjusting the energy structure and encouraging new energy to replace traditional energy is an important manifestation of China’s energy supply revolution. Therefore, China’s new energy companies have grown rapidly over the past decade. The development and growth of this industry is inseparable from government policy support. The profitability and economy are essential for the new energy industry to support its sustainable development., especially the choice of business models such as operation model and financing structures. Therefore, we build extended panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models with two-step system GMM(SYS-GMM) estimator which introduced predetermined and strictly exogenous variables to explore the dynamic correlation between financing structure and economic performance of China’s new energy public companies. The number of patent approvals and financial leverage are introduced as exogenous control variables. The results show that although the increase in costs caused by financing behavior will have a negative impact on the company’s return on equity in the short term, with the rational investment and utilization of funds, the negative impact will gradually weaken. Listed new energy companies can effectively use financing funds, and the use of different financing tools has different effects on company performance. Although debt financing can help promote the company’s profitability, it is detrimental to its future growth capacity.

Lowering the Carbon Emissions Peak and Accelerating the Transition Towards Net Zero Carbon

China’s declaration to the international community to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 is of great significance in advancing the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and has a positive and far-reaching impact on China’s high-quality development. This paper expounds on responsibilities and ambitions in tackling climate change, analyzes the high-quality development opportunities brought about by CO2 emissions peak and carbon neutrality, and discusses the net zero carbon emissions transformation in the new era of ecological civilization. This paper is of the view that development towards net zero carbon emissions provides a new impetus for building a Beautiful China, and promoting ecological civilization and green development. The essence of carbon neutrality should be correctly understood so that the world will work together to improve climate resilience. China should also deepen the understanding of the principles and methodologies of climate change economics.

The sustainability assessment of CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and the conversion of cropland to forestland program (CCFP) in the Water\u2013Energy\u2013Food (WEF) framework towards China\u2019s carbon neutrality by 2060

The global warming induced by the emission of greenhouse gases, especially the carbon dioxide, has become the global climate and environmental issues. China has been working in the CO2 emission reduction and carbon sinks with the purpose of becoming the carbon-neutral country by 2060. The CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies and the reforestation technology represented by the Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program (CCFP) have great potential for sinking CO2 emission. However, the trade-off among CCFP, CCS/CCUS and Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus are not well evaluated. In this paper, the remote-sensing data are collected and used to evaluate the sustainability of CCFP by analyzing the variation of land use and land cover (LULC), crop production, etc. The results show that 13.29% of the cropland in 2001 vanished and converted to grassland (8.3%), mosaic cropland (3%) and urban land (0.98%) in 2019, demonstrating that the CCFP is successful in both WEF nexus and carbon sink. The total crop production has increased around 50% between 2001 and 2019, implying that the CCFP will not lead to the food risk during the conversion of croplands into other types of land in China. A sustainable implementation of CCFP and other environmental Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) policies in 2019–2060 could reach an estimated total growth of 7.462 billion m3 in comparison of that in 2018 and the total plantation forest stock of about 10.852 billion m3 in 2060, with a corresponding minimum CO2 sink of 2.90 billion tons in 2060. The estimated peak of net equivalent CO2 emissions before 2030 is about 11.0 billion tons and could not be reduced to zero by 2060 without the large-scale application of the CCS/CCUS technologies as geological sequestration of CO2. Besides, the application of CCS/CCUS can be beneficial for WEF, e.g., through replacing the water by CO2 during energy production, especially in the shale gas production in the regions with high water risks in China. In one word, CCS/CCUS and CCFP are two decided pathways of carbon sequestration and should be systematically applied to achieve China’s carbon neutrality by 2060.

Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China’s recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge

As the largest emitter in the world, China recently pledged to reach a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, which could accelerate the progress of mitigating negative climate change effects. In this study, we used the Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator and a semi-empirical statistical model to quantify the global mean temperature and sea-level rise (SLR) response under a suite of emission pathways that are constructed to cover various carbon peak and carbon neutrality years in China. The results show that China will require a carbon emission reduction rate of no less than 6%/year and a growth rate of more than 10%/year for carbon capture capacity to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Carbon peak years and peak emissions contribute significantly to mitigating climate change in the near term, while carbon neutrality years are more influential in the long term. Mitigation due to recent China’s pledge alone will contribute a 0.16 °C–0.21 °C avoided warming at 2100 and also lessen the cumulative warming above 1.5 °C level. When accompanied by coordinated international efforts to reach global carbon neutrality before 2070, the 2 °C target can be achieved. However, the 1.5 °C target requires additional efforts, such as global scale adoption of negative emission technology for CO2, as well as a deep cut in non-CO2 GHG emissions. Collectively, the efforts of adopting negative emission technolgy and curbing all greenhouse gas emissions will reduce global warming by 0.9 °C −1.2 °C at 2100, and also reduce SLR by 49–59 cm in 2200, compared to a baseline mitigation pathway already aiming at 2 °C. Our findings suggest that while China’s ambitious carbon-neutral pledge contributes to Paris Agreement’s targets, additional major efforts will be needed, such as reaching an earlier and lower CO2 emission peak, developing negative emission technology for CO2, and cutting other non-CO2 GHGs such as N2O, CH4, O3, and HFCs.

Energy–Water–CO2 Synergetic Optimization Based on a Mixed-Integer Linear Resource Planning Model Concerning the Demand Side Management in Beijing’s Power Structure Transformation

Studies on the energy–water–CO2 synergetic relationship is an effective way to help achieve the peak CO2 emission target and carbon neutral goal in global countries. One of the most valid way is to adjust through the electric power structure transformation. In this study, a mixed-integer linear resource planning model is proposed to investigate the energy–water–CO2 synergetic optimization relationship, concerning the uncertainties in the fuel price and power demand prediction process. Coupled with multiple CO2 emissions and water policy scenarios, Beijing, the capital city of China, is chosen as a case study. Results indicate that the demand-side management (DSM) level and the stricter environmental constraints can effectively push Beijing’s power supply system in a much cleaner direction. The energy–water–CO2 relationship will reach a better balance under stricter environmental constraints and higher DSM level. However, the achievement of the energy–water–CO2 synergetic optimization will be at an expense of high system cost. Decision makers should adjust their strategies flexibly based on the practical planning situations.

High-resolution and multi-year estimation of emissions from open biomass burning in Northeast China during 2001–2017

Open biomass burning (OBB) significantly impacts regional and global air quality, climate change, and human health. Northeast China (NEC) is susceptible to OBB, including forest, shrubland, grassland, peatland, and cropland burning. Here, we develop a high-resolution (1 km × 1 km), multi-year (2001–2017), and monthly emission inventory associated with OBB in NEC using the burned area product (MCD64A1), satellite and observational biomass data, vegetation index-derived spatiotemporal variable combustion efficiency, and emission factors. The emissions produced from the burning of 11 types of crop-residues were calculated using measured and MODIS fire radiative power (FRP) data. The results showed that the average annual OBB emissions in NEC for 2001–2017 were 23.4, 95.1, 1538.0, 30,816.8, 18.8, 258.5, 69.8, 133.7, 225.3, 321.8, and 11.3 Gg of BC, CH4, CO, CO2, NH3, NMVOC, NOx, OC, PM2.5, PM10, and SO2, respectively. Taking CO2 as an example, crop residue burning was observed to be the largest contributor of CO2 overall, accounting for 68% (20.9 × 103 Gg a−1) of the total CO2 emissions, which was followed by forest (30%) and grassland (2%) fires. Heilongjiang Province was the largest emitter of CO2 (16.7 × 103 Gg a−1) compared to Jilin (5.8 × 103 Gg a−1), Inner Mongolia (5.3 × 103 Gg a−1), and Liaoning (3.0 × 103 Gg a−1). Crop residue burning was dominant in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, while forest fires were dominant in Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, CO2 emissions showed considerable interannual variability, with peaks in 2003 and 2008. Extensive burning of crop residues in the four provinces jointly determined these peak CO2 emissions, which occurred in March and October. Our high-resolution and multi-year inventory of OBB emissions can be applied to air quality modeling, atmospheric transport simulation, and biogeochemical cycling studies.

Inter-provincial sectoral embodied CO2 net-transfer analysis in China based on hypothetical extraction method and complex network analysis

To address the CO2 emissions issue, China promised to increase its nationally determined contributions, trying to reach a CO2 emissions peak by 2030. For optimizing emission reduction policies, it is important to clarify the CO2 linkage structure and transfer characteristics. Previous research mainly focused on the calculation and comparison of CO2 linkage at the national level or the regional level and lacked inter-provincial sector-sector transfer analysis. This study uses hypothetical extraction method (HEM) to calculate the inter-provincial sectoral linkages of embodied CO2 in 2012 and 2015, providing a new perspective for sectoral CO2 linkage studies in China. We use net transfer to reveal the impact of provincial trade on the embodied CO2 emissions, and identify key CO2 emitter sectors. Combined with complex networks, we describe the clustering feature visualized and identify the transfer media sectors. The results are as follows: (1) the key sectors with large linkage are mainly the heavy industries located in North China. The electricity industry has the largest net CO2 outflow as the energy supplier, whereas the construction industry has the largest net inflow as the driving sector. (2) The CO2 transfer networks present closely connected and spatial clustering features, reflecting the embodied CO2 linkage between geographically adjacent sectors closer. (3) The important media sectors are mostly located in northwest China with small industrial scale and linkage degrees, such as the transport equipment industry in Shanxi. Emission reduction policies should be overall planned and tailored to local conditions. Consequently, possible policy implications of the results are discussed, which could provide additional insights for CO2 mitigation.

Industrial Structure Optimization and Low-Carbon Transformation of Chinese Industry Based on the Forcing Mechanism of CO2 Emission Peak Target

The setting of a CO2 emission peak target (CEPT) will have a profound impact on Chinese industry. An objective assessment of this impact is of great significance, both for understanding/applying the forcing mechanism of CEPT, and for promoting the optimization of China’s industrial structure and the low-carbon transformation of Chinese industry at a lower cost. Based on analysis of the internal logic and operation of the forcing mechanism of CEPT, we employed the STIRPAT model. This enabled us to predict the peak path of China’s CO2 emissions, select the path values that would achieve the CEPT with the year 2030 as the constraint condition, construct a multi-objective and multi-constraint input/output optimization model, employ the genetic algorithm to solve the model, and explore the industrial structure optimization and low-carbon transformation of Chinese industry. The results showed that the setting of CEPT will have a significant suppression effect on high-carbon emission industries and a strong boosting effect on low-carbon emission industries. The intensity of the effect is positively correlated with the target intensity of the CO2 emissions peak. Under the effect of the forcing mechanism of CEPT, Chinese industry can realize a low-carbon transition and the industrial structure can realize optimization. The CEPT is in line with sustainable development goals, but the setting of CEPT may risk causing excessive shrinkage of basic industries—which should be prevented.