Choice Patterns Research Articles

Value construction through sequential sampling explains serial dependencies in decision making.

Many decisions are expressed as a preference for one item over another. When these items are familiar, it is often assumed that the decision maker assigns a value to each of the items and chooses the item with the highest value. These values may be imperfectly recalled, but are assumed to be stable over the course of an interview or psychological experiment. Choices that are inconsistent with a stated valuation are thought to occur because of unspecified noise that corrupts the neural representation of value. Assuming that the noise is uncorrelated over time, the pattern of choices and response times in value-based decisions are modeled within the framework of Bounded Evidence Accumulation (BEA), similar to that used in perceptual decision-making. In BEA, noisy evidence samples accumulate over time until the accumulated evidence for one of the options reaches a threshold. Here, we argue that the assumption of temporally uncorrelated noise, while reasonable for perceptual decisions, is not reasonable for value-based decisions. Subjective values depend on the internal state of the decision maker, including their desires, needs, priorities, attentional state, and goals. These internal states may change over time, or undergo revaluation, as will the subjective values. We reasoned that these hypothetical value changes should be detectable in the pattern of choices made over a sequence of decisions. We reanalyzed data from a well-studied task in which participants were presented with pairs of snacks and asked to choose the one they preferred. Using a novel algorithm ( Reval ), we show that the subjective value of the items changes significantly during a short experimental session (about 1 hour). Values derived with Reval explain choice and response time better than explicitly stated values. They also better explain the BOLD signal in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, known to represent the value of decision alternatives. Revaluation is also observed in a BEA model in which successive evidence samples are not assumed to be independent. We argue that revaluation is a consequence of the process by which values are constructed during deliberation to resolve preference choices.

Patient Preferences for Attributes of Androgen Deprivation Therapies in Prostate Cancer: A Discrete Choice Experiment with Latent Class Analysis.

Medical androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) options have expanded for patients with advanced prostate cancer (PC). Historically, ADT was primarily available in long-acting injectable formulations. In 2020, the first oral formulation was US Food and Drug Administration-approved for adults with advanced PC. This study's aim was to assess patient preferences for attributes of medical ADT, including mode of administration, side effects, impact on sexual interest, and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs, and to segment respondents into distinct groups based on their treatment choice patterns. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among US residents aged > 40years with PC, employing a discrete choice experiment to assess preferences for ADT attributes. For each choice task, respondents were asked to select the hypothetical treatment profile that they preferred out of two presented. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to estimate attribute-level preference weights and calculate attribute relative importance for groups of respondents with similar treatment preferences. A total of 304 respondents completed the survey (mean age 64.4years). LCA identified four preference groups, named according to the attribute each group considered most important: Sexual interest, Cost-sensitive, Favors daily pill, and Favors injection. Most respondents in the Sexual interest group were < 65years, while the Cost-sensitive group was mostly ≥ 65years. Favors daily pill had the highest proportion of ADT-naïve individuals. On average, respondents in these groups preferred an oral medication. Favors injection, which had the highest proportion of ADT-experienced individuals, preferred infrequent intramuscular injections, lower chance of post-ADT testosterone recovery, and lower OOP cost. Respondents differed in their preferences regarding ADT attributes, highlighting the need for patient involvement in their treatment decisions. Effective communication between healthcare providers and patients about the benefits and risks of available therapies should be encouraged to ensure that patients receive the PC treatment that best meets their needs.

Effect of Acute Alcohol Consumption in a Novel Rodent Model of Decision Making.

Alcohol use, especially at high consumption levels, can lead to irrational decision-making. In humans, this can lead to harmful outcomes often seen in the context of driving under the influence and or aggressive behavior. To date, the field is lacking comprehensive animal models to examine the impact of alcohol use on decision making in rodents, particularly to examine sex differences in choice behavior. To address this issue, the present study examined the effects of acute alcohol consumption during a behavioral approach-avoidance task that captures momentary changes in decision-making behavior and choice selection in female and male rats. Our team has developed a novel behavioral protocol involving a concurrent choice to consume four different concentrations of alcohol and sucrose combinations. During the task, female or male rats can approach or avoid drinking solutions in four distinct corners of our test apparatus. The solutions were prepared in inverse concentrations (higher sucrose was paired with lower alcohol and vice versa) so that the rodents pursue minimal alcohol use by consuming the higher sucrose concentrations or higher concentrations of alcohol by drinking the lower sucrose concentrations. The animals also have the option to avoid drinking alcohol by not approaching any of the drinking cups. Behavior and choice were tracked during task performance involving different solution concentrations of alcohol and sucrose. The choice of consuming different concentrations of alcohol or sucrose resulted in sex-dependent differences in an approach-avoid trade-off pattern of behavior that was sensitive to different concentrations of alcohol/sucrose combinations. Notably, males were greatly affected by the introduction of alcohol into the task environment, approaching higher alcohol concentrations significantly more often than the non-alcohol containing options. In contrast, females choice patterns and task performance were largely unchanged during alcohol and non-alcohol containing tasks. Regardless of sex, we identify a novel method for identifying individual subject decision-making abnormalities during and after alcohol consumption. This research reveals a novel approach for examining the effects of acute alcohol exposure during a trade-off task, with decision patterns being more impacted by alcohol use in males as compared to females. We also offer the field a novel approach for identifying individual abnormalities in decision making behavior with the presentation of alcohol. Future research can explore these abnormal patterns in both acute and chronic alcohol conditions to develop methods for identifying subjects at-risk for developing an alcohol use disorder and the deleterious impact of alcohol on rational decision making.

Making valuations with the priority heuristic

The priority heuristic is a lexicographic semi-order for choosing between gambles. It has merits such as predicting, out-of-sample, people's majority choice more accurately than benchmarks such as prospect theory, having been axiomatized, and logically implying major violations of expected utility theory. The heuristic has shortcomings too, such as failing to account for individual differences and intricate choice patterns, and predicting less accurately than various model ensembles and neural networks in some environments. This note focuses on an important purported shortcoming of the heuristic, that it cannot produce valuations of gambles. I point out that the certainty equivalent of a gamble for the priority heuristic is known and suggest that this fact can be used to enhance the scope of the heuristic. Indeed, by making simple auxiliary assumptions and calculations, I demonstrate that the priority heuristic can explain the Saint Petersburg paradox and the equity premium puzzle, and to do so arguably more parsimoniously and plausibly than standard approaches.

Attribute commensurability and context effects in preferential choice.

Context effects in multi-alternative, multi-attribute choice are widely documented, but often elusive. We show that this elusiveness can arise in part from the way that choices are presented. To illustrate this, we use a modeling framework to predict how changes to the format of attribute values, specifically the commensurability of attribute values, influences attention allocation and consequently context effects. Guided by this framework, we show in two online choice experiments (total N = 954 adults) that manipulating the commensurability of attributes leads to different patterns of context effects. Robust attraction and compromise effects are found when attributes are incommensurable (e.g., CPU speed in GHz and RAM memory in GB, or quality ratings on different scales), and mostly null effects occur when attributes are commensurable (e.g., quality ratings on the same scale). Our findings show how the format of choice information can substantially alter the integration of that information and resulting choice patterns.

Karl Pearson’s (1857–1936) patterns of publishing

Karl Pearson (1857–1936) was elected FRS in 1896 based on his contributions to applied mathematics. His contributions to biometry, eugenics, and other areas of applied statistics largely came later. This research note describes patterns in Pearson’s publishing behaviour: which venues he chose for his work, and how these choices compare with choices made by peers of similar standing at the same institution. This note quantifies patterns in choice for publishing venues for Pearson, both for his whole bibliography and for the subset of his bibliography associated with biometry and eugenics. This analysis indicates that Pearson relied to a high degree on publishing through venues either solely or primarily under his own editorial control. That pattern of publishing is a significant outlier compared with our sample of peers of similar local standing in the University of London. These results suggest the considerable potential for more detailed studies of publishing patterns by senior university researchers.

The Relative Importance of the Contrast and Assimilation Effects in Decisions Under Risk

ABSTRACTPast research on decisions under risk has documented two contradictory context effects: the contrast effect, where risk preferences in “target” tasks diverge from those in previous “surrounding” tasks, and the assimilation effect that implies the opposite bias. We present four web experiments (three preregistered) that clarify the conditions determining the relative prominence of these opposing effects. Our experiments focus on choice patterns in “target” tasks where participants choose between the status quo and a risky mixed gamble with an expected value of zero. Study 1 examines the impact of surroundings that differ from the target task with respect to the expected benefit from risk‐taking. The findings reveal a strong contrast effect: Decreasing the attractiveness of risk‐taking in the surrounding tasks increased the risk‐taking rate in the target tasks from 53.2% to 79.7%. Study 2 investigates the impact of surroundings that differ in the payoff domain. The findings indicate a strong assimilation effect: Decreasing the attractiveness of risk‐taking in the surrounding tasks decreased the risk‐taking rate in the target tasks from 74.7% to 36.5%. Additionally, the results revealed unpredicted and robust reversed loss aversion patterns which Studies 3 and 4 further clarify. Our findings (1) suggest that the isolated within‐task computations assumed by leading descriptive models overlook substantial contextual considerations, (2) clarify the factors determining the impact of the contrast and assimilation effects in decisions under risk, and (3) provide a theoretical framework for making useful predictions in various scenarios.

Measuring the effectiveness of incorporating mobile charging services into urban electric vehicle charging network: An agent-based approach

Mobile charging service (MCS) has emerged as a cost-efficient solution to compensate for the limitations of fixed charging stations (FCSs) in service capacity and coverage. Nevertheless, the impacts of incorporating the MCS into the charging infrastructure network have not been well understood. Therefore, this study introduces an exhaustive framework for devising Agent-based Modeling (ABM) to delineate electric vehicle (EV) drivers' daily travels and charging behaviors within the integrated charging network. Specifically, the developed ABM framework encompasses both internal attributes of individuals and external variables of charging and transport networks that potentially shape EV drivers’ public charging decisions. It generates authentic daily charging demands for FCSs and MCSs and provides a streamlined process to further incorporate more charging modes into the EV charging ecosystem. Subsequently, we opted for the Salt Lake City metropolitan area to implement our framework and showcase the effectiveness of MCS integration on the charging network over various EV adoption levels and network settings. The findings of the designed case study unravel the choice patterns of EV drivers when facing diverse charging options and pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses of MCS incorporating into the urban charging network at different stages.

Impartial policymakers prefer to impose carbon pricing to capping, especially when combined with offsets

Sustainable socio-economic development requires a global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize an incentivized experiment to map the preferences of ‘policymakers’ over climate actions of ‘decision-makers’. Our design guarantees that these preferences are unaffected by selfish motives such as a concern about being re-elected or an unwillingness to pay for the greater good. Few of our impartial policymakers choose interventions that leave the autonomy of decision-makers' completely untouched. The choice patterns of those who intervene suggest that policymakers care not only about minimizing emissions, but also about how emissions are reduced. Policymakers strongly prefer pricing policies over capping emissions, and among the pricing policies, they prefer those that include voluntary carbon offsets, even if this leaves considerable scope for decision-makers to selfishly emit CO2. The reason is that policymakers expect decision-makers to voluntarily offset some of their emissions at their own cost, and believe that this would eventually improve the outcome in terms of both emissions and the decision-makers' profit relative to a standard carbon pricing policy (without offsetting). Our decision-making data confirm this expectation.

Modeling pedestrians' activity time-use choices in a virtual urban public space: The influences of the environment and affective experience

Understanding pedestrians' time-use choices for multiple activities in urban public spaces is crucial for developing diverse and inclusive public spaces. Few studies have explored how pedestrians' time-use choices are influenced by the physical environment when engaging in various micro-level activities in public spaces, nor have they captured the influence of experience-based factors (e.g., emotion and perceptions) triggered by varying environments, as well as heterogeneity between individuals. This study employs the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model to estimate the effects of public space environmental attributes, visit purpose, emotion, and perceptions on individuals' activity time-use choices using data collected in varying virtual hypothetical public spaces. A latent class MDCEV model incorporating personal variables is used to further examine individual heterogeneity. The results indicate that outdoor dining spaces and benches significantly promote outdoor activities. Emotional pleasure and arousal, as well as perceived legibility and liveness, significantly influence various activities in varying ways and to varying degrees. Differences in activity time-use choice patterns between two groups are revealed - one more emotionally driven and the other more cognitively driven. The results complement existing knowledge of pedestrians' activities and inform the planning and design decisions for positive human-environment interactions in urban public spaces.

Gender Norms, Food Choice and Household Food Consumption Pattern in Pastoral Community in Kambala Village at Mvomero District

Gender Norms, Food Choice and Household Food Consumption Pattern in Pastoral Community in Kambala Village at Mvomero District

Socio-Cultural Factors Influencing Language Use and Identity Construction Among Women in Kitui West Constituency, Kenya

This research seeks to examine and describe the complex interaction between language and identity in the lives of the women of Kitui West Constituency, Kitui County, Kenya. Grounded in ethnography, this study explores the cultural and social factors that inform language variations and identity construction in diverse women’s collectives. The targeted institutions include church-related organizations, SACCOs, and informal community-based organizations. The combined focus on qualitative and quantitative methodology: in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and sociolinguistic questionnaires fills a gap in knowledge pertaining to language and identity in multilingual African settings and provides impetus for reflections on language policy as well as women’s rights and emancipation reveal the gendered interdependence between the patterns of language choice and societal factors such as education, religion, urbanization, and economic activity. The analysis of the data provided shows that women in Kitui West have diverse linguistic resources that they negotiate every day while juggling between cultural and socially imposed roles and rights. Consequently, it fills a gap in knowledge pertaining to language and identity in multilingual African settings and provides impetus for reflections on language policy as well as women’s rights and emancipation.

Study of Canada’s Economic System from a System Thinking Perspective

This article analyzes Canada’s economic system from a systems thinking perspective. The content includes patterns of public choice (party system and power distribution), organizational framework of decision-making arrangements, information provision and coordination mechanisms, property rights system, incentive system, and welfare system. Canada’s economic system significantly influences the development of the Canadian economy, and its economic system arrangements hold reference significance for other developed and developing countries.

Determining sample size in a personalized randomized controlled (PRACTical) trial.

In clinical settings with no commonly accepted standard-of-care, multiple treatment regimens are potentially useful, but some treatments may not be appropriate for some patients. A personalized randomized controlled trial (PRACTical) design has been proposed for this setting. For a network of treatments, each patient is randomized only among treatments which are appropriate for them. The aim is to produce treatment rankings that can inform clinical decisions about treatment choices for individual patients. Here we propose methods for determining sample size in a PRACTical design, since standard power-based methods are not applicable. We derive a sample size by evaluating information gained from trials of varying sizes. For a binary outcome, we quantify how many adverse outcomes would be prevented by choosing the top-ranked treatment for each patient based on trial results rather than choosing a random treatment from the appropriate personalized randomization list. In simulations, we evaluate three performance measures: mean reduction in adverse outcomes using sample information, proportion of simulated patients for whom the top-ranked treatment performed as well or almost as well as the best appropriate treatment, and proportion of simulated trials in which the top-ranked treatment performed better than a randomly chosen treatment. We apply the methods to a trial evaluating eight different combination antibiotic regimens for neonatal sepsis (NeoSep1), in which a PRACTical design addresses varying patterns of antibiotic choice based on disease characteristics and resistance. Our proposed approach produces results that are more relevant to complex decision making by clinicians and policy makers.

Humans forage for reward in reinforcement learning tasks.

How do we make good decisions in uncertain environments? In psychology and neuroscience, the classic answer is that we calculate the value of each option and then compare the values to choose the most rewarding, modulo some exploratory noise. An ethologist, conversely, would argue that we commit to one option until its value drops below a threshold, at which point we start exploring other options. In order to determine which view better describes human decision-making, we developed a novel, foraging-inspired sequential decision-making model and used it to ask whether humans compare to threshold ("Forage") or compare alternatives ("Reinforcement-Learn" [RL]). We found that the foraging model was a better fit for participant behavior, better predicted the participants' tendency to repeat choices, and predicted the existence of held-out participants with a pattern of choice that was almost impossible under RL. Together, these results suggest that humans use foraging computations, rather than RL, even in classic reinforcement learning tasks.

Unraveling female mate choice in Schizocosa mccooki: The interplay of male mass and vibratory courtship

AbstractSexual selection is an important evolutionary force and despite extensive research, understanding mate choice on naturally occurring trait variation remains an intriguing area of study. The correlation between mass, a trait associated with courter viability and common target for mate choice, and signals is particularly noteworthy. This study focuses on Schizocosa mccooki, the largest member of a wolf spider genus renowned for its diverse complex male courtship. Our objective was to understand the relationship of male mass and other courtship signals on female choice within this species. We conducted lab experiments involving random pairings of field caught males and females, recording vibratory courtship and its outcomes. Our findings revealed that S. mccooki courtship consisted of vibratory signals with two major components, thumps and raps. Male mass, overall courtship vigor, and thump duration were found to predict mating success. Interestingly, we found no correlation between temporal traits and mass suggesting independent information and an absence of trade‐offs between mass, courtship vigor, and signal component rates/durations. Instead, we found that heavier males tend to produce thumps with lower frequencies. The finding that male mass predicts mating success contrasts with patterns observed in other species in this well‐studied genus. By uncovering the mate choice patterns of S. mccooki, this study underscores the importance of comparative studies to understand the ways in which sexual selection drives diversification, even among closely related taxa.

The Zero Effect: An Eye‐Tracking Study of Affect and Motivation in Risky Choices

ABSTRACTDecision makers often prefer safe wins over risky gambles, even if the latter promise higher payoffs than the former. One mechanism that explains this choice pattern is the certainty effect, whereby probabilities of 0 and 1 are interpreted accurately but intermediate probabilities are distorted by diminishing sensitivity. We tested an alternative explanation that was recently proposed, the idea that people would be motivated by avoiding zero outcomes rather than being attracted to sure gains. This zero‐outcome aversion in gain‐domain choices was called the zero effect. By analogy, we proposed that decision makers would approach zero outcomes in the loss domain. Two eye‐tracking experiments investigated visual attention as a key component of the zero effect in the gain domain (Experiment 1) and the loss domain (Experiment 2). Choices were consistent with the zero effect. In the gain domain, gambles were chosen less frequently if they included a zero outcome. In contrast, zero‐outcome gambles were chosen more frequently in the loss domain. Eye movements and pupillometry indicated that zero outcomes in both domains (a) were less frequently fixated than other outcomes and (b) were associated with increased arousal. We concluded that domain‐specific affective responses to zero outcomes aligned with approach/avoidance motivation. These distinct motivations in turn biased information search and choice behavior.

Migration, Partner Selection, and Fertility in Germany: How Many Children are Born in Mixed Unions?

For the German context, we investigate whether the number of children ever born differs between mixed unions (exogamous unions between natives and migrants or migrant descendants) and endogamous unions (unions among co-ethnics). Our theoretical considerations are derived from assimilation theories, which view exogamous unions as indicators of assimilation processes, and the framework on migrant fertility. The migrant (or descendant) partner in an exogamous union may adapt to the majority group, both partners may adapt to each other, or both partners may constitute a selected group in their fertility preferences. However, due to the higher likelihood of conflicts within the partnership and of separation, exogamy may disrupt family formation processes and depress couples’ fertility. Drawing on data from the GSOEP (1984–2020), we estimate generalized Poisson regressions. The results reveal that the number of children ever born is higher in exogamous unions than in endogamous native couples. This general pattern largely persists across migrant generations and regions of origin, but we identify gender differences. While fertility in exogamous unions of native women/migrant (descendant) men is not statistically different from fertility in native/native couples, unions of migrant (descendant) women/native men have more children, especially when controlling for socio-demographic confounders. Our results demonstrate that in the German context, exogamy does not lead to fertility disruptions, and is not straightforwardly associated with assimilation to the fertility of the majority group. Instead, differences in gendered partner choice patterns and life-course transitions may influence the number of children exogamous couples have.

The language of Nigerian stand-up comedy

Nigeria is complexly multilingual. Arising from this, Nigerian stand–up comedians employ a variety of linguistic strategies to communicate with the audience. This research investigates the peculiarities of language use in Nigerian stand-up comedy by analysing patterns of code choices in the comic performances of four comedians. Because the stand-up comedy industry is predominant in the Southern part of Nigeria, the comedians chosen for this study are representative of the three geopolitical zones of southern Nigeria. The analysis of the data indicates that (1) although Nigerian stand-up comedians primarily use Nigerian Pidgin (NP) they also employ language alternation and code-switch between NP, English, and a variety of indigenous languages. (2) NP is mainly used in the oral medium. Consequently, features of orality: repetition, parallel structures, anaphora, lexical cushioning, semantic extension, metaphor imagery, sentence fragments, and rhetorical devices, are other dominant features of Nigerian stand-up comedy.

InfoSTGCAN: An Information-Maximizing Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Attention Network for Heterogeneous Human Trajectory Prediction

Predicting the future trajectories of multiple interacting pedestrians within a scene has increasingly gained importance in various fields, e.g., autonomous driving, human–robot interaction, and so on. The complexity of this problem is heightened due to the social dynamics among different pedestrians and their heterogeneous implicit preferences. In this paper, we present Information Maximizing Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Attention Network (InfoSTGCAN), which takes into account both pedestrian interactions and heterogeneous behavior choice modeling. To effectively capture the complex interactions among pedestrians, we integrate spatial-temporal graph convolution and spatial-temporal graph attention. For grasping the heterogeneity in pedestrians’ behavior choices, our model goes a step further by learning to predict an individual-level latent code for each pedestrian. Each latent code represents a distinct pattern of movement choice. Finally, based on the observed historical trajectory and the learned latent code, the proposed method is trained to cover the ground-truth future trajectory of this pedestrian with a bi-variate Gaussian distribution. We evaluate the proposed method through a comprehensive list of experiments and demonstrate that our method outperforms all baseline methods on the commonly used metrics, Average Displacement Error and Final Displacement Error. Notably, visualizations of the generated trajectories reveal our method’s capacity to handle different scenarios.