Agricultural Land Use Patterns Research Articles

Future European agricultural landscapes—What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies?

Abstract The structure of agricultural production and spatial patterns of agricultural land use in Europe are expected to face major changes over the next decades due to changes in global trade, technology, demography and policies. This paper presents a set of 25 scenarios comprising information on quantitative land use changes in Europe. The scenarios have been selected from studies with different foci, operating on both different spatial scales and different time horizons. Given the diversity of quantitative scenarios this review illustrates the scenario design and its quantification, and evaluates the results of land use/cover changes on a European level. Major gaps of current scenario exercises and suggestions for improvement are topics of the discussion section (Section 4 ). The focus of this review is on the comparison of selected driving forces and on agricultural land use/cover change in “Western Europe” (i.e. EU-15 plus Switzerland and Norway for some studies). Results show large differences in future land use/cover changes ranging from moderate decreases (15%) to large increases (30%) depending on the assumptions about global trade, increase in agricultural productivity and biofuel production. Domestic demand is a minor factor of land use/cover change since population is only changing slightly, and the consumption level is stable and decoupled from economic growth. Scenarios show that the rate and direction of land cover change differ over time. Considerable shifts towards grassland abandonment in many scenarios reflect the changes in agricultural management. Increasing biofuel production as a result of both increasing energy demand and pro-active climate policies takes up considerable areas in many scenarios and prevents substantial abandonment of agricultural land. Although comparable quantitative results concerning European agricultural land use/cover change are only available on a very aggregated level, the results are important to be dealt with when discussing future challenges of rural areas.

Urbanization linked with past agricultural landuse patterns in the urban fringe of a deltaic Asian mega-city: a case study in Bangkok

Urban sprawl areas as mixtures of urban and rural landuses are being created increasingly rapidly in the suburbs of the mega-cities located on Asia's river deltas. These landuse changes are causing serious environmental problems and dynamic urban growth controls are urgently needed. We examined landuse changes in the suburbs of Bangkok, and focused on the landform transformation that is inherent on deltas where the landuse is shifting from paddy fields to urban dwellings. The research was conducted through aerial photograph interpretation and field measurements. GIS was used for data analysis. We confirm that the present pattern of urban landuse has been profoundly influenced by past agricultural landuses, which in turn were adapted to the natural local environment. Areas subject to rice plantations with linear canal systems are occupied by townhouses, whereas areas subject to paddy fields with irregular canal systems are occupied by slum-type housing. Transect surveys indicate that the local people have responded to flooding expertly through artificial landform transformation. There was a statistical association between landlevel and landuse type. The volume of landform transformation that has occurred over the last half-century was calculated at 3.2 × 10 7 m 3, equivalent to 64 km 2 of area flooded to an average depth of 50 cm. Thus, landuse change has both horizontal and vertical components, which cannot be separated from each other. From these results, it is clear that past patterns of agricultural landuse and landform transformation are keys to effective landscape planning for mega-cities on the deltas of Asia.

Realism and the Nature of Theory: A Lesson from J H von Thünen for Economists and Geographers

It is argued that J H von Thünen was a realist who deliberately used unrealistic assumptions to pursue a true account of a major aspect of the determination of agricultural land-use patterns. The assumptions of the simplest model of concentric rings are examined to show that this highly unrealistic model deserves a realist interpretation: the idealising assumptions serve the purpose of neutralising the impact of a number of factors on the land-use pattern and thereby help focus on the causal contribution of one major factor, namely distance from the market. It is von Thünen's conviction that this factor and its causal contribution are real rather than fictional, and that his basic model truthfully captured them. The potential truth of von Thünen's simplest model does not require that its assumptions are true nor that the representation of the resulting land-use pattern is true. This reading of von Thünen's theory is contrasted with the traditional fictionalist ‘as-if’ interpretation of Der isolierte Staat espoused by Hans Vaihinger, Peter Hall, and others. It is pointed out that economists and geographers both hold notions of realism that fail to accommodate von Thünen's realism. Although economists tend to conflate realism and realisticness and therefore fail to understand that realism is compatible with the use of unrealistic assumptions, human geographers have adopted highly specific ideas of realism that fail to do justice to von Thünen's theory. Because much of theorising in both disciplines follows the Thünian strategy, there is an important lesson to be learnt both for supporters and for opponents of that strategy.

Patterns and ecological implications of agricultural land-use changes: a case study from central Himalaya, India

Land-use change has important implications for sustainable livelihood of local communities where traditional crop–livestock mixed farming is sustained with local inputs. Knowledge of recent changes in land use, driving forces and implications of changes within the context of sustainable development is limited. This study analyses the changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use, crop diversity, manure input, yield, soil loss and run-off from cropland, and dependence of agroecosystems on forests, during the 1963–1993 period in a small watershed in central Himalaya, India. Data obtained from existing maps, interpretation of satellite imagery, geographic information system (GIS) based land-use change analysis, participatory survey and field measurements were integrated to quantify changes at the landscape/watershed scale. During the 1963–1993 period, agricultural land use increased by 30% at the cost of loss of 5% of forestland. About 60% of agricultural expansion occurred in community forests compared to 35% in protected forests and 5% in reserve forests. Agricultural expansion was most conspicuous at higher elevations (1800–2600 m) and on medium slopes (10–30°). Cultivation of buckwheat ( Fagopyrum esculentum L., Fagopyrum tataricum (L.) Gaertner), hogmillet ( Panicum miliaceum L.) and foxtail millet ( Setaria italica (L.) Beauv.) was abandoned. Potato ( Solanum tuberosum L.), a cash crop, completely replaced the abandoned crops and partially replaced many other traditional crops. Soil loss, run-off and manure input related to potato cultivation was much higher compared to other crops. Mean annual fodder yield from cropland declined by 44%, while manure input, soil loss and run-off increased by 46, 90 and 51%, respectively. Changes in land use and management have improved household income but at the cost of increase in intensity of biomass removal from forests and loss of forest cover. As farm productivity is dependent on forests, continued depletion of forest resources will result in poor economic returns from agriculture to local people together with loss of global benefits from forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. Policy support for sustainable income from forests to local people as well as technologies enhancing agricultural productivity through conservation of traditional crop diversity and efficient resource recycling within agroecosystems is needed for sustainable livelihood of local communities together with global benefits from the Himalayan forests and ecosystem services.

Development and allocation of land-use scenarios in agriculture for hydrological impact studies

In order to study the impacts of Global Change induced future agricultural land-use patterns on regional water dynamics and water quality, the spatial and temporal crop distribution under present and under scenario conditions is needed. The development of land-use changes inside the arable areas was simulated by a bottom-up approach basing on the analysis of adaptation reactions of farmers. A Geographic Information System-based approach was developed, that performs a spatial allocation of these crop schemes, and reproduces the agricultural fruit patterns and rotation cycles. This so called “crop generator” was applied to the Thuringian Basin in Germany and the distributed eco-hydrological model ArcEGMO was run to simulate the water dynamics in the basin of the Upper Unstrut for the political frame of the European Union’s AGENDA 2000.

Modelling the spatial distribution of agricultural land use at the regional scale

Agriculture is the most important land use in Europe in geographic terms and because of this it plays a central role in the quality of the wider environment. Whilst the spatial patterns of agricultural land use have changed considerably in recent times, further changes are likely as a result of the influences of policy reform, socio-economics and climate change. Understanding, therefore, how agricultural land use might respond to global environmental change drivers is a research question of considerable importance. The first step, however, in projecting potential future changes in agricultural land use is to be able to understand and represent in models both the socio-economic and physical processes that control current land use distributions. Thus, this paper presents an approach to modelling the spatial distribution of agricultural land use at the regional scale. The approach is based on the simulation of farm-scale decision making processes (based on optimisation) and the response of crops to their physical environment. Regional scale applications of the model are undertaken through the use of spatially-variable, geographic data sets (soils, climate and topography) combined with economic data. Examples of the application of the model are given for two regions of England: the north-west and east Anglia. These regions were selected to give examples of contrasting land use systems within the context of northern European agriculture. The model results are compared statistically with observed distributions of agricultural land use for the same regions in a quasi-validation exercise. The comparison suggests that the model is very good at representing land use that is aggregated at the regional level, and at representing general spatial trends in land use patterns. Some differences were observed, however, in land use densities between the modelled and observed data. The results suggest that the basic hypothesis of the model: that farmers are risk averse, profit maximisers, is a reasonable assumption for the regions studied. However, further study of decision making processes would be likely to improve our ability to model agricultural land use distributions. This includes, for example, the role of farmer attitudes to risk, differing views on future prices and profitability, and the effect of time lags in the decision process.

Characterizing patterns of agricultural land use in Amazonia by merging satellite classifications and census data

Amazonia has been under considerable development pressure as croplands and pasture are established in areas formerly occupied by tropical forest and cerrado. Although this region is an important part of several important planetary biogeochemical cycles, the location and impact of human land use are not well understood. In particular, there is no existing satellite‐based map of agriculture across the Amazon or Tocantins river drainage basins. Recent efforts have classified land cover across this vast region, although they disagree on the location and amount of cropland and do not directly address pasture, a land use that has grown in importance in the last 2 decades. Here we present an analysis of land cover and land use practices over the Amazon and Tocantins basins of South America. In this study, we demonstrate how satellite imagery and agricultural censuses can be merged in order to provide a geographically explicit, fine‐scale description of land cover and land use practices. The result depicts the fraction of each 5‐min (9 × 9 km) grid cell that was devoted to agricultural activity during the mid‐1990s. The resultant map retains many of the characteristics of the agricultural census data, but with a much finer spatial resolution. During the mid‐1990s, cultivated area is estimated to have been 1.7 × 107 ha (2.5% of the basin), natural pasture is estimated at 3.3 × 107 ha (4.9% of the basin), and planted pasture is estimated to cover 3.3 × 107 ha (4.9% of the basin). Perhaps more important than the quantities, however, is that these data sets provide a new blend of ground‐based and satellite‐based spatially explicit data. This snapshot can be used as a basis to project either forward or backward in time, as a new check of finer scale land use classifications or as a driver of ecosystem models.

Principles and Applications of Economic Geography: Economy, Policy, Environment

Introduction to the Study of Economics Geography. Location Principles and Land Use. Global Patterns of Agricultural Land Use. Land-Use Transition, Conflict, and Control. Resource Use: Population, Technology, and Accessibility. Transportation and Spatial Interaction. The Location of Manufacturing. The Location of Services. Urban and Regional Economic Growth. International Trade: Patterns and Management. Economic Growth and Development: National Patterns and Processes. Geographic Perspectives on Sustainable Economic Growth and Development. Glossary. Index.

Agricultural land-use patterns and the decline of the helmeted guineafowl Numida meleagris (Linnaeus 1766) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Land-use practices can impact on bird populations. This study set out to explain why the helmeted guineafowl, Numida meleagris (Linnaeus 1766; Aves: Numididae) declined in the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, an agricultural area where these birds were once abundant in savannas mixed with cultivation. Within the Midlands, the potential roles of land-use practices and pesticides were investigated. Using a grid cell approach, the distribution of 11 land-uses was mapped for 19 farms with different levels of guineafowl abundance. The edge distance between extensive and intensive agriculture was significantly associated with the presence of guineafowl. The presence of guineafowl was associated with greater land-use diversity, showing this species' preference for a mosaic of land-uses. Extensive agricultural areas were used for cover and intensive ones for food, but the adjacency of these land-uses affected access to these resources. Larger flocks (≥100 birds) were associated with pastures free of agro-chemicals, while smaller flocks (<100 birds) were associated with cereal lands where chemicals were used. The use of chemicals may reduce reproductive success by removing arthropods and weeds, which are critical food sources for female guineafowls and their keets during the breeding season. An inadequate grass cover for nesting may further reduce reproductive success. This study suggests that a combination of land-use spatial pattern and other factors, such as pesticide use, contributes to the decline in helmeted guineafowl populations in this intensively farmed area of South Africa.

Percevoir la forêt et la gestion forestière//Perceiving forests and their management

The spatial distribution of forests and the degree of their transformation by man are the result of natural factors and of cultural development processes. The border between forested areas and open spaces as well as the differences between intensively used forests and those showing little or no traces of human intervention are determined by social values and needs, econo- mic opportunities and political regulations. By referring to examples in Switzerland and Germany this paper presents the forests perceived by the population today as a physical and social space that has been profoundly influenced by timber harvesting and forest management, the social signifiance of which is still in full evolution. Changes of vegetation and of the distribution of forests have led to mosaic of differentiated and characteristic landscapes. Multiple uses of forests and wood have existed, as local resource, an integral part of agricultural production systems and as basis for handicraft and pre-industrial and industrial development. The consecutive stages have led to a forest economy based on the sustained production of wood which represents management model of space and its potentials as a productive resource. The manner in which the social meaning of forest is perceived and judged today, reflects the attitudes of citizens whose economic conditions and indicidual or collective preferences are profoundly different from those which managed and utilised the forests in the past. Quantitative and qualitative inquiries indicate how the persons interviewed presently perceive forests, wood production and forest management practices. The results show that forests have gained a broader significance representing for many people a recreational space with little disturbance. Forests mean unfettered natural processes and wilderness, something very different from the surrounding intensive urban and agricultural land-use patterns. Wood production and forests management appear to be accepted by most of the respondents even if they are evaluated in rather differentiated manner determined by personal values and convictions. The role of forests and of forestry has increasingly become the object of social and political debates in the broader context of sustainable development. This implies that multifunctional environmentally friendly forestry practices answer the expectations and desires better than other management policies.

The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales

This article summarises the results of a modelling study that examines how the geographical pattern of agricultural land use and production in England and Wales might be affected by climate change. Various scenarios of regional climate change are considered by the model within a price and demand framework of a world food market also affected by global warming. The study concludes that over 3M ha of current farmland may become unprofitable for agriculture by 2060 (assuming no climate change). In addition, under the global warming scenarios postulated, a radical shift in the location of agricultural production, particularly of cereals, would be likely to occur. The merits of this modelling approach and its usefulness are also discussed.

Future of land use in Australia: An economic perspective

AbstractIt is proposed that the standard economist's model of optimum land use is extended to include the interaction with land cover and land condition. Such a model allows consideration of the influence of market factors and government policies and programmes on land use patterns and management practices, and the feedback effect on land cover and land condition. Recent developments in the approach to modelling land condition, which include the joint consideration of economic factors and physical processes, are discussed. Factors affecting the pattern of agricultural land use in Australia are then reviewed. The importance of considering economic and physical interactions when assessing land use patterns is increasingly being recognized in research and policy development. If research is to meet the needs of land managers in the future then economists and physical scientists will need to integrate their data modelling capabilities in order to address natural resource management issues.

Agricultural land-use in Denmark in the 1980s

Reenberg, Anette: Agricultural land-use in Denmark in the 1980s. Geografisk Tidsskrift 88: 8–13. Copenhagen, 1988. The regional agricultural land-use pattern on community level is shown for selected Danish crops. It appears that even within the four years from 1981 Danish agriculture has experienced a substantial development towards a more intensive use of winter crops and crops rich in protein. This implies also some regional change in the relative importance of the major crops, where f.i. barley has lost its former total dominant position in Jutland.

ブラジル北東部,パライバ州における土地利用の地帯的変化

ブラジル北東部,パライバ州における土地利用の地帯的変化

Agricultural Geography: A Social and Economic Analysis

This is the first text on agricultural geography to adopt a primarily behavioural perspective, demonstrating that a realistic understanding of agricultural land-use patterns can only be obtained by examining farmers' reactions to, and perceptions of, changing economic circumstances. It analyses agricultual land-use pattern in terms of social and economic factors. Readership: first degree students in agricultural geography, economic geography, and rural geography; agricultural economics; rural sociologists; policy makers.

A reduced-rank prediction model of stream-channel size response to traditional agricultural land-use practices in southwestern Nigeria

Stream-channel morphologic responses are found to be related to different parameters measuring traditional agricultural land-use patterns and practices in 50 small headwater basins in southwest Nigeria. The problem of intercorrelations among these parameters made it initially difficult to establish their precise channel enlargement effects and to calibrate an impact prediction model. Through factor analysis of the 22 land-use and morphometric parameters, six factors identified as measures of traditional land-use practice, farm size, planting activities, shortened fallow, relief and overland flow, were found to account for 86% of the variance in the data. The factor-defining variables are length of cropping period, areas in short fallow, farm-plot size, length of farm preparation, relief ratio and overland flow. In a multiple regression analysis, only the first three variables were found to be statistically significant in explaining stream-channel morphologic responses. Thus, areas in short fallows, average farm size and length of cropping period adequately described those aspects of the traditional farming practices that affect basin hydrologic and channel responses. Since these variables were orthogonally derived, they formed the basis for the evaluation of the channel impact status of traditional land-use activities. The duplication of information and effects in the original 22-variable full-rank model were removed while utilizing the three-factor reduced model.

VON THÜNEN AND URBAN SPRAWL

ABSTRACT In explaining agricultural patterns near urban areas, Von Thunen's theory is generally applicable where the primary force determining the pattern is transport cost to the market. When this is the case, the pattern of agricultural land use is one of decreasing intensity with distance from the city. Von Thunen's theory still applies in underdeveloped parts of the world, but his basic premise has been outdated in more developed areas. In many advanced industrialized parts of the world, the basic forces determining agricultural land use near urban areas are associated with urban expansion. Where these forces are in operation, the agricultural pattern quite often is one of increasing intensity with distance from the city, quite the reverse of the pattern generalized by Von Thunen's theory. A theory is developed to explain the agricultural pattern near such modern urban areas, and empirical evidence related to this theory is examined.

A TEST OF A LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL OF AGRICULTURE

The pattern of agricultural production and land use specified by the linear programming model was greatly different from the actual pattern existing in 1963. I believe that the application of this model or similar models to other areas would not approximate actual patterns of production or resource use. Therefore, it is concluded that the assumptions upon which the model is based are inadequate for the construction of models aimed at estimating the economic feasibility of water resource investments. Further work on the model itself is necessary before it can be properly used in the predictive sense required in economic feasibility studies. In order to improve the model, it will be necessary to quantify additional constraining relationships that are generally encountered by the type of economic units being studied. Care should be taken not simply to build empirical realities into the model so as to reduce differences between the model results and existing production and resource use. Rather the type of constraints needed appear to require such studies as how economic units tend to react to opportunities for increased profits in situations where changes in habits would be required for the realization of these increased net returns. Studies which accurately estimate the economic efficiency of water resource investments need to consider how economic units will react to changes in water resources. The use of mathematical programming models in these studies serves to make this need more apparent.

THEORETICAL CONCEPTS AND THE ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND-USE PATTERNS IN GEOGRAPHY

ABSTRACT In the analysis of agricultural land-use patterns geographical studies have been chiefly analytical of unique areal cases. Recently some interest in general theory has been shown by geographers in various kinds of studies. A review of the literature, as surveyed in this article, reveals that some other disciplines have studied agricultural land use by constructing models expressing the normative performance of some aspect of functional activity. From the early, basically descriptive von Thunen model a wide variety of other, normative models have been developed, such as static or partial equilibrium, dynamic economic function, decision-making, and behavioral models. Each of these types, in being made operational for real-world application, faces problems involving spatial variance in environmental conditions, spatial variance in agricultural technology or productive practice, and evolutionary change through time. Behavioral models have been greatly improved in recent years, and one of the Hagerstr...