Abstract
This article summarises the results of a modelling study that examines how the geographical pattern of agricultural land use and production in England and Wales might be affected by climate change. Various scenarios of regional climate change are considered by the model within a price and demand framework of a world food market also affected by global warming. The study concludes that over 3M ha of current farmland may become unprofitable for agriculture by 2060 (assuming no climate change). In addition, under the global warming scenarios postulated, a radical shift in the location of agricultural production, particularly of cereals, would be likely to occur. The merits of this modelling approach and its usefulness are also discussed.
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