Patient-specific Prediction Research Articles

Abstract 4134947: Explainable Machine Learning to Predict Heart Failure Outcomes Using Exercise and Clinical Data

Background: Heart failure (HF) hospitalizations are associated with disease burden and cardiovascular mortality. International guidelines highlight cardiopulmonary testing (CPET) for risk stratification and prognosis in HF. Identifying individuals at risk could direct interventions to prevent admissions. This study uses explainable machine learning (XML) tools to identify CPET and clinical variables predictive of HF hospitalizations. Hypothesis: XML analysis of CPET parameters and clinical factors can yield accurate, patient-specific prediction of HF admission within one year. Methods: A retrospective single center review of 178 CPETs in patients referred for HF was completed. Clinical data within one year of CPET trained a boosted machine learning model (XGBoost). SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) explainability analysis emphasized key features for model predictions. Results: 44 (24.7%) patients with CPET were admitted for HF within one year. The model predicted this outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.772. SHAP analysis (Figure 1) selected factors for decision making: pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) via cardiac catheterization or echocardiogram; oxygen consumption at the ventilatory threshold (VO 2 at VT); O 2 pulse at rest; ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO 2 slope); minute ventilation per oxygen consumption at maximal exercise (VE/VO 2 max) during CPET; left ventricle end diastolic volume by echocardiogram; and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor usage. Peak VO2, predicted VO2, predicted O2 pulse, and VE/VCO2 slope were significant, consistent with past studies (Table 1). Conclusion: Our XML analysis emphasizes PASP (partially related to high left ventricular filling pressures) and VO 2 (at ventilatory threshold) as predictive for HF hospitalization within one year of CPET testing. Studies to prospectively evaluate these highlighted factors are needed to continue exploring predictive capabilities to tailor interventions.

Anchoring temporal convolutional networks for epileptic seizure prediction.

Accurate and timely prediction of epileptic seizures is crucial for empowering patients to mitigate their impact or prevent them altogether. Current studies predominantly focus on short-term seizure predictions, which causes the prediction time to be shorter than the onset of antiepileptic, thus failing to prevent seizures. However, longer epilepsy prediction faces the problem that as the preictal period lengthens, it increasingly resembles the interictal period, complicating differentiation. To address these issues, we employ the sample entropy method for feature extraction from electroencephalography (EEG) signals. Subsequently, we introduce the Anchoring Temporal Convolutional Networks (ATCN) model for longer-term, patient-specific epilepsy prediction. ATCN utilizes dilated causal convolutional networks to learn time-dependent features from previous data, capturing temporal causal correlations within and between samples. Additionally, the model also incorporates anchoring data to enhance the performance of epilepsy prediction further. Finally, we proposed a multilayer sliding window prediction algorithm for seizure alarms. Evaluation on the Freiburg intracranial EEG dataset shows our approach achieves 100% sensitivity, a false prediction rate (FPR) of 0.08 per hour and an average prediction time (APT) of 99.98 minutes. Using the CHB-MIT scalp EEG dataset, we a achieve 97.44% sensitivity, an FPR of 0.11 per hour, and an APT of 92.99 minutes. These results demonstrate that our approach is adequate for seizure prediction over a more extended prediction range on intracranial and scalp EEG datasets. The average prediction time of our approach exceeds the typical onset time of antiepileptic. This approach is particularly beneficial for patients who need to take medication at regular intervals, as they may only need to take their medication when our method issues an alarm. This capability has the potential to prevent seizures, which will greatly improving patients' quality of life.

EEG-based patient-specific seizure prediction based on Spatial–Temporal Hypergraph Attention Transformer

Background and Objectives:Patient-specific seizure prediction based on Electroencephalogram (EEG) is a challenging and significant neuromedicine study, which could potentially safeguard drug-resistant patients from unforeseen risks in their daily lives. However, prevalent seizure prediction frameworks based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) prioritize local information while overlooking long-range global dependencies and high-order spatial correlations prevalent among brain leads. Methods:To address the limitations above, we propose a novel Spatial–Temporal Hypergraph Attention Transformer (STHAT) framework for extracting the key features in EEG signals. Aimed at the characteristics of epilepsy EEG data, our framework comprises two primary branches: (1) Long-range Temporal Feature Dependencies: This branch aims to capture temporal dependencies within EEG signals by leveraging Swin Transformer and 2D-CNN. Utilizing shifting windows and convolution operations, we encode local and global content dependencies within segmented EEG samples. (2) High-Order Spatial Information Correlations: We construct a raw graph structure using the Pearson correlation coefficient, enabling the extraction of initial node embeddings through graph convolution operations (GCO). Subsequently, a dynamic hypergraph is formed using K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and K-means clustering, allowing us to employ a Hypergraph Attention Network (HAN) to capture structural context relationships among brain regions. By integrating information from both branches, we utilize a linear layer to derive the final seizure prediction outcome. Experiment and Results:Extensive evaluations are conducted on the widely used CHB-MIT dataset. Our comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in achieving superior performance in automatic seizure data prediction, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms. The STHAT framework effectively exploits both temporal and spatial information within EEG signals, enhancing seizure prediction accuracy.

Cramer Distance: A Deep Learning Approach for Better Epileptic Seizure Prediction

Epilepsy is a neurological condition that is found in most people all over the world, and the ability to accurately anticipate seizures in epileptic patients has a significant impact on both their level of protection and their overall quality of life. This research proposes a unique patient specific seizure prediction approach based on Deep Learning (DL) using long-term scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings to predict seizure onset. Preictal brain states should be adequately detected and differentiated from the prevalent interictal brain states as early as possible to make this technology acceptable for real-time use. A single automated system has been designed for the Features Extraction (FE) and classification processes. The raw EEG signal that has not been pre-processed is considered the input to the system, and the signal is further reduced using subsequent computations. An innovative reconstruction approach using Variational Auto-Encoder Generative Adversarial Networks (VAE+C+GAN) with the Cramer Distance (CD) and a Temporal-Spatial-Frequency (TSF) loss function is presented in this research work. The machine that discriminates receives instructions to differentiate between created tests and actual samples, while the generator is verified to produce false samples that the discriminator does not recognize as fake. The proposed VAE+C+GAN’s experimental results have been examined, and a classification accuracy of 95% has been achieved. According to the experiment's findings, the VAE-C-GAN performs better than the current EEG classification system and has excellent potential for real-time applications.

Leveraging digital twins for improved orthopaedic evaluation and treatment.

The purpose of this article is to explore the potential of digital twin technologies in orthopaedics and to evaluate how their integration with artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) can improve orthopaedic evaluation and treatment. This review addresses key applications of digital twins, including surgical planning, patient-specific outcome prediction, augmented reality-assisted surgery and simulation-based surgical training. Existing studies on digital twins in various domains, including engineering, biomedical and orthopaedics are reviewed. We also reviewed advancements in AI and DL relevant to digital twins. We focused on identifying key benefits, challenges and future directions for the implementation of digital twins in orthopaedic practice. The review highlights that digital twins offer significant potential to revolutionise orthopaedic care by enabling precise surgical planning, real-time outcome prediction and enhanced training. Digital twins can model patient-specific anatomy using advanced imaging techniques and dynamically update with real-time data, providing valuable insights during surgery and postoperative care. However, challenges such as the need for large-scale data sets, technological limitations and integration issues must be addressed to fully realise these benefits. Digital twins represent a promising frontier in orthopaedic research and practice, with the potential to improve patient outcomes and enhance surgical precision. To enable widespread adoption, future research must focus on overcoming current challenges and further refining the integration of digital twins with AI and DL technologies. Level V.

An efficient channel recurrent Criss-cross attention network for epileptic seizure prediction

Epilepsy is a chronic disease caused by repeated abnormal discharge of neurons in the brain. Accurately predicting the onset of epilepsy can effectively improve the quality of life for patients with the condition. While there are many methods for detecting epilepsy, EEG is currently considered one of the most effective analytical tools due to the abundant information it provides about brain activity. The aim of this study is to explore potential time-frequency and channel features from multi-channel epileptic EEG signals and to develop a patient-specific seizure prediction network. In this paper, an epilepsy EEG signal classification algorithm called Channel Recurrent Criss-cross Attention Network (CRCANet) is proposed. Firstly, the spectrograms processed by the short-time fourier transform is input into a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Then, the spectrogram feature map obtained in the previous step is input into the channel attention module to establish correlations between channels. Subsequently, the feature diagram containing channel attention characteristics is input into the recurrent criss-cross attention module to enhance the information content of each pixel. Finally, two fully connected layers are used for classification. We validated the method on 13 patients in the public CHB-MIT scalp EEG dataset, achieving an average accuracy of 93.8 %, sensitivity of 94.3 %, and specificity of 93.5 %. The experimental results indicate that CRCANet can effectively capture the time-frequency and channel characteristics of EEG signals while improving training efficiency.

Patient-Specific Prediction of Immediate Phase Lung Microwave Ablation Zone Size

PurposeTo investigate the effect of patient and tumor-specific characteristics on the size of immediate phase lung microwave ablation (MWA) zone and establish a prediction model. Materials and MethodsThis institutional review board (IRB)–approved, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)–compliant cohort included 164 lesions from 99 patients who underwent computed tomography (CT)–guided lung MWA, and the 2-dimensional elliptical ground-glass opacity ablation zone was measured. Duration, maximum temperature, tumor depth, presence of emphysema, history of ipsilateral lung ablation, surgery, and radiotherapy were recorded. K-fold cross validation with k = 5 and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator were used to build prediction models for the major and minor axes and area of the ablation zone. ResultsThe median of immediate phase ablation duration was 2 minutes (interquartile range, 1.5–4.25 minutes) with 65 W of power for all ablations. The mean major and minor axes and area of ablation zone were 3.1 cm (SD ± 0.6), 2.0 cm (SD ± 0.5), and 5.1 cm2 (SD ± 2.1), respectively. The major and minor axes and area of immediate phase ablation zone dimensions were significantly associated with duration (P < .001, P < .001, and P < .001, respectively), maximum temperature (P < .001, P < .001, and P < .001, respectively), tumor depth (P = .387, P < .001, and P < .001, respectively), history of ipsilateral lung ablation (P = .008, P = .286, and P = .076, respectively), and lung radiotherapy (P = .001, P = .042, and P = .015, respectively). The prediction model showed R2 values for major and minor axes and area of the ablation zone to be 0.50, 0.45, and 0.53, respectively. ConclusionsDuration of ablation, maximum temperature, tumor depth, history of ipsilateral lung ablation, surgery, and radiotherapy were significantly associated with the ablation zone dimensions and size and can be used to build the prediction model to approximate the immediate phase lung MWA zone.

Classifier Combination Supported by the Sleep-Wake Cycle Improves EEG Seizure Prediction Performance.

Seizure prediction is a promising solution to improve the quality of life for drug-resistant patients, which concerns nearly 30% of patients with epilepsy. The present study aimed to ascertain the impact of incorporating sleep-wake information in seizure prediction. We developed five patient-specific prediction approaches that use vigilance state information differently: i) using it as an input feature, ii) building a pool of two classifiers, each with different weights to sleep/wake training samples, iii) building a pool of two classifiers, each with only sleep/wake samples, iv) changing the alarm-threshold concerning each sleep/wake state, and v) adjusting the alarm-threshold after a sleep-wake transition. We compared these approaches with a control method that did not integrate sleep-wake information. Our models were tested with data (43 seizures and 482 hours) acquired during presurgical monitoring of 17 patients from the EPILEPSIAE database. As EPILEPSIAE does not contain vigilance state annotations, we developed a sleep-wake classifier using 33 patients diagnosed with nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy from the CAP Sleep database. Although different patients may require different strategies, our best approach, the pool of weighted predictors, obtained 65% of patients performing above chance level with a surrogate analysis (against 41% in the control method). The inclusion of vigilance state information improves seizure prediction. Higher results and testing with long-term recordings from daily-life conditions are necessary to ensure clinical acceptance. As automated sleep-wake detection is possible, it would be feasible to incorporate these algorithms into future devices for seizure prediction.

On the performance of seizure prediction machine learning methods across different databases: the sample and alarm-based perspectives.

Epilepsy affects 1% of the global population, with approximately one-third of patients resistant to anti-seizure medications (ASMs), posing risks of physical injuries and psychological issues. Seizure prediction algorithms aim to enhance the quality of life for these individuals by providing timely alerts. This study presents a patient-specific seizure prediction algorithm applied to diverse databases (EPILEPSIAE, CHB-MIT, AES, and Epilepsy Ecosystem). The proposed algorithm undergoes a standardized framework, including data preprocessing, feature extraction, training, testing, and postprocessing. Various databases necessitate adaptations in the algorithm, considering differences in data availability and characteristics. The algorithm exhibited variable performance across databases, taking into account sensitivity, FPR/h, specificity, and AUC score. This study distinguishes between sample-based approaches, which often yield better results by disregarding the temporal aspect of seizures, and alarm-based approaches, which aim to simulate real-life conditions but produce less favorable outcomes. Statistical assessment reveals challenges in surpassing chance levels, emphasizing the rarity of seizure events. Comparative analyses with existing studies highlight the complexity of standardized assessments, given diverse methodologies and dataset variations. Rigorous methodologies aiming to simulate real-life conditions produce less favorable outcomes, emphasizing the importance of realistic assumptions and comprehensive, long-term, and systematically structured datasets for future research.

An Efficient Epilepsy Prediction Model on European Dataset with Model Evaluation Considering Seizure Types.

This paper develops a computationally efficient model for automatic patient-specific seizure prediction using a two-layer LSTM from multichannel intracranial electroencephalogram time-series data. We decrease the number of parameters by employing a smaller input size and fewer electrodes, thereby making the model a viable option for wearable and implantable devices. We test the proposed prediction model on 26 patients from the European iEEG dataset, which is the largest epileptic seizure dataset. We also apply an automatic preprocessing technique based on a common average reference to remove artifacts from this dataset. The simulation results show that the model with its simple structure in conjunction with the mean post-processing procedure performed the best, with an average AUC of 0.885. This study is the first that utilizes the European database for epilepsy prediction application and the first that analyzes the effect of the seizure type on the system performance and demonstrates that the seizure type has a considerable impact.

Clinical Validation of Mathematically Derived Early Tumor Dynamics for Solid Tumors in Response to Durvalumab.

Early prediction of response to immunotherapy may help guide patient management by identifying resistance to treatment and allowing adaptation of therapies. This analysis evaluated a mathematical model of response to immunotherapy that provides patient-specific prediction of outcome using the initial change in tumor size/burden from baseline to the first follow-up visit on standard imaging scans. We applied the model to 600 patients with advanced solid tumors who received durvalumab in Study 1108, a phase I/II trial, and compared outcome prediction performance versus size-based criteria with RECIST version 1.1 best overall response (BOR), baseline circulating tumor (ct)DNA level, and other clinical/pathologic predictors of immunotherapy response. In multiple solid tumors, the mathematical parameter representing net tumor growth rate at the first on-treatment computed tomography (CT) scan assessed around 6 weeks after starting durvalumab (α1) had a concordance index to predict overall survival (OS) of 0.66-0.77 on multivariate analyses. This measurement of early tumor dynamics significantly improved multivariate OS models that included standard RECIST v1.1 criteria, baseline ctDNA levels, and other clinical/pathologic factors in predicting OS. Furthermore, α1 was assessed consistently at the first on-treatment CT scan, whereas all traditional RECIST BOR groups were confirmed only after this time. These results support further exploring α1 as an integral biomarker of response to immunotherapy. This biomarker may be predictive of further benefit and can be assessed before RECIST response groups can be assigned, potentially providing an opportunity to personalize oncologic management.

Addressing data limitations in seizure prediction through transfer learning

According to the literature, seizure prediction models should be developed following a patient-specific approach. However, seizures are usually very rare events, meaning the number of events that may be used to optimise seizure prediction approaches is limited. To overcome such constraint, we analysed the possibility of using data from patients from an external database to improve patient-specific seizure prediction models. We present seizure prediction models trained using a transfer learning procedure. We trained a deep convolutional autoencoder using electroencephalogram data from 41 patients collected from the EPILEPSIAE database. Then, a bidirectional long short-term memory and a classifier layers were added on the top of the encoder part and were optimised for 24 patients from the Universitätsklinikum Freiburg individually. The encoder was used as a feature extraction module. Therefore, its weights were not changed during the patient-specific training. Experimental results showed that seizure prediction models optimised using pretrained weights present about four times fewer false alarms while maintaining the same ability to predict seizures and achieved more 13% validated patients. Therefore, results evidenced that the optimisation using transfer learning was more stable and faster, saving computational resources. In summary, adopting transfer learning for seizure prediction models represents a significant advancement. It addresses the data limitation seen in the seizure prediction field and offers more efficient and stable training, conserving computational resources. Additionally, despite the compact size, transfer learning allows to easily share data knowledge due to fewer ethical restrictions and lower storage requirements. The convolutional autoencoder developed in this study will be shared with the scientific community, promoting further research.

Patient-specific temperature distribution prediction in laser interstitial thermal therapy: single-irradiation data-driven method

Laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) is popular for treating brain tumours and epilepsy. The strict control of tissue thermal damage extent is crucial for LITT. Temperature prediction is useful for predicting thermal damage extent. Accurately predicting in vivo brain tissue temperature is challenging due to the temperature dependence and the individual variations in tissue properties. Considering these factors is essential for improving the temperature prediction accuracy. Objective. To present a method for predicting patient-specific tissue temperature distribution within a target lesion area in the brain during LITT. Approach. A magnetic resonance temperature imaging (MRTI) data-driven estimation model was constructed and combined with a modified Pennes bioheat transfer equation (PBHE) to predict patient-specific temperature distribution. In the PBHE for temperature prediction, the individual specificity and temperature dependence of thermal tissue properties and blood perfusion, as well as the individual specificity of optical tissue properties were considered. Only MRTI data during one laser irradiation were required in the method. This enables the prediction of patient-specific temperature distribution and the resulting thermal damage region for subsequent ablations. Main results. Patient-specific temperature prediction was evaluated based on clinical data acquired during LITT in the brain, using intraoperative MRTI data as the reference standard. Our method significantly improved the prediction performance of temperature distribution and thermal damage region. The average root mean square error was decreased by 69.54%, the average intraclass correlation coefficient was increased by 37.5%, the average Dice similarity coefficient was increased by 43.14% for thermal damage region prediction. Significance. The proposed method can predict temperature distribution and thermal damage region at an individual patient level during LITT, providing a promising approach to assist in patient-specific treatment planning for LITT in the brain.

2729: Machine learning model for patient-specific QA prediction in stereotactic radiosurgery

2729: Machine learning model for patient-specific QA prediction in stereotactic radiosurgery

Concept-drifts adaptation for machine learning EEG epilepsy seizure prediction.

Seizure prediction remains a challenge, with approximately 30% of patients unresponsive to conventional treatments. Addressing this issue is crucial for improving patients' quality of life, as timely intervention can mitigate the impact of seizures. In this research field, it is critical to identify the preictal interval, the transition from regular brain activity to a seizure. While previous studies have explored various Electroencephalogram (EEG) based methodologies for prediction, few have been clinically applicable. Recent studies have underlined the dynamic nature of EEG data, characterised by data changes with time, known as concept drifts, highlighting the need for automated methods to detect and adapt to these changes. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of automatic concept drift adaptation methods in seizure prediction. Three patient-specific seizure prediction approaches with a 10-minute prediction horizon are compared: a seizure prediction algorithm incorporating a window adjustment method by optimising performance with Support Vector Machines (Backwards-Landmark Window), a seizure prediction algorithm incorporating a data-batch (seizures) selection method using a logistic regression (Seizure-batch Regression), and a seizure prediction algorithm with a dynamic integration of classifiers (Dynamic Weighted Ensemble). These methods incorporate a retraining process after each seizure and use a combination of univariate linear features and SVM classifiers. The Firing Power was used as a post-processing technique to generate alarms before seizures. These methodologies were compared with a control approach based on the typical machine learning pipeline, considering a group of 37 patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy from the EPILEPSIAE database. The best-performing approach (Backwards-Landmark Window) achieved results of 0.75 ± 0.33 for sensitivity and 1.03 ± 1.00 for false positive rate per hour. This new strategy performed above chance for 89% of patients with the surrogate predictor, whereas the control approach only validated 46%.

Abstract 907: ScreenDL: A transfer learning framework integrating tumor omics and functional drug screening for personalized clinical drug response prediction

Abstract Precision oncology hinges on accurate prediction of patient-specific treatment response from tumor molecular inputs. While deep learning (DL) models achieve state-of-the-art response prediction in cell lines, existing methods do not readily translate to the clinic where training data is limited. Here, we have developed and validated ScreenDL, a novel DL framework designed explicitly for use in clinical precision oncology applications. The underlying architecture of ScreenDL consists of two fully connected branches dedicated to learning rich embeddings of a drug’s chemical structure and a tumor’s transcriptomic profile respectively. These tumor omic and drug molecular embeddings are fed into a shared response prediction subnetwork which outputs predicted ln(IC50) values. The ScreenDL training schema incorporates three phases, each designed to improve clinical response prediction: (1) an initial pretraining phase leverages large-scale cell line pharmacogenomic datasets to extract patterns/relationships linking tumor omics and drug response; (2) subsequent transfer learning integrates pharmacogenomic data from patient-derived models of cancer, adapting the pretrained model to a more patient-relevant context; (3) patient-level omics and drug screening data (e.g., from matched patient-derived organoid (PDO) models) is integrated through patient-specific fine-tuning, generating a patient-specific response prediction model. Importantly, biomaterial from surgical tumor resection is often available for organoid establishment and patient-specific drug screening in practical clinical scenarios. To assess the utility of our ScreenDL framework for clinical response prediction, we applied ScreenDL to predict treatment response in 50 advanced/metastatic triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) patient-derived xenograft models (PDX). We leveraged tumor omics profiles for each PDX and drug screening data from matched PDX-derived organoids (PDxOs), mirroring the combination of patient-level tumor omic characterization and functional drug screening in matched PDOs, a protocol currently being piloted in Functional Precision Oncology trials at the University of Utah Huntsman Cancer Institute. After cell line pretraining, ScreenDL achieves a modest median Pearson correlation per drug of 0.15 relative to 0.03 for the leading compared model. However, transfer learning and subsequent PDX-specific fine-tuning significantly improve performance, producing median Pearson correlations per drug of 0.39 and 0.51, respectively. These results demonstrate the ability of our ScreenDL framework to dramatically improve response prediction in clinically relevant domains, bringing DL-based precision treatment selection closer to clinical application. Citation Format: Casey Sederman, Tonya Di Sera, Yi Qiao, Xiaomeng Huang, Bryan E. Welm, Alana L. Welm, Gabor Marth. ScreenDL: A transfer learning framework integrating tumor omics and functional drug screening for personalized clinical drug response prediction [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 907.

Application of Data-Driven computing to patient-specific prediction of the viscoelastic response of human brain under transcranial ultrasound stimulation.

We present a class of model-free Data-Driven solvers that effectively enable the utilization of in situ and in vivo imaging data directly in full-scale calculations of the mechanical response of the human brain to sonic and ultrasonic stimulation, entirely bypassing the need for analytical modeling or regression of the data. The well-posedness of the approach and its convergence with respect to data are proven analytically. We demonstrate the approach, including its ability to make detailed spatially resolved patient-specific predictions of wave patterns, using public-domain MRI images, MRE data and commercially available solid-mechanics software.

Mortality risk prediction for primary appendiceal cancer

BackgroundAccurately predicting survival in patients with cancer is crucial for both clinical decision-making and patient counseling. The primary aim of this study was to generate the first machine-learning algorithm to predict the risk of mortality following the diagnosis of an appendiceal neoplasm. MethodsPatients with primary appendiceal cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2000 to 2019 were included. Patient demographics, tumor characteristics, and survival data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Extreme gradient boost, random forest, neural network, and logistic regression machine learning models were employed to predict 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality. After algorithm validation, the best-performance model was used to develop a patient-specific web-based risk prediction model. ResultsA total of 16,579 patients were included in the study, with 13,262 in the training group (80%) and 3,317 in the validation group (20%). Extreme gradient boost exhibited the highest prediction accuracy for 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality, with the 10-year model exhibiting the maximum area under the curve (0.909 [±0.006]) after 10-fold cross-validation. Variables that significantly influenced the predictive ability of the model were disease grade, malignant carcinoid histology, incidence of positive regional lymph nodes, number of nodes harvested, and presence of distant disease. ConclusionHere, we report the development and validation of a novel prognostic prediction model for patients with appendiceal neoplasms of numerous histologic subtypes that incorporate a vast array of patient, surgical, and pathologic variables. By using machine learning, we achieved an excellent predictive accuracy that was superior to that of previous nomograms.

Comparison between epileptic seizure prediction and forecasting based on machine learning

Epilepsy affects around 1% of the population worldwide. Anti-epileptic drugs are an excellent option for controlling seizure occurrence but do not work for around one-third of patients. Warning devices employing seizure prediction or forecasting algorithms could bring patients new-found comfort and quality of life. These algorithms would attempt to detect a seizure’s preictal period, a transitional moment between regular brain activity and the seizure, and relay this information to the user. Over the years, many seizure prediction studies using Electroencephalogram-based methodologies have been developed, triggering an alarm when detecting the preictal period. Recent studies have suggested a shift in view from prediction to forecasting. Seizure forecasting takes a probabilistic approach to the problem in question instead of the crisp approach of seizure prediction. In this field of study, the triggered alarm to symbolize the detection of a preictal period is substituted by a constant risk assessment analysis. The present work aims to explore methodologies capable of seizure forecasting and establish a comparison with seizure prediction results. Using 40 patients from the EPILEPSIAE database, we developed several patient-specific prediction and forecasting algorithms with different classifiers (a Logistic Regression, a 15 Support Vector Machines ensemble, and a 15 Shallow Neural Networks ensemble). Results show an increase of the seizure sensitivity in forecasting relative to prediction of up to 146% and in the number of patients that displayed an improvement over chance of up to 300%. These results suggest that a seizure forecasting methodology may be more suitable for seizure warning devices than a seizure prediction one.

Evaluation of Contractile Function Using Human iPS Cell-derived Cardiomyocytes

Cardiotoxicity induced by anti-cancer drugs is a significant concern for patients undergoing cancer treatment. Some anti-cancer drugs can damage cardiac muscle cells directly or indirectly, potentially leading to severe heart failure. Various risk factors, including the type and dosage of chemotherapy agents as well as patient background, contribute to the development of cardiotoxicity. Human-induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs), which enable patient-specific toxicity prediction, hold great promise in this regard. However, the practical implementation of hiPSC-CMs-based prediction of anti-cancer drug-induced cardiotoxicity still faces hurdles. One major challenge involves establishing and optimizing experimental systems for evaluating contractile dysfunction, the ultimate output of heart failure, using hiPSC-CMs. Such efforts are currently underway globally, focusing on tailoring functional evaluation systems to the characteristics of hiPSC-CMs. In this paper, we provide an overview of the contraction mechanisms of cardiac cells and introduce a method of measuring contraction that we have developed, and discuss the current status of contractile function evaluation methods using hiPSC-CMs.