Comparison between epileptic seizure prediction and forecasting based on machine learning

Abstract

Epilepsy affects around 1% of the population worldwide. Anti-epileptic drugs are an excellent option for controlling seizure occurrence but do not work for around one-third of patients. Warning devices employing seizure prediction or forecasting algorithms could bring patients new-found comfort and quality of life. These algorithms would attempt to detect a seizure’s preictal period, a transitional moment between regular brain activity and the seizure, and relay this information to the user. Over the years, many seizure prediction studies using Electroencephalogram-based methodologies have been developed, triggering an alarm when detecting the preictal period. Recent studies have suggested a shift in view from prediction to forecasting. Seizure forecasting takes a probabilistic approach to the problem in question instead of the crisp approach of seizure prediction. In this field of study, the triggered alarm to symbolize the detection of a preictal period is substituted by a constant risk assessment analysis. The present work aims to explore methodologies capable of seizure forecasting and establish a comparison with seizure prediction results. Using 40 patients from the EPILEPSIAE database, we developed several patient-specific prediction and forecasting algorithms with different classifiers (a Logistic Regression, a 15 Support Vector Machines ensemble, and a 15 Shallow Neural Networks ensemble). Results show an increase of the seizure sensitivity in forecasting relative to prediction of up to 146% and in the number of patients that displayed an improvement over chance of up to 300%. These results suggest that a seizure forecasting methodology may be more suitable for seizure warning devices than a seizure prediction one.