Past Period Research Articles

DISORDER STRATEGY ACCORDING TO THE ENTRANCES OF THE NEW DEMOCRACY IN NAJAF ARCHITECTURE AFTER 2003

The events leave a lot of repercussions on city's architecture as a representation of the stations of ideological change reflected in what is happening to society in economic, political, scientific and social changes. After 2003 events in An-Najaf Al-Ashraf city had a great impact on its architecture resulted by the effect of continuous transformations during the past period in all the levels, as well as the progress, technological development and sudden openness to the west world. Therefore, the lack of contemporary knowledge of the strategies role that used for reconstruction in the emergence of architectural production during the past two decades in its current form, the research problem came as follows (the lack of knowledge of the strategy of disorder within the entrances to new democracy and the loss of local capabilities to observe its impact on architecture in the city of Najaf after 2003). The purpose of this study (investigating the effect of the strategy of chaos associated with the events following 2003 on architectural output in An Najaf city, and proposing a method of achieving local identity continuity in the city and its communication with residents). The conclusions of the study were appropriate for proposing a strategy for the reconstruction of the city and the continuation of its construction through the use of the field survey method. This was accomplished by distributing a questionnaire to a sample of architects in the city of Najaf, as they are familiar with the movement of architecture in the city. The concept of the study of disorganization strategy had a definitive conceptualization of its impact on the architecture of the holy city of Najaf, along with a proposal of the blue-green infrastructure strategy as a suitable strategy for the reconstruction of the city.

PROSPECTS FOR THE USE OF MULTIFACTOR MODELS IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF TOURIST DESTINATIONS

The article discusses the mechanisms of managing the activities of tourist destinations in the field of tourism, which in recent years have the opportunity to develop rapidly in the structure of the national economy. In the course of the study, analyzed the methods of research and development of the activities of tourist destinations and evaluated the directions of changes in the next period on the basis of multifactor regression, based on time series representing the activities of tourist destinations in the regions over the past period. At the same time, evaluated the quality of the developed multifactor model and determined forecast indicators for the short-term period. As a result of the conducted research, determined priorities for the development and management of tourist destinations in the country.

Effects of redox variability and early diagenesis on marine sedimentary Hg records

Volcanism is a dominant natural source of mercury (Hg) to the atmosphere, biosphere, ocean and sediments. In recent years, sedimentary Hg contents have emerged as a tool to reconstruct volcanic activity, and particularly activity of (subaerially emplaced) large igneous provinces in geological deep time. More specifically, Hg has shown potential as a useful proxy to illuminate the previously elusive impact of such large-scale volcanism on marine and terrestrial paleo-environments. While Hg is now widely applied as volcanism tracer, non-volcanic factors controlling sedimentary Hg content are generally not well constrained. Part of this uncertainty stems from our inability to directly observe a natural unperturbed “steady-state” environment as a baseline, as the modern Hg cycle is heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity. Here we focus on the effects of ambient redox conditions in the water column and shallow sediments (early diagenesis), quantify their influence on the geological Hg record and thereby contribute to constraining their potential impact on the use of Hg as a proxy for deep-time volcanic activity. Constraining these factors is of critical importance for the application of Hg as such a proxy. Many periods in the geological past for which records have been generated, such as the Mesozoic Oceanic Anoxic Events, are marked by a variety of high-amplitude environmental perturbations, including widespread deoxygenation and deposition of organic-rich sediments. We estimate the impact of redox changes and early diagenesis on the geological Hg record using a suite of (sub)recent–Pleistocene and Upper Cretaceous sediments representing oxic to euxinic marine conditions. Our sample set includes a transect through an oxygen minimum zone and cores that record transient shifts in oxygenation state, as well as post-depositional effects – all unrelated to volcanism, to the best of our knowledge. We find substantial alterations to the Hg record and the total organic carbon and total sulfur content, which are typically assumed to be the most common carrier phases of Hg in marine sediments. Moreover, these biases can lead to signal alteration on a par with those interpreted to result from volcanic activity. Geochemical modifications are ubiquitous and their potential magnitude implies that the factors leading to biases in the geological record warrant careful consideration before interpretation. Factors of particular concern to proxy application are (1) the disproportionate loss of organic carbon and sulfur relative to Hg during oxidation that strongly modulates normalized Hg records, (2) the evasion of Hg in anoxic and mildly euxinic sediments and (3) sharp focusing of Hg during post-depositional oxidation of organic matter. We suggest that paired analyses of additional redox-sensitive trace elements such as molybdenum, and organic-matter characteristics, particularly the type of organic matter, could provide first-order constraints on the role that redox and diagenetic changes played in shaping the Hg record as part of checking the attribution of enrichments to volcanic activity.

Bridging the gap between pricing and reserving with an occurrence and development model for non-life insurance claims

AbstractDue to the presence of reporting and settlement delay, claim data sets collected by non-life insurance companies are typically incomplete, facing right censored claim count and claim severity observations. Current practice in non-life insurance pricing tackles these right censored data via a two-step procedure. First, best estimates are computed for the number of claims that occurred in past exposure periods and the ultimate claim severities, using the incomplete, historical claim data. Second, pricing actuaries build predictive models to estimate technical, pure premiums for new contracts by treating these best estimates as actual observed outcomes, hereby neglecting their inherent uncertainty. We propose an alternative approach that brings valuable insights for both non-life pricing and reserving. As such, we effectively bridge these two key actuarial tasks that have traditionally been discussed in silos. Hereto, we develop a granular occurrence and development model for non-life claims that tackles reserving and at the same time resolves the inconsistency in traditional pricing techniques between actual observations and imputed best estimates. We illustrate our proposed model on an insurance as well as a reinsurance portfolio. The advantages of our proposed strategy are most compelling in the reinsurance illustration where large uncertainties in the best estimates originate from long reporting and settlement delays, low claim frequencies and heavy (even extreme) claim sizes.

Past to Future Drylands in China: A Multimodel Analysis Using CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract Using the multimodel simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we investigate the aridity changes in China and the associated mechanisms during the three geological periods of the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid-Holocene (MH), as well as the three future scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The aridity index is used to measure terrestrial moisture, which combines the effects of both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with the latter representing the amount of water consumed by the atmosphere. The results show that relative to the preindustrial period, the total dryland area in China varies by −15%, 6%, and −13% during the LIG, LGM, and MH, respectively, and slightly varies in the three future scenarios. Over China, LGM dryland expansion and future dryland contraction are mainly attributed to precipitation changes, MH dryland contraction is mainly caused by PET changes, and LIG dryland contraction is comparably caused by PET and precipitation changes. For the LGM and three future scenarios, temperature is the leading factor of PET changes, while during the MH and LIG, the change in relative humidity is the main factor. In comparison, the simulated aridity changes in China are generally consistent with the reconstructed moisture changes for the three past periods, although uncertainties exist in reconstructions during the LGM and MH.

Changes in Summer Precipitation Modes over Eastern China in Simulated Warm Intervals of the Last Interglacial, Mid-Holocene, and Twenty-First Century

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and associated summer precipitation patterns over eastern China have exhibited interannual and interdecadal variations in recent decades, but whether the precipitation modes vary with climate conditions remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the changes in summer precipitation modes over eastern China and associated mechanisms in simulated past and future warm periods, namely, the last interglacial (LIG), mid-Holocene, and the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) based on representative concentration pathway 8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenario, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The model evaluation indicates that only one out of nine CMIP6 models, specifically the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), can well reproduce the observed summer precipitation modes at the present. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of the CESM2 simulations reveal that during the warm periods induced by either orbital parameters or greenhouse gas concentrations, the first leading mode of summer precipitation switches from its present meridional tripolar structure to a dipole pattern, and the second leading mode is generally a meridional tripolar mode that differs from the present dipole pattern. This summer precipitation regime interchange in the warm intervals is associated with the formation of the dipole and tripolar circulation patterns. The large-scale circulation changes responsible for the altered precipitation modes are attributed to the enhanced EASM and relevant southerly winds due to intensified land–sea thermal contrast, although the external forcings and the magnitude of EASM enhancement are different in the interglacial and future periods.

Incentives for prosocial behavior under reputation persistence and policy lags

In this paper we show that a policy based on incentives to promote prosocial activities can be counterproductive in a context where the agents’ reputation exhibits persistence over time and there exists a time lag between announcement of the policy and implementation. Reputation persistence in our model means that the reputation gained in past periods constrains the possibilities of changing reputation in the future. We present a two-period model in which agents use prosocial activities to signal their degree of altruism. If a subsidy is established for the second period, the set of agents that undertake social activities in that period enlarges. This worsens the reputation of the most altruistic agents, some of whom then react by decreasing their involvement in prosocial activities in the first period. We identify a condition under which subsidies cause a decrease in the global supply of pro-social activities.

THE RULE-OF-LAW STATE: MODELING, DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

The concept of the rule-of-law state in Russia, analyzed by F.A. Vestov and other authors, remains relevant today. The existence of numerous historical and legal approaches to the category of «rule-of-law state» is impressive. Taking into account the rapid changes in Russia’s foreign and national policy, significant scientific results can be obtained by analyzing the values of the rule-of-law state. This analysis is interesting, in particular, in the area of state counteraction to transnational crimes. The purpose of the research is to identify innovative trajectories for the development of the concept of the rule-of-law state, to develop algorithms for solving some modern problems. The following research methods are applied: observation, comparison, experiment, abstraction. The main conclusions: for a long period of national history, the only methodology of Marxism-Leninism was used to analyze the category of the rule-of-law state. It may be promising to compare the scientific achievements of the past period of history with the results of modern researches carried out using other methodologies. The maximal rejection of the class approach in the analysis of the values of the rule-of-law state can give a serious impetus to the further development of this theory. The inverse phenomena of globalization – anti-globalization that came to Russia after the processes of globalization can also have a significant impact on the interpretation of the concept of the rule-of-law state. This is particularly evident in the analysis of the process of organizing and implementing the fight against transnational crimes. The analysis of this sphere of social relations requires a new look at the concept of the separation of powers in modern Russian reality.

Demographic, Reproductive, and Medical Risk Factors for Intrauterine Device Expulsion

ABSTRACT Intrauterine device (IUD) expulsion is more common among women with heavy menstrual bleeding, parity, higher body mass index (BMI), younger age, dysmenorrhea, or immediate postabortion or postpartum insertion. The APEX-IUD study was an observational cohort study of 326,658 individuals examining the association with breastfeeding, IUD type, and timing of postpartum IUD insertion with IUD expulsion and uterine perforation. This data set provides an opportunity to examine specific demographic, reproductive, and medical risk factors associated with IUD expulsion. This analysis of APEX-IUD data aimed to determine the associations of 6 risk factors (age, race/ethnicity, parity, BMI, heavy menstrual bleeding, and dysmenorrhea) and IUD expulsion, as well as the extent to which these associations differed for LNG-IUD compared with copper IUD users. Individuals aged 50 years or younger at the time of IUD insertion without a delivery 52 weeks or less before insertion were included. Individuals were followed from IUD insertion until IUD expulsion, uterine perforation, removal, reinsertion, expiration, pregnancy, hysterectomy, death, disenrollment from the health care system, or end of study period (June 2018). Crude incidence rates for each risk factor category were calculated using the number of expulsions during the time at risk divided by the total person-years at risk and were reported as the number of expulsions per 1000 person-years at risk. Hazards ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals from Cox regression models were used to evaluate associations of the risk factors with IUD expulsion. These models were adjusted for potential confounding effects and were separately used to assess the association of covariates with IUD expulsion varied by IUD type. The total study cohort included 228,834 individuals (LNG-IUD: 184,733 [80.7%]; copper IUD: 41,123 [18.0%]; unknown type: 2978 [1/3%]). The average length of follow-up was 2.0 years, and there were 6762 expulsions with a crude incidence rate of 14.9 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 14.6–15.3). Adjusted hazards ratios (aHRs) showed the younger age groups having a higher risk of IUD expulsion and a trend toward lower aHRs with increasing age. Individuals with parity of 4 or more had the highest risk of IUD expulsion, and a parity of 2 was associated with the lowest risk on adjusted analysis. Adjusted analysis revealed a greater risk of IUD expulsion among individuals with higher BMI or heavy menstrual bleeding diagnosis compared with the comparator group. Multiple racial and ethnic groups including non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic Black, Hispanic White, Asian, or Pacific Islander were associated with a greater risk of IUD expulsion compared with non-Hispanic Whites when adjusting for covariates. When comparing aHRs by copper IUD or LNG-IUD; younger age was more strongly associated with expulsion among copper IUD users than LNG-IUD users, the risk for expulsion associated with obesity was significantly attenuated for copper IUD users compared with LNG-IUD users, and the risk of expulsion for those with heavy menstrual bleeding was partially attenuated by copper IUDs. Adjusted analysis revealed no association between dysmenorrhea and IUD expulsion. The results of this study show that, among the 6 risk factors investigated here, the risk of IUD expulsion was highest among individuals with a diagnosis of heavy menstrual bleeding, particularly in recent and past periods.

Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on peak discharge and flood volume in the Qaran Talar watershed, Iran

Abstract This study evaluates the effects of climate change (CC) on runoff properties over the case study of the Qaran Talar watershed located in Iran. To consider the two main sources of uncertainty, i.e., Greenhouse Gases emission (GHG) scenarios and outputs of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), a daily rainfall time series was generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2070-2099) at three risk levels of 0.1, 0.25 and 0.50. 22 AOGCMs outputs following two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used. The results showed that the uncertainty of climate change scenarios was primarily owing to the uncertainty of GCMs outputs. Regarding the 2021-2050 period, under both emission scenarios, the increases in peak discharge and flood volume (FV) were estimated to reach 70, 50, and 30% at three risk levels of 0.1, 0.25 and 0.50, respectively, compared to the recent past period. As the current century draws to a close, the difference between the results of the two emission scenarios becomes apparent so that in the far-future period (2070-2099), the RCP8.5 scenario estimates and FV more than the RCP4.5 scenario does. Additionally, it was found that the uncertainty caused by AOGCMs was more than that by GHG emission scenarios.

Risk Assessment of Water Transport Enterprises by Modeling Direct and Indirect Threats

Introduction. The methods of traffic modeling by water transport and assessing the risks associated with it is needed to identify the issues of the past period, proposing methods for assessing not only direct but also indirect risks to form the preconditions for preventing them in the postwar reconstruction. The coordination of different transport type’s actions of transport requires an assessment of risks impact of the previous stages of mixed transportation on the formation of the following risks’ stages. Existing methods of assessing such impact need to be improved.
 Aim and tasks. The aim of this study is creation of methodological approach to risk management in water transport based on a mathematical model for assessing the impact of both direct and indirect risks. The tasks are: to prove that the additive approach of taking risks into account leads to the systematic deviation appearance from the result; take into account the impact on the risk of cargo transportation.
 Results. It has proved that the calculation of risk as an additive function leads to a systematic deviation from the relevant result. It stated that the risk of each of the next stages of transportation depends on the risks of the previous stages. To increase risk analysis relevance in water transport, the use of an oriented graph in a multidimensional parameter space proposed. It stated that in order to calculate the integrated risk, it is essential building not only the risk matrix but also the risk incidence matrix to take into account their relation to business entities. It established the impact of even minor risks could take the form of a catastrophe, which leads to cargo flows reorientation. It established that: for calculation of integral risk, it is crucial consider direct and indirect influences of risks; risk calculation for water transport also requires risk analysis in related modes of transport.
 Conclusions. It was established that, when calculating integral risk, it is necessary to consider direct and indirect influences on risks and that the risk calculation for water transport also requires risk analysis in related modes of transport. The proposed approach significantly increases the relevance of water transport risk analysis and allows for managing changes in transportation routes in real time.

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Indian Ocean exhibits multiple modes of interannual climate variability, whose future behaviour is uncertain. Recent analysis of glacial climates has uncovered an additional El Niño-like equatorial mode in the Indian Ocean, which could also emerge in future warm states. Here we explore changes in the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). These simulations are performed by an ensemble of models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and over four coordinated experiments: three past periods – the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago), the last interglacial (127 000 years ago) – and an idealized forcing scenario to examine the impact of greenhouse forcing. The two interglacial experiments are used to characterize the role of orbital variations in the seasonal cycle, whilst the other pair focus on responses to large changes in global temperature. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) is damped in both the mid-Holocene and last interglacial, with the amount related to the damping of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. No coherent changes in the strength of the IOBM are seen with global temperature changes; neither are changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) nor the Niño-like mode. Under orbital forcing, the IOD robustly weakens during the mid-Holocene experiment, with only minor reductions in amplitude during the last interglacial. Orbital changes do impact the SST pattern of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with the cold pole reaching up to the Equator and extending along it. Induced changes in the regional seasonality are hypothesized to be an important control on changes in the Indian Ocean variability.

Late Cenozoic history and the role of Beringia in assembling a Holarctic cestode species complex

The dynamic climate history that drove sea level fluctuation during past glacial periods mediated the movement of organisms between Asia and North America via the Bering Land Bridge. Investigations of the biogeographic histories of small mammals and their parasites demonstrate facets of a complex history of episodic geographic colonization and refugial isolation that structured diversity across the Holarctic. We use a large multi-locus nuclear DNA sequence dataset to robustly resolve relationships within the cestode genus Arostrilepis (Cyclophyllidea: Hymenolepididae), a widespread parasite of predominantly arvicoline rodents (voles, lemmings). Using this phylogeny, we confirm that several Asian Arostrilepis lineages colonized North America during up to four distinct glacial periods in association with different rodent hosts, consistent with taxon-pulse dynamics. A previously inferred westward dispersal across the land bridge is rejected. We also refine interpretations of past host colonization, providing evidence for several distinct episodes of expanding host range, which probably contributed to diversification by Arostrilepis. Finally, Arostrilepis is shown to be paraphyletic with respect to Hymenandrya thomomyis, a parasite of pocket gophers, confirming that ancient Arostrilepis species colonized new host lineages upon arriving in North America.

Development trend of mining economy in China

In the past long period of time, China has achieved great and rapid development by relying on mineral resources. However, this development mode is extensive. In the process of mineral resources consumption, a large number of geological disasters have been caused, such as mining subsidence, landslides, etc. In addition, the emission of carbon dioxide and other pollutants has also caused environmental harm. In September 2020, China explicitly set the goal of peaking its carbon footprint by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060. Economic development needs the support of mineral resources, but also needs to ensure that the environment is not further damaged, to achieve sustainable and high-quality development is the only way. In this context, it is necessary to discuss the future development trend of China's mining economy. Based on relevant research and theoretical analysis, some suggestions on promoting sustainable development of mining economy are put forward.

Covid-19 shelter-in-place, modified reopening orders, and order compliance impact on adolescent alcohol use and drinking contexts in California: A longitudinal analysis

IntroductionThis study evaluated how Shelter-in-Place (SIP), modified reopening orders, and self-reported compliance with these orders have affected adolescent alcohol frequency and quantity of use across contexts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and MethodsDifferences-in-differences (DID) models and multi-level modeling analyses were conducted on longitudinal data collected as part of a larger study on alcohol use among adolescents in California. 1,350 adolescents at baseline contributed 7,467 observations for a baseline and 5 six-month follow-up surveys. Analytic samples ranged from 3,577–6,245 participant observations based on models. Alcohol use outcomes included participant frequency (days) and quantity (number of whole drinks) of alcohol use in past 1-month and past 6-month periods. Context-specific alcohol use outcomes included past 6-month frequency and quantity of use at: restaurants, bars/nightclubs, outside, one’s own home, another’s home, and fraternities/sororities. Participant self-reported compliance with orders in essential business/retail spaces and at outdoor/social settings were also assessed. ResultsOur DID results indicated that being under a modified reopening order was associated with decreases in past 6-month quantity of alcohol use (IRR = 0.72, CI = 0.56–0.93, p < 0.05). Higher self-reported compliance with SIP orders related to social outdoor/social settings was associated with decreases in overall drinking frequency and quantity as well as decreases in frequency and quantity of alcohol use in all contexts in the past six months. Compliance with SIP orders impacting essential businesses and retail spaces was associated with decreased frequency and quantity of use at other’s home and outdoors. ConclusionsResults suggest that SIP and modified reopening policies may not directly affect adolescent alcohol use or drinking contexts, and that individual compliance with such orders may be a protective factor for alcohol use.

Comparative Analysis of Volatility Structures of Stock Index and Energy Company Returns in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) is established on November 17, 1993, with the participation of 23 leading Kazakh banks under the leadership of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. KASE has had an important position in the country's economy since then. This study comparatively analyses the volatility structures of the return of the KASE Composite Index and the returns of the oil and energy companies traded in the KASE in the period between 5.01.2021 and 4.01.2023. The preliminary test (ARCH LM) showed that the volatility structure of the past period is effective on the current period in all four returns. Based on this finding, the structure of the series was evaluated with four different models. All four return series conformed with the GARCH-M (1, 1) model. Accordingly, the finding that oil and energy companies and the stock market composite index have the same volatility structure is important for investor decisions. Moreover, the finding that any past financial shock or volatility fluctuation affects the current return will positively affect the estimation of the future value of financial assets.

Динаміка рівнинних популяцій Symphytum cordatum Waldst. et Kit. ex Willd. у різних умовах росту

Dynamics of isolated lowland populations of the Carpathian subendemic species Symphytum cordatum Waldst. et Kit. ex Willd. at the edge of its range is investigated. They were analyzed as a case study on the prospects of the lowland populations of S. cordatum under different growth conditions. Changes in the individual and group parameters of this species during the 17-year period are studied. Characteristic-markers of endangered state of S. cordatum populations in the mountain and lowland parts of its range are established. They include: low percentage of generative group or its absence, decrease in size and numbers of clones, significant reduction of the population area, considerable decrease in density of ramets and their low biometrical parameters as well as inhibition of vegetative propagation. It was established that population near Brodky village (Stryisky region, Lviv Oblast) exhibited high individual and group parameters during a long period and is capable of expansion, which ensures survival in the long-term perspective. Negative effects of anthropogenous impact on the population of S. cordatum in the city of Lviv are revealed. During the past period the area of the population decreased 3-folds, density of generative ramets, their hight and mass – 2-folds and considerable reduction in the area and number of clones were established as well. During the last years the population has been increasingly affected intensive mowing, trampling and raking which makes it endangered. It was established that small in their area and numbers lowland populations of S. cordatum growing in unfavorable ecological and coenotic conditions are most sensitive to anthropopression. The importance of protection of S. cordatum at the edge of its range is emphasized to provide conservation of regional biodiversity and gene pool of this species. Biotope conservation must be applied for such lowland populations of montane species like S. cordatum, it would prevent disturbance to sensitive small species habitats. This may be provided by creation of local reserves.

Impacts of climate change on global total and urban runoff

Climate models consistently project that frequency, severity, and duration of hydroclimatic extremes will increase over this century under climate change. Urban flooding and runoff in general have become prominent issues for many cities and regions, arising from a combination of altered precipitation patterns, urban growth, development in floodplains, and increases in impervious surfaces. In this study, we first validate total (grid cell-level) runoff from the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) historical simulations against one observed-runoff/streamflow-based dataset and one reanalysis dataset, and further analyze both grid cell-level runoff and urban subgrid runoff under future climate change scenarios. We calculated global annual average of monthly runoff from the period 1986–1995 for the validation and calculated bias and correlation coefficients between CESM and each of the datasets. Additionally, we analyzed future grid cell and urban runoff across three CMIP6 coupled Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways – 2–4.5, 3–7.0, and 5–8.5 – and evaluated changes between the future period of 2041–2050 and the same past period of 1986–1995 for each scenario. Results show spatial consistency and robustness between the CESM simulations and both datasets. However, there is some spatial inconsistency in the areas highlighted as major runoff producers, such as the Amazon basin and Southeast Asia, as well as mountainous regions outside the United States. Grid cell-level runoff and urban runoff projections suggest that future hydroclimatic conditions will vary depending on the climate scenario. However, certain locations, such as Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Himalayan mountain range, consistently see decreases in both grid cell-level runoff and urban runoff across all scenarios, and locations such as Nigeria and Ecuador consistently see increases in both grid cell runoff and urban runoff across all scenarios. Our findings provide quantitative insights on hydrology representation in the global Earth system model and advance the understanding of the impacts of large-scale climate change on future local-scale urban runoff.

A real-time prediction interval correction method with an unscented Kalman filter for settlement monitoring of a power station dam

A prediction interval (PI) method is developed to quantify the model uncertainty of embankment settlement prediction. Traditional PIs are constructed based on specific past period information and remain unchanged; hence, they neglect discrepancies between previous calculations and new monitoring data. In this paper, a real-time prediction interval correction method is proposed. Time-varying PIs are built by continuously incorporating new measurements into model uncertainty calculations. The method consists of trend identification, PI construction, and real-time correction. Primarily, trend identification is carried out by wavelet analysis to eliminate early unstable noise and determine the settlement trend. Then, the Delta method is applied to construct PIs based on the characterized trend, and a comprehensive evaluation index is introduced. The model output and the upper and lower bounds of the PIs are updated by the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). The effect of the UKF is compared with that of the Kalman filter (KF) and extended Kalman filter (EKF). The method was demonstrated in the Qingyuan power station dam. The results show that the time-varying PIs based on trend data are smoother than those based on original data with better evaluation index scores. Also, the PIs are not affected by local anomalies. The proposed PIs are consistent with the actual measurements, and the UKF performs better than the KF and EKF. The approach has the potential to provide more reliable embankment safety assessments.

THE EFFECT OF ANCIENT GEOLOGICAL PERIODS IN BIOLOGY

At the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, extensive works began in the world for the construction of railways, and for these works, the previous biography of land is necessary. William Smith was the first scientist. The rocks found in the Somerset region from the lower layers of the earth and belong to the Jurassic period (20–144 million years ago). He compared the rocks of the coastal areas of the northern seas and using these rocks, he drew a map of the past periods of the earth in England. Even so far, the stones that came from the lower layers of the earth represented its place, that is, by using those stones, William Smith not only made a map of the past of the earth, but also a map of the lower layers of the earth. This map has a special place in the knowledge of modern geology it helps us to create a table of the past periods. From the information contained in this map, we can see the underground layers and their contents, iron, coal, etc. even if it is in the middle of the ocean. Fossils are very valuable to us. By using fossils, humans can identify the living creatures of the past times and get to know their ways of life. It can also be done by using fossils to divide the age table of the earth into cycles first and then the cycles are divided into periods. For this reason, the previous age table is first divided into periods and then the periods are divided into periods. 1. Upper Carboniferous Period; 2. Lower Carboniferous Period; 3. Middle Jurassic Period; 4. Jurassic Period and 5. Triassic Period. Keywords: Period, fossils, Evolutionary modeling, extinction, Biodiversity and organisms.