Past to Future Drylands in China: A Multimodel Analysis Using CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract

Abstract Using the multimodel simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we investigate the aridity changes in China and the associated mechanisms during the three geological periods of the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid-Holocene (MH), as well as the three future scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The aridity index is used to measure terrestrial moisture, which combines the effects of both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with the latter representing the amount of water consumed by the atmosphere. The results show that relative to the preindustrial period, the total dryland area in China varies by −15%, 6%, and −13% during the LIG, LGM, and MH, respectively, and slightly varies in the three future scenarios. Over China, LGM dryland expansion and future dryland contraction are mainly attributed to precipitation changes, MH dryland contraction is mainly caused by PET changes, and LIG dryland contraction is comparably caused by PET and precipitation changes. For the LGM and three future scenarios, temperature is the leading factor of PET changes, while during the MH and LIG, the change in relative humidity is the main factor. In comparison, the simulated aridity changes in China are generally consistent with the reconstructed moisture changes for the three past periods, although uncertainties exist in reconstructions during the LGM and MH.