Past Climate Change Research Articles

Evaluation of the Past Climate Changes Effects on Potato Growth and Yield by Modeling

Global warming and climate changes and their effects on the phenology stages and production of crops have attracted attention of researchers. We investigated the impacts of climate changes, phenology stages, yield potential as well as the effects of climate changes on the growth and development of potatoes as a stable food crop. In this study, SSM-iCrop2 simulation model methodology was used to investigate the climate change process, phenology stages, yield potential and the effects of climate changes on the growth and development of potato in 19 main meteorological stations from 1991 to 2015. The selection of meteorology stations was done based on the area under potato cultivation to implement the GYGA protocol. SAS program was used to explore the trends and slopes of the evaluable parameters, and GIS maps were used to analyze and interpret the trends and slopes. The results on potato phenological stages showed that with increasing the average of temperature, the length of planting period until the beginning of tuber formation in two meteorological stations, the period of tuber formation in four meteorological stations and the whole growing period in six meteorological stations were significantly decreased. The results also showed that the changes during the phenological stages, temperature, and radiation received during the growth caused a significant increase on yield at Shahrekord meteorological station and a significant decrease in other 6 meteorological stations. Based on the results, climatic factors had a significant effects on total yields.

Late Quaternary Dynamics of Landscape and Climate in the North of the West Siberian Plain Revealed by Paleoecological Studies of Peat and Lake Sediments

West Siberian mires covering more than 50% of area in the subarctic are still poorly investigated despite their thick peat sediments suitable for paleogeographic research of past long-term landscape and climatic changes. In this research, a combination of paleoecological methods were used, including the analysis of pollen, spores, diatoms, NPPs, and macrofossils, the measurement of peat humification, and quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. This multi-proxy approach was applied to study a palsa bog (frost peat heave mound) located in the north of western Siberia on the border of the northern taiga and forest–tundra (65°18′56″ N, 72°52′27″ E). Chronology is based on 21 radiocarbon dates, which were calibrated in CLAM. Studies have shown that sediments of palsa bog Nadym of a 1050 cm thickness were formed both in the Holocene and earlier periods of the Quaternary. Radiocarbon dating worked well for peat sequences (610 cm thick), but failed for underlying lacustrine and mineral sediments (440 cm thick). Numerous remains of salt-water diatoms and exotic Neogene pollen were found in the lacustrine sediments (650–850 cm). The oldest sediments (850–1050 cm) have signs of secondary epicryogenic diagenesis in the form of cryogenic iron-enriched granules. Both lacustrine and bottom sediments contain abundant coniferous pollen. At the same time, spore–pollen complexes dated to the Last Glacial Age were not found in low sediments because of failed dates. To explain this, the authors turn to the hypothesis of glyacioisostatic compensation, according to which the study area was uplifted during the Last Glacial Age and the ancient deposits underwent secondary diagenesis in subaerial conditions. Holocene lacustrine sedimentation began to form about 9800 cal. a BP. These lacustrine sediments turned out to be enriched in redeposited Neogene pollen and diatoms. It was interpreted as an influence of excess humid climate in combination with geological subsidence of landscape in the study area during the Early Holocene. This caused lake formation and introduction of exotic microfossils via surface run-off from higher-relief areas in the catchment. Syngenetic sedimentation in the Nadym section is associated only with peat-mire deposits covering the last 8400 cal. a BP. For this time, the dynamic of vegetation cover and quantitative changes in paleoclimate were reconstructed using spore–pollen, macrofossil, humus, and NPP data as well as the information–statistical method of V.A. Klimanov. The spore–pollen analysis revealed four main phases in the development of vegetation cover: 1. Spruce–birch forests with open meadows and lakes (8400–7600 cal. a BP); 2. Dominance of spruce forests and thawed eutrophic (minerotrophic) mires (7600 to 6500 cal. a BP); 3. Coniferous–birch forests and thawed mesotrophic mires (6500 to 4500 cal. a BP); 4. Birch–pine forests and oligotrophic (ombrotrophic) bogs with permafrost mounds—palsa bogs (approx. the last 4500 years). Quantitative reconstructions of paleoclimate based on pollen data show that in most cases the periods of a sharp decrease in mean January and mean July temperatures coincided with episodes of low solar activity. The assumption was made about the determining influence of solar activity on the formation of permafrost in the soils and mires of the study area. Sun minima caused permafrost formation in the mire periodically since 8400 cal. a BP in study peatland, but complete freezing of the peat mire and formation of the palsa bog occurred at c. 2800 cal. a BP.

A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability

How often have past climates undergone abrupt transitions? While our understanding of millennial variability during the past 130,000 years is well established, with precise dates available, such information on previous climate cycles is limited. To address this question, we identified 196 abrupt transitions in the δ18O record of the well-dated Chinese composite speleothem for the last 640,000 years. These results correspond to abrupt changes in the strength of the East Asian Monsoon, which align with the Greenland stadials and interstadials observed in the North Atlantic region during the last 130,000 years before present. These precise dates of past abrupt climate changes constitute a reliable and necessary benchmark for Earth System models used to study future climate scenarios.

Climate and sea-level fluctuations on the western coast of Bohai Bay during the 4.2 ka event: Multi-proxy evidence from the Nandagang area of Cangzhou, China

The 4.2 ka event was an important climatic event during the mid–late Holocene, with significant effects on the ecological environment and climatic evolution of different regions. Coastal wetlands, as a transitional ecosystem between land and sea, are sensitive to changes in climate and sea level; hence, research on coastal wetlands is important for reconstructing past climate and sea-level changes and for predicting future changes. However, little research has been conducted on the characteristics of the 4.2 ka event on the western coast of Bohai Bay in China. We analyzed the pollen assemblages (214 samples), grain size, and geochemical element contents of a mid–late Holocene sedimentary sequence from the Nandagang (NDG) wetland on Bohai Bay, with the chronology based on 13 AMS 14C dates. The results revealed the history of climate and sea-level changes on the western coast of Bohai Bay during the interval of 5000–3600 cal yr BP. High sedimentary arboreal pollen concentrations indicated that the NDG area had a relatively dense cover and humid climate during 5000–4450 cal yr BP. During the 380-year interval of 4450–4070 cal yr BP, corresponding to the 4.2 ka event, the decreased representation of arboreal pollen indicated a decrease in the regional forest cover and an arid climate. The internal structure of the 4.2 ka event recorded in core NDG showed a dry-wet-dry temporal structure during the intervals of 4450–4290 cal yr BP, 4290–4170 cal yr BP, and 4170–4070 cal yr BP, respectively, together with a relatively low sea level. Comparison of the relative sea level (RSL) record of the NDG wetland with similar records from other coastal regions in East Asia during the 4.2 ka event revealed contrasting trends. During 4070–3600 cal yr BP, the tree pollen concentration increased again, indicating that the forest vegetation coverage increased and the climate became wetter. Overall, our results suggest that the 4.2 ka event, as recorded in Bohai Bay, was related to the reduced influence of the western Pacific Ocean Warm Pool and the more frequent occurrence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Recent summer warming over the western Mediterranean region is unprecedented since medieval times

Contextualising anthropogenic warming and investigating linkages between past climate variability and human history require high-resolution temperature reconstructions that extend before the period of instrumental measurements. Here, we present maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of 534 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees from undisturbed upper treeline ecotones in the Spanish central Pyrenees. Spanning the period 1119–2020 CE continuously, our new MXD composite chronology correlates significantly with gridded May–September mean temperatures over the western Mediterranean region (r = 0.76; p ≤ 0.001; 1950–2020 CE). Based on an integrative ensemble approach, our reconstruction reveals unprecedented summer warming since 2003 CE. The coldest and warmest reconstructed temperature anomalies are −3.4 (±1.4) °C in 1258 and 2.6 (±2.2) °C in 2017 (relative to 1961–90). Abrupt summer cooling of −1.5 (±1.0) °C was found after 20 large volcanic eruptions since medieval times. Comparison of our summer temperature reconstruction with newly compiled historical evidence from the Iberian Peninsula suggests a lack of military conflict during or following exceptionally hot or cold summers, as well as a general tendency towards less warfare and more stable wheat prices during warmer periods. Our study demonstrates the importance of updating and refining annually resolved and absolutely dated climate reconstructions to place recent trends and extremes of anthropogenic warming in a long-term context of natural temperature variability, and to better understand how past climate and environmental changes affected ecological and societal systems.

A multiproxy approach to reconstruct the Late Holocene environmental dynamics of the semiarid Andes of central Chile (29°S)

Mountain ecosystems located in the Andes cordillera of central Chile (29–35°S) have been strongly affected by the ongoing Mega Drought since 2010, impacting the snow cover, the surficial water resources (and thereby water storage), as well as the mountain biota and ecosystem services. Paleoenvironmental records in this part of the semiarid Andes are key to estimating the effects of past climate changes on local communities helping to forecast the ecological and biological responses under the aridification trend projected during the 21st century. Here we present a 2400-year multiproxy paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on pollen, diatoms, chironomids, sedimentological and geochemical data (XRF and ICP-MS data) of Laguna El Calvario (29°S; 3994 m a.s.l), a small and shallow Andean lake. Four main hydrological phases were established based on changes in the lithogenic and geochemical results associated with allochthonous runoff input and the subsequent response of the biological proxies. Between 2400 and 1400 cal yrs BP, wetter than present conditions occurred based on the intense weathering of the lake basin and the dominance of upper Andean vegetation. A decrease in moisture along with sub-centennial discrete wet pulses and lake-level changes occurred until ~800 cal yrs BP followed long-term stable climate conditions between 1850 and 1950 AD as suggested by a drop in vegetation productivity and low lake levels. From 1950 AD to the present, a decline in moisture with a severe trend to drier conditions occurring in the last decades occurred as reflected by an upward vegetation belt displacement around Laguna El Calvario along with a turnover of diatom assemblages and high productivity in the water column.

Past and future land use/land cover, and climate change impacts on environmental sustainability in Vea catchment, Ghana

LULC and climate change are the two most common manifestations of global environmental change. The objective of this study was to quantify past and future LULC and climate change impacts on environmental sustainability in the Vea catchment of Ghana. The past LULC change (1998–2022) was analyzed using ERDAS Imagine 15 upon the application of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier algorithm. The CA-Markov was used to predict land-use changes in 2038 and 2054. Climate change was projected under SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5 emission scenarios using the R software. The projections from an ensemble mean of SSPs in the near future (2023–2052) and far future (2071–2100) were compared to the reference period (1993–2022). The results show that, between 1998 and 2022, cropland increased from 10.9% to 51.98%, while grassland and forest areas decreased from 54.8–18.14% and 31.7–22.73%, respectively. The results of the predicted LULC change showed an increase in cropland from 181 km2 in 2038 to 183 km2 in 2054 at the expense of grassland and forest, which are expected to decrease from 51–50 km2 and 73–71 km2, respectively. The findings of climate change show the projected increases in average temperature range from 2.10 to 3.5 °C under SSP4.5 and from 2.7 to 4.15 °C under SSP8.5. Under the SSP4.5, annual average precipitation is anticipated to decrease by 12.34–13.1%, while the SSP8.5 projects a decrease of 12.6–13.6%. Results will help in the setting up of long-term environmental management strategies in the catchment as well as the development of appropriate adaptation methods to mitigate the ongoing impacts of LULC and climate change on environmental sustainability.

Three-century climate variations recovered from Lake Heilongtan in southwest China and potential Anthropogenic evidences

Under increasing influences of human activities on earth surface system, the concept of Anthropocene has been proposed and widely investigated to represent such a human-dominated geological epoch. To acquire further details about the Anthropocene, investigations on high-resolution continuous records are essentially necessary, especially for regions under notable human impacts. Here, a continuous sediment record covering the past three centuries was collected from Lake Heilongtan, a closed basin lake located in the Hengduan Mountains, in southwest China. High-resolution sedimentary proxies were examined to reconstruct past climate and environment changes, including grain size distribution, geochemical element composition, and organic matter content. The results indicated that water levels were relatively higher under generally warm and wet conditions between 1717 and 1800 CE, while a decline in regional moisture after 1800 CE caused serious shrinkage of the lake level. Comparisons with regional paleoclimate records revealed that solar activity played a significant role in promoting climate variations in southwest China. After 1910 CE, the sedimentary proxies revealed an out-of-phase with regional climate changes, especially the progressive increase after 1950 CE. With the expansion of regional population, the intensified human activities have possibly affected the catchment erosion and sedimentation processes, accounting for the deviation from natural climate changes. Accordingly, the reconstructed sedimentation history in Lake Heilongtan experienced a possible transition from natural-driven to human-dominant status during the past three centuries, revealing potential evidence for the Anthropocene in southwest China.

Climate change altered the dynamics of stand dominant height in forests during the past century – Analysis of 20 European tree species

Analyzing how climate change has affected forest growth is crucial for predicting future dynamics and adapting forest management to future climate change. In this paper, we investigate how climate change has modified stand dominant height dynamics and site index of 20 European tree species. We used an innovative method based on an annual height increment equation to model stand dominant height as a function of climate back to 1872 and of other stand environmental conditions. We used these models to simulate stand dominant height dynamics and site index under two different climates (prior to climate change and actual recent climate) to analyze the impact of climate change over the past century. To build our models, we combined the recently published FYRE long-term climate database, which provides daily data since 1871, with data from more than 17,000 forest stands of the French National Forest Inventory network. Higher temperature, precipitation and climatic water balance generally favor stand dominant height dynamics when the variables are considered separately. However, the positive effects often saturate at the higher end of the variable distribution. Over the past century, the effect of climate change on the site index has varied widely among species, ranging from a decrease of less than 3% to an increase of more than 5%. The effect of climate change has also varied within species, with more positive effects on initially temperature-limited stands for some species. For the species and environmental conditions considered, our results highlight a positive response of site index to past climate change for most species, albeit with between- and within-species differences. Our results also suggest that this positive response could become negative under continued climate change. These conclusions, as well as the quantitative relationships we provide between climate and stand dominant height dynamics or site index, will help design management strategies to adapt forests to climate change.

Global patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm genera

Endemism of lineages lies at the core of understanding variation in community composition among geographic regions because it reflects how speciation, extinction, and dispersal have influenced current distributions. Here, we investigated geographic patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism of angiosperm genera across the world. We identify centers of paleo-endemism and neo-endemism of angiosperm genera, and show that they are mostly located in the Southern Hemisphere in tropical and subtropical regions, particularly in Asia and Australia. Different categories of phylogenetic endemism centers can be differentiated using current climate conditions. Current climate, historical climate change, and geographic variables together explained ∼80% of global variation in taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism, while 42−46%, 1%, and 15% were independently explained by these three types of variables, respectively. Thus our findings show that past climate change, current climate, and geography act together in shaping endemism, which are consistent with the findings of previous studies that higher temperature and topographic heterogeneity promote endemism. Our study showed that many centers of phylogenetic endemism of angiosperms, including regions in Amazonia, Venezuela, and west-central tropical Africa that have not previously been identified as biodiversity hotspots, are missed by taxon-based measures of endemism, indicating the importance of including evolutionary history in biodiversity assessment.

Redox geochemical signatures in Mediterranean sapropels: Implications to constrain deoxygenation dynamics in deep-marine settings

Global warming and anthropogenic activity are boosting marine deoxygenation in many regions around the globe. Deoxygenation is a critical ocean stressor with profound implications for marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. Understanding the dynamics and evolution of past deoxygenation events can enhance our knowledge of present-day and future impacts of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on marine environments. Many studies have reconstructed the evolution redox conditions of past deoxygenation events using geochemical proxies. In this regard, the present work focuses on understanding the paleoenvironmental significance of geochemical redox signals derived from the onset, evolution and termination of regional-scale deoxygenations in deep-marine settings, with a specific focus on sapropels in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM). Sapropels, rhythmic organic-rich sediments deposited in EM, offer a unique opportunity to investigate recent deoxygenation events linked to past climate changes. Sapropels serve as paleo-archives of past deoxygenation events and can provide insights into the potential impacts of ongoing climate change on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. By integrating previous sapropel geochemical studies with a detailed analysis of new geochemical data from five Quaternary sapropels (S1, S5, S6, S7 and S8) in three different EM deep-marine settings, this study enhances our understanding of the paleoenvironmental significance of geochemical redox signals produced by deoxygenation dynamics and postdepositional processes in different deep-marine settings. The study supports that certain trace elements, such as Mo, V, U, Co, and Ni, are identified as more reliable redox proxies compared to Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Four recurrent geochemical intervals attributed to specific redox conditions and postdepositional processes have been identified. Moreover, internal calibration of redox proxies thresholds has been performed and demonstrates how local environmental conditions (e.g., productivity rate) and hydrogeographic features (e.g., water-depth, particulate-shuttling intensity, deep-water renewal and fluvial input) play crucial roles in controlling the authigenic uptake rates of redox-sensitive trace metals, and subsequently, redox thresholds values of geochemical redox proxies. The results also emphasize the importance of postdepositional processes to accurately interpret geochemical signals in paleoenvironmental studies. This research enhances our overall understanding of geochemical signals associated with regional-scale deoxygenation events in deep-marine settings, offering new insights into predicting biogeochemical changes in marine environments undergoing a transition towards anoxia. By comprehending the dynamics of past and present deoxygenation, we acquire valuable knowledge regarding the potential effects of climate variability in marine ecosystems.

Holocene provenance variations and palaeofloods response to ENSO-driven monsoon precipitation in the subalpine peatland in southern China

There have been few investigation of the provenance of sediments and hydrological response to past climatic change in the subalpine peatland in southern China. The source of sediments and regional climatic variations during the Holocene have been deduced from Rare Earth Elements (REEs), SrNd isotopic data and grain size end-member modeling analysis (EMMA) derived from peat sediments from the southwestern mountainous region of Hunan Province, China. From the distinctive SrNd isotopes patterns, LREEs enrichment, and the Eu anomaly observed in these sediments, it can be concluded that local weathering residues have been the primary sedimentary source throughout the Holocene. Based on the method of EMMA, four distinct end members were identified. EM2, signifying weathering products of moderate particle size, is sensitive to climate variations. This sensitivity makes it an effective marker to track the historical evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity. The results suggest that the prevalence of the relatively weak EASM during the interval 11,600–9000 cal yr BP, followed by an overall weakening trend during the past 9000 years. EM3 + EM4, the coarsest component in the peat sediments, indicate strong runoff typically caused by the extreme weather events. Notably, the occurrence of relatively high EM3 + EM4 component during the interval 5400–4500 cal yr BP and 3500–2600 cal yr BP is consistent with the previous reported palaeoflood events in the Yangtze River basin. We suggest that the regional flood patterns are predominantly controlled by the East Asian monsoon system, which in turn, is driven by ENSO activities. For a comprehensive understanding of regional flood patterns, it is imperative to extend research into high-altitude areas.

Cryptotephra preserved in Lake Suigetsu (SG14 core) reveals the eruption timing and distribution of ash fall from Japanese volcanoes during the Late-glacial to early Holocene

Long sedimentary successions extracted for palaeoclimate research regularly preserve volcanic ash (tephra) fall from explosive eruptions and are increasingly used to elucidate the timing and scale of past events. This study investigates the non-visible tephra (cryptotephra) layers preserved in the annually laminated and intensively 14C dated sediments of Lake Suigetsu (SG14 core), Japan. The cryptotephra investigations reported here focus on the Late-glacial to early Holocene sediments that were deposited between two visible tephra layers, the Ulleungdo (U)-Oki (10.2 ka) and the Sambe ‘Sakate’ (19.6 ka), and consequently span an interval of abrupt climate change making any newly identified cryptotephra layers invaluable chrono-stratigraphic markers. Using major and trace element volcanic glass compositions the cryptotephra are used to assign provenance to chrono-stratigraphically relevant eruption units. Five new cryptotephra layers are identified within this time interval. Three cryptotephra layers are from Kyushu volcanoes (SG14-1337 and SG14-1554 [Sakurajima]; and SG14-1806 [Kirishima]), all of which offer important chronological constraints on archaeological (Jomon) cultural transitions in southern Japan during the last termination. Another cryptotephra (SG14-1579), is assigned to activity on Niijima Island providing the first known distal occurrence and age of the eruption. Finally, the SG14-1798 cryptotephra precisely dated at 16,619 ± 74 IntCal20 yrs BP (2σ) is linked to Asama (As) volcano and more precisely the later phases of the As-YKU eruption. This discovery greatly expands the distribution of ash fall from this multi-phased eruption at Asama volcano, which affected an area in the region of 120,000 km2. Refining the timing of the eruption and the distribution of As-YKU ash fall is important as it offers an excellent chrono- and climato-stratigraphic marker suitable for assessing spatial variability in environmental response to past climate change during the termination of the last glacial.

Past climate cooling and orogenesis of the Hengduan Mountains have influenced the evolution of Impatiens sect. Impatiens (Balsaminaceae) in the Northern Hemisphere

BackgroundImpatiens sect. Impatiens is distributed across the Northern Hemisphere and has diversified considerably, particularly within the Hengduan Mountains (HDM) in southwest China. Yet, the infra-sectional phylogenetic relationships are not well resolved, largely due to limited taxon sampling and an insufficient number of molecular markers. The evolutionary history of its diversification is also poorly understood. In this study, plastome data and the most complete sampling to date were used to reconstruct a robust phylogenetic framework for this section. The phylogeny was then used to investigate its biogeographical history and diversification patterns, specifically with the aim of understanding the role played by the HDM and past climatic changes in its diversification.ResultsA stable phylogeny was reconstructed that strongly supported both the monophyly of the section and its division into seven major clades (Clades I-VII). Molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction suggest that sect. Impatiens originated in the HDM and Southeast China around 11.76 Ma, after which different lineages dispersed to Northwest China, temperate Eurasia, and North America, mainly during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. An intercontinental dispersal event from East Asia to western North America may have occurred via the Bering Land Bridge or Aleutian Islands. The diversification rate was high during its early history, especially with the HDM, but gradually decreased over time both within and outside the HDM. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the distribution pattern of species richness was strongly associated with elevation range, elevation, and mean annual temperature. Finally, ancestral niche analysis indicated that sect. Impatiens originated in a relatively cool, middle-elevation area.ConclusionsWe inferred the evolutionary history of sect. Impatiens based on a solid phylogenetic framework. The HDM was the primary source or pump of its diversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Orogeny and climate change may have also shaped its diversification rates, as a steady decrease in the diversification rate coincided with the uplift of the HDM and climate cooling. These findings provide insights into the distribution pattern of sect. Impatiens and other plants in the Northern Hemisphere.

Competing influence of the Taiwan orogen and East Asian Summer Monsoon on South China Sea paleoenvironmental proxy records

Late Cenozoic changes in the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) are reconstructed using both terrestrial and marine proxy records; however, proxies from terrestrial (e.g., loess, pollen, and pedogenic isotopes) and marine environments (e.g., foraminifer assemblages and geochemistry) commonly display large discrepancies both in the direction and timing of changes in the EASM. In part, these discrepancies reflect long-term changes in paleogeography that are independent of climate variations. We assess the influence of a rapidly uplifting orogen on EASM records by comparing temporally constrained gamma-ray, δ13Corg, hematite/goethite, and magnetic susceptibility records from Late Miocene–Early Pleistocene strata of the Taiwan Western Foreland Basin to time-equivalent EASM proxy records in the South China Sea (SCS).Prior to the emergence of modern Taiwan (∼6.3–5.4 Ma), sediment in the SCS was largely derived from Eurasia and transported into the Pacific Ocean. Following its emergence and southwest migration of the collision zone ∼5.4 Ma, proto-Taiwan became a major sediment source to the SCS. The uplift and southwest migration of Taiwan and northwest migration of the Luzon volcanic arc resulted in the formation of southwest-flowing deep- (1500–2500 m water depth) and bottom-water (>2500 m water depth) currents and the SCS Branch of the Kuroshio Current. Together these currents transported sediment from Taiwan towards the SCS. Increased sediment input from Taiwan is recorded as a decline in hematite/goethite values in sediment records from the northern and central SCS. By ∼3.2 Ma, continued southwest migration and growth of the Taiwan orogen resulted in the formation of the Taiwan Warm Current, which remobilized some sediment from Taiwan towards the East China Sea. Despite strengthening of deep-water currents during the Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene, relative sediment input from Taiwan to the wider SCS decreased. Consequently, relative contributions from Eurasia and Luzon increased. In the southern SCS, where the Mekong River has dominated sedimentation since the Late Miocene, proxy records show no influence from the Taiwan orogen and instead reflect environmental changes in Mainland Southeast Asia driven mainly by monsoon variability.Our results show that a rapidly uplifting orogen has the potential to significantly impact paleoclimate records >1000 km away from the collision zone. This highlights the influence of shifting sediment sources on paleoclimate proxy records, which must be considered in interpreting past climate change from the sedimentary record.

Sea level controls on the provenance of fine-grained sediments in the Xisha Trough, northwestern South China Sea over the last ~30 ka

The Xisha Trough situated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), plays a pivotal role in transporting sediments from the Red River into the deep-sea basin of the SCS, and thus is a critical place to examine variations in source-to-sink process of the Red River-derived sediments associated with past climate and oceanography changes. In this study, we analyzed clay minerals, grain size composition, and specific XRF core scanning elements of sediment core XT-1, retrieved from the northern slope of the Xisha Trough, to assess changes in sediment provenance and their primary influencing factors in the studied area over the last ~30 ka. The results show that clay minerals are primarily composed of illite+chrolite with a mean of 89%, followed by kaolinite with a mean of 9%; smectite occurs as a minor component. The mean grain size and XRF core scanning elements exhibit a three-phase change that corresponds well to variations in sediment source since the last glacial period. Over the last 29.8 ka, sea level fluctuations are the primary factor controlling changes in provenances and their contributions in the northern slope of the Xisha Trough. During the last glacial from 29.8 to 20.2 ka with lower sea levels, both the Red River and Taiwan were the primary contributors of fine-grained sediments in the lower continental slope of the Xisha Trough. However, with marine transgressions from the last deglaciation, Taiwan gradually became the dominant source of fine-grained sediments, followed by the Red River. Additionally, during the Last Glacial Maximum and the early to middle Holocene periods, the strengthened deep-water current (DWC) and East Asian summer monsoon, respectively, exerted strong impacts on the contribution of Taiwanese sediments to the Xisha Trough. The changing pattern of primary provenance in the studied core is roughly in line with those observed in the northern SCS, while differing from those in the southern regions of the western Xisha Trough. This discrepancy is likely caused by varying influences of the DWC on these regions.

Projected high-resolution ETo spatiotemporal variation under future climate change and paddy area expansion in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

Study regionThis research studies Sanjiang Plain because of its past drastic climate change and paddy area expansion, and future paddy area continue to expand supported by water conservancy project. Study focusThis research focuses on projecting high-resolution reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) spatiotemporal variation under future climate and underlying surface change, and quantified its coupled effects. New hydrological insights for the regionThe integrated framework of Patch-generating Land Use Simulation, Weather Research and Forecasting, and bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset is proposed to consider the integration of future paddy area expansion and climate change impacts on ETo. Results showed that future paddy area will continue to increase, but it is much lower than past expansion scale. The average temperature, average relative humidity, and total ETo show an increasing trend. The spatial distribution is characterized by temperature and ETo reaches its highest value in central region, and decreases along the surrounding area, but relative humidity is diametrically opposed. The central regions have significant change in temperature, relative humidity, and ETo, deserving further attention. The coupled effect of paddy expansion and climate change is reflected in increasing average temperature (0.95–1.94 °C) and total ETo (19–39.96 mm), but decreasing average wind speed (0.09–0.12 m/s).

Population genomics of the muskox' resilience in the near absence of genetic variation.

Genomic studies of species threatened by extinction are providing crucial information about evolutionary mechanisms and genetic consequences of population declines and bottlenecks. However, to understand how species avoid the extinction vortex, insights can be drawn by studying species that thrive despite past declines. Here, we studied the population genomics of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus), an Ice Age relict that was at the brink of extinction for thousands of years at the end of the Pleistocene yet appears to be thriving today. We analysed 108 whole genomes, including present-day individuals representing the current native range of both muskox subspecies, the white-faced and the barren-ground muskox (O. moschatus wardi and O. moschatus moschatus) and a ~21,000-year-old ancient individual from Siberia. We found that the muskox' demographic history was profoundly shaped by past climate changes and post-glacial re-colonizations. In particular, the white-faced muskox has the lowest genome-wide heterozygosity recorded in an ungulate. Yet, there is no evidence of inbreeding depression in native muskox populations. We hypothesize that this can be explained by the effect of long-term gradual population declines that allowed for purging of strongly deleterious mutations. This study provides insights into how species with a history of population bottlenecks, small population sizes and low genetic diversity survive against all odds.

The evolution of deep convective systems and their associated cirrus outflows

Abstract. Tropical deep convective clouds, particularly their large cirrus outflows, play an important role in modulating the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere. Whilst the cores of these deep convective clouds have a significant short-wave (SW) cooling effect, they dissipate quickly. Conversely, the thin cirrus that flow from these cores can persist for days after the core has dissipated, reaching hundreds of kilometres in extent. These thin cirrus have a potential for large warming in the tropics. Understanding the evolution of air parcels from deep convection, clouds along these trajectories, and how they change in response to anthropogenic emissions is therefore important to understand past and future climate change. This work uses a novel approach to investigate the evolution of tropical convective clouds by introducing the concept of “time since convection” (TSC). This is used to build a composite picture of the lifecycle of air parcels from deep convection. Cloud properties are a strong function of TSC, showing decreases in the optical thickness, cloud-top height, and cloud fraction over time, thereby driving the latitudinal structure of cloudiness. After an initial dissipation of the convective core, changes in thin cirrus cloud amount were seen beyond 200 h from convection. Changes in cloud are shown to be a strong function of TSC and not simply reflective of latitudinal changes as air moves from the tropics to the extratropics. Finally, in the initial stages of convection there was a large net negative cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, once the convective core had dissipated, the sign of the CRE flipped and there was a sustained net warming CRE beyond 120 h from the convective event. Changes are present in the cloud properties long after the main convective activities have dissipated, signalling the need to continue further analysis at longer timescales than previously studied.

Robust Human Influence across the Troposphere, Surface, and Ocean: A Multivariate Analysis

Abstract Human influence has been robustly detected throughout many parts of the climate system. Pattern-based methods have been used extensively to estimate the strength of model-predicted “fingerprints,” both human and natural, in observational data. However, individual studies using different analysis methods and time periods yield inconsistent estimates of the magnitude of the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, depending on whether they examined the troposphere, surface, or ocean. Reducing the uncertainty of the impact of aerosols on the climate system is crucial for understanding past climate change and obtaining more reliable estimates of climate sensitivity. To reconcile divergent estimates of aerosol effects obtained in previous studies, we apply the same regression-based detection and attribution method to three different variables: mid-to-upper-tropospheric temperature, surface temperature, and ocean heat content. We find that quantitative estimates of human influence in observations are consistent across these three independently monitored components of the climate system. Combining the troposphere, surface, and ocean data into a single multivariate fingerprint results in a small (∼10%) reduction of uncertainty of the magnitude of the greenhouse gas fingerprint, but a large (∼40%) reduction for the anthropogenic aerosol fingerprint. This reduction in uncertainty results in a substantially earlier time of detection of the multivariate aerosol fingerprint when compared to aerosol fingerprint detection time in each of the three individual variables. Our results highlight the benefits of analyzing data across the troposphere, surface, and ocean in detection and attribution studies, and motivate future work to further constrain uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate. Significance Statement Fingerprints of human influence have been detected separately across the troposphere, surface, and ocean. Previous studies examining the different parts of the climate system are difficult to compare quantitatively, however, because they use different methods and cover differ timespans. Here we find consistent estimates of the human influence on the troposphere, surface, and ocean over recent decades when the same fingerprint method and analysis period is used. When we combine the three variables into a single fingerprint, the uncertainty of the influence of anthropogenic aerosols is substantially reduced and the signal is detectable considerably earlier in the observational record. Our results highlight the benefits of performing analysis across different variables instead of focusing on one variable only.