Evaluation of the Past Climate Changes Effects on Potato Growth and Yield by Modeling

Abstract

Global warming and climate changes and their effects on the phenology stages and production of crops have attracted attention of researchers. We investigated the impacts of climate changes, phenology stages, yield potential as well as the effects of climate changes on the growth and development of potatoes as a stable food crop. In this study, SSM-iCrop2 simulation model methodology was used to investigate the climate change process, phenology stages, yield potential and the effects of climate changes on the growth and development of potato in 19 main meteorological stations from 1991 to 2015. The selection of meteorology stations was done based on the area under potato cultivation to implement the GYGA protocol. SAS program was used to explore the trends and slopes of the evaluable parameters, and GIS maps were used to analyze and interpret the trends and slopes. The results on potato phenological stages showed that with increasing the average of temperature, the length of planting period until the beginning of tuber formation in two meteorological stations, the period of tuber formation in four meteorological stations and the whole growing period in six meteorological stations were significantly decreased. The results also showed that the changes during the phenological stages, temperature, and radiation received during the growth caused a significant increase on yield at Shahrekord meteorological station and a significant decrease in other 6 meteorological stations. Based on the results, climatic factors had a significant effects on total yields.