Past Climate Data Research Articles

GIS를 활용한 KMA-RCM의 규모 상세화 기법 개발 및 검증

The aim of this study is to develop future climate scenario by downscaling the regional climate model (RCM) from global climate model (GCM) based on IPCC A1B scenario. To this end, the study first resampled the KMA-RCM(Korea meteorological administration-regional climate model) from spatial resolution of 27km to 1km. Second, observed climatic data of temperature and rainfall through 1971-2000 were processed to reflect the temperature lapse rate with respect to the altitude of each meteorological observation station. To optimize the downscaled results, Co-kriging was used to calculate temperature lapse-rate; and IDW was used to calculate rainfall lapse rate. Fourth, to verify results of the study we performed correlation analysis between future climate change projection data and observation data through the years 2001-2010. In this study the past climate data (1971-2000), future climate change scenarios(A1B), KMA-RCM(Korea meteorological administration-regional climate model) results and the 1km DEM were used. The research area is entire South Korea and the study period is from 1971 to 2100. Monthly mean temperatures and rainfall with spatial resolution of 1km * 1km were produced as a result of research. Annual average temperature and precipitation had increased by 1.39°C and 271.23mm during 1971 to 2100. The development of downscaling method using GIS and verification with observed data could reduce the uncertainty of future climate change projection.

A geographical analysis of the Atalanti alluvial plain and coastline as the location of a potential tourist site, Bronze through Early Iron Age Mitrou, East-Central Greece

Tourism accounts for 15% of Greece’s gross domestic product. In the wake of a struggling economy many of Greece’s coastal villages have turned to tourism to supplement local economies. Preliminary analysis of structural and cultural materials recovered from an excavation on Mitrou, a small islet near the coastal village Tragana located 140 km north of Athens has established the site’s contribution to a fuller understanding of settlement practices in Central Greece from the end of the Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. The site’s historic importance combined with its scenic coastal setting has considerable potential to be developed into an important tourist site. The physical geography of the region is the product of the complex interaction of coastal, alluvial, fluvial, and seismic processes. This investigation integrates the archaeological material with a geographical analysis employing a variety of geographical techniques (soil and sediment analysis, past climatic data, environmental surveys, and geospatial modeling) to reconstruct the geomorphological history of the site and to evaluate the area as a potential tourist site.

Data rescue initiatives: bringing historical climate data into the 21st century

The currently limited availability of long and high-quality surface instrumental climate records continues to hamper our ability to carry out more robust assessments of the climate. Such assessments are needed to better understand, detect, predict and respond to global climate variabil- ity and change. Despite the wealthy heritage of past climate data and recent efforts to improve data availability and accessibility, much more surface data could be digitised. Additionally, some long records are not of the quality needed for more confidently supporting any climate assessment, ser- vice, or application. The present paper discusses the usefulness of undertaking integrated data res- cue (DARE) activities by showing several climate assessments as examples. It describes emerging DARE activities worldwide, with a focus on the World Meteorological Organization Mediterranean Data Rescue (MEDARE) and the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiatives to assess the benefits historical instrumental climate data can bring to studies of climate variability and change that consider the 21st century.

Identifying extreme event climate thresholds for greater Manchester, UK: examining the past to prepare for the future

AbstractExtreme weather events can have severe consequences for the local environment and population. Projected future changes in climate (e.g. UKCP09) indicate that North West England is likely to experience an increasing frequency and intensity of meteorological extremes, leading to flooding, heat waves and storms. Consequently, it is important that the region enhances its preparedness for such events. This paper explores the possibility of developing quantifiable climate risk indices for the case study area of Greater Manchester, using a combination of archival research and statistical analysis of past climate data. For extremes which are the function of a single meteorological variable (e.g. heat waves, pluvial flooding and heavy snowfall) the thresholds proved to be reliable and skillful. Days with maximum daily temperature greater than or equal to 29.2 °C, daily snowfall amount greater than or equal to 6 cm or maximum gust speed greater than or equal to 60 knots are found to be indicative of weather‐related impacts which have in the past affected human health/well‐being, have caused damage to the urban infrastructure or have severely disrupted services. Extreme events which are the result of a more complex interaction between variables (e.g. drought, freezing conditions) were less well captured by applying the thresholds associated with a single variable in isolation. Such critical threshold indices can be used in conjunction with future projections of climate change to establish weather‐related risk for the future. This risk‐based approach can subsequently be integrated to climate change adaptation strategies and development planning to ensure future preparedness. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Vulnerability to epidemic malaria in the highlands of Lake Victoria basin: the role of climate change/variability, hydrology and socio-economic factors

Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria.

A weather-resolving index for assessing the impact of climate change on tourism related climate resources

This study develops and tests a Modified Climate Index for Tourism (MCIT) utilizing more than 50 years of hourly temperature, wind and significant weather data from contrasting climatic regions, Florida and Alaska. The index measures climate as a tourism resource by combining several tourism-related climate elements. It improves previous methods by incorporating variables that are more relevant to tourism activities, by addressing the overriding nature of some conditions, and by incorporating hourly observations rather than simple daily averages. The MCIT was tested using hourly weather observations from King Salmon, Alaska and Orlando, Florida. The results show that average temperature alone is not sufficient to represent tourism climate resources. For example, at both the Florida and Alaskan sites, showers and thunderstorms are more limiting factors than temperature during much of the year. When applied to past climate data, the proposed MCIT generates meaningful results that capture tourism-related climate variations and trends, including (a) the increasingly favorable tourism conditions in Alaska due to a lengthening of the warm season and (b) a decrease of ideal climatic conditions in central Florida due to the increased summer temperatures. Thus, the index has the potential to become a useful quantitative tool to be used in conjunction with climate models to predict the nature and magnitude of the impact of anticipated climate changes on tourism.

Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan – An econometric analysis

We assess potential future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Swat and Chitral districts of Pakistan, mountainous areas with average altitudes of 960 and 1500 m above sea level, respectively. Using past climate data (1976–2000) to track temperature trends in both study districts, we find that increased temperatures correspond to an increase in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and a decrease in Growing Season Length (GSL). Chitral district shows a stronger decline in season length than Swat district. Compared with the estimated optimum level of 157 days, the 25 year average GSL for the dominant varieties is estimated to be 156 days in Swat district and 195 days in Chitral district. Future increases in temperature of 1.5 and 3 °C are likely to cause wheat yields to decline (by 7% and 24% respectively) in Swat district and increase (by 14% and 23% respectively) in Chitral district. Future increases in precipitation of 5–15% during the growing season show a negligible impact on wheat yield. Development and dissemination of short duration varieties, which can withstand the climatic anomalies expected in the future, should be given priority in the mountain region. More recent High Yielding Varieties (HYV) of the warmer plain areas should also be tested and introduced in the mountain areas because the expected future increases in temperatures caused by global warming would render these varieties suitable for the mountain areas.

A Simple Process-based Xylem Growth Model for Describing Wood Microdensitometric Profiles

A mechanistic model of xylem production based on physiological and anatomical assumptions is proposed. It focuses on tracheids and on the main phases of cell development: cell division, enlargement and wall thickening. For each phase, the most limiting environmental factors are assessed and their effect is modeled with a weekly time step. Combined with simple process-based stand growth and yield models, which take the mean monthly climatic data into account, the xylem production model provides simulations of infra-annual density profiles along stem radius.Simulations are performed for two sites in northeastern France, using past climatic data. The outputs are qualitatively discussed and visually compared with the observed microdensitometric profiles ofPinus sylvestrisandPicea abiesin these two sites. These models provide a basis for integrating timber quality features into process-based models. They also point to new sources of data that could be used to validate process-based models, and suggest some biological assumptions to understand the infra-annual variability of wood basic density.

Changes in Cropping Systems at the Boundaries of the Pastoral and Cropping Zones in Southern Australia.

A history of cropping at the margins between arable and pastoral lands is examined. Assessment is made of the climatic factors that caused the abandonment of cropping. These criteria are then used to assess the likelihood that future cropping will persist along the present pastoral margins in different states of Australia. A minimum requirement is that the ratio of water use to evaporation in the growing season should exceed 0.3. An analysis of past climatic data should also be made to identify sequences of years when rainfall was both above and below average. Periods of above-average rainfall can lead to undue optimism for future cropping. Simple climatic models are required so that farmers can use them to predict the rainfall in the growing season and thereby make appropriate management decisions. Farming is a complex technical and financial business and farmers will need skills in monitoring, measuring and recording factors that influence their livelihood.