Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan – An econometric analysis

Abstract

We assess potential future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Swat and Chitral districts of Pakistan, mountainous areas with average altitudes of 960 and 1500 m above sea level, respectively. Using past climate data (1976–2000) to track temperature trends in both study districts, we find that increased temperatures correspond to an increase in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and a decrease in Growing Season Length (GSL). Chitral district shows a stronger decline in season length than Swat district. Compared with the estimated optimum level of 157 days, the 25 year average GSL for the dominant varieties is estimated to be 156 days in Swat district and 195 days in Chitral district. Future increases in temperature of 1.5 and 3 °C are likely to cause wheat yields to decline (by 7% and 24% respectively) in Swat district and increase (by 14% and 23% respectively) in Chitral district. Future increases in precipitation of 5–15% during the growing season show a negligible impact on wheat yield. Development and dissemination of short duration varieties, which can withstand the climatic anomalies expected in the future, should be given priority in the mountain region. More recent High Yielding Varieties (HYV) of the warmer plain areas should also be tested and introduced in the mountain areas because the expected future increases in temperatures caused by global warming would render these varieties suitable for the mountain areas.