Past Climate Change Research Articles

Climate Change and Adaptation in Pemba Island, Zanzibar: Environmental History – Pre-colonial Period to 1840

Despite vast research on climate change and adaptation in Pemba Island, and Zanzibar at large, little is still known about past climate changes and community adaptation to the ensuing hazards. Existing scholarship on climate change and community adaptation have generally focused on the most recent changes and adaptations. This paper intends to provide a historical understanding of past climate changes and community adaptation to contribute to the current scholarship. It relied on archival data, archaeological and historical reports, observation of existing sucked sites and existing oral traditions to reconstruct climate change adaptation history in the Island. The study found that climate changes have been happening in the Island since time immemorial. The Island experienced fluctuating rainfalls and temperatures that generated long- and short-term changes from wet to dry climatic conditions. The study further found that, for centuries, local communities in the Island suffered the impacts of climate change and innovated varied adaptations to survive. The strategies ranged from prayers to small-scale irrigation. It is argued that although the mechanism driving global climate change today are different from those in the past, the understanding of past adaptations to climate change offers some valuable insights into dealing with current and anticipated future climate changes.

Climate Change and Adaptation in Pemba Island, Zanzibar: Environmental History – Pre-colonial Period to 1840

Despite vast research on climate change and adaptation in Pemba Island, and Zanzibar at large, little is still known about past climate changes and community adaptation to the ensuing hazards. Existing scholarship on climate change and community adaptation have generally focused on the most recent changes and adaptations. This paper intends to provide a historical understanding of past climate changes and community adaptation to contribute to the current scholarship. It relied on archival data, archaeological and historical reports, observation of existing sucked sites and existing oral traditions to reconstruct climate change adaptation history in the Island. The study found that climate changes have been happening in the Island since time immemorial. The Island experienced fluctuating rainfalls and temperatures that generated long- and short-term changes from wet to dry climatic conditions. The study further found that, for centuries, local communities in the Island suffered the impacts of climate change and innovated varied adaptations to survive. The strategies ranged from prayers to small-scale irrigation. It is argued that although the mechanism driving global climate change today are different from those in the past, the understanding of past adaptations to climate change offers some valuable insights into dealing with current and anticipated future climate changes.

Tree line shifts, changing vegetation assemblages and permafrost dynamics on Galdhøpiggen (Jotunheimen, Norway) over the past ~4400 years

An environmental reconstruction based on palynological evidence preserved in peat was carried out to examine late-Holocene alpine tree line dynamics in the context of past climatic changes on Galdhøpiggen (Jotunheimen, southern Norway). We analysed a peat core taken from a mire at the present-day tree line (1000 m a.s.l.), c. 450 m downslope from the lower limit of sporadic permafrost. We adopted a combination of commonly used indicators of species’ local presence to reconstruct past vegetation assemblages, such as the relative pollen abundance (%), pollen accumulation rate (PAR), and presence of indicator species. Additionally, fossil pollen from the peat sequence was compared to modern pollen from a surface moss polster to establish a modern analogue. The results were compared with studies covering the late-Holocene climatic changes in the area. The reconstruction demonstrates that a pine-dominated woodland reached above the present-day tree line at c. 4300 cal. yr BP, suggesting a warmer climate suitable for Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris) growth at this altitude. Scots pine retreated to lower altitudes between c. 3400 and 1700 cal. yr BP, accompanied by the descent of the low-alpine shrub-dominated belt, in response to cooling climatic conditions. The colder period covered c. 1700–170 cal. yr BP, and an open downy birch ( Betula pubescens) woodland became widespread at 1000 m a.s.l., whilst pine remained sparse at this altitude. From c. 170 cal. yr BP onwards, warming allowed pine to re-establish its local presence alongside downy birch at 1000 m a.s.l.

Too hot for the devil? Did climate change cause the mid‐Holocene extinction of the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii from mainland Australia?

The possible role of climate change in late Quaternary animal extinctions is hotly debated, yet few studies have investigated its direct effects on animal physiology to assess whether past climate changes might have had significant impacts on now‐extinct species. Here we test whether climate change could have imposed physiological stress on the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii during the mid‐Holocene, when the species went extinct on mainland Australia. Physiological values for the devil were quantified using mechanistic niche models of energy and water requirements for thermoregulation, and soil‐moisture‐based indices of plant stress from drought to indirectly represent food and water availability. The spatial pervasiveness, extremity and frequency of physiological stresses were compared between a period of known climatic and presumed demographic stability (8000–6010 BP) and the extinction period (5000–3010 BP). We found no evidence of widespread negative effects of climate on physiological parameters for the devil on the mainland during its extinction window. This leaves cultural and demographic changes in the human population or competition from the dingo Canis dingo as the main contending hypotheses to explain mainland loss of the devil in the mid‐Holocene.

Monitoring of Sierra Nevada Caves Reveals the Potential for Stalagmites to Archive Seasonal Variability

In the southwestern United States, California (CA) is one of the most climatically sensitive regions given its low (≤250 mm/year) seasonal precipitation and its inherently variable hydroclimate, subject to large magnitude modulation. To reconstruct past climate change in CA, cave calcite deposits (stalagmites) have been utilized as an archive for environmentally sensitive proxies, such as stable isotope compositions (δ18O, δ13C) and trace element concentrations (e.g., Mg, Ba, Sr). Monitoring the cave and associated surface environments, the chemical evolution of cave drip-water, the calcite precipitated from the drip-water, and the response of these systems to seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature is imperative for interpreting stalagmite proxies. Here we present monitored drip-water and physical parameters at Lilburn Cave, Sequoia Kings Canyon National Park (Southern Sierra Nevada), CA, and measured trace element concentrations (Mg, Sr, Ba, Cu, Fe, Mn) and stable isotopic compositions (δ18O, δ2H) of drip-water and for calcite (δ18O) precipitated on glass substrates over a two-year period (November 2018 to February 2021) to better understand how chemical variability at this site is influenced by local and regional precipitation and temperature variability. Despite large variability in surface temperatures and precipitation amount and source region (North Pacific vs. subtropical Pacific), Lilburn Cave exhibits a constant cave environment year-round. At two of the three sites within the cave, drip-water δ18O and δ2H are influenced seasonally by evaporative enrichment. At a third collection site in the cave, the drip-water δ18O responds solely to precipitation δ18O variability. The Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Sr/Ca ratios are seasonally responsive to prior calcite precipitation at all sites but minimally to water-rock interaction. Lastly, we examine the potential of trace metals (e.g., Mn2+ and Cu2+as a geochemical proxy of recharge and find that variability in their concentrations has high potential to denote the onset of the rainy season in the study region. The drip-water composition is recorded in the calcite, demonstrating that stalagmites from Lilburn Cave, and potentially more regionally, could record seasonal variability in weather even during periods of substantially reduced rainfall.

Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations

Human-induced climate- and land-use change have been affecting biogeographical and biodiversity patterns for the past two centuries all over the globe, resulting in increased extinction and biotic homogenization rates. High mountain ecosystems are more sensitive to these changes, which have led to physiological and phenological shifts, as well as to ecosystem processes’ deformation. Glacial relicts, such as arctic-alpine taxa, are sensitive indicators of the effects of global warming and their rear-edge populations could include warm-adapted genotypes that might prove—conservation-wise—useful in an era of unprecedented climate regimes. Despite the ongoing thermophilization in European and Mediterranean summits, it still remains unknown how past and future climate-change might affect the distributional patterns of the glacial relict, arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece, their European southernmost distributional limit. Using species distribution models, we investigated the impacts of past and future climate changes on the arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece and identified the areas comprising arctic-alpine biodiversity hotspots in Greece. Most of these species will be faced with severe range reductions in the near future, despite their innate resilience to a multitude of threats, while the species richness hotspots will experience both altitudinal and latitudinal shifts. Being long-lived perennials means that there might be an extinction-debt present in these taxa, and a prolonged stability phase could be masking the deleterious effects of climate change on them. Several ex situ conservation measures (e.g., seed collection, population augmentation) should be taken to preserve the southernmost populations of these rare arctic-alpine taxa and a better understanding of their population genetics is urgently needed.

Chromosome-level de novo genome assembly and whole-genome resequencing of the threatened species Acanthochlamys bracteata (Velloziaceae) provide insights into alpine plant divergence in a biodiversity hotspot.

The Hengduan Mountains region is an important hotspot of alpine plant diversity and endemism. Acanthochlamys bracteata is a species of a threatened monotypic genus endemic to the Hengduan Mountains. In this study, we present a high-quality, chromosome-level reference genome for A.bracteata, constructed using long reads, short reads and Hi-C technology. We characterized its genetic diversity, population structure, demographic history and gene flow by resequencing individuals collected across its distribution. Comparative genomics analyses based on sequence information from single-copy orthologous genes revealed that A. bracteata and Dioscorea rotundata diverged ~104.5million years ago. Whole-genome resequencing based on population genetic analysis revealed that the division of the 14 populations into 10 distinct clusters reflected geographical divergence, and three separate high levels of gene flow occurred sequentially between isolated populations of the Hengduan Mountains, a finding which is consistent with the turnover between ice ages and interglacial periods. Our findings indicate that Quaternary climatic changes played an important role in shaping the genetic structure and demographic trajectories of A. bracteata, and provide critical insights into the genetic status and evolutionary history of this poorly understood species, and possibly other alpine plants with a similar distribution. This study demonstrates the usefulness of population genomics for evaluating the effects of past climatic changes and identifying conservation units for the conservation and management of threatened species. Our high-quality genome represents a valuable resource for future studies of the underlying molecular mechanisms of adaptive evolution and provides insight for further comparative genomic analysis with other Velloziaceae species.

Evaluation of Lake Sediment Thickness from Water-Borne Electrical Resistivity Tomography Data.

Lakes are integrators of past climate and ecological change. This information is stored in the sediment record at the lake bottom, and to make it available for paleoclimate research, potential target sites with undisturbed and continuous sediment sequences need to be identified. Different geophysical methods are suitable to identify, explore, and characterize sediment layers prior to sediment core recovery. Due to the high resolution, reflection seismic methods have become standard for this purpose. However, seismic measurements cannot always provide a comprehensive image of lake-bottom sediments, e.g., due to lacking seismic contrasts between geological units or high attenuation of seismic waves. Here, we developed and tested a complementary method based on water-borne electrical-resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements. Our setup consisted of 13 floating electrodes (at 5 m spacing) used to collect ERT data with a dipole–dipole configuration. We used a 1D inversion to adjust a layered-earth model, which facilitates the implementation of constraints on water depth, water resistivity, and sediment resistivity as a priori information. The first two parameters were readily obtained from the echo-sounder and conductivity-probe measurements. The resistivity of sediment samples can also be determined in the laboratory. We applied this approach to process ERT data collected on a lake in southern Mexico. The direct comparison of ERT data with reflection seismic data collected with a sub-bottom profiler (SBP) showed that we can significantly improve the sediment-thickness estimates compared to unconstrained 2D inversions. Down to water depths of 20 m, our sediment thickness estimates were close to the sediment thickness derived from collocated SBP seismograms. Our approach represents an implementation of ERT measurements on lakes and complements the standard lake-bottom exploration by reflection seismic methods.

Temporal variability of microbial communities during the past 600 years in a Tibetan lake sediment core

Over the past decades, the Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing rapid climate change and increasing anthropogenic disturbance. The existing multi-proxy sediment records highlight the complex interplay of physical and ecological changes as a response to past climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Yet, it remains an open question of how sedimentary microbial communities respond to past climate changes and anthropogenic interventions. Using high-throughput Illumina sequencing, this study investigated the temporal changes of prokaryotic and eukaryotic communities in a Tibetan lake sediment core spanning the last 600 years. There were obvious temporal distributions of prokaryotic and eukaryotic indicator taxa, and these temporal patterns were mainly influenced by mean annual temperature (MAT), total phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen:phosphorus ratio (N:P). The alpha diversity of eukaryotic communities significantly increased with time ( P < 0.001), while the alpha diversity of prokaryotic communities did not exhibit obvious temporal turnover. Both prokaryotic and eukaryotic communities exhibited significant temporal-decay relationships. However, the turnover rate of the temporal-decay of eukaryotes (0.119) was significantly higher than that of prokaryotes (0.092). The effect of TP and N:P on the prokaryotic and eukaryotic communities were higher than that of MAT. The insights gained from this study can be helpful to understand the effects of past climate change and anthropogenic activities on the temporal distribution patterns of microbial communities, thus providing insights into predicting the succession of microbial communities and underlying mechanisms that drive them under future climate scenarios. • Microbial indicator taxa displayed obvious temporal distribution patterns. • Eukaryotes showed higher temporal turnover rate than bacteria. • MAT, TP and N:P influenced prokaryotic and eukaryotic communities in past 600 years.

A 23.7-year long daily growth rate record of a modern giant clam shell from South China Sea and its potential in high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction

Tridacna spp. usually have annual and even daily growth bands, and thus provide great potential to be the high-resolution recorders of past climate and environmental changes of the ocean. However, current studies mainly focus on the geochemical records of Tridacna shells, the environmental and climatic implications of long time sequenced daily growth increments are relatively unexplored. In this study, based on the confocal microscopic line-scanning imaging, a 23.7-year long (from 5 June 1989 to 21 February 2013) daily growth rate (DGR) record of Tridacna gigas shell MD3 from southern South China Sea was established and its climatic implication was investigated. On seasonal scale, significant positive correlation was found between the DGR and sea surface temperature (SST). The main growing season of T. gigas MD3 was from March to August, when sufficient sunlight and warmer SST prevailed. While high rainfall (low sunlight) from September to December and low SST from December to March hindered the growth of the shell in autumn and winter. On an inter-annual scale, the DGR of the shell varied periodically on timescales of 2–3 years and 4–5 years, which possibly represented the impacts of the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation activities respectively. Our result suggested that the daily growth lines of T. gigas can establish an extraordinarily high-resolution chronology and have high potential to explore daily to inter-annual paleoenvironmental changes in tropical ocean. Compared with the paleoclimate reconstructions of geochemical approaches, this method has the advantages of low cost and short experimental time. • A modern Tridacna shell from southern SCS has clear daily growth bands. • 23.7-year long daily growth rate (DGR) profile was obtained. • Seasonal variation of the DGR was positively correlated with local SST. • DGR has potential to reconstruct daily to inter-annual paleoclimate changes. • DGR analysis is simpler, faster and less cost compared to geochemical approaches.

Tree-ring oxygen isotopes record a decrease in Amazon dry season rainfall over the past 40 years

Extant climate observations suggest the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin has become longer and drier over recent decades. However, such possible intensification of the Amazon dry season and its underlying causes are still a matter of debate. Here we used oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ18OTR) from six floodplain trees from the western Amazon to assess changes in past climate. Our analysis shows that δ18OTR of these trees is negatively related to inter-annual variability of precipitation during the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin, consistent with a Rayleigh rainout model. Furthermore δ18OTR increases by approximately 2‰ over the last four decades (~ 1970–2014) providing evidence of an Amazon drying trend independent from satellite and in situ rainfall observations. Using a Rayleigh rainout framework, we estimate basin-wide dry season rainfall to have decreased by up to 30%. The δ18OTR record further suggests such drying trend may not be unprecedented over the past 80 years. Analysis of δ18OTR with sea surface temperatures indicates a strong role of a warming Tropical North Atlantic Ocean in driving this long-term increase in δ18OTR and decrease in dry season rainfall.

MIXED EVIDENCE FOR NICHE CONSERVATISM IN MOUNTAIN BEAVER (APLODONTIA RUFA) LINEAGES

Range shifts in response to past climatic changes have been documented in a variety of species and have often resulted in the isolation of relict populations. Understanding how these isolated populations develop local adaptations or maintain their historic climatic niche is crucial to creating effective management plans in the face of current climate change. While Mountain Beavers (Aplodontia rufa) have endured through major climatic shifts in the past, they maintain physiological constraints that limit their distribution to cool, humid climates. Increasing temperatures since the last glacial maximum likely had a strong influence in reducing their range. The species now persists as 5 genetically distinct clades, but it is not clear to what extent climatic differences have driven genetic isolation compared to other factors like topography. We compared species-distribution models (SDMs) for the 5 clades of Mountain Beaver to understand whether this species tends towards niche conservatism or adapts to local climates. Presence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility were divided into clades and combined with climatic layers from BioClim to develop SDMs for each clade. Niche overlap was then compared to genetic relatedness between all pairings of clades. High temperatures were a limiting factor in distribution for all clades and, despite a low level of niche overlap at broad scales, Mountain Beavers appeared to display some level of niche conservatism. These landscape level SDMs showed that some clades do exist in a warmer climate than other Mountain Beavers; however, fine-scale models for the Point Arena subspecies suggested they persist by selecting the coolest places within that range. This suggests that niche overlap between clades may be higher than what is detected at the coarser scale. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms limiting the distribution of these subspecies.

Mechanical forcing of the North American monsoon by orography.

A band of intense rainfall extends more than 1,000 km along Mexico's west coast during Northern Hemisphere summer, constituting the core of the North American monsoon1,2. As in other tropical monsoons, this rainfall maximum is commonly thought to be thermally forced by emission of heat from land and elevated terrain into the overlying atmosphere3-5, but a clear understanding of the fundamental mechanism governing this monsoon is lacking. Here we show that the core North American monsoon is generated when Mexico's Sierra Madre mountains deflect the extratropical jet stream towards the Equator, mechanically forcing eastward, upslope flow that lifts warm and moist air to produce convective rainfall. These findings are based on analyses of dynamic and thermodynamic structures in observations, global climate model integrations and adiabatic stationary wave solutions. Land surface heat fluxes do precondition the atmosphere for convection, particularly in summer afternoons, but these heat fluxes alone are insufficient for producing the observed rainfall maximum. Our results indicate that the core North American monsoon should be understood as convectively enhanced orographic rainfall in a mechanically forced stationary wave, not as a classic, thermally forced tropical monsoon. This has implications for the response of the North American monsoon to past and future global climate change, making trends in jet stream interactions with orography of central importance.

Data set | Evaluation of Lake Sediment Thickness from Water-Borne Electrical Resistivity Tomography Data

Lakes are integrators of past climate and ecological change. This information is stored in the sediment record at the lake bottom, and to make it available for paleoclimate research, potential target sites with undisturbed and continuous sediment sequences need to be identified. Different geophysical methods are suitable to identify, explore, and characterize sediment layers prior to sediment core recovery. Due to the high resolution, reflection seismic methods have become standard for this purpose. However, seismic measurements cannot always provide a comprehensive image of lake-bottom sediments, e.g., due to lacking seismic contrasts between geological units or high attenuation of seismic waves. Here, we developed and tested a complementary method based on water-borne electrical-resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements. Our setup consisted of 13 floating electrodes (at 5 m spacing) used to collect ERT data with a dipole–dipole configuration. We used a 1D inversion to adjust a layered-earth model, which facilitates the implementation of constraints on water depth, water resistivity, and sediment resistivity as a priori information. The first two parameters were readily obtained from the echo-sounder and conductivity-probe measurements. The resistivity of sediment samples can also be determined in the laboratory. We applied this approach to process ERT data collected on a lake in southern Mexico. The direct comparison of ERT data with reflection seismic data collected with a sub-bottom profiler (SBP) showed that we can significantly improve the sediment-thickness estimates compared to unconstrained 2D inversions. Down to water depths of 20 m, our sediment thickness estimates were close to the sediment thickness derived from collocated SBP seismograms. Our approach represents an implementation of ERT measurements on lakes and complements the standard lake-bottom exploration by reflection seismic methods.

Coat Polymorphism in Eurasian Lynx: Adaptation to Environment or Phylogeographic Legacy?

We studied the relationship between the variability and contemporary distribution of pelage phenotypes in one of most widely distributed felid species and an array of environmental and demographic conditions. We collected 672 photographic georeferenced records of the Eurasian lynx throughout Eurasia. We assigned each lynx coat to one of five phenotypes. Then we fitted the coat patterns to different environmental and anthropogenic variables, as well as the effective geographic distances from inferred glacial refugia. A majority of lynx were either of the large spotted (41.5%) or unspotted (uniform, 36.2%) phenotype. The remaining patterns (rosettes, small spots and pseudo-rosettes) were represented in 11.0%, 7.4%, and 3.9% of samples, respectively. Although various environmental variables greatly affected lynx distribution and habitat suitability, it was the effect of least-cost distances from locations of the inferred refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum that explained the distribution of lynx coat patterns the best. Whereas the occurrence of lynx phenotypes with large spots was explained by the proximity to refugia located in the Caucasus/Middle East, the uniform phenotype was associated with refugia in the Far East and Central Asia. Despite the widely accepted hypothesis of adaptive functionality of coat patterns in mammals and exceptionally high phenotypic polymorphism in Eurasian lynx, we did not find well-defined signs of habitat matching in the coat pattern of this species. Instead, we showed how the global patterns of morphological variability in this large mammal and its environmental adaptations may have been shaped by past climatic change.

Southern Baffin Island mean annual precipitation isotopes modulated by summer and autumn moisture source changes during the past 5800 years

ABSTRACTPaleo water isotope records can elucidate how the Arctic water cycle responded to past climate changes. We analyze the hydrogen isotope composition (δ2H) of plant‐derived n‐alkanoic acids (waxes) from Lake Qaupat, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, to assess moisture sources and seasonality during the past 5.8 ka. We compare this record to a sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA)‐inferred vascular plant record from the same lake, aiming to overcome the uncertainty of plant community impacts on leaf waxes. As the sedaDNA record reveals a stable plant community after the colonization of Betula sp. at 6.1 ka, we interpret plant wax δ2H values to reflect climate, specifically mean annual precipitation δ2H. However, the distributions of n‐alkanoic acid homologs suggest that aquatic mosses, which are not represented in the sedaDNA record, may become more abundant towards the present. Therefore, we cannot exclude the possibility that changes in the plant community cause changes in the plant wax δ2H record, particularly long‐chain waxes, which become less abundant through this record. We find that Lake Qaupat mid‐chain plant wax δ2H is enriched coincident with high Labrador Sea summer surface temperature, which suggests that local moisture sources in summer and early autumn have the greatest impact on precipitation isotopes in this region.

Controls on Terrigenous Detritus Deposition and Oceanography Changes in the Central Okhotsk Sea Over the Past 1550 ka

The Okhotsk Sea, which connects the high latitude Asian continent and the North Pacific, plays an important role in modern and past climate changes due to seasonal sea ice coverage and as a precursor of the North Pacific Intermediate Water. The long-term glacial-interglacial changes of sea ice coverage and its impacts on terrigenous transport and surface primary productivity in the Okhotsk Sea remain, however, not well constrained. Base on the paleomagnetic, rock magnetic, micropaleontological (diatom), and geochemical studies of the marine sediment core MD01-2414 (53°11.77′N, 149°34.80′E, water depth: 1,123 m) taken in the central Okhotsk Sea, we reconstruct the terrigenous sediment transport and paleoceanographic variations during the past 1550 thousand years (kyr). Seventeen geomagnetic excursions are identified from the paleomagnetic directional record. Close to the bottom of the core, an excursion was observed, which is proposed to be the Gilsa event ∼1550 thousand years ago (ka). During glacial intervals, our records reveal a wide extension of sea ice coverage and low marine productivity. We observed ice-rafted debris from mountain icebergs composed of coarse and high magnetic terrigenous detritus which were derived from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the central Okhotsk basin. Still during glacial intervals, the initiation (i.e., at ∼900 ka) of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition marks the changes to even lower marine productivity, suggesting that sea-ice coverage became larger during the last 900 ka. During interglacial intervals, the central Okhotsk Sea was either devoid of sea-ice or the ice was at best seasonal; resulting in high marine productivity. The weaker formation of Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Water, lower ventilation, and microbial degradation of organic matter depleted the oxygen concentration in the bottom water and created a reduced environment condition in the sea basin. The freshwater supplied by snow or glacier melting from Siberia and Kamchatka delivered fine grain sediments to the Okhotsk Sea. During the stronger interglacial intervals after the Mid-Brunhes Transition (i.e., Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5e, 9, and 11), strong freshwater discharges from Amur River drainage area are in association with intensified East Asian Summer Monsoon. This process may have enhanced the input of fine-grained terrigenous sediments to the central Okhotsk Sea.

Testing the CMIP6 GCM Simulations versus Surface Temperature Records from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021: High ECS Is Not Supported

The last-generation CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) are currently used to interpret past and future climatic changes and to guide policymakers, but they are very different from each other; for example, their equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) varies from 1.83 to 5.67 °C (IPCC AR6, 2021). Even assuming that some of them are sufficiently reliable for scenario forecasts, such a large ECS uncertainty requires a pre-selection of the most reliable models. Herein the performance of 38 CMIP6 models are tested in reproducing the surface temperature changes observed from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021 in three temperature records: ERA5-T2m, ERA5-850mb, and UAH MSU v6.0 Tlt. Alternative temperature records are briefly discussed but found to be not appropriate for the present analysis because they miss data over large regions. Significant issues emerge: (1) most GCMs overestimate the warming observed during the last 40 years; (2) there is great variability among the models in reconstructing the climatic changes observed in the Arctic; (3) the ocean temperature is usually overestimated more than the land one; (4) in the latitude bands 40° N–70° N and 50° S–70° S (which lay at the intersection between the Ferrel and the polar atmospheric cells) the CMIP6 GCMs overestimate the warming; (5) similar discrepancies are present in the east-equatorial pacific region (which regulates the ENSO) and in other regions where cooling trends are observed. Finally, the percentage of the world surface where the (positive or negative) model-data discrepancy exceeds 0.2, 0.5 and 1.0 °C is evaluated. The results indicate that the models with low ECS values (for example, 3 °C or less) perform significantly better than those with larger ECS. Therefore, the low ECS models should be preferred for climate change scenario forecasts while the other models should be dismissed and not used by policymakers. In any case, significant model-data discrepancies are still observed over extended world regions for all models: on average, the GCM predictions disagree from the data by more than 0.2 °C (on a total mean warming of about 0.5 °C from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021) over more than 50% of the global surface. This result suggests that climate change and its natural variability remain poorly modeled by the CMIP6 GCMs. Finally, the ECS uncertainty problem is discussed, and it is argued (also using semi-empirical climate models that implement natural oscillations not predicted by the GCMs) that the real ECS could be between 1 and 2 °C, which implies moderate warming for the next decades.

Influence of historical changes in tropical reef habitat on the diversification of coral reef fishes

Past environmental changes are expected to have profoundly impacted diversity dynamics through time. While some previous studies showed an association between past climate changes or tectonic events and important shifts in lineage diversification, it is only recently that past environmental changes have been explicitly integrated in diversification models to test their influence on diversification rates. Here, we used a global reconstruction of tropical reef habitat dynamics during the Cenozoic and phylogenetic diversification models to test the influence of (i) major geological events, (ii) reef habitat fragmentation and (iii) reef area on the diversification of 9 major clades of tropical reef fish (Acanthuridae, Balistoidea, Carangoidea, Chaetodontidae, Haemulinae, Holocentridae, Labridae, Pomacentridae and Sparidae). The diversification models revealed a weak association between paleo-habitat changes and diversification dynamics. Specifically, the fragmentation of tropical reef habitats over the Cenozoic was found to be a driver of tropical reef fish diversification for 2 clades. However, overall, our approach did not allow the identification of striking associations between diversification dynamics and paleo-habitat fragmentation in contrast with theoretical model’s predictions.

Interrogating glacier mass balance response to climatic change since the Little Ice Age: reconstructions for the Jotunheimen region, southern Norway

Developing a long‐term understanding of the cryosphere is important in the study of past climatic change. Here we used a nested approach combining diverse instrumental (monthly meteorological data from four weather stations, as well as gridded data) and proxy data (based on blue intensity measurements from local tree ring records) to create a reconstruction of past summer temperature for the central Jotunheimen area in southern Norway. This record was then used to reconstruct annual glacier mass balance from 1962, the start of the yearly measurements, back to 1722, immediately prior to the regional Little Ice Age maximum. Our reconstruction of the ‘average’ Jotunheimen cumulative glacier mass balance is based on three representative glaciers (Storbreen, Hellstugubreen and Gråsubreen) that were synthesized into one composite record which we term ‘Gjennomsnittsbreen’ (‘mean glacier’ in Norwegian) to filter out localized controls on the behaviour of individual glaciers. While not ignoring the role of precipitation on glacier mass balance, our reconstruction demonstrates that glaciers in this region exhibit a strong summer temperature control and appear to have been declining more or less continuously since the mid‐18th century. However, it also shows that this long‐term trend of overall retreat in Jotunheimen is punctuated by relatively short‐lived periods of neutral or occasionally positive glacier mass balance, signifying periods of stillstand or small‐scale glacier advance. These periods or ‘events’ in our reconstruction were compared with an independent record of 12 moraine‐building events developed using lichenometry. A minimum of 10 of the moraine‐building events identifiable in our reconstruction were also identifiable in the lichenometric data which affords confidence in the performance of our interrogative model. A critical implication of this successful glacier mass balance reconstruction based on just summer temperature is that for Jotunheimen – in contrast to Norwegian maritime glaciers further to the west – there is no need (as was proposed in some previous studies) to invoke large, prolonged increases in winter snowfall to explain glacier advances, not even for events such as the Little Ice Age.