Passenger Modes Research Articles

Working from home 22 months on from the beginning of COVID-19: What have we learned for the future provision of transport services?

COVID-19 has delivered an unintended positive consequence through working from home (WFH). While it may be some time until we are able to indicate, with some confidence, the impact that WFH will have on traffic congestion and crowding on public transport, there is a sense already that it is a game changer, and indeed is one of the most effective policy levers that the transport sector has had for many years in ‘managing’ the performance of the transport network. This paper draws on multiple ways of survey data that have been collected since March 2020 when the pandemic first resulted in severe restrictions in Australia. We present the evidence up to December 2021 on the incidence of WFH in two geographical jurisdiction – the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA) and South-East Queensland (SEQ) - and how it has been received by employees and employers from the height of restrictions up to a period when restrictions were relaxed, followed by further lockdowns throughout Australia. We show what this might mean for work productivity, lifestyle, and the changing preferences for passenger modes. With a growing preference, within some occupation classes, to WFH 1–2 days a week, and a good spread through the weekdays, we discuss what this means for the way we analyse the impact of transport initiatives on the performance of the transport network with a particular emphasis on the growth in suburbanisation of transport improvements, less costly service and infrastructure improvements, and the changing role of public transport.

A Versatile Model for Estimating the Fuel Consumption of a Wide Range of Transport Modes

The importance of a flexible and comprehensive vehicle fuel consumption model cannot be understated for understanding the implications of the modal changes currently occurring in the transportation sector. In this study, a model is developed to determine the tank-to-wheel energy demand for passenger and freight transportation within Germany for different modes of transport. These modes include light-duty vehicles (LDVs), heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), airplanes, trains, ships, and unmanned aviation. The model further estimates future development through 2050. Utilizing standard driving cycles, backward-looking longitudinal vehicle models are employed to determine the energy demand for all on-road vehicle modes. For non-road vehicle modes, energy demand from the literature is drawn upon to develop the model. It is found that various vehicle parameters exert different effects on vehicle energy demand, depending on the driving scenario. Public transportation offers the most energy-efficient means of travel in the forms of battery electric buses (33.9 MJ/100 pkm), battery electric coaches (21.3 MJ/100 pkm), fuel cell electric coaches (32.9 MJ/100 pkm), trams (43.3 MJ/100 pkm), and long-distance electric trains (31.8 MJ/100 pkm). International shipping (9.9 MJ/100 tkm) is the most energy-efficient means of freight transport. The electrification of drivetrains and the implementation of regenerative braking show large potential for fuel consumption reduction, especially in urban areas. Occupancy and loading rates for vehicles play a critical role in determining the energy demand per passenger-kilometer for passenger modes, and tonne-kilometer for freight modes.

Modelling of road traffic fatalities in India

Passenger modes in India include walking, cycling, buses, trains, intermediate public transport modes (IPT) such as three-wheeled auto rickshaws or tuk-tuks, motorised two-wheelers (2W) as well as cars. However, epidemiological studies of traffic crashes in India have been limited in their approach to account for the exposure of these road users. In 2011, for the first time, census in India reported travel distance and mode of travel for workers. A Poisson-lognormal mixture regression model is developed at the state level to explore the relationship of road deaths of all the road users with commute travel distance by different on-road modes. The model controlled for diesel consumption (proxy for freight traffic), length of national highways, proportion of population in urban areas, and built-up population density. The results show that walking, cycling and, interestingly, IPT are associated with lower risk of road deaths, while 2W, car and bus are associated with higher risk. Promotion of IPT has twofold benefits of increasing safety as well as providing a sustainable mode of transport. The mode shift scenarios show that, for similar mode shift across the states, the resulting trends in road deaths are highly dependent on the baseline mode shares. The most worrying trend is the steep growth of death burden resulting from mode shift of walking and cycling to 2W. While the paper illustrates a limited set of mode shift scenarios involving two modes at a time, the model can be applied to assess safety impacts resulting from a more complex set of scenarios.

VAT-induced Distortions in the Passenger Transport System in the European Union: Assessment and Options for Reform

This paper is based on a study by the same authors recently published by the European Commission. It provides an economic assessment of the impact of current VAT regimes on passenger transport in the EU, and the likely effects of alternative regimes.After a review of the features of the passenger transport industry as they relate to VAT, the paper identifies and assesses a number of distortions arising from unequal VAT treatment of operators or passengers. Using a series of transport-related econometric models it then evaluates a number of changes in the VAT regime that could address those distortions.The main conclusion is that the distortions introduced by the rather byzantine current VAT system are small- or medium-sized.For the distortions on output (passenger demand), a large part of the explanation of their small impact is in the low ‘pass through’ of changes in costs to changes in fares, and the low system-wide elasticities of demand; for input distortions, the main explanation is in the ability of operators to reclaim VAT incurred on inputs, so the only cost distortion is that some operators incur additional financing costs between when VAT is paid and when it is rebated. These costs are small because of the short time between payment and reimbursement and the current low interest rates on that financing.The paper identifies one set of measures that addresses output distortions deriving from different VAT rates and place of supply rules and another addresses input distortions.The paper also provides valuable insights for tax administrations. It reveals an enormous potential of the application of VAT in the passenger transport sector with regard to generating revenue, and the small impact of applying simpler VAT rates.We can conclude that a simplified and harmonised application of VAT on all passenger modes, markets and all member states (aimed at elimination or reducing the distortions of the current VAT regime) would have only a small impact on both operators and passengers.

Worldwide Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potentials in Transportation by 2050

SummaryReductions in the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of passenger and freight transportation are possible through adoption of fuel‐saving technologies, demand switching between modes, and large‐scale electrification of fleets, in addition to other actions. In this study, future scenarios to 2030 and 2050 are the basis for assessment of GHG reduction potentials for major passenger and freight modes (automobiles, buses, trains, aircraft, and oceangoing vessels) across eight regions of the world. New fuel‐saving technologies can significantly reduce the life‐cycle GHG footprint of both passenger and freight vehicles, but not uniformly worldwide. Countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lag behind OECD countries in GHG reduction potentials for all modes but oceangoing vessels owing to a combination of slower adoption of fuel‐saving technologies and a slower decarbonization of electricity generation and other processes. The reduction of GHG intensity will occur more slowly for freight modes than for passenger modes. However, improved fuel efficiency has negative feedbacks to the effectiveness of mode‐switching and alternative fuel adoption policies through 2050 because improvements in the fuel efficiency of vehicles alone may cause the marginal benefits of GHG abatement policies to diminish over time. This trend may be reversed if alternative fuel pathways decarbonize at faster rates than conventional transportation fuels. The largest opportunities for GHG reductions occur in non‐OECD countries. Given the many factors that distinguish transportation systems between developed and developing nations (e.g., availability of new technologies, the financial ability to acquire them, and policies to incentivize their adoption), many benefits could be gained through interregional cooperation.

Parameter Optimization and Operating Strategy of a TEG System for Railway Vehicles

A thermoelectric generator (TEG) system demonstrator for diesel electric locomotives with the objective of reducing the mechanical load on the thermoelectric modules (TEM) is developed and constructed to validate a one-dimensional thermo-fluid flow simulation model. The model is in good agreement with the measurements and basis for the optimization of the TEG’s geometry by a genetic multi objective algorithm. The best solution has a maximum power output of approx. 2.7 kW and does not exceed the maximum back pressure of the diesel engine nor the maximum TEM hot side temperature. To maximize the reduction of the fuel consumption, an operating strategy regarding the system power output for the TEG system is developed. Finally, the potential consumption reduction in passenger and freight traffic operating modes is estimated under realistic driving conditions by means of a power train and lateral dynamics model. The fuel savings are between 0.5% and 0.7%, depending on the driving style.

Planning for Urban Freight Transport: An Overview

Urban freight transport is essential to the functioning of cities, but is also an activity that affects the urban environment and communities. Yet, freight is often overlooked in discussions of urban transport, in contrast to passenger modes. Much freight research emphasises questions of operations and network management but is less attentive to the links between freight transport and urban development. New efforts are needed to improve understanding of the link between urban freight and cities. This paper presents a broad discussion of the links between urban freight transport and urban planning through an overview of the literature in the field. The paper discusses key problems confronting planning and policies for urban freight transport in relation to its importance, impacts, interrelationship between stakeholders, institutions, influencing factors and challenges. The paper proposes a revitalised agenda for planning for urban freight and identifies key directions for further research, particularly around the land-use, environmental and institutional dimensions of urban freight management. By identifying major underdeveloped areas of urban freight research, the paper offers guidance as to key issues that will need to be addressed as freight grows as a proportion of the urban transport task.

Trip generation: Introduction to the special section

This paper introduces a set of articles about how transportation planners need better tools for estimating trip generation, and to develop better tools we need more data collection, especially methods that capture passenger trips by personal vehicles, transit, walking, and bicycling, as well as freight trips. With such data in hand, researchers would be able to develop models that both produce more accurate estimates of vehicle trips and generate trip estimates for other passenger modes and for freight. Such estimates would help to ensure adequate provision for these modes and not just for cars.

Emerging travel trends, high-speed rail, and the public reinvention of U.S. transportation

By examining emerging travel trends and the resurgence of rail transport in the United States, this paper suggests that deploying high-speed rail (HSR) in the U.S. could help accelerate a transportation paradigm shift that is already underway, increase density, improve the service and sustainability of transportation, and accelerate economic activity. This shift is especially notable among young Americans who are driving less, buying fewer cars, and settling in urban areas where they can walk, bike, and use public transport. Meanwhile, baby boomers, though driving more than previous generations did at the same age, are joining this urbanizing trend and, as they grow older, seeking mobility alternatives to car dependence. Other trends, such as the transformation of society by mobile communication and digital technology, are also affecting change and forcing planners to re-think the current imbalance of the U.S. transport system. Using the success revealed by passenger rail services in the Northeast Corridor, this paper examines how high-speed rail and its station hubs could enhance urbanization and help to rebalance the three main passenger modes—road, air, and rail—so that each flourishes within its most sustainable niche. In these ways, the benefits of HSR extend beyond rail service itself to include this mode's ability to reinvent the transportation system in ways that better serve the needs of a changing society while urgently addressing livability and sustainability.

The effect of male teenage passengers on male teenage drivers: Findings from a driving simulator study

Studies have shown that teenage drivers are less attentive, more frequently exhibit risky driving behavior, and have a higher fatal crash risk in the presence of peers. The effects of direct peer pressure and conversation on young drivers have been examined. Little is known about the impact on driving performance of the presence of a non-interacting passenger and subtle modes of peer influence, such as perceived social norms. The goal of this study was to examine if teenagers would engage in more risky driving practices and be less attentive in the presence of a passenger (vs. driving alone) as well as with a risk-accepting (vs. risk-averse) passenger. A confederate portrayed the passenger's characteristics mainly by his non-verbal attitude. The relationship between driver characteristics and driving behavior in the presence of a passenger was also examined. Thirty-six male participants aged 16–17 years old were randomly assigned to drive with a risk-accepting or risk-averse passenger. Main outcomes included speed, headway, gap acceptance, eye glances at hazards, and horizontal eye movement. Driver characteristics such as tolerance of deviance, susceptibility to peer pressure, and self-esteem were measured. Compared to solo driving, the presence of a passenger was associated with significantly fewer eye glances at hazards and a trend for fewer horizontal eye movements. Contrary to the hypothesis, however, Passenger Presence was associated with waiting for a greater number of vehicles to pass before initiating a left turn. Results also showed, contrary to the hypothesis, that participants with the risk-accepting passenger maintained significantly longer headway with the lead vehicle and engaged in more eye glances at hazards than participants with the risk-averse passenger. Finally, when driving with the passenger, earlier initiation of a left turn in a steady stream of oncoming vehicles was significantly associated with higher tolerance of deviance and susceptibility to peer pressure, while fewer eye glances at hazards was linked to lower self-esteem. While the results of this study were mixed, they suggest that the presence of a teenage passenger can affect some aspects of teenage driver behavior even in the absence of overt pressure and distraction. Results are discussed in relation to theoretical concepts of social influence and social facilitation models.

Ex post socio-economic assessment of the Oresund Bridge

The paper presents an ex post socio-economic assessment of the Oresund Bridge conducted ten years after the opening in July 2000. The study applies historical micro data to re construct the travel pattern with no bridge in place and compare this to the current situation. To complete the socio-economic assessment, the consumer benefits including all freight and passenger modes, are compared with the cost profile of the bridge. The monetary contributions are extrapolated to a complete 50 year period. It is revealed that the bridge from 2000–2010 generated a consumer surplus of €2 billion in 2000 prices discounted at 3.5% p.a., which should be compared with a total construction cost of approximately €4 billion. Seen over the 50 year period and by assuming a medium growth scenario the bridge is expected to generate an internal rate of return in the magnitude of 9% corresponding to a benefit-cost rate of 2.2.A main advantage of analysing infrastructure ex post is the ability to learn and understand behavioural and methodological elements not foreseen at the ex ante stages. Following this we offer an extended discussion including two parts. Firstly we compare the ex ante predictions for the bridge to the current transport flows. The importance of having the right assumptions and the ability to model the phasing-in process are underlined. Secondly, we offer a wider discussion on why some projects are more beneficial than others. This is done by comparing the Oresund Bridge, the Channel Tunnel, and the Great Belt Link.

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures.

Autos, transit and bicycles: Comparing the costs in large Chinese cities

This study compares the full costs of seven passenger modes in the large Chinese cities facing the difficult yet crucial choice among alternative passenger transportation systems. The seven modes are evaluated at varied traffic volumes in hypothetical radial and circumferential commuting corridors. Using detailed estimates of private and social costs, the full cost of each mode is minimized by optimizing infrastructure investment and operation plans. On all corridors and across different scenarios, commuting by one or more forms of bus transit or bicycle costs less than automobile or rail. Nonetheless, in circumferential corridors, rail can be almost as cost-effective as bus under certain conditions, and bicycle can be less cost-effective than bus in some cases. Unlike results from similar studies conducted in the US, automobile commuting does not cost less than bus transportation at low traffic volumes.

Modifying transport prices to internalise externalities: evidence from European case studies

This paper examines the implications of the valuation of air pollution and other externalities of transport infrastructure use in the context of the European Commission’s proposals for pricing based on marginal social costs. The aim is to examine the implications for transport prices, and hence transport demand and air pollution from the transport sector, by comparing existing variable taxes and charges with forecasts of marginal costs for different passenger and freight modes in 2010. The main finding is that economically efficient prices will only have a positive impact on transport emissions in a limited range of transport contexts.

Policies to reduce energy use and environmental emissions in the transport sector: A case of Delhi city

This paper aims to analyze factors influencing energy consumption pattern and emission levels in the transport sector of Delhi, and extrapolates total energy demand and the vehicular emissions, using a computer-based software called ‘Long Range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP) and the associated ‘Environmental Database (EDB)’. The study is restricted to passenger modes of transport in Delhi and does not include the freight model. Travel demand is first estimated by analyzing data on vehicle population, average distance travelled, and occupancy level. Next, data on travel demand, proportion of travel demand catered by road and rail, modal split, occupancy and fuel efficiency are compiled within the LEAP framework, in order to estimate the energy demand in Delhi. In addition, emission factors are compiled under EDB module of the LEAP structure to estimate the resultant pollution loading. The LEAP model is run under five alternative scenarios to estimate the current consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in Delhi and forecast the same for the years 1994/1995, 2000/2001, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010, respectively. Under each scenario, the model also estimates emissions of CO, HC, NO x, SO 2, Pb and TSP. The total emissions are translated into concentration levels attributable to the passenger transport to get an indication of air quality in Delhi. This is accomplished by the use of proportional air quality model. Finally, scenario results are analyzed to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that will reduce the growth of fuel demand and emissions. The prime objective is to arrive at an optimal transport policy that limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.

Road Transport in Indian Cities: Energy – Environment Implications

The paper examines the general overview of problems associated with traffic growth and composition of traffic flow characteristics, the levels of mobility and constraints on mobility like traffic congestion and speed reduction on important arteries, variation in trip rate and trip length, modal distribution of passenger trips, in seventeen metropolitan cities in India. As the cities of different sizes have varied problems due to many factors, such as basic road system, transport modes operating, the nature and composition of the traffic, the seventeen cities are grouped into three categories on the basis of population size of the city – large (over 5 million), medium (2–4 million) and small (1–2 million) to examine the linkage between the size of the city and traffic and travel related parameters. Linear econometric relationships are established between travel demand parameters (volume of trips, trip length, vehicle population, passenger car units) and urban size and economic structure of the city. The paper considers only passenger modes of transport and does not include freight modes. Passenger travel demand is estimated for each city during 1990–91 (base year) and projected for 2000–01 under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, by analyzing data on vehicle population, average distance travelled, and occupancy level. Next, data on travel demand and operating energy intensity are compiled for each city for estimating demand of petrol (motor spirit) and diesel oil for the two years – 1990–91 and 2000–01. Finally, the resultant emissions of TSP, SO2 CO, NOx, HC, Pb are estimated for the corresponding years using data on emission factors and fuel demand for the corresponding years. The paper suggests the desirable cost-effective solution (of how to move people with less vehicles using less energy and spewing out less pollution) could be achieved by increasing the share of public transport in large, medium and small size cities.

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN WORK-TRIP LENGTH: EXPLANATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Many studies have shown that women work closer to home than do men, but few have probed the reasons for this persistent finding and none has done so at the metropolitan scale or considered the link between journey-to-work patterns and the occupational segregation of women. We first review the various possible reasons for women's shorter journeys to work and then examine each of these with data from the Baltimore, Maryland SMSA. We compare the work-trip distances and times of 303 employed women with those of 484 men, drawn from the 1977 Baltimore Travel Demand Data. As expected, women's work trips are significantly shorter than men's in both travel time and distance Women's lower incomes, their concentration in female-dominated occupations, and their greater reliance on the bus and auto passenger modes all help to explain their shorter work trips Male-female differences in part— versus full-time work status, occupational group, and, most surprisingly, household responsibility, did not, however, contribute ...

Passenger rail in North America in the light of developments in Western Europe and Japan

Because of different geo‐demographic and economic conditions, the impact of the new passenger modes (road and air) on rail travel was much larger in North America than in Europe. In 1960s and 1970s, as the railway share of intercity traffic in North America shrunk to a negligible one or two percent, the passenger trains were abandoned by private railway companies and taken over by state organizations, which have continued to operate traditional trains and generate mounting losses. On the technology side, no attempts have been made to improve competitiveness of trains vis‐a‐vis automobiles and airplanes. In Europe and Japan, the railways responded to the challenge by (i) upgrading the performance (speed) and comfort of traditional trains operating on existing tracks and (ii) developing trains which could, on short and intermediate range distances, compete successfully, in terms of speed and economy, with the road and air modes. The Japanese (Shinkansen trains) and French (TGV trains) experience clearly shows that trains operating on dedicated lines at average speeds of 150 to 200 km/hr provide a superior transportation service and economy on high‐traffic intercity routes of up to about 500 km length. In this paper the factors responsible for the present status of passenger rail in North America are analysed, the current policies in the U.S. and Canada are evaluated in the light of experience to date and developments abroad, and suggestions for a long‐term passenger rail policy are made. This includes examination of (i) the viability of continued subsidization of traditional train services, (ii) the viability of operation of faster trains on existing tracks, (iii) the scope for introduction of modern, fast trains on dedicated lines in high‐density, intercity corridors, (iv) the application of fast trains as access to major airports and integration of airports with fast intercity lines, and (v) the impact of energy (oil) consumption in transportation.

The structure of intercity travel demands in Canada: Theory tests and empirical results

This paper presents results of an econometric study study of intercity travel demands in Canada, 1961–1976. A translog form of reciprocal indirect utility function is used to test the structure of preferences in five demand sectors: three travel modes, goods and other services. Travel sector preferences are found to be time- and season varying but independent of average weekly work hours. The aggregate results indicate that the demands for all three passenger modes are price-elastic; bus and rail exhibit moderate complementarity, while rail and air are weakly complementary. The most important result derived from our tests of separability was that the demand system for the three passenger modes is inextricably tied to the rest of the economy, and therefore, may not be studied in isolation from the goods and other services sectors.

Temporal Stability of Modal Choice Models

A number of methods for evaluating the temporal stability of travel demand models are outlined. Several of the methods are applied to disaggregate modal choice models for CBD work trips in Detroit for 1953 and 1965. Graphical analysis is used initially to evaluate the probability of using the bus, auto driver, and auto passenger modes as a function of travel time difference and autos owned. Based on the graphical analysis, binary choice models using linear regression are developed and tested statistically for temporal stability. Chow’s tests for the equality of two sets of regression coefficients confirms the graphically observed lack of temporal stability. Improved specification of the auto driver model by including the variable, number of transit captives, does result in temporal stability. The lack of excess time and cost variables limit the generality of conclusions based on the models developed. Compatible data for a third time period are necessary to test fully the temporal stability assumption.