A Versatile Model for Estimating the Fuel Consumption of a Wide Range of Transport Modes

Abstract

The importance of a flexible and comprehensive vehicle fuel consumption model cannot be understated for understanding the implications of the modal changes currently occurring in the transportation sector. In this study, a model is developed to determine the tank-to-wheel energy demand for passenger and freight transportation within Germany for different modes of transport. These modes include light-duty vehicles (LDVs), heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), airplanes, trains, ships, and unmanned aviation. The model further estimates future development through 2050. Utilizing standard driving cycles, backward-looking longitudinal vehicle models are employed to determine the energy demand for all on-road vehicle modes. For non-road vehicle modes, energy demand from the literature is drawn upon to develop the model. It is found that various vehicle parameters exert different effects on vehicle energy demand, depending on the driving scenario. Public transportation offers the most energy-efficient means of travel in the forms of battery electric buses (33.9 MJ/100 pkm), battery electric coaches (21.3 MJ/100 pkm), fuel cell electric coaches (32.9 MJ/100 pkm), trams (43.3 MJ/100 pkm), and long-distance electric trains (31.8 MJ/100 pkm). International shipping (9.9 MJ/100 tkm) is the most energy-efficient means of freight transport. The electrification of drivetrains and the implementation of regenerative braking show large potential for fuel consumption reduction, especially in urban areas. Occupancy and loading rates for vehicles play a critical role in determining the energy demand per passenger-kilometer for passenger modes, and tonne-kilometer for freight modes.