Abstract
Freight transportation is closely related to economic development. Freight transportation will promote economic development, and economic development will also promote the growth of freight transportation. Therefore, quantitative analysis of the relationship between the two has certain research significance. This article explores the correlation between the two stages and different modes of transportation through coupling analysis, cointegration analysis, and gray correlation analysis based on the data from 1989 to 2018 of freight transportation volume and GDP. The study found that, overall, the growth of freight volume has a certain role in promoting economic growth, and the correlation between different modes of transportation is different. Among them, the correlation between water transportation1 and GDP is the strongest, and civil aviation is the weakest. The correlation between highways and GDP is stronger than that of railways, and railway freight transportation still has certain development potential under the conditions of green transportation and the "promoting railway instead of highway transportation" environment and transportation policies. According to the analysis, it is expected that the growth of freight volume will continue to drive economic growth in the future, but different modes of transportation will lead to different functions. Therefore, while continuing to maintain the development momentum of the freight transportation industry, adjusting a more reasonable transportation structure will be more conducive to China's economic development.
Highlights
In September 2019, the Program of Building National Strength in Transportation was proposed, which fully demonstrated the importance of the development of the transportation cause
The transportation industry is an important industry in the development of the national economy and a strong support for the development of the national economy, and freight transportation is an important part of the transportation industry
The development of freight transportation can promote China's economic growth, and the rapid economic development will increase the demand for freight transportation
Summary
In September 2019, the Program of Building National Strength in Transportation was proposed, which fully demonstrated the importance of the development of the transportation cause. From the Program of Building National Strength in Transportation, we can see the important ideas of the new era to promote the development of transportation and the important position and huge role of the transportation foundation. The transportation of goods is closely related to economic development, and the transportation volume of goods is an important measure of macroeconomic development and changes. In 2010, the British “The Economist” used the “Keqiang Index” with rail freight volume to assess China’s GDP growth. This shows that the relationship between freight transportation and economic development is close, and the volume of freight transportation has become an important reference indicator for measuring changes in macroeconomic development. To better analyze the correlation between China’s freight transportation and economic development, this article is based on the data of freight transportation and GDP from 1989 to 2018, analyzes the correlation between the two stages and different modes of transportation through coupling analysis, cointegration analysis and gray correlation analysis
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