Party Vote Research Articles

It’s Not Just Trump: Americans of Both Parties Support Liberal Democratic Norm Violations More Under Their Own President

Abstract There is a growing worry about the health of American democracy, and political scientists and pundits alike are looking for possible explanations. Surveys conducted during the Trump presidency showed considerable citizen support for liberal democratic norm erosions, especially among Republicans. However, recent experimental research also shows that voters of both parties are more tolerant of norm erosion committed by politicians of the party they prefer. In this note, we aim to reconcile these contradictory findings by analyzing surveys spanning from 2006 to 2021 on the public’s tolerance of executive concentration of power. We also collect original data under both the Trump and Biden administrations gauging support for a broad array of liberal democratic norm erosions. Support for such erosions, in fact, has been relatively similar across Democrats and Republicans once we account for the party of the president. Support for executive aggrandizement has been prevalent among supporters of the president’s party at least since the second term of the Bush administration. Increased checks and balances on the executive, through divided government, amplifies this effect further. Taken together, these findings suggest that universal support for the liberal democratic status quo has been weaker among those who support the president’s party, well before and since the Trump presidency.

Cut from the same cloth? Identifying a difference between populist parties in CEE and Western Europe

ABSTRACT This study investigates whether there is a significant difference between populist parties in the West and the CEE by looking at an average trend in the characteristics of populist parties per region, based on Chapel Hill survey data from 2002 to 2019. The measurement includes party maturity, vote share, ideological and economic left-right placement. The cultural axis tendencies show similarities between populist parties across the regions. The economic dimension showed a significant difference: radical-supply parties in CEE were identified on the economic right, whereas in the West, they were identified on the economic left across estimations.

Partisan (A) Symmetries in Hardball: Mass Level Support of Hardball Equivalent Across Party and Race

Constitutional hardball is when partisan actors engage in legal tactics that violate democratic norms for political advantage. The Republican Party seems to have engaged in hardball more than the Democratic Party in recent years, which is surprising as both parties should be similarly incentivized to use hardball. This asymmetry in elite behavior could reflect differences in what each parties’ coalitions tolerate. For example, non-white voters might oppose hardball tactics more than white voters for reasons such as hardball historically being used to enforce racial hierarchies. If true, that could constrain on Democratic elites’ actions more Republican elites due to Democrats’ more racially diverse base. I draw on a long line of research on partisanship and group interest to argue instead that both white and non-white voters of both parties should be similarly disposed towards hardball. This article then marshals data from the American National Election Survey (ANES) and original surveys to test that argument. In support of my hypotheses, I find white and non-white members of both parties have similar levels of support and similar motivations for hardball. Political elites are likely free to engage in undemocratic acts such as hardball with little fear of backlash from their supporters.

Conditional single-issue political entrepreneurship: The impact of education and attitudinal predictors on support for the Finns Party

This study explores support for the populist far-right Finns Party in the 2023 Finnish parliamentary election. In the 2023 election, the Finns Party obtained their largest historical vote share, which led to the party's inclusion in the current coalition government. Utilizing an original, nationally representative survey, we find that Finns Party support can mainly be explained by political entrepreneurship and the attraction of voters holding anti-immigrant sentiment. While we find that other attitudes had some relationship with Finns Party support, the substantive impact of these attitudes is far less substantial than are attitudes towards immigrants. Further, we find that the impact of attitudes towards immigrants and Finns Party vote choice intention is conditional on education level. Attitudes towards immigrants have a more limited impact on Finns Party support for respondents at higher education levels when compared with those at lower levels. The findings hold significance for the broader literature on populist parties, demonstrating that education can significantly diminish the translation of anti-immigration attitudes into support for far-right parties.

Caretaker Conventions in Crisis Times: Dutch Government‐Opposition Dynamics After the Fall of the Government

How does the caretaker status of a government affect party political dynamics in parliament during a crisis? Generally, caretaker governments are not mandated to introduce important policy changes. Yet major crises can demand decisive political action. This article aims to understand the consequences of the caretaker status of the Rutte III government in the Netherlands (after its resignation in January 2021) for government-opposition dynamics during the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. We first analyse party voting behaviour in parliament and then draw on a qualitative text analysis of nine critical parliamentary debates. Surprisingly, we find that differences between mandated and caretaker status have little effect on parliamentary dynamics. Opposition parties with coalition potential are supportive of the government and take on a cooperative tone; opposition parties without coalition potential are not supportive and take on a combative tone and oppose in harsher terms, yet even they barely mention caretaker status. As such, this case provides unique insights into the functioning of caretaker conventions during crises which offer opportunities for new theorising in the undertheorised field of caretaker cabinets and parliaments.

Monumental effects: Confederate monuments in the Post-Reconstruction South

This paper explores the contemporaneous effects of Confederate monuments dedicated in the Post-Reconstruction South. I combine monument, election, and census data to create an election-year panel dataset of former Confederate counties between 1878–1912, then exploit the temporally staggered and geographically distributed dedication of monuments using a generalized difference-in-differences design. I find that monuments caused increases in Democratic Party vote share and decreases in voter turnout, with less robust decreases in Black population share. I find some evidence that more intense monument-building is associated with a decrease in Black lynchings. I also find varying effects based on the era of monument dedication, the intensity of monument-building, and monument characteristics. To address potential mechanisms, I present evidence that monuments were associated with increased use of famous Confederate names for children and show that decreases in voter turnout occurred exclusively in areas with larger Black population shares. Overall, my results suggest monuments promoted a distorted view of Civil War history that primarily persuaded southern whites, but also contributed to Black political suppression. The findings have implications for current debates over Confederate monuments in the United States.

Different shades of leadership A comparative assessment of leaders’ traits in explaining the vote for populist radical right parties

Populist Radical Right parties (PRR) have gained prominence in many European countries, with leadership often considered a key factor in their electoral success. Despite this, limited research has explored how voters’ perceptions of leaders’ traits influence support for PRR parties. This study delves into the impact of perceived leaders’ traits on the vote for PRR parties, using original survey data collected during recent general elections in six European countries (Italy 2022, France 2017, Germany 2017, Austria 2017, UK 2017, Netherlands 2017). Combining descriptive findings and regression analyses, our results reveal three key insights: (1) Voters differentiate among leaders’ traits, with the influence of each trait varying across different party types; (2) the effect of leader’s perceptions on all traits is significant also after taking into account party identification; (3) PRR parties are particularly adept at attracting voters based on positive assessments of leaders’ strength and empathy, more so than other party types.

Lula, the people’s guy: populism, liberal democracy and voting in Brazil

Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork with Workers’ Party supporters in Northeast Brazil, and analysis of electoral campaign materials, I show that left-wing populist discourse can activate aspects of a traditional and apparently illiberal political culture that are compatible with liberal democracy, particularly the principles and ideals of representation, accountability and redistribution of economic growth. By political culture, I refer to the intersection between, on the one hand, cultural aspects such as religion, power relations rooted in history and life trajectories dictated by political and economic constraints, and, on the other hand, political discourses, leaders and policies. Moreover, I show that Workers’ Party voters are not irrational actors, as some scholars of populism argue, but vote for politicians and parties that radically transformed their lives. Using Northeast Brazil as a case study, the paper contributes to debates about the relationship between populism and liberal democracy, showing how the two are not incompatible.

‘Importing’ the personal vote to maximise the party vote? ‘Parachute personalization’ in an intraparty preference electoral system

‘Importing’ the personal vote to maximise the party vote? ‘Parachute personalization’ in an intraparty preference electoral system

The role of negative affect in shaping populist support: Converging field evidence from across the globe.

Support for populism has grown substantially during the past 2 decades, a development that has coincided with a marked increase in the experience of negative affect around the world. We use a multimodal, multimethod empirical approach, with data from a diverse set of geographical and political contexts, to investigate the extent to which the rising electoral demand for populism can be explained by negative affect. We demonstrate that negative affect-measured via (a) self-reported emotions in surveys as well as (b) automated text analyses of Twitter data-predicts individual-level populist attitudes in two global surveys (Studies 1a and 1b), longitudinal changes in populist party vote shares at general elections in Europe (Study 2), district-level Brexit voting in the 2016 U.K. referendum (Study 3), and county-level vote shares for Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections (Studies 4a and 4b). We find that negative emotions-such as fear and anger as well as more often overlooked low-arousal negative emotions like depression and sadness-are predictive of populist beliefs as well as voting and election results at scale. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Challenging by Cueing? An Investigation of Party and Leader Cueing Effects Across Mainstream and Challenger Party Voters

AbstractThe emergence of new challenger parties calls for a reassessment of the party-model of opinion formation by examining different sources of cues across types of voters and the conditions that make cueing more effective. Although new challenger parties may lack sufficient time to develop identification with groups and distinctive party reputations, they may still provide effective cues and reduce their competitive disadvantage in developing affective social identity ties. This article investigates this argument by assessing the impact of party and leader cues on voters from mainstream and challenger parties and examining how expressive partisanship (partisan social identities) and instrumental partisanship (party competence evaluations) moderate these effects. Utilizing data from a survey experiment conducted in Spain during a period of party system restructuring, we find similar cueing effects across party and leader cues when comparing voters of both mainstream and challenger parties. Additionally, contrary to our expectations, we observe that cueing effects for mainstream party voters combine expressive and instrumental reasoning, while those for new challenger party voters are driven by perceptions of party competence reputation only. These findings challenge the prevailing belief that familiarity and time enhance cueing effects. They also deviate from socio-psychological approaches that emphasize the emotional and identity components of partisanship in strengthening cueing effects.

Trust in Governmental Health Communication on Covid-19

Trust in governmental communication is critical to the successful containment of public health crises. However, in highly politicised crises, trust varies as a function of partisanship. This research report examines the relationship between political preferences and trust in governmental health communication during the Covid-19 pandemic in Germany. We pay particular attention to the interaction between (a) different dimensions of vulnerability to the virus and (b) distrust rooted in partisan preferences. Using original data from a representative, four-wave online survey conducted in Germany in 2020 and 2021, we found moderate to low levels of trust in information from the government. Whereas belonging to a vulnerable age group (65+) and fear of infection were significantly associated with trust, identification as a member of a risk group was not. Voters of the right-wing populist AfD were less likely to trust government information. Finally, the association between fear of infection and trust was stronger among AfD voters than among voters of established parties. We conclude that public health campaigns should account for the fact that politicised individuals may not trust communicators in prolonged crises. Messages targeting members of risk groups and partisans of populist parties should make health risks relatable to them as individuals.

The Strength of Figures and Characteristics of Political Party Leaders in the 2024 Simultaneous Regional Head Election in Indonesia

This paper projects that the figures and characteristics of leaders are needed in the power of political parties, especially in contesting simultaneous regional elections in Indonesia. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, Jokowi and Prabowo Subianto, respectively, were two central figures in each party. Analysis of survey data for eight Indonesian elections shows that party leadership and identity are the most important determinants of party votes in legislative and presidential elections. Political parties must correctly place a central figure in their respective parties. The central figure serves as a booster, navigator, and inspiration for party cadres. In addition, figures can also be public reference material to choose one political party, when it is difficult for people to distinguish ideology between one party and another. Nevertheless, the system, traditions, and regeneration process must run as it should. Because only systems, traditions, and regeneration will be the foundation of the future. Political parties as a large organization are certainly not enough to rely on only one individual. There must be a regeneration of leadership within the party. So, if the central figure is no longer in the party, the party can still survive to maintain its existence in society.

Job insecurity and vote for radical parties: A four-country study

Job insecurity is a pervasive phenomenon whose effects on support for different parties have attracted increasing attention in the literature. A growing body of research has assessed the relationship between job insecurity and the success of radical parties in Western democracies, but results are still inconclusive due to the complex nature of this independent variable. This article contributes new evidence to the current debates on this topic by analyzing how both objective labour market status and perceived job insecurity are associated with the vote for radical right and radical left parties. Our findings, based on four original surveys conducted in France, Germany, Greece and Spain, suggest that perceived job insecurity is generally associated with greater support for the radical left, but not for the radical right. In contrast, we find the relationship between objective labour market status and support for radical parties to be more ambiguous (and, in most cases, statistically non-significant).

An Analysis of the Inconsistency of Political Party Vote Outcomes in the 2024 General Election: A Case Study in Semarang City

Electoral inconsistencies in open-list proportional systems and model elections challenge discussion of factor complexity. This research investigates the factors influencing political party votes in the 2024 general election, with a focus on five polling stations in Semarang City. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that drive the consistency and inconsistency of political party vote results in Semarang City. It is known that there are variations in vote acquisition among political parties in the DPR, provincial DPRD, and city DPRD elections, reflecting inconsistencies in voting behavior. This research highlights key factors such as the electoral system, local issues, negative or positive evaluations of party elites, and the practice of clientelism as the basis for why votes shift from one party to another. Finally, it provides insights into the researcher's overview at the polling station level, particularly in Semarang City in the context of the 2024 general election, and suggests the need for further combined research, such as expanding the scope of respondents and increasing the number of respondents.

Russia’s Regional Parliamentary Elections (2021): Cleavage Structure and Trends of Changes

Abstract The article studies the cleavage structures of Russian regions based on the results of elections to regional assemblies in 2021 and analyzes changes compared to previous elections. Factor analysis reveals factors of territorial differences in party voting (electoral cleavages), issue dimensions and sub-dimensions of political space, as well as factors of demographic and socio-economic inter-territorial differentiation. Correlation analysis and multiple regression (OLS) help determine whether electoral cleavages have a political interpretation and a social basis. It demonstrates that the regional elections of 2021 largely reproduced the cleavage structure of 2016, but with some changes. What was common was the almost identical total number of participants and the factors of territorial differences in party voting. The difference was the increase in the number of ‘complete’ electoral cleavages and political subdimensions; the emergence of new actors; expansion of the agenda. It is also noted, that the confrontation between the ‘party of power’ and other participants in domestic politics and the socio-economic sphere constituted the political content of the main electoral cleavage, while the confrontation between market liberals and protectionists in the socio-economic sphere competed for second place with the socio-cultural confrontation. The most common social background of electoral cleavages remained urbanization, which was the main predictor in most cases. At the same time, the importance of economic activity of the population has increased, displacing the factor of demographic characteristics from second place.

Political voting in the United Kingdom 2019 general election and risk of living with obesity in a nationally representative sample

BackgroundLimited evidence from the United States suggests that county/state rates of people with obesity are positively associated with voting for the Republican Party presidential candidate, although this question has not yet been studied at the individual level, and/or outside of the United States, where the health and political systems are very different in other countries.ObjectivesUsing individual level data, assess differences in rates of people with obesity according to political voting in the United Kingdom 2019 general election, and examine whether people living in constituencies won by Members of Parliament (MPs) from the Conservative Party were more likely to be living with obesity than those living in constituencies won by MPs from other parties.MethodsData was obtained by the Ipsos KnowledgePanel where panellists are recruited via a random probability unclustered address-based sampling method. 4000/14,016 panellists were randomly invited to provide data on socio-demographics, health outcomes, voting behaviour and height/weight.Results2668/4000 (67%) of invitees provided data, 95/2668 (3.5%) were not eligible to vote, with the remaining 2573 (96.5%) included. Conservative Party voters were more likely to be living with obesity than those who voted Labour (OR:1.42 95% CI (1.01–1.99)) or Liberal Democrats (1.54 95% CI (1.00–2.37)). Conservative Party voters on average had significantly higher BMI scores than those voting Labour and Liberal Democrats; BMI mean difference 0.88 points (95% CI: 0.16–1.61) between Conservative and Labour voters, and 1.04 points (95% CI: 0.07–2.02) between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats voters. There was no evidence participants living in constituencies won by Conservative MPs were more likely to be living with obesity than constituencies won by other party MPs.ConclusionGovernments and public health agencies may need to focus on the political affiliation of the public when developing strategies to reduce the number of people with obesity.

The differential impact of EU attitudes on voting behaviour in the European parliamentary elections 2019

ABSTRACT EU attitudes are multidimensional and likely to matter differentially for voting across different parties. The 2019 European Parliament (EP) elections offer a unique setting for testing the differential effects of multidimensional EU attitudes, as the election results entailed increased political fragmentation – with notable pro- and anti-EU party groups in the EP gaining strength. This article examines the importance of EU attitudes on electoral choice and zooms in on the influence of specific EU attitudes on party voting in EP elections (‘EU issue voting’). We use original survey data collected around the 2019 EP elections in ten EU member states, which include a fine-grained measurement of EU attitudes. We find evidence for EU issue voting in all countries, albeit not equally structured across countries. EU issue voting matters across all party groups with affective and performance evaluations having the strongest effects.

Политико-экономическая теория популизма

The paper presents a cross-disciplinary theory of populism. The first part of the article considers a definition of populism, the main electorate of populist forces, and the economic triggers of protest votes for populist parties. The second part deals with the different types of political populism, the reasons for their actualization in the 21st century, and the institutional consequences of populist power. The demand for populism comes from fragmented social groups that lost out in the social transformations following the neoliberal revolution of the 1970s and experienced the negative shocks of globalization. The protest electorate is organized around charismatic leaders who find 'scapegoats' in the form of traditional elites, migrants, or minorities and claim to speak for the «nation». Populism can contribute to democratization in its early stages. However, once in power, populists tend to undermine the system of checks and balances, leading to a decline in the quality of institutions and a slowdown in economic growth. The third part of the paper assesses the impact of economic populism. It is concluded that the definitional approaches used in academic literature do not meet the requirement of universality and do not imply a sufficient level of operationalization necessary for empirical research. An alternative approach is proposed that develops the «classical» definition of R. Dornbusch and S. Edwards: economic policy aimed at provoking economic shocks in order to increase the political ratings of the authorities and downplaying socio-economic risks. This approach enables economic populism to transcend the ideological framework of «right-left» economic policy, separate it from the economic policy of political populists, and evaluate the populist policies of mainstream parties. The theory of economic populism converges with the theory of political business cycles, but is not limited to elections and focuses on assessing demand rather than supply.

Intra-party democracy: the intra-party election of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in 2012–2013 and its outcome for the party and overall democracy in Pakistan

ABSTRACT Political parties are considered the basic institutions in a representative democratic system. It engaged the party members through internal and external party activities. The members of established political parties have gained more power to select candidates and party leadership in developed democracies. Pakistan is a developing democratic country; Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf announced an intra-party election in 2012 to elect candidates for the general election 2013 in Pakistan. However, it is a fact that intra-party participation promotes equality and increased vote bank, party membership and turnout in general elections. The main aim of this paper is to examine the consequences of the intra-party election of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf held in 2012. Hence, this study concludes that the membership and vote bank of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has increased, grass-roots members promoted through proper channels and many candidates elected first time as members of parliament, as well as impacted the turnout in general elections of Pakistan. This study is an attempt to examine the impact of intra-party elections on the party membership, vote bank and turnout in general elections held in Pakistan before and after this intra-party election.