Party Labels Research Articles

Using social media to communicate competence, ordinariness, and authenticity in political leadership

Abstract Understanding how political leaders use social media during election campaigns is a growing area of research, with existing literature focussing on single-election examinations of platform usage (Smith 2021). This paper instead conducts a longitudinal examination of political leadership on Twitter/X at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 UK general elections, focussing on the different ways in which leaders portray their competence, ordinariness, and authenticity. In analysing 2,694 posts during the short campaign period by the various leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party, enables the examination of both changing social media behaviours and individual constructions of leadership under the same party label.

Choice Overload in Crowded Primary Elections

The number of candidates running in U.S. primary elections is increasing. Contested primary elections force voters to decide between candidates that share party labels and are ideologically similar. Similar to contexts of non-partisan elections, an increase in the number of candidates should exacerbate the cognitive demand of voting in primary elections. We expect large candidate fields in primaries make voters (1) spend less time looking at each candidate profile, (2) more likely to abstain, (3) more likely to vote based on ballot position, and (4) more likely to feel overwhelmed with the decision. All four of these expectations were preregistered. We test the effect of large candidate fields on voter behavior using a survey experiment ( n = 2000) fielded by YouGov. We find large candidate fields cause respondents to spend less time looking at candidate profiles, to select candidates in the first half of the ballot, and to feel overwhelmed by the decision-making process. In contrast to our expectations, we find large candidate fields make respondents less likely to abstain.

The effects of party labels on vote choice with realistic candidate differentiation

Abstract In this paper we test how much party labels influence vote choices between candidates when voters have access to realistically distributed information about candidate positions and demographics. We do not seek to adjudicate a long-running debate about the role of party labels, but present some nuances on the two archetypal theoretical views on vote choices. We use data from the Representative Audit of Britain (RAB) and the British Elections Study (BES) to generate electoral match-ups between randomly selected Conservative versus Labour candidates, with only half of respondents seeing party labels in addition to candidates’ positions and demographics. For our experiment fielded in October 2021, we find negligible to moderate effects of party labels on vote choices. Our results suggest the information on candidate positions and party labels largely act as substitutes for one another, with only modest changes when party labels are made explicit.

Legislators’ accountability for issue stances: evidence from Australia’s Marriage Law Postal Survey

ABSTRACT For legislators to be held accountable for their stances voters need to sanction unpopular positions. However, because of strong party discipline it is difficult to identify the effects of individual MPs’ stances rather than the stance of their party, because MPs almost always have the same stance as their party. Researchers must therefore study issues which cut across parties or where parties allowed representatives to follow their conscience. Same-sex marriage is one such issue. We use data from the 2017 marriage law survey and subsequent 2019 federal election results to test whether MPs whose referendum positions were out-of-step with their district faced electoral sanction. We find that a standard deviation increase in congruence at the level of the polling place catchment area yields a statistically and substantively insignificant change in vote share of −0.1 percentage points. The results question the degree to which electors control their representatives beyond voting for a party label.

Intra-party determinants of the allocation of legislative speeches

ABSTRACT Parliamentary speech is an important and highly visible feature of legislatures in democracies. Time in parliament is scarce and the allocation of floor time is characterised by largely incompatible preferences between party leaders, aiming to preserve a unified party label, and individual members of parliament (MPs), facing incentives to differentiate themselves and take alternative stances to maximise their personal reelection prospects. This paper investigates the role of MP policy positions in the allocation of parliamentary speeches in different institutional settings. Measuring positions using a novel dataset containing tweets by MPs in three European countries, we find that MPs with positions diverging from the party line get allocated less time on the parliamentary floor when floor time is exclusively controlled by parties, but not when parliamentary rules allow individual access to the floor.

The Effect of Party Labels on Policy Preferences

The Effect of Party Labels on Policy Preferences

Electoral Messiah or Party Label? Quantifying and Investigating Leader-Party Relationships in German Federal Elections 1998–2021

While the personalization of politics thesis has received support when exploring the supply side of politics and the media's coverage of elections and campaigns, the unmediated impact of leaders on vote choice (demand-side behavioral personalization) is debated. Most scholars agree that leaders can and do influence the vote, but the extent, circumstances, and pathways for this to occur, notably distinct from voter assessments of the party, remains contested. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we explore demand-side behavioral personalization in German Federal elections between 1998–2021, with a particular focus on the 2021 contest, where leadership was arguably an especially salient feature of the campaign. We offer a quantification of the phenomenon – first in the form of a vote-leader/party favorite alignment index and second by separating the impact of leader and party popularity on the vote in the 2021 contest, including provision for temporal and reciprocal dynamics. In doing so, we comprehensively examine leader-inclined voting while testing whether the 2021 contest represented a “Crossroads” contest on this dimension. Our results show leaders directly influenced vote choice in 2021, support for leader-inclined voting. Nevertheless, we find little evidence that 2021 marked a “Crossroads,” with few voters aligning their vote solely with their favorite leader, a pattern detected in all German elections between 1998 and 2021. Conspicuously, substantially more voters report aligning their vote with their favorite party. Further, our analysis illustrates that the association between leader popularity and the vote mostly trails the impact of party popularity’s connection with the vote. These results align more with the leaders minimalist school of demand-side behavioral personalization.

Whom to trust and when? Party message perception in multiparty systems

Voters follow their in-group party no matter what they are talking about. But what if reality is more nuanced? In this study, I ask how the perception of party signals works in multiparty systems and whether voters’ trust in the communication medium matters. Thus, I combine party perception research with literature on the influence of trust in different channels to analyse the effects on agreement with a statement and its credibility. Using a survey experiment in Germany, I examine the extent to which the perception of party statements changes when the respective party label and the communication medium change. I find that higher trust in the medium has a positive effect on the perception of the credibility of a party message. Furthermore, a dichotomous in-group vs. out-group divide does not reflect the complexity of a multiparty system. The results have implications for the effects of party communication and voter polarization.

Why vote for an independent? The relevance of negative identity, independent identity, and dealignment in a pro-independent political environment

We know that political parties play a crucial role in the electoral processes of established democracies. However, we know much less about how this role fades away. In this paper, we study the case of Chile, a country that, until a few years ago, was cited as an example of a stable and institutionalized party system. We study how the phenomenon of independent candidates has shaken the national party system. We use two separate strategies to study this phenomenon. First, we measure the marginal effect of the independent label, compared to other party labels, using a conjoint experiment. Our findings show that candidates who are presented as independents have a significant increase in their probability of being chosen. Second, we measure whether this electoral effect relates to party identification. We find that respondents show low animosity towards independent candidates and high animosity towards traditional parties. Furthermore, a majority of the studied population can be classified as negative partisans. These findings suggest that the recent emergence of independent candidates is a result of negative views on parties.

Too much of a good thing? Longer ballots reduce voter participation

ABSTRACT In many democracies, citizens complain that elections do not provide palatable options - none of the candidates are particularly appealing. More candidates imply more choice, and could potentially increase participation. However, too many candidates may overburden voters and thus discourage participation. In this paper, we use election results and experimental data to show that more candidates results in less participation. Effects are apparent even when comparing ballots with two or three candidates and are not assuaged by party labels. Our results suggest that too much choice on election day can be just as bad as too little.

Professionalization of Campaign Communication beyond Communication Forms. An Analysis of Poland’s Political Spots

Previous studies on the professionalization of campaign communication concentrated on forms of communication, ignoring the important question of how election campaigns vary in terms of the content of their election messages. The article intends to partially fill this breach by dealing with the case of Poland’s parliamentary election campaigns in the years 2005–2019. Therefore, it not only describes the main groups of determinants (systemic, competitive, technological, and social) influencing the speed and direction of the process of professionalization in Poland but also attempts to verify the extent to which a party’s electoral messages include certain content that can be treated as manifestations and effects of professionalization. Based on an analysis of audiovisual political advertising during five parliamentary campaigns, the study shows the dominance of valence issues (comparing them to position issues) in spots and the presence of centralized personalization (but not beyond simple party labeling). No linear increase or decrease of trend intensity has been observed regarding the above issues during the five elections. While the overall occurrence of these phenomena remains stable in the campaigns under study (meaning a significant, usually predominant share of party spots in a given year), their intensity varies.

Municipal socialism and the impact of urban decay: the case of Nevers, a mid-sized town in Central France (1971–2020)

Nevers, a medium-sized city of 33,000 inhabitants in the centre of France, has long been regarded as a laboratory for municipal socialism as well as for the union of the left. The socialist party has dominated the local political scene for more than four decades. In 2014, however, a list without any party label put an end to this hegemony by winning the election. The 2020 municipal election confirmed the changeover: the outgoing list won the election, this time in the first round. How to explain this lasting change in a city that has long been a socialist city, in favour of an "apolitical" list that does not benefit from partisan resources? If this change is part of a more general movement, characterized by the decline of the “Parti socialiste” (PS) and the “Parti communiste Français” (PCF), we will show that it is also rooted in the socio-demographic transformations that the city has undergone in recent decades. Such as many medium-sized French cities, Nevers is indeed confronted with a long-standing phenomenon of urban decline, particularly marked in the central districts. The departure of managers and middle-level professions and the arrival of precarious populations has contributed to the transformation of the electorate, while the theme of decline has become one of the main issues of the last elections. This article thus proposes to examine the evolution of the local political field in the light of the social, economic, and demographic transformations of the territory. To do so, several databases are used in order to quantify and map these transformations: the results of municipal elections since 1971 and census data at municipal level since 1968 and at the neighbourhood level (Iris) since 1990. These data will be put into perspective with archives relating to municipal elections from 1971 to 2020 as well as interviews and observations conducted during the 2014 and 2020 campaigns. In conclusion, the urban decline, in the case of Nevers, has contributed to bring down municipal socialism in two ways: (1) by weakening its electoral base, (2) by imposing a political agenda that the socialist municipal team cannot keep, which will be blamed on them in 2014.

Is electoral intraparty competition more intense in urban areas?

This article investigates whether intraparty competition at the election stage – measured by the distribution of preference votes over candidates running under the same party label – is more intense in urban areas. Earlier research on preferential-list PR systems shows that urban voters are less inclined to cast preference votes. Yet we do not know how these differences at the individual voter level translate to the degree of intraparty competition at the aggregate list level. We hypothesize that urban areas provide a more open electoral market and lead to lower levels of vote concentration on party lists. We leverage a novel dataset on preference voting in three Belgian elections by aggregating 461,049 preference vote scores for candidates-in-cantons to a dataset of intraparty competition scores for 3214 lists-in-cantons. The hierarchical models show that intra-party competition is impacted by the interactive effects of both the urban character of electoral competition and the presence of prominent office-holders. While rural contexts lead to greater vote concentration in presence of a larger number of office-holders, urban contexts often result in lower vote concentration. Our study provides novel insights into the contextual determinants of intraparty competition and personalization.

Can People Use Party Cues to Assess Policymaker Positions? Ecological Rationality and Political Heuristics

Scholars disagree about the ability of people to use heuristics to make political judgments, with some arguing that heuristics are easy-to-use pieces of information and others arguing that applying heuristics may require some degree of political expertise. We argue that these debates have been somewhat intractable because most prior work has not considered the ecological rationality of political judgments—that is, the potential for cues to yield accurate judgments about a clearly defined reference class. In this paper, we present the results of two studies exploring whether people use party labels to make judgments about a random sample of U.S. Representatives’ voting behaviors. We find that respondents consistently performed worse in guessing U.S. Representatives’ votes than if they had correctly used a simple partisan heuristic. There is also some evidence that people performed worse with the presence of more nonparty cues. Attention to politics had a positive relationship with accuracy in both studies, although the relationship was modest. The results suggest that party cues may be more difficult to apply than some research has suggested.

Growing and distinct: The Unaffiliated voter as unmoored voter

AbstractObjectiveWe examine the size, characteristics, and attitudes of Unaffiliated party registrants as they compare to registrants from the two major parties.MethodsWe analyze voter registration files, voter history files, and public opinion data from North Carolina.ResultsUnaffiliated registrants are not simply shadow partisans but, on average, are distinct from two major parties in terms of demographics, political behavior, and political attitudes.ConclusionVoters who eschew party labels are best understood as unmoored voters—often hovering close to their ideological docks but with no institutional constraint to keep them from drifting as the political tides shift.

Dyadic representation in parliamentary democracy in Japan

AbstractThis study evaluates dyadic representation, that is, the link between the policy preferences of the constituencies and their representatives in the Japanese Lower House (LH). More specifically, this study examines how the within-party variation in policy positions among party candidates corresponds with that across their districts. By examining a series of candidate surveys conducted between 2003 and 2012 as well as the local employment structure, this study maps the association between the policy preferences of constituencies and those of their district candidates for two major parties. Specifically, candidates were found to take more rural-oriented positions on economic policies when running in districts with rural employment structures, while there remained a clear difference between parties. Moreover, this study demonstrates that constituencies accord more votes to candidates who better represent their preferences, strengthening the link by electing those who fulfill the responsibility beyond their party label.

Old party, new tricks: candidates, parties, and LDP dominance in Japan

AbstractIn 2009, after decades of single party rule under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan had its first taste of a real alteration of power. However, just 3 years later, the LDP regained control of government with no significant challenger in sight. Historically, LDP dominance is a common tale, but its resurgence in recent years poses a significant puzzle in Japanese politics. What exactly has contributed to the LDP's return to power? In the years that have passed, the LDP's strength has come from a combination of cash, clientelistic networks, and strong candidates, but recent research has found that Japanese politics has become more programmatic and party-focused. While LDP dominance since its return to power in 2012 can be attributed in part to its candidates, I find that the appeal of the party label has played a large role in securing the LDP's large majorities.

Working as a team: Do legislators coordinate their geographic representation efforts in party-centred environments?

Why do legislators engage in geographic representation in party-centred electoral systems, where they face weak re-election incentives to cultivate a personal vote? Existing research offers cross-pressuring incentive structures and intrinsic localism motivations as individual-level factors to explain this puzzle. In this article, we propose an alternative argument based on the principle of collective action within party-internal structures of labour division. We argue that legislators elected in the same multi-member district and under the same party label (party delegations) share collective vote-seeking incentives to collaborate with each other in order to strike a balance between the collective benefits and individual costs of constituency-oriented activities. Results from a comparative study of written parliamentary questions in Germany and Spain support our argument. Specifically, the study suggests that individual localism attributes interact with the team composition of party delegations to shape constituency-orientated behaviour.

Delving into the divide: how ideological differences fuel out-party hostility in a multi-party context

AbstractThis study investigates to what extent affective polarization, and more specifically hostility towards opposing party supporters, finds its roots in ideological differences. We look into the way out-groups are constructed when there are more than two political parties, and at the role of ideology in this process. Hereby we position ourselves in the discussion between those who argue that affective polarization finds its root more strongly in group attachments vs. those who argue that it is mostly rooted in ideological differences. We conduct our study in the context of the highly fragmented multi-party system of Belgium which enables us to analytically disentangle party label cues from ideological distance. Our findings demonstrate that affective polarization is largely rooted in ideological differences between party electorates in Belgium. Additionally, we find that this particularly holds for citizens who are more ideologically invested, namely those with higher political interest and more extreme ideological views.

Mavericks or Loyalists? Popular Ballot Jumpers and Party Discipline in the Flexible-List PR Context

Preference voting threatens the power of party leaders in PR contexts to enforce party unity and pursue policy by encouraging candidates to groom personal reputations. This study posits that party leadership might be able to enforce party discipline through other means at their disposal even as their control over candidates’ election ranks weakens. These include access to the party label and distribution of senior legislative- and party positions. Using original data from the Czech flexible-list PR context covering the period between 1996 and 2021, this study shows that the MPs who are elected thanks to preference voting are no more likely than their colleagues to individualize their legislative behavior or cast a dissenting roll-call vote. What is more, these popular MPs face a more restricted access to reelection and senior positions that come with agenda-setting power and exposure. This evidence suggests that political parties take active steps to limit the autonomy of the MPs who owe their positions to voters.