Party Leadership Election Research Articles

Trusting Truss: Conservative MPs’ Voting Preferences in the (First) British Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2022

ABSTRACT This paper identifies the candidate preferences of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot and the membership ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2022. We code each parliamentarians’ candidate preference within a wider dataset on the parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) and test a range of hypotheses covering the following: a). personal factors relating to gender, sexuality, ethnicity and education b). political factors, relating to constituency marginality and type, as well as prior support for Johnson, and c). ideological factors, covering for example, attitudes towards Brexit, cultural debates, levelling up, economic liberalism, net zero and Covid restrictions. Our research findings demonstrate that despite common media narratives at the time of the party leadership election, variables capturing loyalty or opposition to Johnson did not structure patterns of support for candidates in either round. A parliamentarian's position on levelling up, as well as the UK's membership of, and relationship with, the European Union (based on whether they were remainers, leavers, or a member of the European Research Group) were more important in structuring support. However broader measures of ideology, as evidenced through the membership of extra-parliamentary groups, was found not to be important.

Selecting Sunak: Conservative MPs’ Nomination Preferences in the (Second) British Conservative Party Leadership Election

Abstract This article utilises an original dataset covering all members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to analyse the basis of support for Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt in the October 2022 British Conservative Party leadership election. The significance of our findings is that they form the basis for a new understanding of how conservatism in the UK is changing post-Brexit. Our political variables include constituency majority size, red wall status, constituency support for leave, an MP’s position in the June 2022 vote of confidence in Johnson’s leadership of the Conservative Party, ministerial status and rebellion rates on key legislation. Our ideological variables include EU referendum position and membership of the European Research Group and the Conservative Environment Network, along with whether MPs are classed as socially liberal, socially conservative or pro-levelling up. We find that candidates appealed to different, often rival, sections of the Conservative Party. In line with previous studies of this nature, social liberalism still represents a key dividing line within the party, and the European dimension of intra-party conflict has remained significant in light of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

Those who Wear the Crown Wield the Knife: the Brutality of Recent Takeover Reshuffles

AbstractRecent ‘takeover’ Prime Ministers have tended to conduct relatively brutal Cabinet reshuffles immediately after taking office. Liz Truss dismissed and moved large numbers of ministers after becoming Prime Minister in September 2022, and Rishi Sunak did the same after succeeding Truss in October 2022. This article locates the tendency towards brutalism in the broader context of British Cabinet reshuffles. It compares the scale of takeover reshuffles with other types of reshuffles and demonstrates how incoming takeover Prime Ministers in the twenty‐first century have reconstructed their Cabinets more extensively than their predecessors. The article argues that the use of all‐member ballots in party leadership elections has been a key driver of brutalism, and it further identifies several reasons why future Prime Ministers might want to resist the tendency.

What’s on a Party Member’s Mind? Voting Motives in Competitive Party Leadership Elections

ABSTRACT Procedures of party leadership selection have attracted considerable scholarly attention in recent years, but voting motives of party members in leadership elections have not been fully studied yet. This paper presents a new model of voting in party leadership elections that is inspired by previous models that were mostly tailored to more exclusive selectorates (such as the parliamentary party). We adopt an inductive research strategy that is based on an open question in member surveys that were held on the occasion of three Belgian party leadership elections. As a result, we obtain a comprehensive model with eight different vote motivations: policy positions, electability, competence, perceptions of personality traits, socio-demographic characteristics, personal relationships, party-organisational reasons and negative voting. Our findings also show that the kinds of motivations that are put forward by members are dependent upon the number of contenders.

Will Truss's Time end in Failure? Assessing the Prospects of the latest ‘Takeover’ Prime Minister

AbstractIn September 2022, Elizabeth Truss became the third Prime Minister in a row to take office directly as a result of a party leadership election. My study of takeovers between 1916 and 2016 found they have a shorter time in office than those who are elected, because they inherit deep crisis and divided parties. They also face the dilemma of whether, and when, to call a general election.

UK Conservative Party's Political Strategists in 2019 Election Campaigns

In this article, the author examines the leading political strategists and spin doctors of the Conservative Party in the context of their involvement in the 2019 United Kingdom election campaigns. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the political strategists’ contribution in Boris Johnson’s Tory leadership election victory and in the United Kingdom general election Conservative triumph. The focus of the article is on two main strategist groups – the Australian pool and the British pool. The main face of Australians was Lynton Crosby, of British - Dominic Cummings. The article considers the role both strategist groups’ main faces in the Conservative Party leadership election campaign and United Kingdom general election campaign, including Lynton Crosby, Dominic Cummings, Mark Fullbrook, Isaac Levido, Michael Brooks, Edward Lister, and Lee Cain. The author demonstrates that in 2019, the Conservative Party had the strongest Political Strategists Corps in its recent history. They ensured that the Tories retained their position as the main political force in the UK. The main sources of this article are publications in the British and Australian media, official Conservative Party documents, including the 2019 general election campaign manifestos, original writings of British politicians and policy-makers, especially those of Boris Johnson, and interviews with both British and Australian political analysts.

Correction to: The Labour Party leadership election: The Stark model and the selection of Keir Starmer

The article “The Labour Party leadership election: The Stark model and the selection of Keir Starmer”, written by Timothy Heppell was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on February, 24, 2021 with open access. With the author(s)’ decision to step back from Open Choice, the copyright of the article changed on May 10, 2021 to © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021 and the article is forthwith distributed under the terms of copyright.

Selecting Starmer: The Nomination Preferences of Labour Parliamentarians in the 2020 Labour Party Leadership Election

ABSTRACT This article tests the nomination preferences of Labour parliamentarians in their 2020 leadership election against a range of individual, constituency and party-political based variables. From this our article produces the following three central findings. First, that the appeal of both Long-Bailey and Thornberry was narrow, and that they were competing for the support of Labour parliamentarians aligned to the Corbynista vote. Second, that the appeal of both Nandy and Phillips was based around an anti-Corbynista vote, with Nandy drawing support from parliamentarians from leave-voting constituencies. Third, that the unifying pitch of the Starmer candidature carries some validity: his nomination base was characterised by its breadth rather than any specific factional appeal.

The Labour Party leadership election: The Stark model and the selection of Keir Starmer.

This article considers the selection of Keir Starmer as the new Leader of the Labour Party within the context of the Stark model for explaining leadership election outcomes. The article seeks to achieve three objectives. First, to provide an overview of the nomination stages and the candidates who contested the Labour Party leadership election. Second, to provide an analysis of the underlying academic assumptions of the Stark model on leadership selection and to assess its value as an explanatory model. Third, to use opinion-polling evidence to consider the selection of Starmer in relation to the criteria of the Stark model—i.e. that party leadership (s)electorates are influenced by the following hierarchy of strategic goals: acceptability or select the candidate most likely to unify the party; electability or select the candidate most likely to expand the vote base of the party; and competence or select the candidate most likely to be able to implement their policy objectives.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2019: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

Abstract This article provides an empirical analysis of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2019. We construct a dataset for the parliamentary Conservative Party and then put forward hypotheses that will consider the possible Eurosceptic, party political, economic and/or ideological motivations for the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot. Our findings demonstrate that support for Johnson and Hunt was structured around age and voting behaviour in the European Union (EU) membership referendum, with support for Gove drawn from those who voted for May’s Withdrawal Agreement in the first meaningful vote. Other factors, such as the economic impact of Brexit on constituencies and social liberalism, were not found to be statistically significant.

Does It Pay Off? The Effects of Party Leadership Elections on Parties’ Trustworthiness and Appeal to Voters

In the last few decades, political parties in several Western countries have opened up the process of leadership selection to all party members. So far, research has mainly focused on the drivers of this development, taking into account both internal factors (reducing power of middle-level party elites) and external factors (increasing the party’s attractiveness). Only few studies have tested the effects of these external arguments. In this study, we investigate whether parties that select their leader inclusively (1) exhibit higher levels of trustworthiness, and are more appealing to (2) voters and (3) potential members. Based on the procedural fairness argument, we expect a positive effect of inclusive procedures. We conduct a vignette experiment with fictional parties and find that inclusive selection procedures do not strengthen citizens’ perceptions of trustworthiness. Moreover, citizens are not more willing to vote or join parties with inclusive selection procedures.

Theresa May and the Conservative Party leadership confidence motion of 2018: analysing the voting behaviour of Conservative Parliamentarians

This article provides the first systematic academic appraisal of the confidence motion against the Conservative Party leadership of Theresa May in late 2018. We construct a detailed dataset of the parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP), and then test the significance of a range of hypotheses about how Conservative parliamentarians voted in the confidence motion. Our findings demonstrate how the original remain or leave divide on continued membership of the European Union (EU) was not statistically significant—i.e. our findings demonstrate that whether Conservative parliamentarians voted remain or leave themselves, or whether they held remain or constituencies, did not have an impact upon their vote in the confidence motion. Our findings demonstrate that the lack of confidence in May was dependent upon whether Conservative parliamentarians supported her Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and whether they were members of the European Research Group (ERG). Our research findings contribute to existing academic debates as they show that the drivers of the vote in the confidence motion of 2018 differed from the drivers of the vote in previous Conservative Party leadership elections—i.e. unlike previous contests non-ideological considerations were not statistically significant in terms of explaining voting behaviour.

Party Leadership Elections in the UK

Party Leadership Elections in the UK

The \u2018Corbyn Phenomenon\u2019: Media Representations of Authentic Leadership and the Discourse of Ethics Versus Effectiveness

Whilst the academic literature on leadership has identified authenticity as an important leadership attribute, few studies have examined how authentic leadership is evaluated in naturally occurring discourse. This article explores how authentic leadership was characterised and evaluated in the discourse of the British press during the 2015 Labour Party leadership election—won, against the odds, by veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. Using membership categorisation analysis, we show that the media discourse about authentic leadership was both ambiguous and ambivalent. In their representation of authentic leadership, we found that a discourse of ‘ethical’ leadership was played out in tension with a discourse of ‘effective’ leadership. We propose that this complex and contradictory discursive landscape is also relevant in business contexts where ‘ethical’ leaders are subjected to praise for their virtues but also criticism for their ineffectiveness. Future research could usefully study how ‘ethical’ leaders in different settings can be subject to competing evaluations when their ethical values are discursively contrasted to expectations concerning what it takes to be an ‘effective’ leader.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2016: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

This article provides the first systematic examination of the voting motivations of Conservative MPs in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2016. We identify the voting behaviour of each Conservative parliamentarian as part of a unique data set that we use to test, through the use of multivariate analysis, a series of hypotheses based around social background variables (i.e. gender and education); political variables (i.e. parliamentary experience, electoral marginality, the electoral threat posed by UKIP and ministerial status); and ideological variables (i.e. attitudes towards same-sex marriage and Brexit). Our findings demonstrate that ideology did matter in terms of voting. Attitudes towards Brexit were central to the appeals of both Theresa May (to Remainers) and Andrea Leadsom (to Leavers). We also demonstrate that in terms of support for Leadsom, Brexit was not the only significant driver, as opinion on same-sex marriage, year of entry and ministerial status also influenced voting behaviour.

The influence of legislators’ endorsements in party leadership elections

In the 2010 election for the post of leader of the British Labour party, almost all members of parliament endorsed one of five leadership candidates. I investigate the effect of these endorsements on the votes cast for candidates in each Westminster constituency. I find that an MP’s endorsement caused an average increase of 7.5 percentage points in the vote share of the endorsed candidate in that MP’s constituency.

Politics and Parenthood: An Examination of UK Party Leadership Elections

As women increasingly campaign for the highest political offices, this original content analysis study examines the extent to which gender and parenthood play a role in political leadership using British political party leadership elections as a case study. Competing hypotheses from the limited literature on politics and parenthood are examined. The article finds that family mentions have varied over time and contrary to some gender literature men’s family was at times of greater interest than women’s. Evidence is found for the politicisation of motherhood and a possible ‘maternal mandate’. In parallel, fatherhood was of increasing interest and the rise of the modern man can be seen. Yet, male candidates appear to have an ‘opt-out clause’ in any politicisation of fatherhood. Further questions about politics and parenthood begged by this article open future research avenues.

Conservative ministers in the Coalition government of 2010–15: evidence of bias in the ministerial selections of David Cameron?

ABSTRACTThe article uses a data set of the 2010–15 Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to test a series of hypotheses in order to determine whether those selected for ministerial office during the coalition era were representative of the PCP as a whole. The findings show no significant associations or bias by Cameron in terms of age, schooling, regional base, morality, voting for Cameron in the Conservative Party leadership election and, most significantly, gender. Significant associations or bias were evident in terms of Cameron’s patronage with regard to university education and electoral marginality. The findings demonstrate that any critique of current Conservative ministers based on their supposed elitism stems from the institutional and structural biases within the Conservative Party at candidate selection level, and cannot be attributed to bias on behalf of Cameron.

‘The Longest Suicide Vote in History’: The Labour Party Leadership Election of 2015

The Labour leadership contest of 2015 resulted in the election of the veteran Left-wing backbencher, Jeremy Corbyn, who clearly defeated the early favourite, Andy Burnham. Yet Corbyn enjoyed very little support among Labour MPs, and his victory plunged the PLP into turmoil, particularly as he was widely viewed as incapable of leading the Party to victory in the 2020 general election. Given that, much of the established academic literature on Party leadership contests emphasises the ability to foster unity, and thereby render a party electable, as two of the key criteria for electing a new leader, coupled with overall competence, important questions are raised about how and why the Labour Party chose someone to lead them who clearly does not meet these criteria. We will argue that whilst these are the natural priorities of MPs when electing a new leader, in Corbyn’s case, much of the extra-parliamentary Labour Party was more concerned about ideological conviction and purity of principles, regardless of how far these diverged from public opinion. This was especially true of those who signed-up to the Labour Party following the 2015 general election defeat. Indeed, many of these only did so after Corbyn had become a candidate. This clearly suggests a serious tension between maximising intra-party democracy and ensuring the electability of the parliamentary party itself.

2010 Labour Party Leadership Election

Britain is an established parliamentary democracy traditionally dominated by two political parties: Labour and Conservative. General election defeats usually prompt leadership challenges by candidates promising electoral success at the next election. 2010 was no exception with many Labour Members of Parliament offering themselves as the solution to fix the party’s electoral problems. Ed Miliband emerged as the victor in the Labour leadership contest, beating his elder brother alongside his other rivals. His success was dependent on his self portrayal as a left-wing candidate who had learned the relevant lessons from the mistakes encountered under Tony Blair’s New Labour. His vision of a new generation of political leader embracing long held cherished Labour values was a success. The leadership election demonstrated that internal divisions persisted within the Labour Party despite the election of a new leader