Partisan Coalitions Research Articles

An untapped coalition: partisanship and political participation among people with disabilities

ABSTRACT The disability politics literature has found that having a disability significantly decreases an individual’s voting propensity. Using data from the 2020 American National Election Study, the present paper explores several mechanisms driving such depressed levels of voter turnout. Considering the central role of partisanship in American political behavior, we investigate the partisan ties, ideological preferences, and vote choice of individuals reporting a disability. We also consider their overall experiences with the political system, with particular emphasis on political knowledge, political interest, and attitudes towards voting. Data suggest that those reporting a disability do not differ significantly from those not reporting a disability in terms of party affiliation, ideological orientation, and vote choice. Although individuals with disabilities exhibited high levels of political interest in 2020, they were no more or less likely to participate in alternative forms of political engagement, such as activism online. One noteworthy finding demonstrated in our analyses is that those with disabilities largely tend to view voting as a choice, rather than a duty. Our conclusion places these findings into the context of partisan coalition building and voter mobilization, providing several suggestions for how disability scholars might continue to advance understanding of this large, growing voting bloc.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in a polarized political system: Lessons from the 2020 election

Given the deep polarization of the American political system in recent decades, was the 2020 presidential election an extension of the pre-existing partisan coalitions or did the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic consequences have a significant impact on the outcome? Using a national probability sample provided by AmeriSpeak and voter verification provided by Catalist, we construct a structural equation model to examine the relative influence of age, race, gender, education, religious fundamentalism, ideological partisanship, affective partisanship, and measures of Covid-19 experiences and understanding to predict the 2020 vote. We re-construct the partisan polarization landscape to examine the role of politically interested non-partisans in the center of the ideological spectrum and examine their ability to select candidates in response of specific issues. The Covid-19 pandemic had a significant marginal impact on the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Religious Freedom in the City Pool: Gender Segregation, Partisanship, and the Construction of Symbolic Boundaries

AbstractLow political support for religious minority groups in the United States is often explained as a matter of social distance or unfamiliarity between religious traditions. Observable differences between beliefs and behaviors of religious minority groups and the cultural mainstream are thought to demarcate group boundaries. However, little scholarship has examined why some practices become symbolic boundaries that reduce support for religious accommodation in public policy, while nearly identical practices are tolerated. We hypothesize that politics is an important component of the process by which some religious practices are transformed into demarcations between “us” and “them.” We conduct an original survey experiment in which people are exposed to an identical policy demand—women-only swim times at a local public pool—attributed to three different religious denominations (Muslim, Jewish, and Pentecostal). We find that people are less supportive of women-only swim times when the requesting religion is not a part of their partisan coalition.

Conceptualizing the Effects of Polarization for US Foreign Policy Behavior in International Negotiations: Revisiting the Two-Level Game

AbstractPolarization has been a prevalent phenomenon in US politics, yet its foreign policy implications remain understudied. A common assumption is that polarization undermines the utilization of United States’ material power via a coherent grand strategy. In this article, I argue that polarization does not make the United States incapable of enacting a foreign policy per se but instead affects US foreign policy conduct, power, and strategy toward international negotiations. The effects of domestic polarization for US foreign policy behavior in international negotiations are best understood via an advanced application of the “two-level game” model, which conceptualizes a state's domestic politics as a determinant factor for the executive branch's approach toward foreign affairs. I identify three effects polarization has on US foreign policy: (1) a sorting effect, which produces homogenous partisan coalitions with divergent foreign policy preferences and inclines the executive to pursue an obstinate international negotiation conduct; (2) a partisan conflict effect, which weakens Congress as a veto player and reduces United States’ bargaining power; and, finally, (3) an institutional corrosion effect, which inclines the executive branch to manipulate domestic support and to politicize international negotiations at home. In sum, domestic polarization increases the opportunity costs for US foreign policy toward international negotiations and contributes to global instability. Anecdotal evidence from US foreign policy over the last decade offers support for these effects, but further empirical research is needed to better understand when they are most impactful and in which combination these effects appear.

Affective Polarization: Over Time, Through the Generations, and During the Lifespan

The continual rise of affective polarization in the United States harms trust in democratic institutions. Scholars cite processes of ideological and social sorting of the partisan coalitions in the electorate as contributing to the rise of affective polarization, but how do these processes relate to one another? Most scholarship implicitly assumes period effects—that people change their feelings toward the parties uniformly and contemporaneously as they sort. However, it is also possible that sorting and affective polarization link with one another as a function of age or cohort effects. In this paper, I estimate age, period and cohort effects on affective polarization, partisan strength, and ideological sorting. I find that affective polarization increases over time, but also as people age. Age-related increases in affective polarization occur as a function of increases in partisan strength, and for Republicans, social sorting. Meanwhile, sorting only partially explains period effects. These effects combine such that each cohort enters the electorate more affectively polarized than the last.

Can't buy me votes? Campaign spending and the outcome of direct democratic votes

Recent American studies that investigate the influence of money on the outcome of direct democratic votes find campaign spending effective for both supporters and challengers. Taking advantage of Switzerland’s far-reaching experience with direct legislation, this article tests the role of money in a ‘harder’ context, where government plays an active role in direct democratic processes. It assesses the impact of campaign spending on 323 federal votes, and on a subset of 60 votes, offering finer-grained cantonal-level data. On the one hand, the results highlight the crucial role of the partisan coalition supporting the government for the outcome of votes; on the other hand, campaign spending is effective for both government and challenger camps, yet more so for the latter. Furthermore, the effects of government camp spending vary depending on the expected vote outcome and the difference in spending between both camps.

Partisanship in Initial State Responses to the COVID‐19 Pandemic

In this article, we review state policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic and argue that they were driven primarily by partisan politics. Preliminary evidence suggests that the party affiliation of a state's Governor was the most important factor shaping the nature and timing of the response. In particular, we find that Republican Governors were less likely than their Democratic counterparts to issue stay‐at‐home orders and, when they did issue them, were slower to do so. This finding is consistent with a recent trend in U.S. health policy toward vertical partisan coalitions in which state leaders align their policies with national party leaders even when those decisions may not be in the best interest of their states or supported by a majority of their constituents. In this case, however, since President Trump's response to the outbreak has been inconsistent, many Republican Governors appear to be aligning their COVID‐19 responses with the national party's perceived rhetorical and electoral enhancing goals of personal freedom and economic growth/recovery, rather than with President.

Agendas de género en las campañas presidenciales de 2018 en México

This article analyzes gender related issues posed by three presidential candidates nominated by partisan coalitions in the 2018 elections. The coalition’s electoral platforms were reviewed and, drawing from journalistic information, a data base was constructed in which all of Lopez Obrador’s, Meade’s and Anaya’s events during their campaigns were registered. The main conclusion is that, in their agendas, the topics of gender from a distributive approach that reinforces traditional roles for women are predominant. In a parallel way, various feminist and lgbt+ collectives presented agendas for equality, which have been as a consequence represented by alternative communities.

Sobreviviendo a reformas, impopularidad y casos de corrupción: el presidencialismo de coalición del Brasil de Temer

El año 2017 demostró la elevada capacidad del presidente brasileño para aprobar su agenda de gobierno y conformar un apoyo sólido y mayoritario en el Congreso Nacional. A pesar de enfrentar una coyuntura económica y social desfavorable, junto con una bajísima popularidad, Michel Temer aprobó una profunda reforma laboral y rechazó dos denuncias de corrupción en el Legislativo. Por medio de la distribución de ministerios a partidos aliados y la conformación de una coalición partidista ideológicamente homogénea, el presidente Temer demostró la gobernabilidad del presidencialismo de coalición brasileño. El cambio del statu quo, afectando incluso a la política exterior, ejemplificó el dominio del presidente en la política brasileña, principalmente en la capacidad para movilizar recursos en la delicada tarea de organizar una coalición partidaria de elevada fragmentación.

Agendas de género en las campañas presidenciales de 2018 en México

This article analyzes gender related issues posed by three presidential candidates nominated by partisan coalitions in the 2018 elections. The coalition’s electoral platforms were reviewed and, drawing from journalistic information, a data base was constructed in which all of Lopez Obrador’s, Meade’s and Anaya’s events during their campaigns were registered. The main conclusion is that, in their agendas, the topics of gender from a distributive approach that reinforces traditional roles for women are predominant. In a parallel way, various feminist and lgbt+ collectives presented agendas for equality, which have been as a consequence represented by alternative communities.

Change and Continuity in the Role of State Attorneys General in the Obama and Trump Administrations

During the Trump Administration, state attorneys general (AGs) have become entrenched as integral policymaking actors in the United States. Their expanding policymaking role fits broader patterns of polarized politics, as partisan coalitions of AGs are increasingly willing to sue the federal government, a trend that gathered steam in the Obama Administration and has reached a crescendo in Trump’s first year. However, state AGs do cooperate, particularly in corporate litigation to address allegedly widespread, illegal behavior. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of multi-state lawsuits and Supreme Court amicus briefs, we identify continuity and change in how AGs have employed their powers, by examining their activities during the first year of the Trump presidency and placing these activities in the context of previous administrations. This analysis is accompanied by a pair of case studies, one on conflictual AG environmental litigation and another on bipartisan efforts to address the opioid epidemic. Both demonstrate AG’s prominent policymaking power, a power unlikely to abate anytime soon.

Trump and the Affordable Care Act: Congressional Repeal Efforts, Executive Federalism, and Program Durability

This article assesses the politics and partial success of Congress in repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), known as Obamacare, with particular attention to lobbying by governors. Most Republican governors behaved as members of a vertical partisan coalition supporting the national party rather than defending insurance coverage in their states. But the activities of a significant minority of these governors impeded ACA retrenchment. We also examine the role of executive federalism, highlighting how state responses to Trump administrative initiatives affected ACA durability. The Trump administration drew on waivers, executive orders, funding decisions, administrative rules, the social media, and other executive branch tools to sabotage the health insurance exchanges and undercut Medicaid. As of 2018, the Trump administration actions had contributed to some erosion in exchange coverage, but far less than many had anticipated. The degree to which Medicaid waivers encouraged by the Trump administration will precipitate enrollment declines in that program remains to be seen.

Parties as an organizational force on nonpartisan city councils

Canonical models of urban politics have often treated political parties as clientelistic patrons rather than ideological entities. I argue that parties play an important role in organizing local legislatures at the microlevel. I examine the influence of political parties in local legislatures by systematically analyzing elected officials’ behavior. By examining roll call votes cast by city council members in San Diego, I conclude that partisan coalitions play an important role in structuring local politics. My results suggest that elite party membership predicts legislative behavior—even in nonpartisan legislatures—which may help explain why partisan versus nonpartisan elections do not produce divergent policy outcomes at the macrolevel.

Immigration Politics and Partisan Realignment: California, Texas, and the 1994 Election

AbstractThis article demonstrates how the party identification of various demographic groups in California and Texas changed in response to the gubernatorial campaigns of Pete Wilson and George W. Bush. Using aggregated time series of Field Poll, Texas Poll, and Gallup data, difference-in-differences results show that Wilson's embrace of Proposition 187 was followed by significant Hispanic movement toward the Democratic Party in California. Time series analysis substantiates that this action led to a long-term 7.1 percentage point Democratic shift among California's Hispanics. This suggests that state-level actors can influence partisan coalitions in their state, beyond what would be expected from national-level factors.

Parties under Stress: Using a Linkage Decay Framework to Analyze the Chilean Party System

Conventional wisdom suggests Chile's party system is highly institutionalized. However, recent declines in participation and partisanship have begun to raise questions about this veneer of stability. This article assesses the current state of the Chilean party system, analyzing its ability to provide linkage. We specify a theoretical framework for identifying challenges to linkage and constraints on necessary adaptation. We then use this framework to evaluate linkage in the contemporary Chilean system, emphasizing how its representational profile has changed since the democratic transition. The analysis suggests the two partisan coalitions no longer present clear policy alternatives and programmatic representation increasingly depends on policy responsiveness and relics of old ideological divides. Significant institutional constraints impede parties’ ability to incorporate demands from emerging social groups, and clientelism remains a complementary but not core linkage mechanism. This evidence indicates that while representation in Chile has not yet failed, the system contains serious vulnerabilities.

Playing the Neoliberal Game: Why Community Leaders Left Party Politics to Partisan Activists

Community leaders increasingly avoid grassroots parties, a tendency that polarizes politics by leaving ideological activists in control. This article synthesizes urban and civil society theory to develop possible explanations, evaluating them via a mixed-methods community study, and concludes that leaders avoid politics because it stigmatizes them within their politically structured competition, or game, for community esteem. Postwar federalism enhanced locals’ control by sheltering firms from outside acquisitions and transferring discretionary grants to local bodies, thus creating an arena that privileged “fighters” who engaged publicly by forming rigid, oppositional factions. Neoliberal reforms made leaders dependent on mobile firms and competitive funding streams, conditions that elevate “partners” who avoid conflict and form flexible place-marketing coalitions to community prominence. Fighters view politics as consistent with their community personae, whereas partners fear that political divisiveness will undermine their community esteem and are unable to mobilize partisan coalitions.

Court Curbing via Attempt to Amend the Constitution: An Update of Congressional Attacks on the Supreme Court from 1955–1984

This study investigates the validity of the common practice of differentiating between “high” and “low frequency” periods of congressional attacks on the Supreme Court. In-depth examination of the Congressional Record from 1955–1984 reveals 1,497 previously uncounted constitutional amendment attacks. Rather than starting and stopping, the never-ending court curbing efforts of this era evolved in four phases, differentiated by shifts in an unexamined dimension—leadership of attacks. This suggests that modern attacks may be a way for partisan and regional coalition managers to “signal” others (including those outside the Court) in efforts to maintain, build, or assert their party's dominance. Court curbing may therefore play a greater role than realized in party system development, making congressional attacks an overlooked “mechanism” through which coalitional change may be both opposed and wrought.

Keeping the Outliers in Line? Judicial Review of State Laws by the U.S. Supreme Court

ObjectiveProponents of the “regime politics” approach argue that the U.S. Supreme Court tends to promote the interests of the dominant partisan coalition even while engaging in seemingly countermajoritarian behavior. These scholars suggest that the Court's invalidation of state laws is used to enforce a national consensus against outlier states. We argue this claim does not withstand empirical analysis.MethodWe employ logistic regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between the invalidation of state laws by the Court and the ideological distance between the sitting national government and the state government that enacted the law.ResultsOur analysis fails to find support for the regime enforcement hypothesis; in fact, we find evidence of a negative relationship between ideological distance and invalidation.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that regime politics scholars have underestimated the Court's countermajoritarian role in reviewing state legislation.

Partisan Preferences and Skill Formation Policies: New Evidence from Turkey and Argentina

Summary Following a switch to export-oriented industrialization, reorganization of production in the automobile industry demanded a new worker profile in developing economies like Turkey and Argentina. Yet, the process of transforming worker skills unfolded differently across industrial clusters. The paper explains this variation by highlighting formal political dynamics at the sub-national level. It finds that when local politicians have limited fiscal capacities, they are compelled to build partisan coalitions to advance industrial reform policies. Evidence from Bursa (Turkey), Istanbul (Turkey), and Cordoba (Argentina) shows that under these circumstances, governors who mobilize partisan loyalties can resolve disputes between business and labor, while others who are unable to do so cannot implement the proposed changes.

The Disappearing Conference Committee: The Use of Procedures by Minority Coalitions to Prevent Conferencing

Despite the importance of post-passage bargaining for legislative outcomes, little is known about the factors that lead to a conference committee. While the conventional wisdom claims conferences are used to resolve differences on important or complicated legislation, the theory developed here claims that coalition size and chamber rules are increasingly important determinants of conferencing. The empirical results demonstrate that post-passage bargaining and conferencing depend on the ability of the coalition within each chamber to overcome procedural hurdles. This has important implications for post-passage bargaining in an age of narrow, partisan coalitions. While the chambers may prefer conferencing to resolve their differences, minority coalitions are now willing to block the motions necessary to conference, forcing amendment trading on many bills.