The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in a polarized political system: Lessons from the 2020 election

Abstract

Given the deep polarization of the American political system in recent decades, was the 2020 presidential election an extension of the pre-existing partisan coalitions or did the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic consequences have a significant impact on the outcome? Using a national probability sample provided by AmeriSpeak and voter verification provided by Catalist, we construct a structural equation model to examine the relative influence of age, race, gender, education, religious fundamentalism, ideological partisanship, affective partisanship, and measures of Covid-19 experiences and understanding to predict the 2020 vote. We re-construct the partisan polarization landscape to examine the role of politically interested non-partisans in the center of the ideological spectrum and examine their ability to select candidates in response of specific issues. The Covid-19 pandemic had a significant marginal impact on the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.