Party System Research Articles

Charter–manifesto congruence as a signal for issue salience: democratic innovations within political parties in Hungary

ABSTRACT This article proposes a proxy for issue salience via studying congruence between parties’ organizational structure and the policies they promote to their voters. This charter-manifesto congruence, i.e. institutionalizing the same democratic innovations at the intra-party level and advocating for their adoption at the national level, is particularly useful to demarcate party profiles in dominant party systems and electoral autocracies. To demonstrate how such congruence can be measured, we analyse the credibility of the commitments made by opposition parties in Hungary to a variety of democratic innovations. Drawing on novel survey data, we further substantiate our argument by showing high support for these innovations among party members and voters. The analysis identifies gender quotas as the most congruent innovation. Our longitudinal research design also reveals a recent breakthrough of e-democracy in party manifestos. We then discuss how preferences for various innovations are potentially shaped by membership size, party founders’ political socialization or organizational learning. At the normative level, the analysis suggests that some forms of democratic innovations are better suited for intra-party organizations than for party manifestos. These implications might be relevant for those committed to promoting deliberation, gender equality and (re-)engagement of the youth in politics.

Partisanship with Rightist and Leftist Parties in Central America: A Test of Four Hypotheses

Abstract Although scholars have made substantial progress in the debate on party systems in Latin America, many questions about partisanship in the region remain unaddressed. This article explores how the determinants of partisanship identified in the literature navigate in Central America, a region commonly overlooked by scholars. We examine a decade of public opinion surveys by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) from 2008 to 2018 to explore the individual-level determinants of partisan attachments with sixty-six leftist and rightist parties in six Central American countries to test four hypotheses. While differences across countries exist, self-placement on the left-right ideological scale, engagement in societal organizations, and protest participation help portray partisan attachments.

Introduction.The post-Berlusconi centre right and the challenge of governing

ABSTRACT This introduction to the ‘Politics in Italy 2024’ special issue sheds light on the main events that unfolded during the course of the last year. A central focus is on the passing of Silvio Berlusconi, discussing his legacy and the consequences of his death for the Italian party system. This introduction also discusses the extent to which Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) was able to honour its election pledges, and to act in such a way as to draw a clear line of discontinuity with previous governments. Drawing on Peter Mair’s well-known idea that parties in power are torn between responsibility and responsiveness, we explore the factors that propelled the Meloni government in the direction of the former objective. These aspects are assessed against the available empirical evidence presented in this special issue, revealing that despite notable instances of rupture, Giorgi Meloni’s government has largely followed in the footsteps of its predecessors.

The impact of party competition on LGBTI+ rights: Evidence from Spanish autonomous regions (1990–2022)

AbstractPolitical competition accelerates the enactment of lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans*, and intersexual rights (LGBTI+) due to the dynamic, rational behavior of mainstream parties across the political aisle to adapt to the sociopolitical environment. We argue that LGBTI+ social movements capitalize on median voter shifts combined with the rising pressure of ideologically close challenger parties to enact legislation. To examine this argument, we employ quantitative event history analysis with a unique dataset with measures for social movement, institutional, political, and sociocultural dimensions across 33 years in Spanish subnational arenas. We find that rising leftist and liberal contenders challenging dominant center‐left and center‐right parties, respectively, widen the opportunity political structure of LGBTI+ organizations. Ultimately, rising political fragmentation in a multiparty, multidimensional party system turns both left and right mainstream parties into allies of LGBTI+ organizations, which propose new legislation, due to political platforms seeking to preserve and enhance their electoral base.Related ArticlesBurnett, Craig M., and Aaron S. King. 2015. “The Personal Politics of Same‐Sex Marriage.” Politics & Policy 43(4): 586–610. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12126.Lewis, Gregory B., Marc A. Rogers, and Kenneth Sherrill. 2011. “Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Voters in the 2000 US Presidential Election.” Politics & Policy 39(5): 655–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2011.00315.x.Skipworth, Sue Ann, Andrew Garner, and Bryan J. Dettrey. 2010. “Limitations of the Contact Hypothesis: Heterogeneity in the Contact Effect on Attitudes toward Gay Rights.” Politics & Policy 38(5): 887–906. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2010.00262.x.

Is wearing these sunglasses an attack? Obligations under IHL related to anti-AI countermeasures

Abstract As usage of military artificial intelligence (AI) expands, so will anti-AI countermeasures, known as adversarials. International humanitarian law offers many protections through its obligations in attack, but the nature of adversarials generates ambiguity regarding which party (system user or opponent) should incur attacker responsibilities. This article offers a cognitive framework for legally analyzing adversarials. It explores the technical, tactical and legal dimensions of adversarials, and proposes a model based on foreseeable harm to determine when legal responsibility should transfer to the countermeasure's author. The article provides illumination to the future combatant who ponders, before putting on their adversarial sunglasses: “Am I conducting an attack?”

Why Didn’t Brazilian Democracy Die?

ABSTRACT Brazil, for many scholars and pundits, showcased the risk of democratic breakdown with the election of a far-right populist like Jair Bolsonaro. Against pessimistic expectations, however, not only has Brazilian democracy survived but politics has returned to business as usual. What can explain this supposedly unanticipated outcome? This article provides an analytical assessment of this this puzzle and offers an alternative explanation. We argue that both the diagnoses of Brazilian institutions and the predictions made were misguided. We explore the role played by the Supreme Court, party system, media, and congressional politics in restricting Bolsonaro’s illiberal initiatives.

Affective Polarization Between Opinion-Based Groups in a Context of Low Partisan Discord: Measuring Its Prevalence and Consequences

Abstract Affective polarization has been primarily studied as a phenomenon between partisans. Recently, Hobolt, Leeper, & Tilley (2021) showed in the context of Brexit that affective polarization can also materialize around opinion-based groups, that is, political identities that form around extraordinary issues and cut through partisan lines. We generalize their findings by documenting the emergence of affective polarization around a new political conflict in a national context of low partisan discord. Specifically, we study divisions around the government response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, a multiparty system where all established parties supported certain freedom restrictions to contain the pandemic. Drawing on numerous indicators and a survey experiment from a representative online panel study, we explored the (a) prevalence, (b) consequences, and (c) context of affective polarization between supporters and opponents of COVID-19 containment policies. We found that the majority of supporters and a minority of opponents showed indications of affective polarization. Affectively polarized citizens showed various group biases that make productive political and social interactions less likely. Affective polarization was stable over time and different from partisan and sociostructural conflicts. We raise questions for future research and discuss what it means for democracy when deep political rifts are not captured by main parties in a party system.

Review Essay: Donald Trump, Charismatic Leadership and the “Deep State”

Abstract There have been many accounts of Donald Trump's assault on America's constitutional norms and institutions. Journalists have detailed how a real estate mogul and reality television star with no experience in public office captured the Republican Party and disrupted the regular protocols of the executive branch. Legal scholars have lamented Trump's politicization of the Justice Department breaking through the fragile guard rails put in place in the wake of the Watergate scandal. Psychiatrists have sought to diagnose Trump's politics of resentment, which they attribute to the rage and narcissism of a sociopath. Amid this frenzy John Campbell's Institutions Under Siege: Donald Trump's Attack on the Deep State provides a comprehensive study on Trump's assault on American political and government institutions. He shows persuasively that Trump's presidency had a deep and dangerous imprint on elections, the Republican Party, the bureaucracy, and fiscal policy. Critically examining Campbell’s theory and evidence, this essay considers where Trump stands in the long train of democratic crises that have occurred throughout American history, how his presidency and its provocative aftermath were a symptom of long-standing changes in the relationship between the presidency and the party system, and why the presidency itself might be a polarizing institution.

Catalysts of change: Unveiling the nexus between protest movements and party politics in the Mediterranean

ABSTRACT The recent surges of protest have emerged as a striking global phenomenon. Several diverse countries, including Egypt, the United States, Spain, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the United Kingdom, have witnessed massive protest movements over the past decade. Numerous recent studies have underscored the pivotal role of the interaction between protest movements and party politics. However, our understanding of why certain movements profoundly impact the political landscape, sometimes triggering the collapse of existing party systems, while others barely alter conventional politics, remains limited. Drawing from case studies of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Turkey, we conduct a systematic comparative analysis of the impact of protest movements during the 2010s. We aim to elucidate why and how some protests have proven more effective in reshaping party politics, while others have faltered. Our contention is that the dynamics of the party system play a pivotal role in determining the capacity of social movements to instigate transformative changes in party politics.

BLENDING DOMINANCE, REGIONALISM AND COALITIONS: A NEW READING OF INDIA’S FOURTH PARTY SYSTEM

Since 2014, India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won more elections at the national and state levels than it has lost, returning with an even larger majority in the 2019 General Election. However, the question of whether there has been any break from the past in the nature of the Indian party system remains open. What is the nature of the BJP’s dominance in this period? What is the status of the opposition and the vitality of regional players in this new era? Have coalitions really been relegated to the past? This article investigates the current trends of the party system and compares them with tendencies exhibited historically. It applies mixed methods, largely quantitative analysis of secondary data based on ECI and Lokniti – CSDS election surveys. It argues that what has been called India’s “Fourth Party System” is not completely separate from the trends of the three preceding epochs but rather blends them in unique ways. A re-examination of the election results would reveal how dominance, regionalism and coalitions coexist in an enigmatic symbiosis offering a new reading of the structure of India’s current party system. The 2024 General Elections which witnessed a humbling but historic third consecutive BJP victory albeit reliant on coalition partners only reinforce how the three dimensions of dominance, regionalism and coalitions constantly play out in shaping the character of India’s Party System where changes seem more of a degree rather than of kind.

Going jingo: a classification of the wartime positions of Russia’s “systemic opposition” parties

ABSTRACT This article explores the impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on party-system dynamics in Russia by analyzing the war-related communication of the five main “systemic opposition” parties, their leaders, and three Communist MPs who initially criticized the invasion. Examining their adoption of established pro-war regime propaganda (anti-Ukrainian, anti-Western, “Z-talk”) or anti-war rhetoric, we assess the extent of rhetorical convergence in the party system. Based on a dictionary analysis of over 60,000 posts between February 2021 and February 2023, we find the Communist Party to be the most proactive in its pro-war jingoism, Just Russia leader Sergey Mironov to be the clearest case of a regime mouthpiece for Z-talk, and only Yabloko to provide weak but consistent dissent, while New People and the three Communist MPs avoid both pro-war and anti-war rhetoric. Our findings indicate a functional reconfiguration of the party system, stopping short of full-fledged rhetorical harmonization toward “GDR-ization.”

Dialogues Across Time: Perspectives on Historical and Contemporary Democratization

Abstract This review article leverages Isabela Mares’ Protecting the Ballot: How First-Wave Democracies Ended Electoral Corruption as a jumping off point to consider how to construct a dialogue between scholars of contemporary electoral malfeasance and historical political economists. It makes two main points. First, because both scholars of history and of the contemporary world are usually engaged in mixed-method case study research, both grapple with issues of case generalizability and external validity. This produces a naturally shared research agenda, although one that has largely gone unrecognized. Generalizability would be improved if both groups mapped their cases onto larger distributions of the phenomenon of interest. Second, the very substantial differences between party systems of first-wave and recent democratizers suggest that political elites will support reforms aimed at improving election integrity differently across the two periods. Contemporary electoral competition is unlikely to naturally give rise to the emergence of programmatic politics, instead locking parties into clientelism and various types of election malfeasance. I discuss what might be required for politicians today to support reforms aimed at curbing election malfeasance, and when the shift to programmatic politics becomes in the political interests of elected officials.

The Great Global Divider? A Comparison of Urban-Rural Partisan Polarization in Western Democracies

This study is the first to measure urban-rural electoral divides in a way that facilitates comparisons beyond majoritarian democracies of the UK and North America. Based on national election results at the lowest available geographic level in fifteen countries covering roughly five decades, we present a measure for each election and political party, enabling comparisons over time and between countries with different electoral and party systems. We show that long-term increases in urban-rural divides have been most pronounced in the US, the UK, and Canada, but these divides have also emerged in several European multiparty systems in recent decades, largely because of growing smaller parties with predominantly urban or rural support. Overall urban-rural electoral divides remain lower in these systems due to continued presence of mainstream parties with geographically diverse support. Our contribution paves the way for a comparative research agenda on causes and consequences of urban-rural electoral polarization.

Transition from parliamentarism to presidentialism and the restructuring of the Turkish party system

ABSTRACT The role of institutional factors on party system change has received increasing scholarly attention. This article analyses the emergence of new trends in the structure of party competition in Turkey following the transition from parliamentarism to presidentialism in 2017. The newly-adopted presidential system endowed the president with extraordinary powers and reduced the role of the parliament. Presidential elections assumed central importance in electoral politics; competition was structured by pre-electoral coalitions and party alliances; more than two-thirds of the voters cast their ballots for one of the two main electoral alliances; and there was a trend towards the emergence of a bipolar party system. The analysis presented in this study emphasizes the role of institutional engineering, especially the introduction of presidentialism and changes in electoral laws, as major factors in the restructuring of the Turkish party system.

The Making of India’s Resilient Opposition in the 1970s

This article seeks to focus on the changing nature of India’s parliamentary opposition in the 1970s. The article argues that, unlike the previous decades, the Opposition in India was resilient, even if not organised in the face of the authoritarian tendencies of Indira Gandhi pre- and during the Emergency. The analytical framework helps to understand the reasons for the growing opposition’s resilience. The manifestation of this resilience can be traced to the programmes and actions of the opposition parties undertaken in the 1970s inside and outside the parliament as the crisis of democratic governance deepened, as explained in this article. This article attempts to make sense of parliamentary opposition in the 1970s, unlike any other existing study that either focused on the Congress, party system, or emergency per se. This article brings the spotlight on the Opposition as a category that lacks constitutional safeguards, thereby missing the ‘equality of conditions’ in a democratic framework. An emphasis is given to analytically understanding the political processes that played a significant role in the government–opposition relationship. The study has been conducted with the help of primary archival materials, newspaper reportings, memoirs, commentaries and governmental records such as parliamentary debates, along with existing academic works (though scarcely) on the making and functioning of the Opposition in India. The analytical approach in studying this particular moment in the political history of India helps us to understand the primacy, effectiveness, limitations and failures of democratic governance from the Opposition’s standpoint.

THE PARTISAN PARTICIPATION IN THE JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Purpose: The study explores parliamentary elections, election laws, and party attitudes, using content analysis to understand their impact on electoral outcomes. It suggests recommendations for enhancing trust and promoting democratic principles.
 
 Theoretical framework: The study's theoretical framework may incorporate political science and sociology concepts, focusing on electoral processes, political parties, and democratic governance. It may explore institutionalism, party systems theory, democratic theory, and content analysis methodology to understand the impact of election laws, party behavior, and democratic norms on political outcomes.
 
 Design/Methodology/Approach: The study's theoretical framework may incorporate political science and sociology concepts, focusing on electoral processes, political parties, and democratic governance. It may explore institutionalism, party systems theory, democratic theory, and content analysis methodology to understand the impact of election laws, party behavior, and democratic norms on political outcomes.
 
 Findings: The study may have revealed the dynamic nature of the electoral environment, the impact of election laws on party behavior, partisan positions on electoral processes, the effectiveness of political parties in elections, trust in political institutions, and recommendations for electoral reform. These findings could help strengthen democratic governance and electoral processes.
 
 Research, Practical & Social Implications: The study provides empirical insights into party behavior and election laws, highlighting the importance of qualitative research methods. It can inform policymakers, political parties, and civil society organizations in electoral reforms, enhancing fairness, transparency, and inclusivity. The findings can also promote trust, civic engagement, and protection of human rights, fostering a more inclusive democracy.
 
 Originality/Value: The study provides valuable insights into evolving electoral dynamics, partisan positions, and electoral outcomes. It offers recommendations for improving trust and promoting democratic principles. The content analysis method provides a rigorous framework for analyzing textual data, enhancing the robustness of the findings.

How Parties and Ambitious Politicians Undermined American Democracy—and the Reforms that Might Save It

Abstract Asserting that American checks and balances have broken down, Lawrence Jacobs asserts that parties must filter out dangerous candidates such as Donald Trump. To do so requires a number of reforms to undo several wrong turns in the evolution of the party system. Ambitious political elites including Jefferson, Jackson, LaFollette, and McGovern introduced changes in the name of greater equality that served their own interests but also had a number of harmful consequences. Reforms are needed to expand and reinvigorate citizen political participation along many dimensions and curb elite influence. In his book Democracy Under Fire: Donald Trump and the Breaking of American History, Lawrence Jacobs offers a robust vision of democracy and argues democracy is incompatible with entrenching minority control of electoral outcomes or political decision-making. Yet some of the failures and changes that gave rise to current threats to democracy, including authoritarian candidates, have affected other nations and have causes that go beyond remedies considered here. Some of the modest reforms proposed by Jacobs seem unlikely to achieve the purposes he envisions. However, reforms that do not require constitutional amendments and broader citizen political engagement that extends beyond election season are welcome proposals.

Growing Up in a Polarized Party System: Ideological Divergence and Partisan Sorting Across Generations

American political elites have increasingly polarized over the past decades, which has inspired much research into mass polarization. We study whether there is a generational component to mass polarization by disentangling period, age, and cohort differences while distinguishing two forms of mass polarization: partisan sorting and ideological divergence. Drawing from General Social Survey and American National Election Studies data, we find that partisan sorting has increased across long-standing and emerging issues, while ideological divergence has not. Contrary to expectations, over-time increases in sorting are clearly driven by changes within generations rather than by generational replacement. On several issues, newer generations turn out to be less sorted than those they replace. This tentatively suggests that, partially as a consequence of demographic changes, generational replacement will gradually lead to less polarization in American public opinion as it converges toward more liberal positions.

THE BULGARIAN SOCIALIST PARTY ON THE PATH TO DE-EUROPEANIZATION

The article's main purpose is to shed light on the Euroscepticism of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and its shifting identity towards European issues, liberal democracy, and in terms of party organization during the last decade. More than twenty years ago, the successor of the former Bulgarian Communist Party managed to achieve a difficult (and, it turns out, superficial) Europeanisation and Social-democratization. BSP supported the country's accession to the EU and the integration in NATO. Now, the party is identifiable as a pro-Russian actor, opposed to the Istanbul convention, spreading conservatism, and hysteria against the so called "gender ideology," fighting against economic neo-liberalism but also liberal ideas. The Russian war against Ukraine significantly impacted domestic politics and the structure of party competition, revitalizing the historic divide between pro-Russian and pro-Western camps. Isolated, the BSP lost its position as a major party of government and embraced anti-establishment and protest-party profile. The main research questions address the essence of the BSP's ethnonationalist and conservative turn, and its hybrid interpretations of "national interest" and "patriotism" in its discourses and documents. Special attention is paid to the BSP's positions towards the war in Ukraine. Our main approach is grounded on the path dependency theory and on the supply and demand sides of the fragmented party system.

Party System Change and Challenges to Democracy in Slovenia

In the context of a post-socialist party system, stabilisation is believed to be linked to democracy. Based on that assumption, it could be inferred that party system instability is not compatible with the consolidation of democracy. However, research has found that the destabilisation of party systems does not endanger democracy in Western countries. The case study of Slovenia reveals that dynamic changes in the party system and consolidation of democracy may also be feasible in the post-socialist context. There are factors additional to party system instability that may together produce a shift away from democracy, as happened in Slovenia in the period between 2019 and 2022 under Janez Janša’s government. This exploratory study of Slovenia has revealed domestic and external factors, which together co-create the particular outcomes of a fluid democracy, including several not yet revealed in the literature as relevant. The findings encourage further comparative qualitative and quantitative research not only into factors of democratic decline, but also of democratic stability in the context of multiple external shocks.