Participatory Foresight Research Articles

A Participatory Foresight Approach in Disaster Risk Management: The Multi-Risk Storylines.

A Participatory Foresight Approach in Disaster Risk Management: The Multi-Risk Storylines.

Climate change adaptation measures in the context of health promotion using participatory foresight

Abstract Issue/problem Climate change is regarded as a big threat to human health (WHO 2023), requiring action to prepare our health systems. Using participatory foresight approach has the potential to increase capacities of communities and to sustain future health. The process is easily transferable to other regions or countries across Europe. The work is part of the Austrian “Climate-Resilience-Check Health for regions and municipalities”. Description of the problem We present an innovative qualitative method to contribute to a climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment following WHO’s guidelines. Questions answered by the project were: • What measures can be taken to shape the regions’ potential for a health-promoting lifestyle and to increase climate resilience? • Does participatory foresight represent a well-suited method to develop climate adaptation measures which address local needs? Taking place between 10/23 to 12/23, the participatory foresight process consisted of (1) a foresight-workshop facilitating development of adaptation measures through the creation of personas and (2) intervention boards, which gave the broader population the opportunity to vote for measures developed in the workshop. The aim of the approach was to identify measures that receive approval within the population. Results The participatory foresight process highlighted the local populations’ wish of revitalizing village centers to strengthen social cohesion. Particular emphasis was placed on the establishment of a community center and the expansion of daycare services. Lessons The process will be conducted in further regions as part of the Climate-Resilience-Check Health for Austrian regions and provides lessons of good practice for roll-out across European countries aiming to bridge efforts for climate adaptation and health promotion at regional levels.

Navigating Tomorrow's Tide: Exploring the Future of Ocean Resources and Their Impact on Food and Feed Safety

Abstract In a context of global changes, a foresight study is helpful to look into the future, anticipate possible scenarios and take appropriate decisions to face emerging risks for food and feed safety. Considering that an increased use of the ocean is expected for the next decades, it is essential to explore its possible impact on the safety of food and feed from the oceans. A scoping study was carried out to analyse drivers of change that may impact/promote the future uses of the ocean and its resources. From bibliographic search, different ocean uses were identified: coastal and open‐sea mining, marine aquaculture, sea transport and trade, energy production and related infrastructures, fisheries, ocean crops, saline farming, desalination, extraction of bioresources, marine protected areas and conservation of the ocean. Through the information gathered in the scoping study and the input of several experts, three key ocean uses were prioritised to proceed to a participatory foresight exercise: (i) coastal and open‐sea mining; (ii) marine aquaculture; and (iii) sea transport and trade. The foresight exercise produced three possible scenarios for 2050 for each prioritised use of the ocean. On the basis of these scenarios, possible implications and potential emerging issues for the safety of food and feed from the oceans were identified and characterised through bibliographic data. This document also provides a description of the methodology followed in the scoping study and in the foresight exercise, and recommendations that could help EFSA to prepare to the challenges posed by the future exploitation of ocean resources.

Insights/Opinion — Harnessing Complexity and Participatory Foresight: An Innovative Approach for Sustainable Urban Planning

This Insight paper argues that urban planning should be more than “smart” or more than just relying on the sheer amount of urban data. Rather, the urban planning should also incorporate foresight to address the complexity of urban development that urban data might have revealed. To do this, we propose the convergence of foresight (or futures studies) and complexity science within the context of urban planning. Foresight equips stakeholders with tools to anticipate and prepare for future scenarios in urban development, facilitating strategic decision-making, risk management, and policy development. Complexity science, on the other hand, offers a deeper understanding of urban systems by examining nonlinear interactions and emergent properties. This paper discusses how complexity science enriches our comprehension of urban systems, revealing intricate patterns and behaviors in the urban context. This, in turn, informed foresight methodologies that can enhance urban planning by considering dynamic urban systems. This Insight paper suggests the way to move forward is by combining foresight and complexity science for developing innovative urban planning practices to shape the future of smart and sustainable cities.

Anticipating impacts: using large-scale scenario-writing to explore diverse implications of generative AI in the news environment

AbstractThe tremendous rise of generative AI has reached every part of society—including the news environment. There are many concerns about the individual and societal impact of the increasing use of generative AI, including issues such as disinformation and misinformation, discrimination, and the promotion of social tensions. However, research on anticipating the impact of generative AI is still in its infancy and mostly limited to the views of technology developers and/or researchers. In this paper, we aim to broaden the perspective and capture the expectations of three stakeholder groups (news consumers; technology developers; content creators) about the potential negative impacts of generative AI, as well as mitigation strategies to address these. Methodologically, we apply scenario-writing and use participatory foresight in the context of a survey (n = 119) to delve into cognitively diverse imaginations of the future. We qualitatively analyze the scenarios using thematic analysis to systematically map potential impacts of generative AI on the news environment, potential mitigation strategies, and the role of stakeholders in causing and mitigating these impacts. In addition, we measure respondents' opinions on a specific mitigation strategy, namely transparency obligations as suggested in Article 52 of the draft EU AI Act. We compare the results across different stakeholder groups and elaborate on different expected impacts across these groups. We conclude by discussing the usefulness of scenario-writing and participatory foresight as a toolbox for generative AI impact assessment.

A participatory foresight approach to envisioning post-pandemic urban development pathways in Tokyo

Ensuring sustainable urban futures demands varied approaches, particularly with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, which presents a unique situation and experience for reimagining urban futures. A considerable number of scientific inquiries have adopted participatory foresight approaches to imagining sustainable urban development pathways. However, not many have used a similar approach to envision urban development pathways in a post-COVID-19 era. Based on available evidence on the impacts of COVID-19 on urban forms and lifestyles and citizens’ experiences during the pandemic, such a study is imperative to better understand how people from different demographic groups envision an ideal post-pandemic city. Using the Greater Tokyo Area as a case study, we adopted the Q methodology to determine post-pandemic urban development pathways from the subjective viewpoints of diverse stakeholders. We identified four development pathways for an ideal post-pandemic city. The first pathway is a resilient city with good neighborhood accessibility and sustainable urban regeneration. The second and third pathways, shared by younger people, focus on pro-environmental climate change mitigation (city compactness, shared mobility) and pro-urban resilience, respectively. The final pathway imagines a post-pandemic city that is accessible, safe, and smart. We found that different age groups perceive their ideal cities differently, especially when emphasizing the nexus between pandemics and cities. The study illustrates the need to adopt more participatory approaches in designing future urban development pathways since varied perspectives of an ideal city exist among different age demographics. These approaches promote equitable, inclusive, and transparent urban planning, advancing community support for policymaking and implementation.

Human-centred decision support for the common good: a combination of participatory foresight methods

ABSTRACT This paper explores innovative approaches to decision-making for the common good by addressing the challenges posed by participatory foresight techniques such as backcasting and the Delphi method. Our paper is a methodological evaluation of our research that focused on how a more sustainable future vision on the world of sports could replace the currently highly commodified industry that not so long ago had a clear function in providing a good life to humans. This paper aims to contribute to the decision support literature on how the combinations of participation and deliberation with different policy-oriented foresight methodologies entailing both lay and expert knowledge can advance the understanding of values that underpin common good decisions. At the same time, these processes can also uncover concrete actions and policy interventions that can transform current economic and social processes, moving them beyond the utilitarian logic of our realities.

Developing strategic foresight for drug policy: trends, scenarios, and implications

Background This study utilized foresight analysis to project drug policy trends and challenges in Finland up to 2030. It aimed to develop scenarios and strategies for addressing critical issues and to explore alternative policy options. Methods A comprehensive methodology was employed, including scope analysis, horizon scanning, trend analysis, and scenario building along with the expert panels. This approach facilitated the identification and categorization of trends into mega-trends, emerging trends, and weak signals, ensuring a robust and inclusive analysis. Results Key findings include mega-trends, such as changing drug policies and rising economic burdens. Emerging trends highlight the increase in synthetic, polydrug, and prescription drug use, vulnerability in certain subgroups, and growing drug-related mortality. Weak signals point to the advent of online drug marketplaces and new treatment methods. Past foresight studies agree on market growth and policy inertia but diverge on resource allocation and older generation targeting. Conclusion Developed scenarios and strategies address issues like increasing drug prevalence, service gaps, and market diversification, advocating for integrated approaches in demand reduction, governance, law enforcement, environmental protection, and harm reduction services. This research highlights the significance of participatory foresight methods in shaping Finnish drug policy, offering valuable insights for future trajectories and affirming the importance of foresight in this field.

Anticipating return migration to Ukraine: participatory foresight with Ukrainians displaced to Spain

Abstract In the context of the ongoing Russian invasion and the uncertainties surrounding the potential return migration of millions of displaced Ukrainians, this study explores the future of (return) migration through an innovative and inclusive participatory foresight approach, engaging 20 displaced Ukrainians residing in Valencia, Spain, from May to December 2023. The foresight process included workshops, discussions via online messaging groups, interviews, participatory observations, and culminated in an open art exhibition. Through this process, we conducted a collective horizon scanning, identifying weak signals and emerging trends, followed by an examination of critical uncertainties, which led to the development of four distinct scenarios: Exhaustion Return, Energetic Return, Virtual Return, and Disconnection. The insights derived from this foresight exercise hold practical relevance for both Ukrainian and EU migration policymakers, emphasizing the importance of lived experiences in shaping anticipatory migration policies. This study also offers theoretical contributions by applying participatory foresight to the field of return migration, challenging established knowledge paradigms, and fostering a more inclusive and nuanced understanding of migration dynamics and their broader implications.

Actions to strengthen the contribution of small farms and small food businesses to food security in Europe

This study stems from a participatory foresight exercise conducted in nine Mediterranean, Baltic, Nordic and Eastern European regions, aiming to strengthen the role of small farms and small food businesses in ensuring food security. A wide range of stakeholders participated by attending workshops. They represented farmers’ organisations, food businesses, consumers’ organisations, NGOs, researchers, extension services, professional groups, and administration and public bodies. The actions proposed by participants are scanned and categorised around six broad objectives, stakeholders’ priorities and their underlying beliefs and preconceptions are discussed around the current debates of the literature, and the drivers that influence the feasibility of the proposed actions are discussed. Furthermore, the alignment of stakeholders’ -driven objectives with the European Strategies on food, agriculture, and rural areas is examined, with a focus on: (i) the EU Farm to Fork Strategy, (ii) the Rural Action Plan contained in the Long-Term Vision of Rural Areas developed by the EU Commission, and (iii) the Common Agricultural Policy in force since January 2023.

Producing futures for the Arctic: what agency for Indigenous communities in foresight arenas?

The integration of Indigenous and Local Knowledge (ILK) and the involvement of Indigenous peoples and Local communities (IPLCs) in the making of the futures are strongly encouraged by the implementation of processes such as participatory scenarios. This article critically examines efforts within this area in Arctic regions by analysing how ILK integration occurs and what agency IPLCs have in this process. We identify three different foresight arenas where futures are manufactured, namely: the global reviewing, foresight forums, and local participatory foresight arenas. IPLCs have been integrated; however their agency remains limited. Instead of allowing IPLCs to offer innovative foresight methods, define foresight files specific to Indigenous priorities and concerns, and develop alternative futures, this integration in fact constrains ILK by enforcing a Western paradigm. We also identify two distinct strategies for Indigenous people to promote their own futures and strengthen their influence over the process of making decisions about the Arctic. The first is a battle of the futures where IPLCs compete with other stakeholders within the arenas’ existing frameworks to ensure that their interests are adequately addressed. The second involves decolonizing futures by emancipating their production from the frameworks of the arenas and creating new space for ILK paradigms.

Strengthening Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to High-Consequence Biological Threats

Introduction:The world is facing the devastating impact a biological event can have on human health, economies, and political stability. COVID-19 has revealed that national governments and the international community are woefully unprepared to respond to pandemics—underscoring our shared vulnerability to future catastrophic biological threats that could meet or exceed the severe consequences of the current pandemic. This study examines potential threats related to deliberate Russian military use and misuse of the tools of modern biology or an accident caused by a CBRN event evolving rapidly in the highly volatile political environment in and around Ukraine and other conflicts.Method:A participatory foresight, co-creative, future and transformation-oriented methodology was used to structure a transformative model for a disciplined exploration of scenarios to confront complex challenges and facilitate improved outcomes. Foresight helps to evaluate current policy priorities and potential new policy directions; see how the impact of possible policy decisions may combine with other developments; inform, support and link policy-making in and across a range of sectors; identify future directions, emerging technologies, new societal demands and challenges; and anticipate future developments, disruptive events, risks and opportunities.Results:The study found that the “mitigation scenarios” are based on the “Confront, Regulate, Overcome” metamodel combined with the “Security, Rescue, Care” response modalities. These require the cooperation/coordination of law enforcement forces along with military forces, fire departments and civil security resources, hospital and first-line responder teams, in order to appropriately address populations, assets and territories issues elicited by the identified threat, which drives key decision makers’ tasks at the strategic level.Conclusion:The participatory foresight exercise demonstrated gaps in national and international biosecurity and pandemic preparedness architectures highlighted by the challenges of the Ukraine war—exploring opportunities for better cooperation to improve prevention and response capabilities for high-consequence biological events, and generate actionable recommendations for the international community.

Adapting a participatory modelling method to forecast food system scenarios: a case study on the pork value-chain

For a value-chain to be sustainable, the main challenge is sometimes its durability. When stakeholders are lost in the shifting maze of economic, social and environmental issues, participatory foresight methods help them consider the options and choose a strategy to follow. The aim is to create several scenarios of evolution of the value-chain and select desirable scenarios. Because of the global context in 2020 and 2021, implementing methodological and organizational adaptations in the classic "scenario method" from Michel Godet was necessary. These adaptations are exemplified by the case study of the prospective for the French pork value-chain in the next 5 years. Indeed, this value-chain touches particularly on certain contemporary concerns, with much discussion about its environmental footprint, its human resource challenge and its social acceptability, as is the case for most food value-chains in developed countries.

Ex-post consequences of participatory foresight processes in agriculture. How to help dairy farmers to face outcomes of collective decisions planning?

The analysis of the consequences of participatory foresight in agriculture over the long term is little studied in the scientific literature. In particular, it questions how farmers deal with the proposed scenarios afterwards and the modalities of their implementation. This article aims to overcome this by proposing an ex-post analysis of a foresight process with New World Kirkpatrick's Model (NWKM) carried out in mid-2018 in the Fourme de Montbrison cheese Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) area in the Massif Central (France). A set of 24 semi-structured interviews was conducted in spring and summer 2020 with the dairy farmers involved. Moreover, collective organization has been investigated through participatory observation and an analysis of project's progress reports until March 2021. The results show that while the engagement of farmers in the collective dynamic remains, it needs to be continuously rebuilt over time, particularly in order to overcome the effects of social risk-taking and insecurity that farmers must face. In addition, the place of stakeholders needs to be clarified. The article proposes a series of guidelines based on the project's experience and the “Monitor and Adjust” approach of the NWKM. It demonstrates the importance of establishing long-term follow-ups to foresight approaches to encourage farmers into action.

The future of small farms and small food businesses as actors in regional food security: A participatory scenario analysis from Europe and Africa

• Outcomes of 13 participatory foresight workshops are compared. • Small farms' and businesses' contribution to food security is important in three of the four considered scenarios. • Concerns on small farms and food businesses relate to the broader rural setting. • Weak collective action will hamper the adaptive capacity of small farms.

Designing energy futures: a participatory foresight study in Australia

PurposeThis paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.Design/methodology/approachThis paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.FindingsFirst, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.Research limitations/implicationsThe most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.Practical implicationsThe main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.Social implicationsThe main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.Originality/valueThis paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Radical Technology Inquirer: a methodology for holistic, transparent and participatory technology foresight

This paper introduces and motivates the Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) methodology for anticipation of technological breakthroughs and their combined cross-sectoral and social impacts. The primary use of the methodology is long-term policy evaluation and design. The first version of the methodology was published in 2013. This paper reports the current RTI 2018 version, which is based on systematic collection of scientific and technological news and grounded on theory. It combines societal functions with technological opportunities by conceptualising 20 “global value-producing networks” GVNs and 100 “anticipated radical technologies” ARTs. The RTI methodology is participatory, using continuous crowdsourcing and stakeholder evaluations. Each GVN is characterised by a need and an existing and a novel way of satisfying that need and organising the societal function. The methodology combines existing and new foresight methods and concepts to achieve a holistic and transparent approach for anticipating technology-enabled transformative socio-technical developments of the next 20 years. In this anticipation effort, the focus is more on recent weak signals of emerging technological capabilities than on past strong signals, e.g. the diffusion of various technologies.

Strengthening foresight for governance of social-ecological systems: An interdisciplinary perspective

In recent decades, foresight has been connected to various disciplines that engage with complex societal problems, leading to specific interpretations of foresight. We offer an interdisciplinary perspective on foresight's increasing use for governance of social-ecological systems (SES). We seek to strengthen the use of foresight in this domain by bridging to insights from other disciplines that can help overcome its limitations. Participatory foresight for SES governance offers potential to elicit thinking about uncertainty and complexity, facilitate dialogue between stakeholders, and improve inclusiveness of governance processes, but often fails to be sufficiently reflexive and politically aware to be truly impactful and inclusive. It can be strengthened, we argue, by a more thorough integration with adjacent research fields: critical futures studies, critical systems theory and environmental governance. We distill key insights from these fields, including the importance of being politically reflexive about whose perspectives are considered, whom foresight processes should benefit, and the importance of co-producing methodology and outcomes. We encourage scholars and practitioners to further explore integration with these fields, highlighting the importance of inter- and transdisciplinary teams. Finally, we offer an example for how limitations of foresight as used in a particular field can be overcome through interdisciplinary integration.

The Driverless Cars Emulsion: Using participatory foresight and constructive conflict to address transport’s wicked problems

This paper introduces a novel methodology to the transport sector to foster dialogue between actors holding different perspectives on issues pertinent to the future of mobility that might be termed ‘wicked’. The case of driverless cars is considered. The paper points to a dearth of interaction between actors holding different and sometimes polar opposite views on what driverless cars could mean for the future of transport and society. It examines the role of bringing diverse perspectives together in a collaborative setting to address this wicked problem. The importance of creating task conflict is highlighted in the facilitation of engagement and achievement of shared learning.The Emulsion Methodology brings together into constructive dialogue (the emulsion) people with alternative perspectives on driverless cars (evangelists, opponents and agnostics) that may not typically mix (oil and water). The one-day workshop format (the emulsifier) involves co-creation, in mixed-perspective groups, of plausible utopias and plausible dystopias for a driverless cars future in 2050. The Three Horizons method is then used to identify significant issues at play in the transition to such futures. In turn, this enables guiding principles for present day policy to be identified. Application of the methodology to driverless cars resulted in new learning, changed perspectives and specific insights of relevance to policymaking.

Imagining the future with citizens: participatory foresight and democratic policy design in Marcoussis, France

The idea that the future is too serious and strategic to be discussed with people who are not “experts” is so commonly shared that citizens’ voices are lacking in most decision-making processes and future-oriented choices whether we look at political or research and innovation agendas. Yet, proofs to contradict this vision are now multiplying and can be found in a growing number of case studies and scientific publications. Citizens are proving not only to be legitimate actors to contribute to the future agenda-setting of local, national or European levels but also relevant and pertinent contributors. However, this practice of participatory agenda-setting—even though it is getting greater attention—remains relatively experimental, atypical and sporadic. The limits and drawbacks of citizen participation processes have already been highlighted in the literature but rather than calling this practice to an end it actually calls for more experimentation as the difficulties do not diminish the democratic need, legitimacy and value of such governance practices. Especially, since many western democracies are becoming very fragile. We will see in the preliminary part of this paper, the many challenges that undermine not only the functioning of democratic processes but also the citizens’ role and sense of agency in the governance of the society they live in, as well as the role of elected officials and experts regarding agenda-setting, then we will look into the lack of future thinking not only in the political sphere but also the educational and social practices, analyze the values of participatory processes and its potential limits and risks and finally review an experimental case of participatory foresight and policy design from the small town of Marcoussis (France) which successfully conducted a participatory agenda-setting experiment—and voted—after a 2 years-long process, their local agenda for the future together with its inhabitants, civil servants and elected officials. Marcoussis has engaged around 600 people (out of a population of 8000 inhabitants) in 25 moments, using very diverse methods and techniques (forum-theater, philosophy talks, market of ideas for the future, collective distillation) and setting the process in unusual and non-administrative contexts (entering into schools, ‘hacking’ their local popular festivals) to touch a very diverse set of citizens and gather as many contributions as possible. In this case analysis, we will inspect the preliminary conditions of how Marcoussis set up their participatory foresight and agenda-setting process, then review the creative tools and design methods that were experimented and finally, draw the lessons learned in terms of participatory agenda-setting processes and democratic innovations.