Developing strategic foresight for drug policy: trends, scenarios, and implications

Abstract

Background This study utilized foresight analysis to project drug policy trends and challenges in Finland up to 2030. It aimed to develop scenarios and strategies for addressing critical issues and to explore alternative policy options. Methods A comprehensive methodology was employed, including scope analysis, horizon scanning, trend analysis, and scenario building along with the expert panels. This approach facilitated the identification and categorization of trends into mega-trends, emerging trends, and weak signals, ensuring a robust and inclusive analysis. Results Key findings include mega-trends, such as changing drug policies and rising economic burdens. Emerging trends highlight the increase in synthetic, polydrug, and prescription drug use, vulnerability in certain subgroups, and growing drug-related mortality. Weak signals point to the advent of online drug marketplaces and new treatment methods. Past foresight studies agree on market growth and policy inertia but diverge on resource allocation and older generation targeting. Conclusion Developed scenarios and strategies address issues like increasing drug prevalence, service gaps, and market diversification, advocating for integrated approaches in demand reduction, governance, law enforcement, environmental protection, and harm reduction services. This research highlights the significance of participatory foresight methods in shaping Finnish drug policy, offering valuable insights for future trajectories and affirming the importance of foresight in this field.