Partial Shutdown Research Articles

Different spreading dynamics throughout Germany during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a time series study based on national surveillance data.

BackgroundThe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial differences in incidence rates across Germany.MethodsAssumption-free k-nearest neighbour clustering from the principal component analysis of weekly incidence rates of German counties groups similar spreading behaviour. Different spreading dynamics was analysed by the derivative plots of the temporal evolution of tuples [x(t),x’(t)] of weekly incidence rates and their derivatives. The effectiveness of the different shutdown measures in Germany during the second wave is assessed by the difference of weekly incidences before and after the respective time periods.FindingsThe implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions of different extents resulted in four distinct time periods of complex, spatially diverse, and age-related spreading patterns during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Clustering gave three regions of coincident spreading characteristics. October 2020 showed a nationwide exponential growth of weekly incidence rates with a doubling time of 10 days. A partial shutdown during November 2020 decreased the overall infection rates by 20–40% with a plateau-like behaviour in northern and southwestern Germany. The eastern parts exhibited a further near-linear growth by 30–80%. Allover the incidence rates among people above 60 years still increased by 15–35% during partial shutdown measures. Only an extended shutdown led to a substantial decrease in incidence rates. These measures decreased the numbers among all age groups and in all regions by 15–45%. This decline until January 2021 was about -1•25 times the October 2020 growth rates with a strong correlation of -0•96.InterpretationThree regional groups with different dynamics and different degrees of effectiveness of the applied measures were identified. The partial shutdown was moderately effective and at most stopped the exponential growth, but the spread remained partly plateau-like and regionally continued to grow in a nearly linear fashion. Only the extended shutdown reversed the linear growth.FundingInstitutional support and physical resources were provided by the University Witten/ Herdecke and Kliniken der Stadt Köln, German ministry of education and research ‘Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin’ (NUM), egePan Unimed (01KX2021).

COVID-19 epidemic strongly affected cancer research in Italy: a survey of the Italian Cancer Society (SIC)

BackgroundItaly was among the first countries hit by the pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The application of strict lockdown measures disproportionately affected both cancer patient care as well as basic and translational cancer research.Materials and methodsThe Italian Cancer Society (SIC) conducted a survey on the effect of lockdown on laboratories involved in cancer research in Italy. The survey was completed by 570 researchers at different stages of their career, working in cancer centers, research institutes and universities from 19 Italian regions.ResultsDuring the lockdown period, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic emergency on face-to-face research activities was high, with a complete (47.7%) or partial (36.1%) shutdown of the laboratories. In the post-lockdown period, research activities were resumed in most of the respondents’ institutions (80.4%), though with some restrictions (77.2%). COVID-19 testing was offered to research personnel only in ~50% of research institutions. Overall, the response to the pandemic was fragmented as in many cases institutions adopted different strategies often aimed at limiting possible infections without a clearly defined contingency plan. Nevertheless, research was able to provide the first answers and possible ways out of the pandemic, also with the contribution of many cancer researchers that sacrificed their research programs to help overcome the pandemic by offering their knowledge and technologies.ConclusionsGiven the current persistence of an emergency situation in many European countries, a more adequate organization of research centers will be urgent and necessary to ensure the continuity of laboratory activities in a safe environment.

Co-existing with COVID-19: Engaging the community to strengthen the public health response in Sri Lanka

COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization in early March 2020. Sri Lanka until mid-May experienced an epidemic contained within 32 clusters, largely due to a well-planned public health response. Following 2 months of partial shut-down, certain control measures are being relaxed to facilitate economic activities across the country. This paper details this public health response and explores how it could be strengthened to empower the community to co-exist with COVID- 19 in a “new normal” environment.Reprinting from Journal of the Ceylon College of Physicians, 2020, 51, 8-13 http://doi.org/10.4038/jccp.v51i1.7880

Disruption in global supply chain and socio-economic shocks: a lesson from COVID-19 for sustainable production and consumption

The novel COVID-19 has emerged as a severe threat to global health globally, affecting over 210 countries and regions. The profound dilemma interrupted global trade and social activities and enormously influenced daily lives through social distance and confinements. The outbreak of COVID-19 has exacerbated human misery due to the crippling of economies globally. The effects are substantial on health, economy, environment, and society. Nearly every country is trying to prevent the transmission of this communicable disease. Remedial policies include testing and treating patients, isolating suspects through contact tracking, banning public gatherings, and asserting a complete or partial shutdown. In this context, the present paper's core objective is to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment and energy market, society, economy, and global protective measures taken to reduce COVID-19 transmission. The study's main contribution is revealed lessons to provide insights for business and the efficacy of governments’ initiative globally. Finally, this paper describes future actions for governments, leaders, energy providers, and all stakeholders in response to the global pandemic crisis.

Different Spreading Dynamics Throughout Germany During the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Link to Public Health Interventions

Background: The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial differences in incidence rates across Germany. Methods: Assumption-free k-nearest neighbour clustering from the principal component analysis of weekly incidence rates of German counties groups similar spreading behaviour. Different spreading dynamics was analysed by the derivative plots of the temporal evolution of tuples [x(t),x’(t)] of weekly incidence rates and their derivatives. The effectiveness of the different shutdown measures in Germany during the second wave is assessed by the difference of weekly incidences before and after the respective time periods. Findings: The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions of different extents resulted in four distinct time periods of complex, spatially diverse, and age-related spreading patterns during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Clustering gave three regions of coincident spreading characteristics. October 2020 showed a nationwide exponential growth of weekly incidence rates with a doubling time of 10 days. A partial shutdown during November 2020 decreased the overall infection rates by 20–40% with a plateau-like behaviour in northern and southwestern Germany. The eastern parts exhibited a further near-linear growth by 30–80%. Allover the incidence rates among people above 60 years still increased by 15–35% during partial shutdown measures. Only an extended shutdown led to a substantial decrease in incidence rates. These measures decreased the numbers among all age groups and in all regions by 15–45%. This decline until January 2021 was about -1∙25 times the October 2020 growth rates with a strong correlation of -0∙96. Interpretation: Three regional groups with different dynamics and different degrees of effectiveness of the applied measures were identified. The partial shutdown was moderately effective and at most stopped the exponential growth, but the spread remained partly plateau-like and regionally continued to grow in a nearly linear fashion. Only the extended shutdown reversed the linear growth.Funding Statement: Institutional support and physical resources were provided by the University Witten/ Herdecke and Kliniken der Stadt Köln, German ministry of education and research ‘Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin’ (NUM), egePan Unimed (01KX2021).Declaration of Interests: Dr. Karagiannidis reports personal fees from Maquet, personal fees from Xenios, personal fees from Bayer, non-financial support from Speaker of the German register of ICUs, grants from German Ministry of Research and Education, during the conduct of the study. Dr. Schuppert reports grants from Bayer AG, outside the submitted work. Dr. Jens Karschau has nothing to disclose. Dr. Polotzek has nothing to disclose. Dr. Schmitt reports personal fees from Sanofi, Lilly, ALK, Novartis, grants from Sanofi, Pfizer, ALK, Novartis, outside the submitted work. Dr. Busse reports grants from Berlin University Alliance, non-financial support from German Federal Ministry of Health, during the conduct of the study.

V-5 Model of Employee Engagement During COVID-19 and Post Lockdown

COVID-19 has left the globe in a situation of despondency. Physical as well as the human resources (HR) of an organization were adversely affected during the lockdown. The corporate world is observing several corporate crises from the full or partial shutdown of businesses to layoffs, furloughs and resignations. HR managers are struggling to curb this renunciation of employees and grappling with reduced employee engagement. To keep employees highly motivated in this time of mayhem and maelstrom of the pandemic, HR managers need to revisit their employee engagement strategies with a new perspective. This article provides a ready reference list of variables to HR managers to enhance employee engagement level during COVID-19 and post lockdown. This article suggests five major elements of employee engagement, namely—value, voice, variety, virtue and vision. These logical elements of employee engagement are identified after an exhaustive review of the literature. Appropriate variables for each element support author’s perspective. Though neither these elements nor the variables are exhaustive, yet they hold utmost relevance to enhance employee engagement in the time of the global pandemic.

Steam System Load Shedding Operational Analysis Using Dynamics Simulation of a Fertilizer Plant

Steam system operation of a fertilizer plant can be complex due to high number of equipment, unavailable redundancy of steam suppliers and inter-dependency behaviour between steam users. The plant is subjected to partial or total shutdown whenever one boiler trips as both existing boilers are operating close to design capacity. Installation of an additional boiler will provide additional capacity margin in the event of one boiler trips. iCON(Symmetry) was used as the dynamic process simulation tool to establish proper management for load shedding activity with three boilers in operation. Model was developed for the integrated steam header, fuel gas and boiler feed water network. A detailed representation of the actual plant was achieved by incorporating plant hydraulics based on actual piping configurations, high fidelity equipment modelling, process control configurations, trip sequencing and operator manual interventions. This approach gives high accuracy in replicating the plant’s transient behaviour for load shedding case studies. The case studies prove the three boiler arrangement is able to sustain the plant’s continuous operation. An operational strategy was developed to minimize the impact of equipment trips. It is recommended to expand the model to include the process side to represent the actual plant behaviour with higher accuracy.

483. OPAT Delivery during COVID-19

BackgroundIn 2020, COVID-19 spurred unprecedented change in the delivery of routine clinical care. The UNC OPAT program staff, previously accustomed to in-person collaboration in the hospital, became geographically distant amid North Carolina’s partial shutdown starting in March 2020. Team members relied on teleworking and many OPAT clinic visits shifted to phone and video telehealth. We assessed how COVID-19 impacted our care of OPAT patients including follow-up visits and readmissions.MethodsUNC’s OPAT database contains clinical and demographic information on all patients on OPAT for at least 14 days who received specialized monitoring program led by an infectious diseases (ID) pharmacist, after evaluation by an ID physician. For all OPAT courses that ended between 3/1/20 and 5/20/20 (last available data cut), we assessed the length of OPAT treatment course, readmissions, adverse events, follow-up ID clinic visits, and the method of follow up visit utilized. We compared these measurements to historical baseline data from 3/1/19 to 5/20/19.ResultsDuring the 2020 period, 73 patients completed OPAT, with median OPAT enrollment lasting 36 days, which was similar to 2019 data (70 patients; median OPAT enrollment of 35 days). During the 2019 period, 93% of patients attended a follow up visit with an infectious diseases clinician, all of which took place in person. During the 2020 (COVID-19) period, 85% of patients attended an ID follow up visit; contrary to 2019, 42% of these visits took place in person, 45% were by phone and 13% were via a telemedicine video service. Readmission rates were similar across the two time periods (16% during COVID-19 vs 14% during 2019 comparison time period, P=0.72).ConclusionUNC OPAT continued through the emergence of COVID-19 as an essential service for a high patient volume by adapting its care delivery and follow-up visit protocols to include virtual care options. Readmission rates for OPAT patients during COVID-19 were comparable to historical baseline data.Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Online Academics in Pakistan: COVID-19 and Beyond.

COVID-19 is a menace for Pakistan’s fragile and overburdened health care system and infrastructure, insidiously permeating the socio-economic fabric. Globally complete to partial shutdown of educational institutions has been enforced, transitioning from face to face to online academics. Academic institutes are floundering to withstand the brunt. Therefore, the current study was conducted to attempt to review and highlight the impact and challenges posed by transition from conventional to online academics and how to approach them, in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic with the perspective of developing countries like Pakistan. For this purpose, search for relevant literature using search engines and websites including Google, Google Scholar and Web of Science as well as Medline database was conducted with keywords “Covid-19, academics, mental health, social impact and e-learning and combination of words”. Thirty two English language, full text articles published in the last ten years from 2010 to 2020 were selected for the literature review. With this literature review, we conclude that this lockdown has caused significant distortion in the academic world yet unequal interruption in learning with significant disruptions in internal assessments and qualification examinations with developing countries like Pakistan, compounded by a compromised educational system. However, COVID-19 is spurring the case for conversion to online academics and developing countries like Pakistan are poised to develop reliable, cost effective and secure online academic system whether it is bane or boon.

Shared Resource Laboratory Operations: Changes Made During Initial Global COVID-19 Lockdown of 2020.

Undoubtedly, the global pandemic caused by the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus has had a significant impact on Shared Resource Laboratories (SRL) operations worldwide. Unlike other crises (e.g., natural disasters, acts of war, or terrorism) which often result in a sudden and sustained cessation of scientific research usually affecting one or two cities at a time, this impact is being seen simultaneously in every SRL worldwide albeit to a varying degree. The alterations to SRL operations caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic can generally be divided into three categories: (1) complete shutdown, (2) partial shutdown, and (3) uninterrupted operations. In many cases, SRLs that remained partially or fully operational during the initial wave of global infections saw a concurrent increase in COVID‐19‐related research coming through their facilities. This forced SRLs to make rapid adjustments to core operations at the same time as infectious disease experts were still developing recommendations for the safety of frontline medical workers. Although many SRLs already had contingency plans in place, this pandemic has highlighted the importance of having such plans for continuity of service, if possible, during a crisis. Immediate changes have occurred in the way SRLs operate due to potential virus transmission and in line with this new “Best Practices” have been established, that is,social distancing, remote working, and technology‐based meetings and training. Many of these changes are likely to be in place for some time with the threat of further waves of infections toward the end of 2020 and into 2021. Some of these best practices, such as having many training resources recorded and available online, are likely to remain long‐term. Although many changes have been made in haste, these will alter the future operations of SRLs. In addition, we have learnt how to deal with future crises that may be encountered in the workplace. © 2020 The Authors. Cytometry Part A published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. on behalf of International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

An incident of massive styrene monomer gas poisoning

Following a temporary and partial shutdown of the LG polymers factory for nearly 44 days due to the COVID-19 lockdown, routine maintenance of the plant was affected. At around 3 a.m. on 7May 2020, a failure of the refrigeration system and the inhibitor tank attached to the styrene storage tank, resulted in an auto polymerization reaction that caused nearly half of the 1800 tonnes styrene gas stored to leak into the atmosphere. Since the volatile organic compound detection system was defunct, no alert or alarm was raised and, driven by north easterly winds, a cloud of toxic styrene gas spread over a radius of nearly 3 km, affecting five villages in the vicinity. The pungent smell was initially mistaken by the residents as emanating from a fire accident or a COVID-19 sanitization measure in the vicinity. Following initial triage, over 350 victims were hospitalized in various hospitals. 254 symptomatic adults and 64 children were shifted to the Government King George hospital. The main symptoms were burning sensation of eyes, skin and throat, nausea, vomiting, diplopia, muscle twitching, breathlessness and loss of consciousness. Nearly 10,000 residents from five villages were evacuated to relief camps set up in the perimeter and given first aid and food. There were 11 human and 22 animal fatalities in the immediate vicinity. This incident reports the world’s first fatalities due to massive styrene poisoning

Impact of Shutdown due to COVID-19 Pandemic on Aerosol Characteristics in Kanpur, India.

Background.Since March 2020, the number of confirmed COVID-19 positive cases have steadily risen in India. Various preventive measures have been taken to contain the spread of COVID-19. With restrictions on human activities, anthropogenic emissions driving air pollution levels have seen a reduction since March 23, 2020, when the government imposed the first nationwide shutdown. The landlocked Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) has many densely-populated cities, witnessing high levels of particulate matter due to both nature-driven and anthropogenic elements. Kanpur is an urban metropolis in the IGP with high aerosol loading, and this paper explores the impact of restricted anthropogenic activities on aerosol characteristics in Kanpur.Objectives.This study aims to investigate the change in aerosol optical depth level and its related parameters during the shutdown phases in Kanpur city compared to the same time periods in 2017–2019.Methods.Aerosol optical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm, Angstrom exponent (AE), fine mode fraction (FMF) of AOD at 500 nm and single scattering albedo (SSA) at 440 nm were obtained from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) station operating in Kanpur from the 1st March to the 30th April for 2017–2020.Results.A significant decrease in aerosol loading was observed during the shutdown period compared to the pre-and partial shutdown periods in 2020 as well as during the same time periods of 2017–2019. Mean AOD, FMF and SSA were 0.37, 0.43 and 0.89, respectively, during the shutdown period in 2020. A 20–35% reduction in mean AOD levels was observed during the shutdown period in 2020 as compared to the same period in 2017–2019.Conclusions.The shutdown led to an improvement in air quality due to decreases in anthropogenic emissions. As fine particles, typically from urban and industrial emissions, dominate episodic air pollution events, this study can be further utilized by the scientific community and regulators to strengthen the emergency response action plan to check high pollution episodes in Kanpur city until cleaner technologies are in place.Competing Interests.The authors declare no completing financial interests.

Blacking out

The partial shutdown of the economy following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of measurements of economic activity that are available with a short lag and at high frequency. The consumption of electricity turns out to be a valuable proxy, if it is corrected for influences from calendar and weather. Indeed, this proxy suggests that we are currently facing one of the deepest recessions ever.

Modeling of asphaltene deposition during oil/gas flow in wellbore

Asphaltene deposition occurs in production lines and leads to a reduction in the production rate due to the contraction of the area. Besides, remedies to treat the deposition costs the industry a high expenditure because of the chemical and the physical removal techniques that may require a partial shutdown of the system. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately predict the rate of deposition to assist in minimizing and controlling this issue. To do so, factors contributing to the precipitation and deposition of asphaltenes must be accounted for, especially pressure and temperature. However, most models available in the literature assume a single-phase flow scenario to predict the thickness of asphaltene, which may lead to some discrepancies. Predicting pressure and temperature gradients in the wellbores during multi-phase flow using single-phase assumptions may cause a significant margin of error. In this study, a robust model is developed to predict the pressure, temperature, and asphaltene deposition simultaneously during multiphase flow in wellbores. The model predicts these variables with an acceptable margin of error when verified against experimental data available in the literature. It predicted the pressure against experimental data with a root-mean-square error of less than 1 psi for various flow patterns and the temperature profile with a root-mean-square error of 0.58 °F. Furthermore, a detailed analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of flow pattern, time, and gas flow rate on the thickness of the deposited layer of asphaltenes.

Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

To slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries are shutting down non-essential sectors of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper, we build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age (young and retired), by sector (basic and luxury), and by health status. Disease transmission occurs in the workplace, in consumption activities, at home, and in hospitals. We study the optimal economic mitigation policy of a utilitarian government that can redistribute across individuals, but where such redistribution is costly. We show that optimal redistribution and mitigation policies interact, and reflect a compromise between the strongly diverging preferred policy paths of different subgroups of the population. We find that the shutdown in place on April 12 is too extensive, but that a partial shutdown should remain in place through July.

Methodology for Analysis of Electric Distribution Network Criticality Due to Direct Lightning Discharges

Direct lightning discharges in overhead distribution networks invariably cause serious insulation damage, frequently leading to the electric system’s partial or total shutdown. Installing lightning arresters can be very effective, and it is commonly used to minimize this problem; however, considering that typically, electric distribution grids exhibit a very large number of electrical nodes, the massive use of lightning arresters may not be economically viable. In this way, this article proposes a methodology for allocating lightning arresters that can significantly reduce the number of lightning arresters installed, but at the same time maintaining an adequate protection level for the distribution grid. The proposed methodology, named Direct Discharge Crossing (DDC), analyzes the network criticality based on two main factors, which are the overvoltage magnitudes and the number of flashovers provoked by lightning discharges, and defines a feeder lightning performance function that is used to indicate the recommended location for lightning arresters’ installation. The simulation studies are accomplished using the IEEE 34 bus distribution grid and ATP software to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed solution, which is confirmed by the results presented.

Mining machinery and environmental regulations of countries worldwide

The purpose of the work is to analyze the problems of using mining machines with diesel engines, the exhaust gases of which have a harmful effect on human health and the environment. Research methodology. The environmental problems arising from the use of mining machines, and environmental standards governing the use of diesel engines in different countries of the world are analyzed. Results. Environmental protection is one of the most important problems of humanity, since people’s lives, their health and well-being depend on its solution. The mining industry operates a huge amount of equipment with diesel engines: mining trucks, excavators, drilling rigs and other mining machines. Engine exhaust fumes contain toxic elements that have a significant impact on human health and the environment. The gas pollution of the working atmosphere entails the need to stop the quarry, and the deterioration of visibility on the highway also causes a partial or complete shutdown of the equipment until the content of harmful substances in the air drops to normal. Today, environmental requirements for a car engine are priority, so the global engine industry is aimed not only at increasing their performance, but also at significantly improving their environmental performance. The problem of air pollution by harmful substances contained in the exhaust of diesel engines is becoming global. To solve it requires the joint efforts of many countries. International conventions and the adoption of relevant standards serve as a tool for rapprochement in this area. Conclusions. Most countries in Europe, Asia and America are guided by similar standards for the content of harmful substances in exhaust gases. The EU in this regard is a kind of authority: it most often updates these indicators and implements strict legal regulation. Other countries are following this trend and are also updating emission standards.

Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

To slow COVID-19, many countries have shut down part of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have most to lose. In this paper, we build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age (young, retired), by sector (basic, luxury), and health status. Disease transmission occurs in the workplace, through consumption, at home, and in hospitals. We study the optimal economic mitigation policy for a government that can redistribute across individuals, but where redistribution is costly. Optimal redistribution and mitigation policies interact, and more modest shutdowns are optimal when redistribution is more costly. We find that the shutdowns that were implemented in mid-April were too extensive, but a partial shutdown should remain in place through the fall. A deeper and longer shutdown is preferred if a vaccine is imminent.

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19): Invoking Force Majeure and Doctrine of Frustration: An Analysis From an Indian Law Perspective

The on-going global Coronavirus disease (“COVID-19”) pandemic, has affected a countless number of people around the world, businesses, and the global economies alike and is certainly nothing short of a ticking time bomb. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic after noting that COVID-19 has increased 13-fold in countries other than China. A few state governments in India have also termed COVID-19 as an epidemic. In testing times like these, India, currently amidst an unprecedented nationwide lock-down, which has subsequently been extended until May 3, 2020 and has resulted in a temporary or partial shutdown of most business(es)-in India—whether they be small, medium or big business houses, with the exception of only a list of services notified by the relevant governmental authorities which have been deemed to be and are categorized as ‘essential services’ and allowing functioning of select additional activities (such as allowing manufacturing activities in certain sectors to take place), which have also only been permitted to start from April 20, 2020.

Partial Shutdown Led to Increased Community Awareness

Nonprofit Communications ReportVolume 17, Issue 12 p. 4-4 Case Studies Partial Shutdown Led to Increased Community Awareness First published: 13 November 2019 https://doi.org/10.1002/npcr.31344Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume17, Issue12December 2019Pages 4-4 RelatedInformation