Different Spreading Dynamics Throughout Germany During the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Link to Public Health Interventions

Abstract

Background: The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial differences in incidence rates across Germany. Methods: Assumption-free k-nearest neighbour clustering from the principal component analysis of weekly incidence rates of German counties groups similar spreading behaviour. Different spreading dynamics was analysed by the derivative plots of the temporal evolution of tuples [x(t),x’(t)] of weekly incidence rates and their derivatives. The effectiveness of the different shutdown measures in Germany during the second wave is assessed by the difference of weekly incidences before and after the respective time periods. Findings: The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions of different extents resulted in four distinct time periods of complex, spatially diverse, and age-related spreading patterns during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Clustering gave three regions of coincident spreading characteristics. October 2020 showed a nationwide exponential growth of weekly incidence rates with a doubling time of 10 days. A partial shutdown during November 2020 decreased the overall infection rates by 20–40% with a plateau-like behaviour in northern and southwestern Germany. The eastern parts exhibited a further near-linear growth by 30–80%. Allover the incidence rates among people above 60 years still increased by 15–35% during partial shutdown measures. Only an extended shutdown led to a substantial decrease in incidence rates. These measures decreased the numbers among all age groups and in all regions by 15–45%. This decline until January 2021 was about -1∙25 times the October 2020 growth rates with a strong correlation of -0∙96. Interpretation: Three regional groups with different dynamics and different degrees of effectiveness of the applied measures were identified. The partial shutdown was moderately effective and at most stopped the exponential growth, but the spread remained partly plateau-like and regionally continued to grow in a nearly linear fashion. Only the extended shutdown reversed the linear growth.Funding Statement: Institutional support and physical resources were provided by the University Witten/ Herdecke and Kliniken der Stadt Köln, German ministry of education and research ‘Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin’ (NUM), egePan Unimed (01KX2021).Declaration of Interests: Dr. Karagiannidis reports personal fees from Maquet, personal fees from Xenios, personal fees from Bayer, non-financial support from Speaker of the German register of ICUs, grants from German Ministry of Research and Education, during the conduct of the study. Dr. Schuppert reports grants from Bayer AG, outside the submitted work. Dr. Jens Karschau has nothing to disclose. Dr. Polotzek has nothing to disclose. Dr. Schmitt reports personal fees from Sanofi, Lilly, ALK, Novartis, grants from Sanofi, Pfizer, ALK, Novartis, outside the submitted work. Dr. Busse reports grants from Berlin University Alliance, non-financial support from German Federal Ministry of Health, during the conduct of the study.