Parity Progression Ratios Research Articles

Investigating the relationship between spousal violence against women and total fertility rate in Afghanistan

Backgroundspousal violence against women (SVAW) is a common form of violence that occurs within the family context, with spouses being the main perpetrators. Afghanistan has one of the highest rates of SVAW in the world, and its impact on reproductive health and fertility is not well understood. This study aims to investigate the extent to which SVAW influences the total fertility rate (TFR) of Afghan women.MethodsIn this study, a regression model of discrete-time survival models was used to calculate the total fertility rate (TFR), parity progression ratio (PPRs), and average closed birth intervals (CBI) between two children. The method used in this study has its roots in the works of Griffin Finney (1983) and was further developed by Redford et al. (2010). The study population utilized the 2015 Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey, and sample weights were used to ensure accurate estimates for the population of Afghanistan as a whole.ResultsThe study found that women in Afghanistan who have experienced SV are more likely to progress to the next parity, start childbearing faster, and continue to do so. Women who have not experienced SV tend to progress to higher parities at a slower pace during their initial reproductive years. The study also suggests that women with spousal violence (SV) experience may have slightly higher fertility rates and shorter birth intervals for certain birth orders, although the differences between the two groups are generally small. Specifically, the total fertility rate (TFR) for women who experienced SV was 6.9, while the TFR for women who did not experience SV was 6.2.ConclusionsThese results provide valuable information for policymakers and public health professionals in developing effective policies and programs to address SVAW and improve maternal and child health outcomes in Afghanistan.

The continuing decline in cohort fertility and mixed evidence of narrowing educational differences

Background Typically, women with higher levels of education have had fewer children and were more likely to be childless compared to those with lower levels of education. However, in recent years, there has been a trend of fertility convergence between education levels in several high-income countries, including Australia. New data are needed to determine whether this trend has continued and fertility remains educationally stratified among Australian women.
 Aims Using the latest available data from the 2021 Australian Census, the aim of this study is to compare the average completed fertility and number of children ever born of women born between 1952 and 1981, with a specific focus on how these metrics vary by education level.
 Data and methods Data on the number of children ever born are sourced from the 2021 Australian Census to compute population statistics (completed cohort fertility, proportion of women by parity, and parity progression ratios) for six educational categories (postgraduate, graduate, bachelor, diploma, year 12, year 11 and below) and six cohort groups (1952-56, 1957-61, 1962-66, 1967-71, 1972-76, 1977-81). These statistics are used to describe trends in fertility patterns over time and by education.
 Results Completed cohort fertility has continued to decline slowly, from 2.22 for the1952-56 birth cohorts to 1.89 for the 1977-81 birth cohorts, mostly due to an increase in childlessness and a decrease in larger families with more than two children. There has been more divergence than convergence by education level, with those with bachelor's or diploma qualifications experiencing greater declines in fertility than any other education group. Although childlessness rates by education level have converged, women with lower education have also become increasingly likely to have larger families.
 Conclusions While there is evidence of convergence in childlessness rates across different levels of education, the gap in fertility rates between education groups continue to increase in Australia.

Parity Progression Ratio Dynamics, Determinants, and Policy Approaches: A Study in Isfahan in 2020

Background and aims: The fertility trend in Isfahan, as in other parts of the country, has decreased significantly in recent years. This study aimed to investigate the parity progression ratio (PPR) and factors affecting fertility. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study that was conducted using a researcher-made questionnaire. Moreover, the study method was a survey, and the sample size included 662 married women aged 15 to 49 years. The study also employed a multi-stage cluster sampling method. Results: The results revealed that the cumulative fertility rate ((CFR=1.5) has decreased in Isfahan. There was also a significant relationship between the number of children with abortion (P=0.001), education (P=0.000), and employment of women (P=0.02). The results of multivariate regression with the control of women’s job type also indicated that the variables of the age of marriage and literacy of women (r=0.355, P<0.05) in householders, age of marriage (r=0.286, P=0.00) in unemployed, and literacy of women (r=0.336, P=0.016) in employed women have the highest explanation in childbearing. Conclusion: To increase fertility and childbearing, more attention should be paid to economic issues, inflation reduction, and employment rise so that we can witness an increase in marriage, followed by childbearing to the level of succession. The best way to maintain the level of substitution is the full and comprehensive implementation of population policies and the implementation of adaptive policies appropriate to the level of fertility.

Fertility by parity in China in the context of changing fertility policy

The study aims to investigate the dynamics of fertility by parity of Chinese women over the past seven decades under the context of changing fertility policy. Using data from population censuses, population sample surveys, and fertility surveys in China, the study estimates China’s fertility by parity from 1949 to 2020 by adopting multiple fertility measures, including parity-specific total fertility rate, parity progression ratio, parity-progression-ratio-based total fertility rate, and cumulated cohort fertility rate, as well as the decomposition method. The study further evaluates the unique features of China’s configuration of parity-specific fertility through an international comparative analysis of some Western countries based on data from the Human Fertility Database. It shows that in China, both the rigid fertility policy of restricting the number and timing/spacing of children implemented since the early 1980s and the recent relaxation of fertility policy of gradually easing the number and timing/spacing of children have had a significant impact on fertility patterns and levels, especially for parity two. However, the effect of fertility policy relaxation in a low-fertility context has been less sustainable than the earlier rigid fertility policy that contributed to the rapid decline in fertility for second and higher orders of parity. Under the joint influence of the Confucian fertility culture, rapid socioeconomic growth, and the internalization of long-standing strict fertility policies, China has formed a unique pattern of parity-specific fertility profile compared to those of some developed societies, with a universal progression to the first birth, a very low but policy sensitive progression to the second birth, and an extremely low progression to the third birth.

The interplay of race/ethnicity and education in fertility patterns

This study examines the interplay between race/ethnicity and educational attainment in shaping completed fertility in the United States for women born 1961–80. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth, 2006–17, we apply multilevel, multiprocess hazard models to account for unobserved heterogeneity and to estimate (1) cohort total fertility rates, (2) parity progression ratios, and (3) parity-specific fertility timing, for non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic women by educational attainment. We find that compared with their white counterparts, fertility was higher among Black and Hispanic women with less than high school education. However, among college-educated women, fertility levels were lowest among Black women and highest among Hispanic women. The difference in fertility between college-educated Black and white women is driven mainly by the smaller proportion of Black mothers having second births. We find little evidence that the observed racial/ethnic disparities in fertility levels by educational attainment are driven by differences in fertility timing.

The role of cohorts in the understanding of the changes in fertility in Czechia since 1990

This article presents a detailed analysis of the fertility changes in Czechia since 1990 using the cohort approach and contributes to the overall understanding of the fertility postponement process. Because the timing of childbearing since 1990 has changed significantly, particular attention is devoted to the differences in the timing of fertility between cohorts. Data from the Human Fertility Database was analyzed via both standard (based on age-specific fertility rates) and advanced methods (postponement and recuperation indicators, parity progression ratio). Four groups of cohorts with specific fertility patterns were identified: 1965–1970, 1971–1976, 1977–1982, and 1983–1990. These groups were impacted by the political, economic and social transformation of the 1990s, the financial crisis of 2008–2012 and other socio-economic changes during the study period in different ways. While the 1965–1970 cohort was associated with the rapid occurrence of postponement, it still reflected the early fertility pattern. The 1971–1976 cohort was associated with the most intensive degree of postponement, the 1977–1982 cohort can be linked to the onset of the deceleration of the postponement process, and the 1983–1990 cohort appears to be the first to stabilize their fertility at later ages.

Disparities in Gender Preference and Fertility: Southeast Asia and Latin America in a Comparative Perspective.

A preference for sons and a sex selection against females are widespread in vast regions of the world, including a great number of Asian and East European countries. However, while a robust son bias has been widely studied in several countries of these regions, much less attention has been given to other regions, such as Latin America. The aim of this paper is to compare gender preferences in twelve selected countries of Southeast Asia and Latin America at the beginning of the 21st century by calculating to what extent parents adapt their fertility behaviors to ensure the birth of a preferred sex. Using census data from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-International (IPUMS-I), derived mostly from the 2010 round, we compute parity progression ratios with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and estimate Cox regressions to include control variables. The results focus on the probability of having a third child and show that a mixed composition of children (one boy and one girl) is the most widespread preference, except in Vietnam, where a heavy son preference can still be observed. The least preferred outcome varies between regions and countries, but it is most often two daughters.

Razlike u kohortnom fertilitetu prema migracijskom obilježju: slučaj Grada Zagreba

Razlike u kohortnom fertilitetu prema migracijskom obilježju: slučaj Grada Zagreba

The Association between Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes and Cohort Fertility: Evidence from Brazil

Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) aims to combat poverty and social inequalities through monetary transfers to families. A much-discussed indirect effect of the programme was its correlation to the fertility of the beneficiary families. In this paper, we use a cohort fertility approach with parity progression ratios that differs from existing literature, which mainly used period fertility measures, to better understand the relationship between fertility and the BFP. This study analyses the relationship between the BFP and the reproduction of Brazilian women. We use data from the 2010 Brazilian micro-censuses, the only census after the start of the BFP in 2004, to reconstruct the childbirth history of women with incomplete reproductive cycles (women aged 25 to 29), and estimate parity progression ratios (PPRs) and cohort fertility rates (CFR). In addition, we estimate propensity score matching (PSM) models comparing fertility outcomes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the programme. Our results show distinct differences in CFRs and PPRs. On average, BFP beneficiaries had more children than women not covered by the programme. This finding remained consistent even after controlling for educational gradients and other covariates. Our empirical findings show that women opt for a “rational” strategy, where they tend to have children in more rapid succession up until three children. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not found any correlation between BFP and fertility. The results also suggest that cohort analyses may fill certain gaps left by previous studies of period fertility. This paper is one of a few that have analysed the relationship between a conditional income transfer programme and cohort measures in Brazil.

Fertility Trends in European Countries

This work is intended as an attempt to illustrate and compare the pattern of fertility in European countries: Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. It deals with the analysis of fertility trends, with an emphasis on birth by parity. Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) from the year 2016, it has considered the parameters of parity progression ratios (PPR), projected parity progression ratios (PPPR), age‑specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‑order specific fertility rates (AOSFR), and cumulated order‑specific fertility rates accordingly analysed. We have applied indicators known as the projected parity progression ratios to estimate trends of fertility. These offer a more detailed view of the family formation process than the traditional total fertility rate (TFR).

Estimation of Parity Progression Ratios from Open and Closed Birth Interval Data

Estimation of Parity Progression Ratios from Open and Closed Birth Interval Data

Parity disparity: Educational differences in Nordic fertility across parities and number of reproductive partners

Most research on trends in socio-economic fertility differences has focused on cohort total fertility and on women. This study aimed to analyse how cohort trends in parity-specific fertility differ across educational segments for men and women and what role multi-partner fertility plays in these trends. We used Finnish and Swedish register data on cohorts born in 1940–73/78. The main analyses used parity progression ratios, comparing ordinary ratios with similar ratios using births to first reproductive partners only. Among the low and medium educated, we observe strengthening parity polarization across cohorts, with increases in both childlessness and births of order three or higher, the latter largely reflecting increases in multi-partner fertility. Highly educated men and women more often have exactly two children. We demonstrate that cohort total fertility can mask significant parity-specific trends across educational groups and that changes in multi-partner fertility can play a part in cohort trends in socio-economic fertility differentials.

The Untold Story of 50 Years of Adolescent Fertility in West Africa: A Cohort Perspective on the Quantum, Timing, and Spacing of Adolescent Childbearing

AbstractAlthough recent studies examine overall fertility trends in West Africa, few using advanced demographic techniques focus on adolescents. This study explores long‐term patterns of adolescent childbearing in 12 West African countries using 51 Demographic and Health Surveys covering birth cohorts that span 54 years (1940–1994). We employ classic demographic measures as well as disaggregation by early‐ (10–14 years old), middle‐ (15–17), and late adolescence (18–19). Cohort‐based estimates of total adolescent births, parity progression ratios, and rapid repeat birth probabilities reveal little change over time. Most women begin childbearing in adolescence, the progression to additional adolescent births remains common, and the incidence of rapid repeat births is high. In recent cohorts, women exit adolescence with an average of between 0.4 (Ghana) to 1.3 (Niger) births. Contrary to common assumptions, it is women commencing motherhood in early‐ and middle‐, not later adolescence, who account for most West African adolescent fertility.

Changing Parental Leave and Shifts in Second and Third-Birth Rates in Austria

We analyse the effects of changes in parental leave regulations in Austria in 1990, 1996 and 2002 on second and third-birth rates. These changes determined both the length of parental leave and the possibility for its prolongation in case of subsequent pregnancy. We construct monthly duration and order-specific fertility rates and parity progression ratios to study both short-term shifts in period second and third-birth rates and the trends in cohort parity progression ratios among women affected by changing leave regulations. The extension of parental leave from one to two years in 1990, which created an incentive for women to have their subsequent child within 26 months, led to an immediate and marked increase in second and third-birth rates at intervals 21-26 months after the previous birth. De facto shortening of paid leave in 1996 generated a sharp increase in second and thirdbirth rates at shorter intervals of 15-20 months. Although we find clear evidence of immediate changes in birth spacing that are in line with the ‘logic’ of the new leave regulations, this discontinuity in childbearing patterns did not have any discernable impact on the overall second and third-birth cohort progression rates or on period fertility trends. As in most cases analysed for other developed countries, the main effect of the policy change was on the tempo of fertility, namely on the spacing of second and third births.

Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios

BACKGROUND: The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. Objective: We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Methods: Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Results: Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: In Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Conclusions: Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Contribution: Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates.

Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria

Short-term variations in fertility and seasonal patterns of childbearing have been of interest to demographers for a long time. Presenting our detailed study of period fertility in Austria since 1984, we discuss the problems and advantages of constructing and analysing various period fertility indicators that reflect real exposure and potentially minimise the distortions caused by changes in fertility timing. We correct monthly birth data for calendar and seasonal factors and show that seasonality of births in Austria varies by birth order. Our study reveals that the methods explicitly aimed at adjusting fertility rates for tempo distortions are not suitable for computing monthly fertility rates. However, most of the timing distortions can be eliminated when using an indicator derived from the period parity progression ratios based on birth interval distributions, termed the Period Average Parity (PAP). We illustrate the insights gained from PAP and compare it with the commonly used total fertility rates in an analysis of the recent upswing in period fertility, starting in the late 2001. This investigation will serve for establishing a monitoring of monthly fertility rates in Austria.

Estimation of Cohort Fertility Using Parity Progression Ratio

This study attempts to analyze the levels and patterns of cohort fertility in Nepal in 2016 using data on parity progression ratios (PPRs). Simple PPRs, rather than synthetic PPRs or birth history of women, are used in this study from distribution of women by age and children ever born. Data on PPRs are used from 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey to estimate cohort fertility of currently married and all women separately. Fertility is analyzed for different birth cohorts of women, specifically for birth cohorts of age groups 45-49, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years, beside overall span of reproductive ages (15-49) for different purposes. The PPRs data are employed in this study in three different ways such as PPRs itself, proportion of women with at least ‘N’ number of children ever born (CEB), and cohort fertility rates. All three measures are implied to estimate cohort fertility of both currently married and all women separately. Fertility patterns are almost similar in all the three methods and other the measures show that the level of cohort fertility is still a little higher in Nepal, although it is declining gradually over time. The completed cohort fertility is estimated at around 4 in Nepal in 2016. The contribution of this article will be to check fertility level by applying this simple, but less common, method in estimating cohort fertility.

Impaired Fertility in Women With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A National Cohort Study From Sweden.

Background and AimsInflammatory bowel disease [IBD] has been associated with reduced female fertility. We analyse fertility in a national cohort of women with IBD.MethodsFertility was assessed in women with IBD aged 15–44 years in 1964–2014, identified from the Swedish National Patient Register and a matched cohort [ratio 1:5]. Patients with indeterminate colitis or inconsistent IBD coding were classified as IBD-unclassified [IBD-U].ResultsThe cohorts included 27 331 women with IBD and 131 892 matched individuals. The fertility rate in IBD was 1.52 (standard deviation [SD] 1.22) births per 1000 person-years and 1.62 [SD 1.28] [p <0.001] in matched individuals. Fertility was impaired in all IBD subtypes compared with the matched cohort (hazard ratio Crohn’s disease [CD] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–0.91; IBD-U 0.86, 95% CI 0.83–0.89; and ulcerative colitis [UC] 0.96, 95% CI 0.93–0.98). Fertility improved during the study period for the IBD cohort except for CD. Parity progression ratio, the proportion of IBD women progressing from one parity to the next compared with the matched cohort, was decreased at all parity levels for CD and IBD-U, but only for multiparous women in UC. Contraceptive usage was higher in IBD, both before and after the diagnosis. Disease severity, bowel resections, and perianal disease in CD affected fertility negatively.ConclusionsFertility was impaired mainly in women with CD and IBD-U, and less so in UC. During the study period, fertility improved in women with UC or IBD-U. Some results suggest a role of voluntarily reduced fertility.

Cohort Fertility, Parity Progression, and Family Size in Former Yugoslav Countries

Yugoslavia was a union of countries at the crossroads of cultures, rich in diversity, bringing together heterogeneous populations with very different demographic transition pathways, particularly with respect to fertility. This paper studies the trends and patterns of cohort fertility in former Yugoslav countries, similarities and differences between the countries, and their possible clustering. Do former Yugoslav countries exhibit persistent diversity to this day, or is there convergence in terms of cohort fertility behaviour? If so, what might account for this homogeneity within Yugoslavia’s heterogeneity? We trace how fertility behaviour changed from the turn of the twentieth century, when Yugoslav countries began their progression from agrarian into industrial capitalist societies. We consider the factors related to a rapid transformation to socialist modernity after 1945 and proceed to investigate the federation’s breakup and the successor states’ transitions to market economies in the early 1990s. Our study thus covers a century of socioeconomic and fertility developments within the region. We analyse census data on children born by means of the completed cohort fertility rate, parity progression ratios, and parity composition. Our results show that while fertility levels decreased in all former Yugoslav republics, this happened at different speeds and taking different paths. Parity progression to higher birth orders was particularly responsible for this development, as well as for the differences and similarities between the respective republics. Former Yugoslav republics are clustered into three groups, where Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia form the low fertility group, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro belong to a higher fertility group. Kosovo remains a special case with exceptionally high fertility in the European context. We conclude that this clustering stems from a complex interplay of historical, political, economic and social factors.

The educational differential in fertility in transitional China: Temporal and regional variation

Background: Education expansion has contributed significantly to fertility decline during the worldwide fertility transition. Yet, it is less clear whether the educational gradient in fertility remains stable and persists in the post-transition era. In light of the rapid education expansion in many low-fertility countries, the education–fertility nexus becomes increasingly relevant to demographic and socioeconomic prospects. Objective: In this study we investigate the education–fertility relationship in China by focusing on its robustness in different socio-institutional contexts both during and after the demographic transition. Methods: We use the cohort parity progression ratios (PPRs) to unveil women’s reproduction progress over the life course. The PPRs are estimated for each educational group, jointly classified by cohort, period, place of residence, and province, using China’s census and mini-census data between 1982 and 2015. We fit multilevel models to investigate the education–fertility relationship and to explore its temporal and contextual variation. Results: We find strong empirical support for a negative association between women’s education and each of the successive PPRs in China, both during and after the course of fertility transition. Nevertheless, the strength of the relationship changes over time, particularly for second and higher order births. The education–fertility link also varies profoundly by contextual features. Contribution: This study extends the literature by exploring the potential dynamics and structural variation of the education–fertility link from demographically transitional to post-transition China. The results provide a panoramic picture of fertility change in China, and insights that lead to a better understanding of world population prospects in the post-transition era.