Abstract
This work is intended as an attempt to illustrate and compare the pattern of fertility in European countries: Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. It deals with the analysis of fertility trends, with an emphasis on birth by parity. Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) from the year 2016, it has considered the parameters of parity progression ratios (PPR), projected parity progression ratios (PPPR), age‑specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‑order specific fertility rates (AOSFR), and cumulated order‑specific fertility rates accordingly analysed. We have applied indicators known as the projected parity progression ratios to estimate trends of fertility. These offer a more detailed view of the family formation process than the traditional total fertility rate (TFR).
Highlights
Fertility analysis is a crucial subject in demography and it has attracted the atten‐ tion of many researchers
Parity progression ratio method to estimate the future trends of parity progression ratios
Based on the data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), we computed age‐specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‐order spe‐ cific fertility rates (AOSFR), parity progression ra‐ tios (PPR) and projected parity progression ratios (PPPR) for eight countries, we presented them graphical‐ ly
Summary
Fertility analysis is a crucial subject in demography and it has attracted the atten‐ tion of many researchers. Parity progression ratios (PPRs) have been one of the most frequently used demographic tools in analysing data by parity. Brass (1985) described a method of using the current distribution of age‐or‐ der specific fertility rates to estimate the future trends of parity progression ra‐ tios known as the projected parity progression ratio method. We make some ex‐post comparisons, i.e. between the ob‐ served and predicted PPR for women in different age groups and between the PPPR and completed PPR observed for women aged 49 and over in a given cal‐ endar year They allow us to assess the prediction accuracy of the modified Brass method as well as to explain future changes in the distribution of parities over a ten‐year time horizon.
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