Bias Parameters Research Articles

The hierarchical cosmic web and assembly bias

Accurate modeling of galaxy distributions is paramount for cosmological analysis using galaxy redshift surveys. However, this endeavor is often hindered by the computational complexity of resolving the dark matter halos that host these galaxies. To address this challenge, we propose the development of effective assembly bias models down to small scales, i.e., going beyond the local density dependence capturing non-local cosmic evolution. We introduce a hierarchical cosmic web classification that indirectly captures up to third-order long- and short-range non-local bias terms. This classification system also enables us to maintain positive definite parametric bias expansions. Specifically, we subdivide the traditional cosmic web classification, which is based on the eigenvalues of the tidal field tensor, with an additional classification based on the Hessian matrix of the negative density contrast. We obtain the large-scale dark matter field on a mesh with ~3.9 h -1 Mpc cell side resolution through Augmented Lagrangian Perturbation Theory. To assess the effectiveness of our model, we conduct tests using a reference halo catalogue extracted from the UNIT project simulation, which was run within a cubical volume of 1 h -1 Gpc side. The resulting mock halo catalogs, generated through our approach, exhibit a high level of accuracy in terms of the one-, two- and three-point statistics. They reproduce the reference power-spectrum within better than 2 percent accuracy up to wavenumbers k ~ 0.8 h Mpc-1 and provide accurate bispectra within the scales that are crucial for cosmological analysis. This effective bias approach provides a forward model appropriate for field-level cosmological inference and holds significant potential for facilitating cosmological analysis of galaxy redshift surveys, particularly in the context of projects such as DESI, EUCLID, and LSST.

Conway-Maxwell-Poisson profile monitoring with rk-Shewhart control chart: a comparative study

A control chart is an essential tool in Statistical Quality Control for monitoring the production process. It provides a visual means of identifying process irregularities. In this study, we focus on the Shewhart control chart based on the rk-deviance residuals, namely rk-Shewhart control charts to examine the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (COM-Poisson) profile, which is used to model the count data with varying degrees of dispersion. The primary goal of this study is to identify the biasing parameter that produces the best result among newly presented biasing parameters developed based on existing ones. It provides a short overview of the COM-Poisson distribution, its modeling, and rk parameter estimation in the case of multicollinearity, as well as the construction of the deviance-residual-based Shewhart chart. To evaluate the performance of the rk-Shewhart, we conduct an analysis using a real-life data set, considering various shift sizes. By employing different biasing parameters, we examine the effectiveness of the rk-Shewhart control chart. The performance evaluation outcomes of the rk-Shewhart charts are compared to the ML-deviance-based Shewhart chart and within themselves based on the biasing parameters. The results demonstrate the advantage of the rk-Shewhart charts over the ML-deviance-based control chart in detecting out-of-control signals. Among the considered biasing parameters, the rk-Shewhart chart utilizing the adjusted biasing parameter k_4 shows the best performance based on the ARL metric.

A bias-reduced generalized estimating equation approach for proportional odds models with small-sample longitudinal ordinal data

BackgroundLongitudinal ordinal data are commonly analyzed using a marginal proportional odds model for relating ordinal outcomes to covariates in the biomedical and health sciences. The generalized estimating equation (GEE) consistently estimates the regression parameters of marginal models even if the working covariance structure is misspecified. For small-sample longitudinal binary data, recent studies have shown that the bias of regression parameters may result from the GEE and have addressed the issue by applying Firth’s adjustment for the likelihood score equation to the GEE as if generalized estimating functions were likelihood score functions. In this manuscript, for the proportional odds model for longitudinal ordinal data, the small-sample properties of the GEE were investigated, and a bias-reduced GEE (BR-GEE) was derived.MethodsBy applying the adjusted function originally derived for the likelihood score function of the proportional odds model to the GEE, we produced the BR-GEE. We investigated the small-sample properties of both GEE and BR-GEE through simulation and applied them to a clinical study dataset.ResultsIn simulation studies, the BR-GEE had a bias closer to zero, smaller root mean square error than the GEE with coverage probability of confidence interval near or above the nominal level. The simulation also showed that BR-GEE maintained a type I error rate near or below the nominal level.ConclusionsFor the analysis of longitudinal ordinal data involving a small number of subjects, the BR-GEE is advantageous for obtaining estimates of the regression parameters of marginal proportional odds models.

Effect of fuel prices on sailing speeds in short-sea shipping

ABSTRACT In this paper, we estimate fuel price elasticities of sailing speed for general cargo vessels using data covering the Baltic Sea and Norwegian coastal areas during the years 2007–2018. To disentangle the correlation between fuel prices and freight rates arising from changes in global demand, we instrument fuel prices on price changes triggered by supply shocks. The shocks are derived from the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model proposed by Kilian (2009). In a sensitivity analysis, we use unanticipated oil supply shocks derived from oil supply outages as an alternative instrument for fuel prices. We find that disregarding the correlation between fuel prices and freight rates yields biased parameter estimates, which can partly explain the mixed results in the previous literature. Our preferred estimate for the fuel price elasticity of speed is −0.08.

A Comparison of Limited Information Estimation Methods for the Two-Parameter Normal-Ogive Model with Locally Dependent Items

The two-parameter normal-ogive (2PNO) model is one of the most popular item response theory (IRT) models for analyzing dichotomous items. Consistent parameter estimation of the 2PNO model using marginal maximum likelihood estimation relies on the local independence assumption. However, the assumption of local independence might be violated in practice. Likelihood-based estimation of the local dependence structure is often computationally demanding. Moreover, many IRT models that model local dependence do not have a marginal interpretation of item parameters. In this article, limited information estimation methods are reviewed that allow the convenient and straightforward handling of local dependence in estimating the 2PNO model. In detail, pairwise likelihood, weighted least squares, and normal-ogive harmonic analysis robust method (NOHARM) estimation are compared with marginal maximum likelihood estimation that ignores local dependence. A simulation study revealed that item parameters can be consistently estimated with limited information methods. At the same time, marginal maximum likelihood estimation resulted in biased item parameter estimates in the presence of local dependence. From a practical perspective, there were only minor differences regarding the statistical quality of item parameter estimates of the different estimation methods. Differences between the estimation methods are also compared for two empirical datasets.

Evaluation of quantitative bias analysis in epidemiological research: A systematic review from 2010 to mid-2023.

We aimed to demonstrate the use of quantitative bias analysis (QBA), which reveals the effects of systematic error, including confounding, misclassificationand selection bias, on study resultsin epidemiological studies published in the period from 2010 to mid-23. The articles identified through a keyword search using Pubmed and Scopus were included in the study. The articles obtained from this search were eliminated according to the exclusion criteria, and the articles in which QBA analysis was applied were included in the detailed evaluation. It can be said that the application of QBA analysis has gradually increased over the 13-year period. Accordingly, the number of articles in which simple is used as a method in QBA analysis is 9 (9.89%), the number of articles in which the multidimensional approach is used is 10 (10.99%), the number of articles in which the probabilistic approach is used is 60 (65.93%) and the number of articles in which the method is not specified is 12 (13.19%). The number of articles with misclassification bias model is 44 (48.35%), the number of articles with uncontrolled confounder(s) bias model is 32 (35.16%), the number of articles with selection bias model is 7 (7.69%) and the number of articles using more than one bias model is 8 (8.79%). Of the 49 (53.85%) articles in which the bias parameter source was specified, 19 (38.78%) used internal validation, 26 (53.06%) used external validationand 4 (8.16%) used educated guess, data constraintsand hypothetical data.Probabilistic approach was used as a bias method in 60 (65.93%) of the articles, and mostly beta (8 [13.33%)], normal (9 [15.00%])and uniform (8 [13.33%]) distributions were selected. The application of QBA is rare in the literature but is increasing over time. Future researchers should include detailed analyzes such as QBA analysis to obtain inferences with higher evidence value, taking into account systematic errors.

Latent class models for capturing unobserved heterogeneity in major global causes of mortality: The cases of traffic crashes and COVID-19

Existing models for correlating global mortality rates with underlying country-specific factors overlook the variations in the effects of these factors on mortality across different countries. These may arise from social, cultural, and political complexities which are usually not measurable and are therefore referred to as unobserved heterogeneity in the statistical literature. Unobserved heterogeneity leads to biased parameter estimates in the models, erroneous inferences about the effects of factors contributing to mortalities, and ultimately inefficient policies. In this paper, latent class modelling is proposed for capturing such unobserved heterogeneity on the cases of traffic mortality and COVID-19 mortality. The ‘pyramid’ model of safety management is used as a common framework for model formulation. The proposed latent class model is an extension of the Negative Binomial (NB) model used in risk epidemiology. The model is tested with data from 105 countries, retrieved from international databases, including socioeconomic, infrastructure, exposure, transport, and COVID-19 variables. The results suggest that there exist two (different) latent country classes in both causes of mortality. The probability of a country belonging to a certain latent class is a much more efficient metric of country membership than previous deterministic groupings (e.g. income or geographic). Variables such as the elderly population, the GDP per capita or the level of motorization, have different effects in different country classes; these effects are not identifiable by conventional statistical modelling. The impact of ignoring unobserved heterogeneity in country mortality modelling is shown by comparing the results with those of conventional NB models.

A meta-analysis on the effects of marker coverage, status number, and size of training set on predictive accuracy and heritability estimates from genomic selection in tree breeding

Genomic selection (GS) is increasingly used in tree breeding because of the possibility to hasten breeding cycles, increase selection intensity or facilitate multi-trait selection, and to obtain less biased estimates of quantitative genetic parameters such as heritability. However, tree breeders are aiming to obtain accurate estimates of such parameters and breeding values while optimizing sampling and genotyping costs. We conducted a metadata analysis of results from 28 GS studies totalling 115 study-traits. We found that heritability estimates obtained using DNA marker-based information for a variety of traits and species were not significantly related to variation in the total number of markers ranging from about 1500 to 116 000, nor by the marker density, ranging from about 1 to 60 markers/centimorgan, nor by the status number of the breeding populations ranging from about 10 to 620, nor by the size of the training set ranging from 236 to 2458. However, the predictive accuracy of breeding values was generally higher when the status number of the breeding population was smaller, which was expected given the higher level of relatedness in small breeding populations, and the increased ability of a given number of markers to trace the long-range linkage disequilibrium in such conditions. According to expectations, the predictive accuracy also increased with the size of the training set used to build marker-based models. Genotyping arrays with a few to many thousand markers exist for several tree species and with the actual costs, GS could thus be efficiently implemented in many more tree breeding programs, delivering less biased genetic parameters and more accurate estimates of breeding values.

SUNBIRD: a simulation-based model for full-shape density-split clustering

ABSTRACT Combining galaxy clustering information from regions of different environmental densities can help break cosmological parameter degeneracies and access non-Gaussian information from the density field that is not readily captured by the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) analyses. However, modelling these density-dependent statistics down to the non-linear regime has so far remained challenging. We present a simulation-based model that is able to capture the cosmological dependence of the full shape of the density-split clustering (DSC) statistics down to intra-halo scales. Our models are based on neural-network emulators that are trained on high-fidelity mock galaxy catalogues within an extended-ΛCDM framework, incorporating the effects of redshift-space, Alcock–Paczynski distortions, and models of the halo–galaxy connection. Our models reach sub-per cent level accuracy down to $1 \, h^{-1}\text{Mpc}$ and are robust against different choices of galaxy–halo connection modelling. When combined with the galaxy 2PCF, DSC can tighten the constraints on ωcdm, σ8, and ns by factors of 2.9, 1.9, and 2.1, respectively, compared to a 2PCF-only analysis. DSC additionally puts strong constraints on environment-based assembly bias parameters.

Bias-aware ranking from pairwise comparisons

Human feedback is often used, either directly or indirectly, as input to algorithmic decision making. However, humans are biased: if the algorithm that takes as input the human feedback does not control for potential biases, this might result in biased algorithmic decision making, which can have a tangible impact on people’s lives. In this paper, we study how to detect and correct for evaluators’ bias in the task of ranking people (or items) from pairwise comparisons. Specifically, we assume we are given pairwise comparisons of the items to be ranked produced by a set of evaluators. While the pairwise assessments of the evaluators should reflect to a certain extent the latent (unobservable) true quality scores of the items, they might be affected by each evaluator’s own bias against, or in favor, of some groups of items. By detecting and amending evaluators’ biases, we aim to produce a ranking of the items that is, as much as possible, in accordance with the ranking one would produce by having access to the latent quality scores. Our proposal is a novel method that extends the classic Bradley-Terry model by having a bias parameter for each evaluator which distorts the true quality score of each item, depending on the group the item belongs to. Thanks to the simplicity of the model, we are able to write explicitly its log-likelihood w.r.t. the parameters (i.e., items’ latent scores and evaluators’ bias) and optimize by means of the alternating approach. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world data confirm that our method is able to reconstruct the bias of each single evaluator extremely well and thus to outperform several non-trivial competitors in the task of producing a ranking which is as much as possible close to the unbiased ranking.

Analysis of HERA data with a PDF parametrization inspired by quantum statistical mechanics

We present a determination of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton from HERA data using a PDF parametrization inspired by a quantum statistical model of the proton dynamics. This parametrization is characterised by a very small number of parameters, yet it leads to a reasonably good description of the data, comparable with other parametrizations on the market. It may thus provide an alternative to standard parametrizations, useful for studying parametrization bias and to possibly simplify the fit procedure thanks to the small number of parameters. Interestingly, the model reproduces key physical features, such as a d¯\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\bar{d}$$\\end{document} distribution larger than u¯\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\bar{u}$$\\end{document}, that HERA data alone are not able to constrain when using more flexible parametrizations. Moreover, polarized distributions are described in the model by the same parameters of the unpolarized ones, giving us the possibility of extracting both types of distributions within the same fit.

Signal-to-Noise Ratio in Estimating and Testing the Mediation Effect: Structural Equation Modeling versus Path Analysis with Weighted Composites

Mediation analysis plays an important role in understanding causal processes in social and behavioral sciences. While path analysis with composite scores was criticized to yield biased parameter estimates when variables contain measurement errors, recent literature has pointed out that the population values of parameters of latent-variable models are determined by the subjectively assigned scales of the latent variables. Thus, conclusions in existing studies comparing structural equation modeling (SEM) and path analysis with weighted composites (PAWC) on the accuracy and precision of the estimates of the indirect effect in mediation analysis have little validity. Instead of comparing the size on estimates of the indirect effect between SEM and PAWC, this article compares parameter estimates by signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which does not depend on the metrics of the latent variables once the anchors of the latent variables are determined. Results show that PAWC yields greater SNR than SEM in estimating and testing the indirect effect even when measurement errors exist. In particular, path analysis via factor scores almost always yields greater SNRs than SEM. Mediation analysis with equally weighted composites (EWCs) also more likely yields greater SNRs than SEM. Consequently, PAWC is statistically more efficient and more powerful than SEM in conducting mediation analysis in empirical research. The article also further studies conditions that cause SEM to have smaller SNRs, and results indicate that the advantage of PAWC becomes more obvious when there is a strong relationship between the predictor and the mediator, whereas the size of the prediction error in the mediator adversely affects the performance of the PAWC methodology. Results of a real-data example also support the conclusions.

Multi-tracing the primordial Universe with future surveys

The fluctuations generated by Inflation are nearly Gaussian in the simplest models, but may be non-Gaussian in more complex models, potentially leading to signatures in the late Universe. In particular, local-type primordial non-Gaussianity induces scale-dependent bias in tracers of the matter distribution. This non-Gaussian imprint in the tracer power spectrum survives at late times on ultra-large scales where nonlinearity is negligible. In order to combat the problem of growing cosmic variance on these scales, we use a multi-tracer analysis that combines different tracers to maximise any primordial signal. Previous work has investigated the combination of a spectroscopic galaxy survey with a 21 cm intensity mapping survey in single-dish mode. We extend this work by considering instead the case where the 21 cm intensity mapping survey is optimised for interferometer mode. As examples, we use two multi-tracer pairs of surveys: one at high redshift (1≤z≤2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$1\\le z\\le 2$$\\end{document}) and one at very high redshift (2≤z≤5\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$2\\le z\\le 5$$\\end{document}). The 21 cm surveys are idealised surveys based on HIRAX and PUMA. We implement foreground-avoidance filters and use detailed models of the interferometer thermal noise. The galaxy surveys are idealised surveys based on Euclid and MegaMapper. Via a simple Fisher forecast, we illustrate the potential of the multi-tracer. Our results show a ∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim $$\\end{document} 20–30% improvement in precision on local primordial non-Gaussianity from the multi-tracer. Furthermore, we investigate the effects on constraints of varying the parameter of non-Gaussian galaxy assembly bias and of varying the parameters of the intensity mapping foreground filters. We find that the non-Gaussian galaxy assembly bias parameter causes a greater change in the constraints on local primordial non-Gaussianity than the foreground filter parameters.

Modeling and Reliability Analysis of MEMS Gyroscope Rotor Parameters under Vibrational Stress.

Vibrational environments can cause drift or changes in Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) gyroscope rotor parameters, potentially impacting their performance. To improve the effective use of MEMS gyroscopes, this study introduced a method for evaluating the reliability of parameter degradation under vibration. We analyzed the working principle of MEMS gyroscope rotors and investigated how vibration affects their parameters. Focusing on zero bias and scale factor as key performance indicators, we developed an accelerated degradation model using the distributional assumption method. We then collected degradation data for these parameters under various vibration conditions. Using the Copula function, we established a reliability assessment approach to evaluate the degradation of the MEMS gyroscope rotor's zero bias and scale factor under vibration, enabling the determination of reliability for these parameters. Experimental findings confirmed that increasing stress levels lead to reduced failure times and increased failure rates for MEMS gyroscope rotors, with significant changes observed in the zero bias parameter. Our evaluation method effectively characterizes changes in the reliability of the MEMS gyroscope rotor's scale factor and zero bias over time, providing valuable information for practical applications of MEMS gyroscopes.

Probabilistic model for the gravitational wave signal from merging black holes

Parametrized models that predict the gravitational-wave (GW) signal from merging black holes are used to extract source properties from GW observations. The majority of research in this area has focused on developing methods capable of producing highly accurate, point estimate, predictions for the GW signal. A key element missing from every model used in the analysis of GW data is an estimate for how confident the model is in its prediction. This omission increases the risk of biased parameter estimation of source properties. Current strategies include running analyses with multiple models to measure systematic bias however, this fails to accurately reflect the true uncertainty in the models. In this work we develop a probabilistic extension to the phenomenological modeling workflow for nonspinning black holes and demonstrate that the model not only produces accurate point estimates for the GW signal but can be used to provide well-calibrated local estimates for its uncertainty. Our analysis highlights that there is a lack of numerical relativity (NR) simulations available at multiple resolutions which can be used to estimate their numerical error and implore the NR community to continue to improve their estimates for the error in NR solutions published. Waveform models that are not only accurate in their point-estimate predictions but also in their error estimates are a potential way to mitigate bias in GW parameter estimation of compact binaries due to unconfident waveform model extrapolations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Total Least Squares Estimation in Hedonic House Price Models

In real estate valuation using the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, subjectivity and measurement errors in the independent variables violate the Gauss–Markov theorem assumption of a non-random coefficient matrix, leading to biased parameter estimates and incorrect precision assessments. In this contribution, the Errors-in-Variables model equipped with Total Least Squares (TLS) estimation is proposed to address these issues. It fully considers random errors in both dependent and independent variables. An iterative algorithm is provided, and posterior accuracy estimates are provided to validate its effectiveness. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that TLS provides more accurate solutions than OLS, significantly improving the root mean square error by over 70%. Empirical experiments on datasets from Boston and Wuhan further confirm the superior performance of TLS, which consistently yields a higher coefficient of determination and a lower posterior variance factor, which shows its more substantial explanatory power for the data. Moreover, TLS shows comparable or slightly superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy. These results make it a compelling and practical method to enhance the HPM.

Determination of global geodetic parameters using satellite laser ranging to Galileo, GLONASS, and BeiDou satellites

The new Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) satellites, including GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou system, are equipped with Laser Retroreflector Arrays (LRA) to support Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) tracking, which contributes to the estimation of global geodetic parameters. In this study, we estimate the global geodetic parameters using the SLR observations to GNSS satellites and also investigate the effects of different data processing strategies on the estimated Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP), geocenter motion, and terrestrial scale. The results indicate that setting range bias parameters for each satellite-station pair can effectively account for the satellite-specific biases induced by LRAs, leading to smaller Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the post-fit SLR residuals. Furthermore, estimating the range biases for each satellite-station pair improves the accuracy of the estimated station coordinates and ERP. We also examine the impact of different arc lengths on the estimates of ERP, geocenter motion, and terrestrial scale. The results show that extending arc length can significantly reduce the formal error of ERP. The 7-day strategy produces the smallest RMSEs of 473 microarcseconds and 495 microarcseconds for the estimated X- and Y-component of pole coordinates, and 52 microseconds for length-of-day, respectively. However, the estimated geocenter motion is less affected by the arc length, even the shortest 1-day arc strategy can capture the seasonal variations of geocenter motion in Z component. For scale estimation, extending the arc length notably improves the accuracy of the estimated station coordinates and scale, but this advantage becomes less noticeable in longer arcs. The 7-day solution also obtains the closet scale results compared to ITRF2014, with the RMSE of 2.10 × 10–9.

Using Drift Diffusion and RL Models to Disentangle Effects of Depression On Decision-Making vs. Learning in the Probabilistic Reward Task.

The Probabilistic Reward Task (PRT) is widely used to investigate the impact of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) on reinforcement learning (RL), and recent studies have used it to provide insight into decision-making mechanisms affected by MDD. The current project used PRT data from unmedicated, treatment-seeking adults with MDD to extend these efforts by: (1) providing a more detailed analysis of standard PRT metrics-response bias and discriminability-to better understand how the task is performed; (2) analyzing the data with two computational models and providing psychometric analyses of both; and (3) determining whether response bias, discriminability, or model parameters predicted responses to treatment with placebo or the atypical antidepressant bupropion. Analysis of standard metrics replicated recent work by demonstrating a dependency between response bias and response time (RT), and by showing that reward totals in the PRT are governed by discriminability. Behavior was well-captured by the Hierarchical Drift Diffusion Model (HDDM), which models decision-making processes; the HDDM showed excellent internal consistency and acceptable retest reliability. A separate "belief" model reproduced the evolution of response bias over time better than the HDDM, but its psychometric properties were weaker. Finally, the predictive utility of the PRT was limited by small samples; nevertheless, depressed adults who responded to bupropion showed larger pre-treatment starting point biases in the HDDM than non-responders, indicating greater sensitivity to the PRT's asymmetric reinforcement contingencies. Together, these findings enhance our understanding of reward and decision-making mechanisms that are implicated in MDD and probed by the PRT.

Analysis of BOSS galaxy data with weighted skew-spectra

We present the first application of the weighted skew-spectra to analyze non-Gaussian information in galaxy survey data. Using the tree-level galaxy skew-spectra together with the one-loop power spectrum multipoles, we analyze the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) galaxy clustering data, and target our search towards the equilateral bispectrum shape of primordial non-Gaussianity. We use the Effective Field Theory model for the galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum, and account for systematic effects, such as the survey geometry. From our likelihood analysis, we find f NL equil = -34+296 -334 at 68% CL, consistent with previous works, while systematic errors from our treatment of the survey geometry lead to an unreliable estimation of f NL ortho. We further constrain the bias and counterterm parameters, while keeping the cosmology fixed to Planck 2018 values. As a check, we also validate our analysis pipeline using the Nseries simulation suite.

Effect of genetic and sex effect on genomic prediction for horn development in Nellore cattle

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of phenotypic classification of horn development, animal sex effect, and non-autosomal SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) markers on the genetic parameters and genomic prediction ability for horn development in Nellore cattle using the single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction method. The polled phenotype was evaluated in two (presence and absence of horns), three (scurs and polled offspring from a horned parent, and the polled and horned animals), and four (absence of horn, polled born to a parent with horn, scurs, and presence of horn) phenotypic categories. A total of 12 statistical models were evaluated. The variance components were estimated using the THRGIBBS1F90 software, and a threshold animal model was used for genomic prediction analyses with the single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) procedure. Accuracy, bias, and dispersion parameters were evaluated based on the linear regression (LR) method. The highest heritability (0.84) was obtained when the polled character was evaluated as a binary trait. The lowest heritability estimates (0.44 to 0.45) for horn development were obtained when the phenotype was classified into three categories. For the same horn development classification method, the heritability estimates were similar regardless of the genomic evaluated models and fixed effects included in the model. For models considering four and three phenotypic categories for horn development, the inclusion of the sex effect as a fixed effect within the CG did not improve the accuracy, bias, and dispersion of genomic predictions for horn development. Analyzing the trait with binary expression, the highest prediction accuracy was observed when the effect of sex was not included in the CG and without the SNPs in the sex chromosomes. These models displayed the highest dispersion, pointing out the low robustness of genomic prediction. In addition, models that use less than four categories to classify the horn development phenotype, with no discrimination between polled and homozygous polled displayed lower prediction ability. The inclusion of non-autosomal SNPs in the analyses for the models considering four phenotypic categories leads to an improvement in prediction accuracy in 5,26 %, bias, and dispersion reduction, 37 % and 4,55 %, respectively, compared with models that only considered autosomal SNPs. The selection using genomic information for the polled trait is feasible, and it is an alternative to obtaining polled Nellore animals. The binary coding of horn development is an unsuitable oversimplification of polled phenotype, and probably, the genetic background of horn development is more complex than previously proposed. The most adequate prediction model to evaluate the horn development in Nellore cattle was considering four phenotypic categories and including non-autosomal SNP in the analyses for genomic prediction purposes of naturally genetically polled animals. Genetic dehorning can be adopted on a large scale as a low-cost and non-invasive approach to increase the frequency of hornless animals using genomic information and mating strategies.