Model Parameters Research Articles

Minimizing the profligacy of searches with reset

We introduce the profligacy of a search process as a competition between its expected cost and the probability of finding the target. The arbiter of the competition is a parameter λ that represents how much a searcher invests into increasing the chance of success. Minimizing the profligacy with respect to the search strategy specifies the optimal search. We show that in the case of diffusion with stochastic resetting, the amount of resetting in the optimal strategy has a highly nontrivial dependence on model parameters resulting in classical continuous transitions, discontinuous transitions and tricritical points, as well as nonstandard discontinuous transitions exhibiting reentrant behavior and overhangs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers for Tuberculosis Transmission and Control in Thailand: A Modelling Approach

Tuberculosis (TB) is a regional and global bacterial illness that has been expanding and affecting individuals in every generation. An unknown percentage of asymptomatic hosts have TB, and the infection can spread while exhibiting no symptoms. These asymptomatic TB carriers, who contribute to the spread of the illness yet go mostly undetected, may make it more difficult to prevent transmission. In this study, we utilized the concept of symmetry to construct a manageable disease modelling framework for TB transmission and control. We developed a TB model to investigate the potential influence of asymptomatic carriers, symptomatic infections, and the entirety of TB prevalence on different approaches to treatment and prevention in Thailand. Annual TB incidence data from Thailand from 2000 to 2022 were used to calibrate the model parameters. We assessed the potential for reaching conflicting results about the management and spread of tuberculosis in Thailand. Our results showed that some TB strategies that were thought to be effective in reducing transmission may have the opposite impact, or that an intervention’s effectiveness might be overestimated, making it seem unfeasible in certain scenarios. For example, the objective of TB treatment, which attempts to decrease the occurrence of symptomatic TB infections, is to decrease the TB infection and propagation rates if the relative carrier (η) is less than one. Nonetheless, our results indicate that this strategy may increase the frequency of asymptomatic TB patients, symptomatic TB viral infections, and overall TB prevalence if η has been sufficiently understated. We also found that reducing only the progression rate of symptomatic TB infections cannot stop asymptomatic TB carriers and total TB prevalence, even when the relative infection of carriers (η) is less than unity. Our research provides a better understanding of the role of asymptomatic patients in spreading TB and highlights the need to accurately include bearers in models that guide Thailand’s TB control strategy.

A numerical study of deep excavations adjacent to existing tunnels: Integrating CPTU and SDMT to calibrate soil constitutive model

Accurate determination of parameters for an advanced soil constitutive model highly relies on laboratory testing, even though it is notoriously difficult to obtain undisturbed samples for soft soils. This study explores the potential use of in-situ tests, such as piezocone penetration tests (CPTU) and seismic dilatometer tests (SDMT), to estimate the constitutive model parameters. Based on a case history of a deep excavation adjacent to existing tunnels in silt/sand-dominated sediments, a calibration approach of a set of the HSSmall (Hardening Soil Model with Small Strain Stiffness) model parameters is presented, and the derived parameters are used to numerically compute the interactive responses of tunnels and deep excavations. Several comparisons against field monitoring data indicate that the numerical model with the CPTU/SDMT-interpreted HSSmall model parameters adequately reproduces observed deformation responses of deep excavations adjacent to tunnels. However, the use of laboratory tests with disturbed samples to estimate the stiffness parameters of the HSSmall model may lead to an overconservative solution. This finding supports the use of CPTU/SDMT to provide representative parameters for a range of soil layers, leading to the conclusion that tunnel linings may be beneficial to mitigate ground movements and wall deflections due to a barrier effect.

Incorporation of weather parameters in MMRC-K model for rainfall disaggregation

Incorporation of weather parameters in MMRC-K model for rainfall disaggregation

Weed Detection Algorithms in Rice Fields Based on Improved YOLOv10n

Weeds in paddy fields compete with rice for nutrients and cause pests and diseases, greatly affecting rice yield. Accurate weed detection is vital for implementing variable spraying with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for weed control. Therefore, this paper presents an improved weed detection algorithm, YOLOv10n-FCDS (YOLOv10n with FasterNet, CGBlock, Dysample, and Structure of Lightweight Detection Head), using UAV images of Sagittaria trifolia in rice fields as the research object, to address challenges like the detection of small targets, obscured weeds and weeds similar to rice. We enhanced the YOLOv10n model by incorporating FasterNet as the backbone for better small target detection. CGBlock replaced standard convolution and SCDown modules to improve the detection ability of obscured weeds, while DySample enhanced discrimination between weeds and rice. Additionally, we proposed a lightweight detection head based on shared convolution and scale scaling, maintaining accuracy while reducing model parameters. Ablation studies revealed that YOLOv10n-FCDS achieved a 2.6% increase in mean average precision at intersection over union 50% for weed detection, reaching 87.4%. The model also improved small target detection (increasing mAP50 by 2.5%), obscured weed detection (increasing mAP50 by 2.8%), and similar weed detection (increasing mAP50 by 3.0%). In conclusion, YOLOv10n-FCDS enables effective weed detection, supporting variable spraying applications by UAVs in rice fields.

Understanding Climate Change by Modeling the Earth's Atmosphere as a Well‐Stirred Tank

AbstractComing to terms with climate change by understanding climate processes and their policy implications is essential not only for climate scientists and policymakers, but also for the general public, for industrial practitioners, and for engineers, including process system engineers. We have developed a simplified linear climate model (SLCM) to enable non‐specialists to explore the essential physical and chemical processes caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Trading‐off simplicity and accuracy, achieved by calibrating model parameters using established simple climate models, the SLCM allows (i) determining the climate impact of given past and future emissions, (ii) determining the amounts of CO2 removal needed to compensate for any unavoidable emissions of CH4 and N2O from agriculture, and (iii) back‐calculating emission pathways to meet specified global warming targets.

Understanding Multi‐horizon Forecasts: Identification, Estimation and Testing

The properties of multi‐horizon forecasts are investigated by specifying and estimating a model nesting rational forecasts, as well as deviations from rationality resulting from horizon‐specific biases and idiosyncratic errors. Identification of the model's parameters is achieved by combining information on forecasts for a given point in time with different information sets, and forecasts at different points in time based on the same information set. Both sets of forecasts are used to estimate the model's parameters by generalised method of moments. A test of rationality is proposed with the twin advantages of circumventing parameter identification and boundary issues. The finite sample properties of the GMM estimator and the rationality test are also investigated. Applying the approach to US GDP growth forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the empirical results show that forecasts deviate from rationality over all forecast horizons, with the strength of the deviations from rationality increasing with the forecast horizon.

Characterization of the temporal profile of the antinociceptive effects of an intravenous bolus of ketamine using the analgesia nociception index in no-anesthetized adult patients.

An effect-site target-controlled infusion (TCI) would allow a more precise titration of intravenous analgesics effect. The analgesia nociception index (ANI) continuously monitors the analgesia/nociception balance during general anesthesia. This study aims to derive a PKPD model of ketamine antinociceptive effect using the Domino PK parameter set and the ANI response data in awake patients without other drugs affecting the ANI response. Twenty awake adult patients were prospectively studied before general anesthesia. Patients received a single intravenous bolus of ketamine 0.1mg·kg- 1, and the subsequent ANI values were recorded. An effect compartment model incorporating the Domino PK parameter set was used to characterize the time lag between ketamine plasma concentrations and the ANI response. The model was parameterized with a single parameter Ke0. An Emax pharmacodynamic model was used to fit the ANI response data. Model parameters were estimated with NONMEM® 7.5. The minimum objective function value guided the model construction. After the ketamine administration, basal ANI values increased from 38.5 ± 4.95 to a maximum of 53.5 ± 4.95 with an observed time-to-peak effect of 1.83 ± 0.74min. Modeling analysis revealed hysteresis between predicted plasma concentrations from the Domino model and observed ANI data. Hysteresis was characterized, incorporating an estimated Keo of 0.238 (CI95% 0.20-0.28) min-1 to the described PK parameters set. The developed PKPD model, using Domino's PK parameters and the ANI response data, adequately characterized the temporal profile of ketamine's antinociceptive effect. The current estimated model parameters can be used to perform an effect-site TCI of ketamine for analgesic purposes.

Software Refactoring Network: An Improved Software Refactoring Prediction Framework Using Hybrid Networking‐Based Deep Learning Approach

ABSTRACTSoftware refactoring plays a vital role in maintaining and improving the quality of software systems. The software refactoring network aims to connect developers, researchers, and practitioners to share knowledge, best practices, and tools related to refactoring. However, the network faces various challenges, such as the complexity of software systems, the diversity of refactoring techniques, and the need for automated and intelligent solutions to assist developers in making refactoring decisions. By leveraging deep learning techniques, the software refactoring network can enhance the speed, accuracy, and relevance of refactoring suggestions, ultimately improving the overall quality and maintainability of software systems. So, in this paper, an advanced deep learning–based software refactoring framework is proposed. The suggested model performs three phases as (a) data collection, (b) feature extraction, and (c) prediction of software refactoring. Initially, the data is collected from ordinary datasets. Then, the collected data is fed to the feature extraction stage, where the source code, process, and ownership metrics of all refactored and non‐refactored data are retrieved for further processing. After that, the extracted features are predicted using Adaptive and Attentive Dilation Adopted Hybrid Network (AADHN) techniques, in which it is performed using Deep Temporal Context Networks (DTCN) with a Bidirectional Long‐Short Term Memory (Bi‐LSTM) model. Here, the parameters in the hybrid networking model are optimized with the help of Constant Integer Updated Golden Tortoise Beetle Optimizer (CIU‐GTBO) for improving the prediction process. Therefore, the accuracy of the developed algorithm has achieved for different datasets, whereas it shows the value of 96.41, 96.38, 96.38, 96.38, 96.41, 96.38, and 96.39 for antlr4, junit, mapdb, mcMMO, mct, oryx, and titan. Also, the precision of the developed model has shown the better performance of 96.38, 96.32, 96.37, 96.33, 96.35, 96.37, and 96.31 for the datasets like antlr4, junit, mapdb, mcMMO, mct, oryx, and titan.

Semantic Web-Driven Targeted Adversarial Attack on Black Box Automatic Speech Recognition Systems

The susceptibility of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to adversarial attacks in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems has drawn significant attention. Most work focuses on white-box methods, but the assumption of full transparency of model architecture and parameters is unrealistic in real-world scenarios. Although several targeted black-box attack methods have been proposed in recent years, due to the complexity of ASR systems, they primarily rely on query-based approaches with limited search capabilities, leading to low success rates and noticeable noise. To address this, we propose DE-gradient, a new black-box approach using differential evolution (DE), a population-based search algorithm. Inspired by Semantic Web ideas, we introduce modulation noise to preserve semantic coherence while enhancing imperceptibility. In experiments on two public datasets, DE-gradient improved attack success rates by 19% and increased the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of silent parts from 27 dB to 54 dB, establishing a strong baseline for evaluating black-box adversarial attacks in ASR systems.

Research on National Short-Term Precipitation Forecast Method Based on Machine Learning

Abstract. Climate change is closely related to human lives. With the development of information technology, meteorological data gradually show the characteristics of big data. The purpose of this study is to compare the application effects of different machine learning models in short-term precipitation prediction, to improve the accuracy and efficiency of prediction. Based on the annual average precipitation data of prefecture-level cities in China from 1990 to 2022, this paper uses Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks to construct prediction models, and comprehensively evaluate them. In this study, the data is preprocessed to ensure the data quality of the input model. Next, the data is fed into three machine learning algorithm models, Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks. Finally, the prediction performance of each model is evaluated by various indexes. In this paper, it is found that the Random Forest model has the best performance, and its prediction accuracy is higher than the other two models, which has great application potential in the field of short-term precipitation prediction. This study shows that a reasonable selection of machine learning methods and optimization of model parameters can effectively improve the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction. This paper provides some empirical evidence for precipitation prediction, which will help to make more effective decisions in dealing with extreme weather events and climate change challenges in the future.

A highly efficient tunnel lining crack detection model based on Mini-Unet.

The accurate detection of tunnel lining cracks and prompt identification of their primary causes are critical for maintaining tunnel availability. The advancement of deep learning, particularly in the domain of convolutional neural network (CNN) for image segmentation, has made tunnel lining crack detection more feasible. However, the CNN-based technique for tunnel lining crack detection commonly prioritizes increasing algorithmic complexity to enhance detection accuracy, posing a challenge in balancing the accuracy of detection and the efficiency of the algorithm. Motivated by the superior performance of Unet in image segmentation, this paper proposes a lightweight tunnel lining crack detection model named Mini-Unet, which refined the Unet architecture and utilized depthwise separable convolutions (DSConv) to replace some standard convolution layers. In the optimization of the proposed model parameters, applying a hybrid loss function that integrated dice loss and cross-entropy loss effectively tackled the imbalance between crack and background categories. Several models were set up to contrast with Mini-Unet and the experimental results were analyzed. Mini-Unet achieves a mean intersection over union (MIoU) of 60.76%, a mean precision of 84.18%, and a frame per second (FPS) of 5.635, respectively. Mini-Unet outperforms several mainstream models, enabling rapid detection while maintaining identified accuracy and facilitating the practical application of AI power for real-time tunnel lining crack detection.

Uncertainty quantification of material parameters in modeling coupled metal and high explosive experiments

Experiments involving the coupling of metal and high explosives (HE) are of notable defense-related interest, and we seek to refine the uncertainty quantification associated with models of such experiments. In particular, our focus is on how uncertainty related to the metal constitutive model challenges our ability to infer high explosive model parameters when analyzing focused science experiments. We consider three focused experiments involving an HE accelerating metal: small plate tests with tantalum/LX-14 and tantalum/LX-17 pairings as well as a tantalum/LX-17 cylinder test. For all three models, we perform sensitivity analysis to ascertain the influence of metal strength on the coupled experimental response. Moreover, we calibrate each model in a Bayesian setting and study the quantification of metal strength on the inference of the HE parameters. Based on our results, we offer guidance for future metal/HE experiments.

Key phase diagram experiments and thermodynamic modeling of the ZnO‒B2O3, ZnO‒SiO2, and ZnO‒B2O3‒SiO2 systems

AbstractThermodynamic modeling of binary ZnO‒B2O3 and ZnO‒SiO2 systems and ternary ZnO‒B2O3‒SiO2 system were carried out based on the critical evaluation and optimization of all available phase diagram and thermodynamic property data using the CALculation of PHAse Diagram (CALPHAD) method. To resolve the inconsistency among the available phase diagram data in ternary ZnO‒B2O3‒SiO2 system, key phase diagram experiment was carried out using classical quenching method followed by electron probe micro‐analysis and X‐ray diffraction phase determination. The liquid oxide solution was described using the modified quasichemical model accounting for a short‐range ordering behavior in molten oxide solution. Thermodynamic models with optimized model parameters were used to predict the phase diagram and thermodynamic properties of the ternary systems.

A Visco-Elasto-Plastic Constitutive Law for Deformation Prediction of High Concrete Face Rockfill Dams

Deformation predictions in high Concrete Face Rockfill Dams tend to underestimate observed settlements due to scale effect and breakage phenomena that cannot be adequately captured by laboratory tests. This paper presents a Visco-Elasto-Perfectly Plastic (VEPP) model for predicting deformations in high Concrete Face Rockfill Dams (CFRDs) that addresses these challenges incorporating explicitly key rockfill parameters like grain size and post-compaction porosity, which influence both the non-linear elastic and plastic behaviors of rockfill. The VEPP model enables deformation prediction while using standard laboratory test results. The model’s effectiveness was demonstrated through its application to the 233 m high Shuibuya Dam, the tallest CFRD in the world. The VEPP model predictions closely align with observed deformations throughout the dam’s construction, impoundment, and early operational stages. By using physically meaningful parameters, the model reduces the uncertainty associated with the empirical assessment of model parameters using back-analysis from similar projects. While the VEPP model offers improved predictive accuracy, particularly during early design phases, further advancements could be achieved by refining the creep formulation and accounting for grain size evolution during construction. This approach has the potential to optimize the design and construction of future high CFRD construction.

Parameter estimation for allometric trophic network models: A variational Bayesian inverse problem approach

Abstract Differential equation models are powerful tools for predicting biological systems, capable of projecting far into the future and incorporating data recorded at arbitrary times. However, estimating these models' parameters from observations can be challenging because numerical methods are often required to approximate their solution. An example of such a model is the allometric trophic network model, for which studies considering its inverse problem are limited, particularly in the Bayesian framework. Here we develop a variational Bayesian method for parameter inference of the allometric trophic network model and explore how accurately we can recover its parameter values. We represent the model as a Bayesian neural network, which combines an artificial neural network with Bayesian inference, using a surrogate for the posterior distribution of model parameters, and train this model by evolutionary optimization to avoid potentially costly computation of the gradient with respect to the model parameters. Using synthetic data, we compare the accuracy of this variational inference to ordinary least squares estimation. To reduce the number of estimated parameters, we focus on the inference of functional response parameters. Our variational Bayesian method yields parameter estimates that are comparable to the ordinary least squares results in terms of accuracy. The method provides a promising approach for including uncertainty quantification in parameter estimation, which the simple ordinary least squares approach as it is does not address. Regardless of the method, potential multimodality of the inference problem is nonetheless important to keep in mind. The present study suggests a technique for parameter inference of ordinary differential equation models in the Bayesian context. We propose the method especially for validation of the allometric trophic network model against empirical data.

The Effect of Different Construct Operationalizations, Study Duration, and Preprocessing Choices on Power-Based Sample Size Recommendations in Intensive Longitudinal Research.

To shed light on the dynamics of psychological processes, researchers often collect intensive longitudinal (IL) data by asking people to repeatedly report on their momentary experiences in daily life. Two important decisions when designing an IL study concern the number of persons and the number of measurement occasions to be included. These sample size decisions are ideally based on statistical power considerations. When conducting statistical power analysis, it is necessary to provide the value of the effect size of interest as well as of all other model parameters. In IL research, these values have to be based on previous studies. This implies that these values are subject to large heterogeneity due to differences in study design and preprocessing choices. This between-study heterogeneity can severely impact power-based sample size recommendations. In this article, we introduce an approach to investigate the impact of study design and pre-processing of previous studies and to determine a recommended sample size to account for this impact. We demonstrate how to use this approach to investigate the effect of different construct operationalizations, study duration, and preprocessing choices. This approach paves the way for more thoughtful and robust sample-size decisions.

Accurate and efficient prediction of atmospheric PM1, PM2.5, PM10, and O3 concentrations using a customized software package based on a machine-learning algorithm.

Particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) pollution have been attracting increasing attention recently due to their severe harm to human health. PM and O3 are secondary pollutants, and there remain significant challenges in accurately and efficiently predicting their concentrations in the atmosphere. In this study, one-year monitoring data of PM1, PM2.5, PM10, and O3 concentrations as well as meteorological parameters and concentrations of various precursors (i.e., nitrogen oxides, SO2, CO, alkanes, aldehydes, and ketones) are obtained at a monitoring site in central China's Hunan province. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting model is trained and tested to achieve efficient and accurate predictions of the concentrations of the four pollutants. The effects of different datasets, input features, and model parameters on the prediction accuracy are investigated. Principal component analysis is employed to further reduce the dimensions of features, increasing the prediction efficiency. Finally, all model training and prediction processes are incorporated in an executable application using the PyQt5 framework to build a user interface. The customized software supports user-defined modeling. The software can simultaneously predict PM1, PM2.5, PM10, and O3 concentrations, making the prediction process convenient.

Hydrological Modeling of Krishna Upper Catchment Area of India Using Multisite Calibration and Validation of SWAT Model

Multisite calibration & validation of model reduces the uncertainty present in the model parameters and improve the SWAT model output. In the present study, an effort was made to set up SWAT model along with multisite calibration and validation for Kishna upper basin of India. A total of six gauging stations maintained by Central water commission across the area were selected for SWAT model calibration and validation. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) programme of SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Programme) was employed to calibrate the SWAT model. During sensitivity analysis of SWAT model, parameters which are highly sensitive that influences flow characteristics of different gauging station were identified. These parameters along with parameter range were used to calibration and validation of SWAT model each of the sub basins. Observed flow and predicted stream flows were compared with certain model performance indices. These indices indicated that for all six gauging stations, the SWAT model found to be very good. The performance indices like R2, NSE, RSR and PBIAS were ranged from 0.70 to 0.84, 0.67 to 0.76, 0.49 to 0.57 and -11.7 to 24.0% respectively during model calibration period and 0.70 to 0.93, 0.67 to 0.83, 0.41 to 0.58 and 8.5 to 22.9% respectively during model validation period. A good agreement between observed and simulated flows at all the gauging stations were observed. It can be concluded that SWAT model output was improved with multisite calibration and validation of the model.

Using muscle-tendon load limits to assess unphysiological musculoskeletal model deformation and Hill-type muscle parameter choice.

Musculoskeletal simulations are a useful tool for improving our understanding of the human body. However, the physiological validity of predicted kinematics and forces is highly dependent upon the correct calibration of muscle parameters and the structural integrity of a model's internal skeletal structure. In this study, we show how ill-tuned muscle parameters and unphysiological deformations of a model's skeletal structure can be detected by using muscle elements as sensors with which modelling and parameterization inconsistencies can be identified through muscle and tendon strain injury assessment. To illustrate our approach, two modelling issues were recreated. First, a model repositioning simulation using the THUMS AM50 occupant model version 5.03 was performed to show how internal model deformations can occur during a change of model posture. Second, the muscle material parameters of the OpenSim gait2354 model were varied to illustrate how unphysiological muscle forces can arise if material parameters are inadequately calibrated. The simulations were assessed for muscle and tendon strain injuries using previously published injury criteria and a newly developed method to determine tendon strain injury threshold values. Muscle strain injuries in the left and right musculus pronator teres were detected during the model repositioning. This straining was caused by an unphysiologically large gap (12.92 mm) that had formed in the elbow joint. Similarly, muscle and tendon strain injuries were detected in the modified right-hand musculus gastrocnemius medialis of the gait2354 model where an unphysiological reduction of the tendon slack length introduced large pre-strain of the muscle-tendon unit. The results of this work show that the proposed method can quantify the internal distortion behaviour of musculoskeletal human body models and the plausibility of Hill-type muscle parameter choice via strain injury assessment. Furthermore, we highlight possible actions to avoid the presented issues and inconsistencies in literature data concerning the material characteristics of human tendons.