Parametric Model Research Articles

Transitioning from the University to the Workplace: A Duration Model with Grouped Data

Labor market surveys usually measure unemployment duration in time intervals. In these cases, traditional duration models such as Cox regression and parametric survival models are not suitable for studying the duration of unemployment spells. In order to deal with this above issue, we use Han and Hausman’s ordered logit model for grouped durations, which has more flexibility than standard specifications. In particular, its flexibility arises from the fact that we do not need to specify any functional form for the baseline hazard function—it also circumvents problems associated with heterogeneity. The focus of interest is on the first unemployment duration of higher education graduates. The analysis is accomplished by using a large dataset from a graduate survey of Spanish university graduates. The results show that the university-to-work transition of higher education graduates is significantly associated with the graduate’s age, participation in internship programs, field of study, type of university, and gender. Specifically, graduates who participated in internship programs, engineering graduates, and graduates from private universities experience a smooth transition.

Impact of Incorporating Community Smells with Object-Oriented Metrics to Predict Change-Prone Classes

Change-proneness is an important quality attribute that can help developers to maintain source code more effectively. Change-prone classes refer to those classes which are more likely to change across releases. Existing approaches have used object-oriented metrics to predict change-prone classes. However, community smells related information, which represents the communication issues among developers’ community, has not yet been considered to predict change-prone classes. This study investigates the impact of including community smells-related information with existing Object Oriented (OO) metrics to predict a class to be change-prone in future software releases. It aims to understand the extent to which the addition of community smell-related information can contribute to the performance of change prediction models. To perform analysis, 317 releases of 14 open-source Java projects were selected from GitHub. The resulting dataset is used to predict change-prone classes with five different popular and widely used machine learning algorithms, namely K-nearest neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). To evaluate the performance of the classifiers, accuracy, and F1-measure are used. The experimental results suggest that including community smell metrics along with the existing OO metrics gives better performance in predicting change-prone classes. Moreover, MLP and LR algorithms, which are both parametric models, are found to predict change-prone classes better when Community Smell(CMS) related features are incorporated, in comparison with other non-parametric models. By including CMS along with OO metrics, 1.51% increase in average accuracy and 3.52% increase in average F1 score for Logistic Regression, and 1.69% increase in average accuracy and 3.26% increase in average F1 score for Multi-layer Perceptron have been found. DUJASE Vol. 8 (1) 32-41, 2023 (January)

Reliability of dynamic causal modelling of resting-state magnetoencephalography.

This study assesses the reliability of resting-state dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of magnetoencephalography (MEG) under conductance-based canonical microcircuit models, in terms of both posterior parameter estimates and model evidence. We use resting-state MEG data from two sessions, acquired 2 weeks apart, from a cohort with high between-subject variance arising from Alzheimer's disease. Our focus is not on the effect of disease, but on the reliability of the methods (as within-subject between-session agreement), which is crucial for future studies of disease progression and drug intervention. To assess the reliability of first-level DCMs, we compare model evidence associated with the covariance among subject-specific free energies (i.e., the 'quality' of the models) with versus without interclass correlations. We then used parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) to investigate the differences between the inferred DCM parameter probability distributions at the between subject level. Specifically, we examined the evidence for or against parameter differences (i) within-subject, within-session, and between-epochs; (ii) within-subject between-session; and (iii) within-site between-subjects, accommodating the conditional dependency among parameter estimates. We show that for data acquired close in time, and under similar circumstances, more than 95% of inferred DCM parameters are unlikely to differ, speaking to mutual predictability over sessions. Using PEB, we show a reciprocal relationship between a conventional definition of 'reliability' and the conditional dependency among inferred model parameters. Our analyses confirm the reliability and reproducibility of the conductance-based DCMs for resting-state neurophysiological data. In this respect, the implicit generative modelling is suitable for interventional and longitudinal studies of neurological and psychiatric disorders.

ReN Human: Learning Relightable Neural Implicit Surfaces for Animatable Human Rendering

Recently, implicit neural representation has been widely used to learn the appearance of human bodies in the canonical space, which can be further animated using a parametric human model. However, how to decompose the material properties from the implicit representation for relighting has not yet been investigated thoroughly. We propose to address this problem with a novel framework, ReN Human, that takes sparse or even monocular input videos collected in unconstrained lighting to produce a 3D human representation that can be rendered with novel views, poses, and lighting. Our method represents humans as deformable implicit neural representation and decomposes the geometry, material of humans as well as environment illumination for capturing a relightable and animatable human model. Moreover, we introduce a volumetric lighting grid consisting of spherical Gaussian mixtures to learn the spatially varying illumination and animatable visibility probes to model the dynamic self-occlusion caused by human motion. Specifically, we learn the material property fields and illumination using a physically-based rendering layer that uses Monte Carlo importance sampling to facilitate differentiation of the complex rendering integral. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms recent novel views and poses synthesis methods in a challenging benchmark with sparse videos, enabling high-fidelity human relighting.

Drift versus Shift: Decoupling Trends and Changepoint Analysis

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based regularization. An over-parameterized Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM) is first applied to characterize drift. Then a weighted penalized likelihood estimator is paired with the estimated DLM posterior distribution to identify shifts. We show how Bayesian DLMs specified with so-called shrinkage priors can provide smooth estimates of underlying trends in the presence of complex noise components. However, their inability to shrink exactly to zero inhibits direct changepoint detection. In contrast, penalized likelihood methods are highly effective in locating changepoints. However, they require data with simple patterns in both signal and noise. The proposed decoupling approach combines the strengths of both, that is, the flexibility of Bayesian DLMs with the hard thresholding property of penalized likelihood estimators, to provide changepoint analysis in complex, modern settings. The proposed framework is outlier robust and can identify a variety of changes, including in mean and slope. It is also easily extended for analysis of parameter shifts in time-varying parameter models like dynamic regressions. We illustrate the flexibility and contrast the performance and robustness of our approach with several alternative methods across a wide range of simulations and application examples.

Estimation of a regular conditional functional by conditional U‐statistic regression

U‐statistics constitute a large class of estimators, generalizing the empirical mean of a random variable to sums over every ‐tuple of distinct observations of . They may be used to estimate a regular functional of the law of . When a vector of covariates is available, a conditional U‐statistic describes the effect of on the conditional law of given , by estimating a regular conditional functional . We state nonasymptotic bounds of general conditional U‐statistics and study their asymptotics too. Assuming a parametric model of the conditional functional of interest, we propose a regression‐type estimator based on conditional U‐statistics. Its theoretical properties are derived, first in a nonasymptotic framework and then in two different asymptotic regimes. Some examples are given to illustrate our methods.

Decreasing Trend Bumped Probability Distribution: its Properties, Simulations and Application

In this paper, a probability model is proposed which engaged the mathematical combination of Lindley distribution and a trigonometric component known as haversine function〖 δ〗_s. The one parameter model prototype sustains the capacity to forecast multimodal decreasing trend sinusoidal outcomes. By nomenclature, the proposed probability model is called Modified Lindley Trigonometric Distribution (MLTD). Some statistical properties studied include the hazard function, mean residual life function, moments, conditional moments and moment generating function, Bonferroni and Lorenz curve, entropy, asymptotic distribution, order statistics, and parameter estimation; where the hazard function specially features a cyclic or periodic bathtub and inverted bathtub shape in chain format. The numerical behavior of the estimates of the average bias and mean square error were examined under Monte Carlo simulation approach; and an applicative simulation is experimented to underscore the parametric behavior of MLTD in data modeling. A real life flood data is used to illustrate the essence of the development.

Numerical and Experimental Determination of Selected Performance Indicators of the Liquid Flat-Plate Solar Collector under Outdoor Conditions

The paper proposes applying an in-house mathematical model of a liquid flat-plate solar collector to calculate the collector time constant. The described model, proposed for the first time in an earlier study, is a one-dimensional distributed parameter model enabling simulations of the collector operation under arbitrarily variable boundary conditions. The model is based on the solution of energy balance equations for all collector components. The formulated differential equations are solved iteratively using an implicit difference scheme. To obtain a stable numerical solution, it is necessary to use appropriate steps of time and spatial division. These were found by comparing the results obtained from the model with the results of the analytical solution available in the literature for the transient state, which constitutes the novelty of the present study. The accuracy of the results obtained from the model was verified experimentally by comparing the measured and calculated history of the fluid temperature at the outlet of the collector. The calculation of the collector time constant is proposed in the paper as an example of the model’s practical application. The results of the time constant calculation were compared with the values obtained experimentally on the test stand. This is another novelty of the presented research. The analysed collector instantaneous efficiency was then calculated for selected outdoor conditions. The presented mathematical model can also be used to verify the correctness of the collector operation. By comparing, on an ongoing basis, the measured and calculated values of the fluid temperature at the collector outlet, conclusions can be drawn about the process of solar glass fouling or glycol gelling. The simplicity of the model and the low computational demands enable such comparisons in an online mode.

Personalized Architectural Design Under the Cooperation of Parametric Modeling

Personalized Architectural Design Under the Cooperation of Parametric Modeling

A cost modelling methodology based on machine learning for engineered-to-order products

Recent scientific studies are targeted at applying and assessing the effectiveness of Machine Learning (ML) approaches for cost estimation during the preliminary design phases. To train ML prediction models, comprehensive and structured datasets of historical data are required. This solution is inapplicable when such information is unavailable or sparse due to the lack of structured datasets. For engineered-to-order products, the number of historical records is often limited and strongly influenced by different purchasing or manufacturing strategies, thus requiring complex normalisation of such data.This method overcomes the above limitations by presenting an ML-based cost modelling methodology for the conceptual design that is applicable even when historical data are insufficient to train the prediction algorithms. The training dataset is generated through an analytical and automatic software tool for manufacturing cost estimation. Such a tool, starting from a 3D model of a product, can quickly and autonomously assess the related cost in different scenarios. An extensive and structured training dataset can be easily generated. The proposed methodology was based on CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining).Cost engineers of an Oil & Gas company used the method to develop parametric cost models for discs and spacers of an axial compressor. The solution guarantees lower error (7% vs 9%) and significant time-saving (minutes instead of hours) than estimations based on other approaches. Cost models are more comprehensive (capable of analysing different scenarios), explainable (not conceived as a black box), and self-learning (can be updated by extending the training dataset).

Driving risk identification of urban arterial and collector roads based on multi-scale data

Urban arterial and collector roads, while interconnected within the urban transportation network, serve distinct purposes, leading to different driving risk profiles. Investigating these differences using advanced methods is of paramount significance. This study aims to achieve this by primarily collecting and processing relevant vehicle trajectory data alongside driver-vehicle–road-environment data. A comprehensive risk assessment matrix is constructed to assess driving risks, incorporating multiple conflict and traffic flow indicators with statistically temporal stability. The Entropy weight-TOPSIS method and the K-means algorithm are employed to determine the risk scores and levels of the target arterial and collector roads. Using risk levels as the outcome variables and multi-scale features as the explanatory variables, random parameters models with heterogeneity in means and variances are developed to identify the determinants of driving risks at different levels. Likelihood ratio tests and comparisons of out-of-sample and within-sample prediction are conducted. Results reveal significant statistical differences in the risk profiles between arterial and collector roads. The marginal effects of significant parameters are then calculated separately for arterial and collector roads, indicating that several factors have different impacts on the probability of risk levels for arterial and collector roads, such as the number of movable elements in road landscape pictures, the standard deviation of the vehicle’s lateral acceleration, the average standard deviation of speed for all vehicles on the road segment, and the number of one-way lanes on the road segment. Some practical implications are provided based on the findings. Future research can be implemented by expanding the collected data to different regions and cities over longer periods.

Isothermal Amplification Using Temperature-Controlled Frequency Mixing Magnetic Detection-Based Portable Field-Testing Platform.

Sensitive magnetic nucleic acid (NA) detection via frequency mixing magnetic detection (FMMD) requires amplified NA samples for which a reliable temperature control is necessary. The feasibility of recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) was studied within a newly integrated temperature-controlled sensor unit of a mobile FMMD based setup. It has been demonstrated that the inherently generated heat of the low frequency (LF) excitation signal of FMMD can be utilized and controlled by means of pulse width modulation (PWM). To test control performance in a point of care (PoC) setting with changing ambient conditions, a steady state and dynamic response model for the thermal behavior at the sample position of the sensor were developed. We confirmed that in the sensor unit of the FMMD device, RPA performs similar as in a temperature-controlled water bath. For narrow steady state temperature regions, a linear extrapolation suffices for estimation of the sample position temperature, based on the temperature feedback sensor for PWM control. For any other ambient conditions, we identified and validated a lumped parameter model (LPM) performing with high estimation accuracy. We expect that the method can be used for NA amplification and magnetic detection using FMMD in resource-limited settings.

Computational biomechanics for a standing human body: Modal analysis and simulation.

We develop computational mechanical modeling and methods for the analysis and simulation of the motions of a human body. This type of work is crucial in many aspects of human life, ranging from comfort in riding, the motion of aged persons, sports performance and injuries, and many ergonomic issues. A prevailing approach for human motion studies is through lumped parameter models containing discrete masses for the parts of the human body with empirically determined spring, mass, damping coefficients. Such models have been effective to some extent; however, a much more faithful modeling method is to model the human body as it is, namely, as a continuum. We present this approach, and for comparison, we choose two digital CAD models of mannequins for a standing human body, one from the versatile software package LS-DYNA and another from open resources with some of our own adaptations. Our basic view in this paper is to regard human motion as a perturbation and vibration from an equilibrium position which is upright standing. A linear elastodynamic model is chosen for modal analysis, but a full nonlinear viscoelastoplastic extension is possible for full-body simulation. The motion and vibration of these two mannequin models is analyzed by modal analysis, where the normal vibration modes are determined. LS-DYNA is used as the supercomputing and simulation platform. Four sets of low-frequency modes are tabulated, discussed, visualized, and compared. Higher frequency modes are also selectively displayed. We have found that these modes of motion and vibration form intrinsic basic modes of biomechanical motion of the human body. This view is supported by our finding of the upright walking motion as a low-frequency mode in modal analysis. Such a "walking mode" shows the in-phase and out-of-phase movements between the legs and arms on the left and right sides of a human body, implying that this walking motion is spontaneous, likely not requiring any directives from the brain. Dynamic motions of CAD mannequins are also simulated by drop tests for comparisons and the validity of the models is discussed through Fourier frequency analysis. All computed modes of motion are collected in several sets of video animations for ease of visualization. Samples of LS-DYNA computer codes are also included for possible use by other researchers.

Graphical criteria for the identification of marginal causal effects in continuous-time survival and event-history analyses

Abstract We consider continuous-time survival and event-history settings, where our aim is to graphically represent causal structures allowing us to characterize when a causal parameter is identified from observational data. This causal parameter is formalized as the effect on an outcome event of a (possibly hypothetical) intervention on the intensity of a treatment process. To establish identifiability, we propose novel graphical rules indicating whether the observed information is sufficient to obtain the desired causal effect by suitable reweighting. This requires a different type of graph than in discrete time. We formally define causal semantics for the corresponding dynamic graphs that represent local independence models for multivariate counting processes. Importantly, our work highlights that causal inference from censored data relies on subtle structural assumptions on the censoring process beyond independent censoring; these can be verified graphically. Put together, our results are the first to establish graphical rules for nonparametric causal identifiability in event processes in this generality for the continuous-time case, not relying on particular parametric survival models. We conclude with a data example on Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical cancer screening, where the assumptions are illustrated graphically and the desired effect is estimated by reweighted cumulative incidence curves.

Kinematic and Parametric Modeling of 6DOF(Degree-of-Freedom) Industrial Welding Robot Design and Implementation

Kinematic and Parametric Modeling of 6DOF(Degree-of-Freedom) Industrial Welding Robot Design and Implementation

The Distributed Parameter Model of an Electro-Pneumatic System Actuated by Pneumatic Artificial Muscles with PWM-Based Position Control

Today, the analysis and synthesis methods of electro-pneumatic systems with position control actuated by pneumatic artificial muscles (PAMs) are quite well known. In these methods, pneumatic artificial muscle is considered as an object with lumped parameters. However, the PAM is an object with distributed parameters, where the pressure, density, and mass flow rate of gas are varied along the bladder length. Thus, in the case of certain design parameters of the pneumatic artificial muscle and certain frequencies of the supply pressure, resonant gas oscillations affected by the wave processes in the bladder may occur. Thereby, in the PWM-driven PAM-actuated system, certain operation frequencies of the control pneumatic valve can cause oscillations of gas in the bladder and in the connected pipeline. These processes could lead to vibrations of the executive device. To solve this practical problem, a distributed parameter model of the PAM that takes into account the pressure fluctuations in the bladder and in the pipeline was elaborated. Also, in this work, a new method in which the wave processes are described by ordinary differential equations instead of partial differential equations was proposed.

Kinematic and Parametric Modeling of 6DOF(Degree-of-Freedom) Industrial Welding Robot Design and Implementation

Kinematic and Parametric Modeling of 6DOF(Degree-of-Freedom) Industrial Welding Robot Design and Implementation

Stealth Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Penetration Efficiency Optimization Based on Radar Detection Probability Model

Aerodynamic/stealth optimization is a key issue during the design of a stealth UAV. Balancing the weight of different incident angles of the RCS and combining stealth characteristics with aerodynamic characteristics are hotspots of aerodynamic/stealth optimization. To address this issue, this paper introduces a radar detection probability model to solve the weight balance problem of incident angles of the RCS and a penetration efficiency model to transfer the multi-object optimization into single-objective optimization. In this paper, a parameterized model of a flying-wing UAV is selected as the research object. A gradient-free optimization algorithm based on the genetic algorithm is used for maximizing efficiency. The optimization model balances the influence of the RCS mean value and RCS peak value on stealth performance. Moreover, the model achieves an optimal entire life cycle penetration efficiency coefficient by balancing aerodynamic and stealth optimization. The results show that the optimized model improves the penetration efficiency coefficient by 13.84% and increases maximum flight sorties by 1.8%. These results prove that the model has a reasonable combination of aerodynamic and stealth optimization for UAVs undertaking penetration missions.

Machine learning-based causal inference for evaluating intervention in travel behaviour research: A difference-in-differences framework

Causal inference with the difference-in-differences (DID) framework is popular in identifying causal effects with observational data and has started to be applied in recent travel behaviour studies. Most relevant transportation research adopts the conventional linear parametric DID model, which is known to be inflexible and restrictive. This study applies non-parametric DID estimators facilitated by machine learning (ML) models for causal inference in a variety of data scenarios. Semi-parametric and doubly robust estimators are established and integrated with the ML-based cross-fitting pipeline. Simulation studies and empirical case studies are conducted to showcase the ability of ML-based DID to detect causal effects from both simulated and real-world datasets. Results suggest that the proposed methods outperform conventional DID models in all data scenarios. Light working models are generally preferred over hyperparameter-dependent ones for their comparable performance, lower computational burden, and higher levels of compatibility to real-world empirical analysis. Empirical case studies also demonstrate how the proposed DID method could be applied to evaluate the impacts of various interventions on travel behaviour in different contexts. The present study adds to the existing travel behaviour literature by leveraging machine learning algorithms and non-parametric estimators to the impact evaluation of external interventions on travel characteristics and expanding the application of causal inference approaches in transportation research.

The effect of the Solar System Ephemeris on the search for the nano-Hz gravitational wave background

Abstract The detection of the nano-Hz gravitational-wave background (GWB) is one of the main targets of Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). The detection can be achieved via searching for a common signal with quadrapolar correlation between pulsar pairs. Errors in the Solar-system ephemeris (SSE) can induce dipolar correlations in PTA data, which may affect the results of GWB searches, especially when the data quality is not high enough to constrain the correlation pattern. We investigate the effect of unmodelled SSE errors on GWB searches with PTAs, using simulations with properties based on the European Pulsar Timing Array dataset. When the GWB signal is strong, SSE errors have little effect on the GWB search results, including parameter inference and model selection. When the GWB signal is weak, SSE errors can lead to overestimation of the GWB amplitude. However, model comparison would show strong support for dipolar correction, which implies the source of the common signal to be SSE-related and helps avoid its misidentification as a GWB signal. This indicates that SSE error is unlikely to be the main source of the common signal detected recently with real PTA data. We also use simulations to test the ability of the SSE model LINIMOSS in absorbing SSE-error signals and leaving the GWB signal intact. We show that marginalizing LINIMOSS planetary parameters with infinite priors is good at absorbing SSE errors, but may also lead to improper absorption of a GWB signal. Caution is therefore required when setting appropriate limits on the priors of SSE parameters.