A cost modelling methodology based on machine learning for engineered-to-order products

Abstract

Recent scientific studies are targeted at applying and assessing the effectiveness of Machine Learning (ML) approaches for cost estimation during the preliminary design phases. To train ML prediction models, comprehensive and structured datasets of historical data are required. This solution is inapplicable when such information is unavailable or sparse due to the lack of structured datasets. For engineered-to-order products, the number of historical records is often limited and strongly influenced by different purchasing or manufacturing strategies, thus requiring complex normalisation of such data.This method overcomes the above limitations by presenting an ML-based cost modelling methodology for the conceptual design that is applicable even when historical data are insufficient to train the prediction algorithms. The training dataset is generated through an analytical and automatic software tool for manufacturing cost estimation. Such a tool, starting from a 3D model of a product, can quickly and autonomously assess the related cost in different scenarios. An extensive and structured training dataset can be easily generated. The proposed methodology was based on CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining).Cost engineers of an Oil & Gas company used the method to develop parametric cost models for discs and spacers of an axial compressor. The solution guarantees lower error (7% vs 9%) and significant time-saving (minutes instead of hours) than estimations based on other approaches. Cost models are more comprehensive (capable of analysing different scenarios), explainable (not conceived as a black box), and self-learning (can be updated by extending the training dataset).