Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Research Articles

The variations of ENSO teleconnections during the Last Interglacial based on PMIP4 simulations

How the remote influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may vary in a warmer future remains a hot topic but still elusive. Based on the outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4, here we investigated the variations of ENSO teleconnections in boreal winter during the Last Interglacial (LIG), which shares large similarities with the projected climatic features in the 21st century. Our results suggested that the ENSO-temperature teleconnections on average weakened by ∼13.4% during the LIG relative to the preindustrial, whereas the response of precipitation amplified by ∼5.0%. However, there are large regional discrepancies in the variations of ENSO teleconnections in terms of the sign and amplitude. For example, we observed significant ENSO-temperature relationship changes at the high latitudes during the LIG, with a depressed linkage over northern North America but enhanced linkage over the high latitudes of Eurasia. The most profound change in ENSO-precipitation teleconnection occurred over the tropics during the LIG, characterized by a weaker response over the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas a stronger response over the Maritime Continent and adjacent oceans. Regarding atmospheric circulations, we found that the ENSO-driven Walker Circulations over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean shifted westward during the LIG, whereas the descending branch of the ENSO-driven Atlantic Walker Circulation shifted eastward. Our results provide a model-based scenario for the variations of ENSO teleconnections during the LIG, but the underlying mechanisms deserve further investigation in the future.

Indian Ocean Dipole Changes During the Last Interglacial Modulated by the Mean Oceanic Climatology

AbstractInvestigating the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) can advance knowledge of IOD behaviors in orbitally‐induced warmer‐than‐present scenarios. Based on multiple model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4, the analysis suggests reduced frequencies of the IOD compared to the preindustrial period. Spatially, the whole growing and mature stages of the IOD feature suppressed variability over the west and westward expansions of eastern anomalies, while the eastern perturbation enhances only at the initial phase. The overall amplitude assessed by the dipole mode index shows only minor reductions. These changes are attributed to orbitally‐induced enhancement in mean‐state westward currents along the equator, which transport more anomalous cold water westward. In addition, the subdued El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the LIG is unlikely to cause a weakening of the IOD, in association with a less important role of ENSO in the formation of the IOD.

External Forcings Caused the Tripole Trend of Asian Precipitation During the Holocene

AbstractTo investigate the evolution of precipitation over Asian continent in the Holocene and the associated mechanisms, we used a set of simulations of the transient climate evolution over the past 21,000 years (TraCE‐21ka), multimodel results from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4), and proxy records in Asia. The TraCE‐21ka results showed a tripole pattern in suborbital‐scale precipitation trends over the Asian continent during the Holocene, with a trend of increase over southern parts of the monsoon regions and arid Central Asia (ACA), and a trend of decline over northern parts of the monsoon regions and their areas of transition with ACA. This tripole pattern was corroborated by proxy records from multiple regions and multimodel results from the PMIP4. Further analysis based on single‐forcing simulations of TraCE‐21ka indicated that influences from different external forcings were different on the Asian precipitation in the main rainy seasons in the Holocene and that their combined effects shaped the tripole pattern. In summer, orbital forcing, by reducing solar radiation in mid‐to‐high latitudes and weakening the land‐sea thermal contrast, has been the dominant factor in the long‐term evolution of precipitation in the monsoon region and West Asia. In winter and spring, changes in meltwater flux played dominant roles in intensifying local water cycle and horizontal moisture advection, which drove the trend of increase in precipitation in ACA. Additionally, changes in greenhouse gas concentration and continental ice sheet forcings both also contribute to the increase in precipitation in ACA.

Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings

Abstract. In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth's orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (MH) is the most recent typical climate period and a subject of great interest in global paleocultural research. Following the latest Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4) protocol and using a fully coupled climate model, we simulated the climate during both the MH and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on climate differences, focusing on the simulated differences in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between these two periods. Compared to the PI simulation, the ORB effect in the MH simulation led to seasonal enhancement of temperature, consistent with previous findings. In the MH simulation, the ORB effect led to a markedly warmer climate in the mid–high latitudes and increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, which were partially offset by the cooling effect of the lower GHGs. The AMOC in the MH simulation was about 4 % stronger than that in the PI simulation. The ORB effect led to 6 % enhancement of the AMOC in the MH simulation, which was, however, partly neutralized by the GHG effect. Transient simulation from the MH to the PI further demonstrated the opposite effects of ORBs and GHGs on the evolution of the AMOC during the past 6000 years. The simulated stronger AMOC in the MH was mainly due to the thinner sea ice in the polar oceans caused by the ORB effect, which reduced the freshwater flux export to the subpolar Atlantic and resulted in a more saline North Atlantic. This study may help us quantitatively understand the roles of different external forcing factors in Earth's climate evolution since the MH.

Divergent response of eastern China precipitation to the Pacific decadal oscillation during the last Interglacial

Understanding the role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼127 ka) may advance our knowledge on decadal climate variability in a warmer world. In this study, we investigate the PDO–precipitation relationship over eastern China during the LIG based on the NorESM2-LM, which shows the best performance in capturing the observed PDO pattern and the PDO–precipitation relationship among 12 models from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4. Composite analysis shows that summer precipitation during the LIG is generally increased over eastern China in the positive PDO phases relative to the negative phases, which is different from the “drier-wetter-drier” triple pattern in the present day. The discrepant precipitation patterns between the LIG and preindustrial are caused by different responses of composite atmospheric circulations. Moreover, moisture budget analysis indicates that variations of vertical velocity over eastern China largely explain the PDO-linked precipitation patterns during both LIG and preindustrial, although the main causes for vertical motion changes are different across regions and periods based on the quasi-geostrophic ω equation. Additionally, these discrepancies in composite atmospheric circulations are largely linked to differences in PDO patterns and mean climate states between the LIG and preindustrial. Our results suggest a varying relationship between the PDO and precipitation over eastern China in a warmer-than-present world induced by Earth's orbit, which have important implications for PDO reconstructions during the LIG via the PDO-precipitation relationship reported here and shed light on decadal variability of precipitation as well as the associated decadal predictions in a future warmer world.

Mechanisms Associated With Tropospheric Dry Static Stability Change During the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractThe processes governing tropospheric stratification alterations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are investigated using the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3/4 (PMIP3/PMIP4) simulations. The results demonstrate a decrease in static stability in the tropics during both December‐January‐February (DJF) and June‐July‐August (JJA), while an increase is observed in the extratropics during DJF. Further analysis reveals that the rise in static stability over high‐latitude ocean is driven by shifts in surface frozen lines, whereas the increased static stability over ice sheet margins is due to the cooling effect of ice sheet slopes. The study finds that the dry static stability change in ice sheet‐covered areas remains significant and robust in both PMIP3 and PMIP4. However, a weaker stabilization signal is detected in the North Atlantic in PMIP4. These findings provide valuable insights into the processes shaping tropospheric stratification during the LGM and underscore the importance of accounting for ice sheet effects in paleoclimate simulations.

The PMIP4 simulated dryland aridity changes during the Last Interglacial

The dryland is one of the most important land ecosystems on the planet, and its changes are closely bound up with one-third of the world’s population. Investigating dryland climate change during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ∼127 ka ago) can advance our knowledge of dryland climate behaviors in an orbitally-induced warmer-than-present scenario. Based on the multiple model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4, we suggest that the dryland areas during the LIG are 37% wetter than that during the preindustrial period as measured by the aridity index (AI), and 37% of the preindustrial drylands correspondingly convert to wetter subtypes. Spatially, there are hemispheric differences with drylands wetting and contracting in the Northern Hemisphere but desiccating and expanding in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis indicates that the altered precipitation is the dominant contributor to more than 72% of the AI changes, and the precipitation change is mainly attributed to the orbitally-induced redistribution of incoming insolation and heat. The secondary factor is the relative humidity change, exaggerating the AI changes in the same direction as the precipitation does. The simulation agrees reasonably with reconstructions for most regions, except Australia and southern Africa. The simulated changes in dryland aridity and the mechanism differ from that in future warming scenarios, so we claim that the LIG as a potential analogue for a warmer future does not fully hold for the dryland climate.

Unfavorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific during the Last Interglacial based on PMIP4 simulations

Investigating the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in past warm periods helps to better understand TC behaviors in a warming future. In this study, the authors analyze the changes in large-scale TC genesis factors and the associated mechanisms over the WNP during the Last Interglacial (LIG), based on multimodel outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4. The results show that potential intensity exhibits a general decrease over the WNP during the LIG in the storm season, dominated by a weakened thermodynamic disequilibrium. The moist entropy deficit shows an overall increase over the WNP, arising from the decreased mid-tropospheric moisture and weakened vertical temperature contrast. Vertical wind shear enhances over the central WNP but weakens over the southwestern WNP, which is induced by the changes in the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and hence high-level zonal winds. The absolute vorticity shows a general decrease over the WNP, partially linked with the decreased SST over the western tropical Pacific. Based on a genesis potential index, the authors suggest a decrease in genesis potential over the WNP during the LIG, indicating unfavorable conditions for TC genesis. The results highlight the important role of Earth's orbit in regulating TC activity, which may shed light on TC behaviors in a warmer climate.

The Asian–Pacific oscillation over the past millennium in PMIP3 and PMIP4

Atmospheric oscillations in the upper troposphere can exert considerable impacts on regional and global climate change. The Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO), a recently identified upper-tropospheric teleconnection is not yet well documented during the last millennium. Here we use 13 models from Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 3 and 4 (PMIP3 and PMIP4, respectively) to first assess their ability in simulating the climatology and interannual variability of the APO in recent decades, and then examine the changes in APO over the last millennium and attribute the associated sources. The evaluation indicates that the models show high fidelity to the observed climatological horizontal and vertical distributions of the boreal summer APO, with the PMIP4 models outperforming the PMIP3 ones. And the majority of the models can reasonably reproduce the out-of-phase teleconnection pattern over the Asia–North Pacific sector and the interannual variability of the APO index (APOI). During the last millennium, the APOI exhibits a remarkable decreasing trend, and the indices averaged in the MCA (LIA) are significantly larger (smaller) referring to the whole millennium. In warm/cold periods, APO changes over East Asia can be attributed to the Tibetan Plateau heating-induced condensation latent heat and the northern part of the East Asian summer monsoon-associated latent heat, whereas the changes over the North Pacific originate from dry adiabatic heat and the superposed weak offsetting latent heat. Additionally, the APOI reveals a notable interannual scale cycle at around five years.

Secular Changes of the Decadal Relationship Between the Northern Hemisphere Land Monsoon Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature Over the Past Millennium in Climate Model Simulations

AbstractUnderstanding the decadal variability of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) is crucial to social‐economic development. However, due to the temporal limitation of instrumental data, the decadal relationship between NHLMR and sea surface temperature (SST) remains uncertain. The extended El Niño–Southern Oscillation (XEN) SST index and the North Atlantic–south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) SST index can be the predictors to help us understand the decadal relationship between NHLMR and SST. In this study, using the Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM‐LME) simulations, we find a significant and stable decadal correlation between the NHLMR and XEN in the all‐forcing (AF) (with natural and anthropogenic forcings, AF), control (internal variability only), and other external forcings run over the past millennium, which means that this simulated NHLMR‐XEN relationship is caused by internal variability. The AF experiments show that the decadal relationship between NHLMR and NAID is practically non‐existent until an abrupt and significant increase in volcanic eruptions at about 1700, which is also indicated by the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) simulations. Using the volcanic forcing sensitivity experiments, we find that the successive strong volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) significantly strengthen the synchronous changes of NHLMR and NAID after 1700, with a periodicity of 20–40‐year for NHLMR and NAID. Specifically, successive NH eruptions weaken the north‐south hemispheric thermal contrast, contributing to the weakened NAID index. The cross‐equator flow is thus weakened, decreasing the NHLMR, which cause a resonant behavior of NHLMR and NAID.

Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

This study comprehensively investigates the impacts on the mean state of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, particularly atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere associated with the different Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) ice sheets, ICE-6G_C, GLAC-1D, and PMIP3, using the coupled atmosphere–ocean–vegetation model HadCM3B-M2.1aD. The simulation with PMIP3 ice sheets is colder than either of the two PMIP4 ice sheets mainly because of the larger area of land ice impacting surface albedo. However, changes in the circulation impact sea ice cover resulting in the GLAC-1D simulation being almost as cold. Although the PMIP4 ice sheets also induce different responses in the atmospheric circulation, some common features are identified in all simulations, including strengthening and lateral expansion of the winter upper-level North Atlantic jet with a large southwest-northeast tilt and summertime North Pacific jet, a southward shift of the wintertime Icelandic Low and Azores High and the summertime Pacific High. Compared to terrestrial-ocean reconstructions, all the PMIP4 ice sheet experiments overestimate the LGM cooling and wet conditions. The simulation with the ICE-6G_C ice sheet provides the closest reproduction of LGM climate, while the simulation with the PMIP3 ice sheet shows the coldest LGM climate state. Our study shows that in order to "benchmark" the ability of climate models to realistically simulate the LGM climate, we need to have reliable boundary conditions to ensure that any model biases are caused by model limitations rather than uncertainty about the LGM boundary conditions.

Was there a volcanic-induced long-lasting cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-6th–7th century?

Abstract. The climate of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the mid-6th century was one of the coldest during the last 2 millennia based on multiple paleo-proxies. While the onset of this cold period can be clearly connected to the volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 Common Era (CE), the duration, extent, and magnitude of the cold period are uncertain. Proxy data are sparse for the first millennium, which compounds the uncertainties of the reconstructions. To better understand the mechanisms of the prolonged cooling, we analyze new transient simulations over the Common Era and enhance the representation of mid-6th to 7th century climate by additional ensemble simulations covering 520–680 CE. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to apply the external forcing as recommended in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4. After the four large eruptions in 536, 540, 574, and 626 CE, a significant mean surface climate response in the NH lasting up to 20 years is simulated. The 2 m air temperature shows a cooling over the Arctic in winter, corresponding to the increase in Arctic sea ice, mainly in the Labrador Sea and to the east of Greenland. The increase in sea-ice extent relates to a decrease in the northward ocean heat transport into the Arctic within the first 2 years after the eruptions and to an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which peaks 10 years after the eruptions. A decrease in the global ocean heat content is simulated after the eruptions that does not recover during the simulation period. These ocean–sea-ice interactions sustain the surface cooling, as the cooling lasts longer than is expected solely from the direct effects of the volcanic forcing, and are thus responsible for the multi-decadal surface cooling. In boreal summer, the main cooling occurs over the continents at midlatitudes. A dipole pattern develops with high sea level pressure and a decrease in both precipitation and evaporation poleward of 40∘ N. In addition, more pronounced cooling over land compared to ocean leads to an enhanced land–sea contrast. While our model ensemble simulations show a similar ∼20-year summer cooling over NH land after the eruptions as tree ring reconstructions, a volcanic-induced century-long cooling, as reconstructed from tree ring data, does not occur in our simulations.

Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY

Abstract. Numerical modeling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison are from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We came to the following conclusions. (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in boreal autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, due to the fact that the vernal equinox is fixed on 21 March. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from the classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the classical seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, month-length adjusted values for surface air temperature and precipitation are very similar to the day-length adjusted values, and therefore correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can largely reduce the artificial bias. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in three transient simulations for 6–0 ka by AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL-CM. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn, while for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the classical calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation.

General characteristics of climate change over China and associated dynamic mechanisms during the Last Interglacial based on PMIP4 simulations

Investigation of climate change during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~130–115 ka BP) may deepen our understanding of the response of climate to Earth's orbit. Here we examine climate change over China and associated mechanisms during the LIG using the lig127k experiments from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4. We illustrate that annual mean surface air temperature over China decreases by 0.22 °C during the LIG relative to the preindustrial, with a colder climate in winter and spring, whereas a warmer climate in summer and autumn. Annual mean precipitation increases (up to 54%) over northern and southwestern China during the LIG, whereas it decreases (up to 11%) over the other parts. This pattern largely holds for precipitation change in summer during the LIG, but precipitation generally decreases in winter. According to the moisture budget equation, the nonlinear and horizontal dynamic terms contribute largely to the drier (wetter) conditions in summer over the south (north) of eastern China, whereas the horizontal dynamic term and the horizontal thermodynamic term is more important in regulating drier conditions over south and north of eastern China in winter, respectively. Furthermore, East Asian summer monsoon is intensified during the LIG manifested by anomalous southerly at 850 hPa, a westward shift of western North Pacific subtropical high, and poleward migration of East Asian westerly jet. East Asian winter monsoon also gets stronger during the LIG, with anomalous northerly at low-level troposphere, enhanced mid-tropospheric East Asian trough, and an equatorward shift of westerly jet at upper troposphere. Additionally, we note obvious data-model discrepancies in annual temperature change over China during the LIG, with cooling seen in the models but warming suggested by multiproxies. This highlights close collaboration between model and data communities in future to deepen our understanding of climate change during the LIG.

Disentangling Internal and External Contributions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium

AbstractThe Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) modulates the North Atlantic surface ocean variability and affects decadal climates over the globe; its underlying mechanisms remain, however, under debate. In this study, we use a multi‐model ensemble of transient past‐millennium (850–1849) and unperturbed preindustrial control simulations contributing to the paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project—phase 4 (PMIP4) to decompose the AMV signal into the internal AMV and the external signal. The internal component of AMV exhibits no robust behavior across simulations during periods of major forcing such as strong volcanic eruptions, whereas the external forced temperature responds to volcanic eruptions with an immediate radiative cooling followed, in some simulations, by a sequence of damped multidecadal oscillations. The internal component tightly relates with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and dominates the fluctuations of AMV; whereas the external signal has limited impacts on AMOC and explains ∼25% of the AMV variance over the past millennium.

Migration of the Northern Boundary of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Last 21,000 years

AbstractInvestigating the past evolution of the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important in understanding the East Asian climate of the past, present, and future. In this study, using a set of transient simulations from TraCE‐21ka, we investigate the migration of the EASM northern boundary over eastern China via three metrics and its responses to individual external forcings during the last 21,000 years. The northern boundary was located farther southeastward from 21 ka to 18 ka and more northwestward since 15 ka compared with the present boundary. For two key time slices, the boundary exhibited a southeastward migration ranging from 120 to 140 km in the last glacial maximum (LGM) and a 110–140 km northwestward shift in the mid‐Holocene relative to the present boundary. Temporally, the evolution of the boundary was characterized first by a poleward migration and then an equatorward shift from the LGM to the present, which was mainly driven by orbital insolation. This long‐term trend was punctuated by several millennial fluctuations in response to meltwater fluxes. The boundary migration during the LGM and the mid‐Holocene generally lies within the range of the multimodel results from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4). In terms of dynamic mechanisms, an orbitally induced increase of summer insolation led to an enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and adjacent ocean and, in turn, intensified low‐level southerly winds, which facilitated the northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary and more precipitation over eastern China. The boundary responses to the changing meltwater fluxes were similar but weak. Additionally, the EASM northern limit was closely linked to the forest‐steppe boundary. The reconstructed forest‐steppe boundary estimated from pollen records and the simulated EASM northern edge display spatially consistent positions, orientations, and change trends.

Documented and Simulated Warm Extremes during the Last 600 Years over Monsoonal China

In this study, we present an analysis of warm extremes over monsoonal China (21–45° N, 106–124° E) during the last 600 years based on Chinese historical documents and simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Chinese historical documents indicate that extreme warm records become more frequent after ~1650 CE in North China and ~1850 CE in the Yangtze River Valley. Our analyses of two threshold extreme temperature indices also illustrate that warm extremes have become more frequent since the 17th century in North China and the mid-19th century in Yangtze River Valley in good agreement with the changes in warm extremes revealed in the historical documents. This agreement suggests potential mechanisms behind the shift of periods, which should be further investigated in the future.

The Choco low‐level jet: past, present and future

The Choco low-level jet is among the main regional circulation mechanisms related to the advection of water vapor from the eastern Pacific to northwestern South America. Variations in the intensity of position of the jet core are identified as determinant for regional moisture transport and associated rainfall. This paper analyzes the annual cycle of intensity and latitudinal location of this jet according to different reanalysis and observational datasets. Moreover, we compare possible changes in the Choco jet occurred during past climates, like the little ice age (LIA), with those associated with future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP8.5), using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results suggest that according to reanalysis/observational data, as well as the CMIP5 models with the best representation of the Choco jet in present climate, there is a positive correlation between the jet intensity and its latitudinal location, and such relationship is associated with the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the eastern tropical Pacific and the northwestern South American landmass. Hence, stronger (weaker) SLP differences favor a stronger (weaker) intensity and a northward (southward) location of the Choco jet. PMIP3 simulations suggest a stronger and northward Choco jet during LIA due to a stronger SLP difference in comparison to present climate. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, there is not robust agreement among CMIP5 models although the best models suggest a southward jet at the end of the 21st century. This suggests that the mechanisms influencing the Choco jet may play different roles during past natural climate changes with respect to anthropogenically-forced climate changes.

Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Drives Enhanced Greenland Surface Temperature Variability During the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractStable oxygen isotope records from central Greenland suggest disproportionally large long‐term surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to preindustrial times. Large perturbations in mean atmospheric circulation and its variability forced by extensive Northern Hemisphere ice sheet coverage have been suggested as cause for the enhanced Greenland SAT variability. Here, we assess the factors driving Greenland SAT variability during the LGM by means of dedicated climate model simulations and find remote forcing from the Pacific of critical importance. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a multidecadal oscillation of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, strongly intensify under LGM conditions, driving enhanced surface wind variability over Greenland, which in turn amplifies SAT variability by anomalous atmospheric heat transport. A major role of the IPO in forcing Greenland SAT variability also is supported by a number of models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase III.