Abstract
In this study, we present an analysis of warm extremes over monsoonal China (21–45° N, 106–124° E) during the last 600 years based on Chinese historical documents and simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Chinese historical documents indicate that extreme warm records become more frequent after ~1650 CE in North China and ~1850 CE in the Yangtze River Valley. Our analyses of two threshold extreme temperature indices also illustrate that warm extremes have become more frequent since the 17th century in North China and the mid-19th century in Yangtze River Valley in good agreement with the changes in warm extremes revealed in the historical documents. This agreement suggests potential mechanisms behind the shift of periods, which should be further investigated in the future.
Highlights
The last 600 years is a crucial period that links the last millennium together with the recent warming climate
Using the global atmosphereocean coupled model ECHO-G, Liu et al [37] revealed that the simulated low-frequency climate variabilities during the Little Ice Age (LIA) agree well with the reconstructions based on Chinese historical documents [14]
We found that warm records of monsoonal China became more frequent after
Summary
The last 600 years is a crucial period that links the last millennium together with the recent warming climate. Climate variabilities during the last 600 years attract much interest from proxies and from modelling studies in China. Using the global atmosphereocean coupled model ECHO-G, Liu et al [37] revealed that the simulated low-frequency climate variabilities during the LIA agree well with the reconstructions based on Chinese historical documents [14]. Using the fully coupled three-dimensional model CCSM 2.0.1, Peng et al [38] pointed out that simulated temperature variabilities remained weaker than the reconstruction [14] in eastern China. Less attention is paid to understanding warm extremes during the last 600 years because the LIA is a cold period. To further improve the understanding of climate extreme events in monsoonal China (21–45◦ N, 106–124◦ E), in this study we compare documented and simulated warm extremes.
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