Abstract
Estimating the changes in the spatial–temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events under future climate scenarios is critical to provide reference information to help mitigate climate change. In this study, we analyzed 16 extreme temperature indices calculated based on downscaled data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that were obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the Han River Basin (HRB). The results indicate that the downscaled data from 28 GCMs reproduced a consistent sign of recent trends for all extreme temperature indices except the DTR for the historical period (1961–2013). We found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices (i.e., TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU, TR, and WSDI) and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices (i.e., TX10p, TN10p, CSDI, FD, ID) under both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. Spatially, great changes in warm extremes will occur in the west and southeast of the HRB in the future. The projected changes in extreme temperatures will impact the eco-environment and agricultural production. Our findings will help regional managers adopt countermeasures and strategies to adapt to future climate change, especially extreme weather events.
Highlights
Compared with the mean values of climate change, extreme climate events are sudden, unpredictable, and highly destructive; they have a great impact on the natural system, can cause serious damage to the ecological environment and human life, and can affect global food security and water resource supplies [1,2,3].Many studies have noted that increasing temperatures can alter the length of the potential growing season, accelerate phenological development and leaf senescence, and affect cropping systems and grain yield [4,5]
There were significant increasing trends for the observed warm extremes indices (TNx, TNn, TXn, TX90p, TN90p, WSDI, TR, and SU), while significant decreasing trends were found for the cold extremes indices (TX10p, ID, and FD)
Our results showed significant increasing trends in warm extreme indices and decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices over the whole region under RCP4.5 and 8.5
Summary
Compared with the mean values of climate change, extreme climate events (such as floods, droughts, typhoons, storms, extreme heat, and extreme cold) are sudden, unpredictable, and highly destructive; they have a great impact on the natural system, can cause serious damage to the ecological environment and human life, and can affect global food security and water resource supplies [1,2,3].Many studies have noted that increasing temperatures can alter the length of the potential growing season, accelerate phenological development and leaf senescence, and affect cropping systems and grain yield [4,5]. Compared with the mean values of climate change, extreme climate events (such as floods, droughts, typhoons, storms, extreme heat, and extreme cold) are sudden, unpredictable, and highly destructive; they have a great impact on the natural system, can cause serious damage to the ecological environment and human life, and can affect global food security and water resource supplies [1,2,3]. As extreme climate events have great adverse effects, quantifying their changing trends under future climate scenarios is essential. Numerous studies have shown the increasing trends under extreme heat temperature events and decreasing trend during extreme cold temperatures under future climate change scenarios at different spatiotemporal levels [7,8,9]. The amount of the increase or decrease of projected future extreme temperatures depends on the study areas, the selected
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