Future changes in temperature extremes in climate variability over Iran

Abstract

AbstractThe objective of the current study was to project changes in extreme temperature indices over Iran by the end of the 21st Century based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We used six extreme temperature indices recommended and defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from a set of 18 CMIP5 model simulations from different modelling centres. The extreme temperature indices simulation results of the models were compared with the gridded extreme temperature indices observations of the Asfazari National Database with a spatial resolution of 15 × 15 km during the period 1962–2005. For comparison purposes, the CMIP5 model data and the Asfazari data were regridded to a uniform horizontal resolution 0.5° × 0.5° grid using a bilinear interpolation scheme before further processing. After first validating the model performance by computing bias, future changes in the period 2006–2100 were projected. The modified Mann Kendall trend test and the Sen slope estimator test were used for evaluating the trend of indices and estimating the change rate, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. The results show that the minimum of the daily minimum temperature (TNn) and the minimum of the daily maximum temperature (TXn) will increase in the future. Warming of night time temperature indices (TNn and TN90p) are projected to be stronger than those of daytime temperature indices (TXn and TX90p). Warming is not uniform across the country, with considerably more warming in the western and southern parts. In terms of the frequency of frost days, a decrease is generally projected in the 21st Century. The largest decrease is projected for the Zagros mountain ranges in the west and the mountainous region in the northeastern part of the country with a magnitude of around 8–10 days⋅decade−1. The number of heat wave days is expected to increase sharply from about 13 days in the reference period (1963–2005) to 100 days by mid‐century to more than 235 days by the end of the century under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5.