Pacific Variability Research Articles

Amplified tropical Pacific rainfall variability related to background SST warming

Previous studies have found that under global warming, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related rainfall variability will become enhanced over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and weakened over the western Pacific. The climatological sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern exhibits a warming center in the equatorial eastern Pacific in projections. How this pattern contributes to projected changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability has not been fully addressed. Here, we use “time-slice” experiments to investigate the response of interannual variability in tropical Pacific rainfall in boreal winter to a warming background SST and associated physical mechanisms. A high-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Model is driven by the detrended observational SST (1979–2003) plus a warming pattern from the coupled model under the A1B emission scenario (2075–2099). The results show that precipitation interannual variability over the tropical central-eastern Pacific will be enhanced more than the surrounding regions under warming, which is mostly contributed by a faster increase in rainfall amount during the El Niño year relative to non-El Niño years. Based on a moisture budget analysis, both the dynamic and thermodynamic components in the vertical advection of climatological specific humidity contribute to the enhancement of El Niño-induced precipitation anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific where the dynamic effect is dominant. Moist static energy budget analysis further illustrates that vertical velocity is enhanced due to the increased transport of moist static energy from the lower troposphere into the middle-upper troposphere and the intensified warming effect of cloud longwave radiation caused by the increase of high cloud amount and altitude.

The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability

Tropical Pacific variability (TPV) heavily influences global climate, but much is still unknown about its drivers. We examine the impact of South Pacific variability on the modes of TPV: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We conduct idealised coupled experiments in which we suppress temperature and salinity variability at all oceanic levels in the South Pacific. This reduces decadal variability in the equatorial Pacific by ~30% and distorts the spatial pattern of the IPO. There is little change to overall interannual variability, however there is a decrease in the magnitude of the largest 5% of both El Niño and La Niña sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Possible reasons for this include: (i) reduced decadal variability means that interannual SST variability is superposed onto a ‘flatter’ background signal, (ii) suppressing South Pacific variability leads to the alteration of coupled processes linking the South and equatorial Pacific. A small but significant mean state change arising from the imposed suppression may also contribute to the weakened extreme ENSO SST anomalies. The magnitude of both extreme El Niño and La Niña SST anomalies are reduced, and the associated spatial patterns of change of upper ocean heat content and wind stress anomalies are markedly different for both types of events.

Nonlinear Short-Term Upper Ocean Circulation Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific

Nonlinear Short-Term Upper Ocean Circulation Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific

ENSO diversity and the recent appearance of Central Pacific ENSO

ENSO diversity refers to the appearance in recent decades of different El Nino types in the tropical Pacific: In addition to the canonical El Nino, the newly discovered type, called Central Pacific (CP) El Nino, has its center of warming shifted more to the central equatorial Pacific. Whether these ENSO types are really distinct or are different manifestations of a continuum is currently under debate. The mechanisms for the recent appearance of the additional type of ENSO have not been clarified. While previously it was claimed that the increased CP El Nino occurrence in recent decades were due to tropical trade winds weakened by global warming, the observed trade winds actually intensified. We systematically study the variability of the Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) using the new method of Rotated Principal Component Analysis (RPCA). The essential statistical characteristics of these two El Nino types are found to be describable by only three fundamental modes of pan-Pacific SST with different proportions: the ENSO-cycle, the pan-Pacific counterpart of the regionally defined Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and a new climate mode we call the Central Pacific Variability (CPV). It is shown that CP El Nino can be described by the PDO and the CPV. The latter has a horseshoe-shaped warm SST pattern in the Central Pacific flanked by cold SST to the east, roughly similar to the original definition of ENSO Modoki by Ashok et al. (J Geophys Res Oceans 112:C11007, 2007) as the second Empirical Orthogonal Function in a narrow tropical domain decomposition. The Principal Component (PC) of this mode, called Modoki PC (MPC) was thought to characterize the occurrence of this new phenomenon, but it has been shown to be unable to separate it from the canonical ENSO. In contrast, we demonstrate that Central Pacific El Nino occurs when the CPV index is larger than 0.5. The intensity of the CPV mode has increased dramatically since 1970s, likely as a result of the intensification of the easterly trade winds in the tropical Pacific, which tilts the thermocline along the tropical Pacific and raises the SST in the central equatorial Pacific. Moderate El Ninos are more prone to stalling in the Central Pacific, becoming CP El Ninos.

Variability of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) spawn abundance under climate change off the West Coast of Canada over the past six decades

Abstract Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) is an ecologically- and commercially-important species in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Detailed records of herring spawn off the coast of British Columbia (BC), Canada, collected annually since 1928, indicate that spawn distribution has gone through systematic changes over time. The cessation of spawning in some areas has led to concerns that commercial herring fisheries have resulted in serial depletion of local spawning. However, previous studies suggested that changes in spawn distribution may not necessarily be fisheries induced. Hitherto, there have been no satisfactory explanations for these changes. In this study, we developed boosted regression tree (BRT) models for four major spawning regions in BC (the Prince Rupert District, Haida Gwaii, the Central Coast, and the West Coast of Vancouver Island) to explore the nonlinear relationships between herring spawn abundance and environmental variables, including two indices of Pacific Ocean basin-scale variability (the PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation; and the NPGO: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation) and regional scale wind-stress off the BC coast. We find a “bowl-shaped” relationship between herring spawn abundance and two environmental variables (the PDO and NPGO) across all spawning regions and a “dome-shaped” relationship between spawn abundance and upwelling-favorable wind-stress, the latter indicating that there is an optimal range of wind stress values that favor herring spawn abundance. Results also suggest that, in Haida Gwaii, herring spawn abundance has been primarily governed by the NPGO and downwelling-favorable alongshore wind-stress; in contrast, the PDO and upwelling-favorable alongshore wind-stress are top contributors to spawn fluctuations in all other regions. These results help facilitate our understanding of how changes in physical environmental conditions affect herring spawn abundance as well as subsequent population dynamics.

Three-ocean interactions and climate variability: a review and perspective

Interactions among the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans through ocean–atmosphere coupling can initiate and/or modulate climate variability. The Pacific Ocean is home to ENSO which affects other oceans through atmospheric bridges and the oceanic Indonesian throughflow (ITF). A warm Indian Ocean can produce atmospheric Kelvin waves that propagate eastward and increase equatorial easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific and thus cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). A positive Indian Ocean dipole establishes a southwestward pressure gradient force in the ITF region which increases the ITF transport and decreases ocean heat content in the western Pacific and may cool eastern Pacific SST. The Indian Ocean can also influence the Atlantic by atmospheric bridge and the oceanic Agulhas leakage south of Africa. Midlatitude North Atlantic SSTs may affect Pacific climate variability: (1) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) influences North Pacific variability; (2) The warm AMO phase increases the occurrence of central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño; (3) The warm AMO phase helps induce anomalous cyclonic circulation in the tropical western North Pacific; and (4) A cold midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean in the summer may initiate an El Niño in subsequent year via the East Atlantic/West Russia teleconnection. A warm tropical North Atlantic in the spring can induce a CP-type La Niña in the subsequent winter, via two pathways of the tropical eastern North and South Pacific. Finally, the Atlantic Niño (Niña) in the summer, through the Walker circulation and ocean dynamics, helps induce an eastern Pacific-type La Niña (El Niño) in the subsequent winter. The Atlantic Niño can also warm the tropical western Indian Ocean and weaken Indian monsoon rainfall.

The Dominant Patterns of Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in May–October and November–April over the Tropical Western Pacific

Abstract The space–time structure of intraseasonal (10–90 day) rainfall variability in the western tropical Pacific is studied using daily 3B42 TRMM and ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1998–2014. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 10–90-day filtered daily rainfall anomalies identifies two leading modes in both May–October and November–April; together these modes explain about 11%–12% of the total intraseasonal variance over the domain in both seasons and up to 60% over large areas of the western Pacific in both climatological periods. The two leading modes in May–October are linearly related to each other and both are well correlated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) indices. Although the two leading EOF modes in November–April are linearly independent of each other, both show statistically significant correlations with the MJO. The phase composites of 30–80-day filtered data show that the two leading modes are associated with strong eastward and northward propagation of rainfall anomalies in May–October, and eastward and southward propagation of rainfall anomalies in November–April. The eastward propagation of rainfall anomalies in both seasons and southeastward propagation related with EOF2 in November–April is linked to the development of low-level moisture flux convergence ahead of the active convection. Similarly, the northward propagation in May–October is also connected with low-level moisture flux convergence, but surface wind and evaporation variations are also important. The wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism drives the southeastward propagation of rainfall anomalies associated with EOF1 in November–April. The different mechanisms for southeastward propagation associated with two leading modes in November–April suggest dynamically different relations with the MJO.

Diversity of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Pattern among CMIP5 Models: Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

AbstractThe wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models displays notable differences from the reanalysis. The North Pacific center of the AO pattern is larger in the ensemble mean of 27 models than in the reanalysis, and the magnitude of the North Pacific center of the AO pattern varies largely among the models. This study investigates the plausible sources of the diversity of the AO pattern in the models. Analysis indicates that the amplitude of the North Pacific center is associated with the coupling between the North Pacific and North Atlantic, which in turn is primarily modulated by the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. A comparative analysis is conducted for the strong polar vortex (SPV) and weak polar vortex (WPV) models. It reveals that a stronger stratospheric polar vortex induces more planetary waves to reflect from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic and more wave activity fluxes to propagate from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic in the SPV models than in the WPV models. Thus, the coupling of atmospheric circulation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic is stronger in the SPV models, which facilitates more North Pacific variability to be involved in the AO variability and induces a stronger North Pacific center in the AO pattern. The increase in vertical resolution may improve the simulation of the stratospheric polar vortex and thereby reduces the model biases in the North Pacific–North Atlantic coupling and thereby the amplitude of the North Pacific center of the AO pattern in models.

ENSO drives near-surface oxygen and vertical habitat variability in the tropical Pacific

El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) is the leading cause of sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific with known impacts on tuna geographic range, but its effects on oxygen and available oxygenated habitat space are less clear. Variations in oxygenated vertical habitat space in the upper-ocean can alter interactions between predator and prey, as well as drive changes in the vulnerability of economically important tuna and other pelagic fish to surface fishing gear. Using in situ measurements, we show that ENSO is the primary driver of upper-ocean oxygen partial pressure (pO2) variability on year-to-year time scales in the tropical Pacific. Mechanistically, these pO2 variations are primarily caused by vertical shifts in thermocline depth, which alternately elevate and depress cold, hypoxic waters from the ocean interior depending on the ENSO phase and location. Transport-driven, isopycnal pO2 variations within the thermocline also play an important but secondary role. In the western tropical Pacific, waters within the exclusive economic zones of Palau, Micronesia, Nauru, and the Marshall Islands undergo the greatest variations in oxygenated tuna vertical habitat extent: approximately 19.5 m, 23.9 m, 19.5 m, and 19.3 m, respectively, between El Niño and La Niña phases. Oxygen thus plays an important role in altering available tuna vertical habitat space between different phases of ENSO.

The effect of the equatorial Pacific cold SST bias on simulated ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific and California

Precipitation in California is modulated by variability in the tropical Pacific associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): more rainfall is expected during El Nino episodes, and reduced rainfall during La Nina. It has been suggested that besides the shape and location of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly this remote connection depends on the strength and location of the atmospheric convection response in the tropical Pacific. Here we show in a perturbed physics ensemble of the Kiel Climate Model and CMIP5 models that due to a cold equatorial SST bias many climate models are in a La Nina-like mean state, resulting in a too westward position of the rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation. This in turn results in a convective response along the equator during ENSO events that is too far west in comparison to observations. This effect of the equatorial cold SST bias is not restricted to the tropics, moreover it leads to a too westward SLP response in the North Pacific and too westward precipitation response that does not reach California. Further we show that climate models with a reduced equatorial cold SST bias have a more realistic representation of the spatial asymmetry of the teleconnections between El Nino and La Nina.

On the westward shift of tropical Pacific climate variability since 2000

A profound westward shift in atmosphere–ocean variability in the tropical Pacific is observed when 2000–2017 is compared to 1979–1999. This westward displacement is associated with changes in oceanic Kelvin wave activity along the equator, especially a remarkable reduction in the eastern Pacific (175°–145°W). This coincides with a weakening of low-level westerly winds in this region, and a westward shift of low-level easterly winds in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, as well as decreased variability of vertical entrainment, vertical diffusion in the ocean mixed-layer in the eastern Pacific. The observed enhancement of the zonal contrast of the mean state across the tropical Pacific seems to be associated with the westward shift of climate variability along the equator. This systematically westward shift of the atmosphere–ocean variability in the tropical Pacific alters the impact of the tropical Pacific on extra-tropical climate.

Interannual Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific in CMIP5 Simulations

Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity (MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Ni˜no3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Ni˜no3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.

Two regimes of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation: cross-basin dependent or Atlantic-intrinsic

The Atlantic Multidedal Oscillation (AMO) is a prominent mode of sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic and incurs significant global influence. Most coupled models failed to reproduce the observed 50–80-year AMO, but were overwhelmed by a 10–30-year AMO. Here we show that the 50–80-year AMO and 10–30-year AMO represent two different AMO regimes. The key differences are: (1) the 50–80-year AMO involves transport of warm and saline Atlantic water into the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas prior to reaching its maximum positive phase, while such a transport is weak for the 10–30-year AMO; (2) the zonality of atmospheric variability associated with the 50–80 year AMO favors the transport of warm and saline water into the GIN Seas; (3) the disappearance of Pacific variability weakens the zonality of atmospheric variability and the transport of warm and saline water into the GIN Seas, leading to the weakening of the 50–80-year AMO. In contrast, the 10–30-year AMO does not show dependence on the variability in Pacific and in the GIN Seas and may be an Atlantic-intrinsic mode. Our results suggest that differentiating these AMO regimes and a better understanding of the cross-basin connections are essential to reconcile the current debate on the nature of AMO and hence to its reliable prediction, which is still lacking in most of coupled models.

The Impact of the Processes in the Southern Ocean on ENSO Development

The paper presents the review of the model study of the role of the Southern Ocean in the processes of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere system at short time scales impacting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that the variability of wind and atmospheric pressure over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), together with the effects of the topography and coastline, significantly impact the development of ENSO events. A new paradigm for ENSO is proposed that allows explaining the current weakening of the interrelation between the variability in wind and water volume in the tropical warm pool in the western equatorial Pacific and the onset of ENSO. The weakness of the interrelationship between ENSO and variability in the equatorial warm water volume of the equatorial Pacific, together with wind variability in the western equatorial Pacific, can be explained by the fact that the process occurred in the Southern Ocean recently became a major contributor amplifying ENSO events. The reproduction in numerical models of ocean dynamics for the mechanism found can improve the accuracy of the forecast of El Niño events.

Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model (FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study. The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions. The average skill of the North Pacific variability (NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72 (0.55) when El Nino-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase (out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6% (23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.

Indo-Western Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO Forcing and Internal Dynamics in a Tropical Pacific Pacemaker Simulation

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean–atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling.

A Deep Eastern Equatorial Pacific Thermocline During the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractThe mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is influenced by the depth of the thermocline. During the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago), the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific was reduced and productivity was generally lower than modern. To understand the thermocline depth's role in determining the Last Glacial Maximum tropical mean state, we reconstruct the upper ocean δ18O profile from multiple species of planktic foraminifera. We synthesize existing records of surface and subsurface dwelling foraminifera to reconstruct the vertical δ18O gradient throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific. We find the thermocline was deeper during the Last Glacial Maximum than the Holocene throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific region. The thermocline depth's role in the dynamic forcing of the cold tongue contributed to the reduced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific, decreased productivity, and presumably impacted El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability relative to the Holocene.

Coupled Model Biases Breed Spurious Low‐Frequency Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

AbstractCoupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high‐frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long‐term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone.

Estimate of the average timing for strong El Niño events using the recharge oscillator model with a multiplicative perturbation.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific variability at interannual timescales. Through atmospheric teleconnections, ENSO exerts large influences worldwide, so that improved understanding of this phenomenon can be of critical societal relevance. Extreme ENSO events, in particular, have been associated with devastating weather events in many parts of the world, so that the ability to assess their frequency and probability of occurrence is extremely important. In this study, we describe the ENSO phenomenon in terms of the Recharge Oscillator Model perturbed by multiplicative deterministic chaotic forcing, and use methodologies from the field of Statistical Mechanics to determine the average time between El Niño events of given strengths. This is achieved by describing the system in terms of its probability density function, which is governed by a Fokker Planck equation, and then using the Mean First Passage Time technique for the determination of the mean time between extreme events. The ability to obtain analytical solutions to the problem allows a clear identification of the most relevant model parameters for controlling the frequency of extreme events. The key parameter is the strength of the multiplicative component of the stochastic perturbation, but the decorrelation timescale of the stochastic forcing is also very influential. Results obtained with this approach suggest an average waiting time between extreme events of only some tens of years.

Evolution of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Response to Orbital Forcing During the Holocene and Eemian From Model Simulations

AbstractCharacteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model. There is a tendency toward a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP sea surface temperature annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly a result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolutions on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.