Pacific South American Pattern Research Articles

Asymmetric ENSO teleconnections in a symmetric CO2 concentration pathway

Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual phenomenon occurring in the tropical Pacific, significantly affecting the entire world. The ENSO response to increasing CO2 concentrations have been extensively studied, but the reverse scenario is still not well understood. Here, we investigate the hysteresis of ENSO teleconnections in a CO2 removal simulation of an earth system model. During the ramp-up period of CO2 concentrations, Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns are intensified, with the eastward shift of their poles, which are even further intensified during the ramp-down period. This ENSO teleconnection hysteresis is closely linked to the tropical-origin hysteresis, in which, during the ramp-down periods, the prevalence of the eastern-Pacific type El Niño leads to the hysteresis in the eastern Hemispheric ENSO teleconnections and the enhanced ENSO skewness and the eastward shift of ENSO-induced tropical atmospheric convection do to that in the western Hemispheric ENSO teleconnection. The alterations by the tropical origin are predominantly associated with intensified southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, along with a stronger El Niño-like warming trend. We also demonstrate that the hysteretic change in the mid-latitude mean state over the North Pacific region could lead to hysteresis of the ENSO teleconnection without invoking a tropical origin.

Blocking Events in East Antarctica: Impact on Precipitation and their Association with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Modes

Abstract This study, utilizing ERA5 data from 1979 to 2021, identifies a prevalent occurrence of blocking events in East Antarctica, particularly in the region extending from Wilkes Land to Dronning Maud Land. The genesis of these blocking highs is typically facilitated by the intensification of Rossby waves within the circumpolar westerlies. By classifying the circulation patterns causing the blocking events, the blocking events in East Antarctica are divided into five categories. On the western flank of the blocking high, we observe the transportation of warm and humid air into inland Antarctica, instigating regional snowfall. High precipitation levels are observed in different regions based on the specific location of the blocking high. We also demonstrate that the contribution of atmospheric blockings to total annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events increases from coastal to inland. Over the East Antarctic plateau, the blockings are responsible for at least 15% of total accumulated snowfall and 30% of extreme precipitation events. Finally, we find a significant relationship between the interannual variability in East Antarctic blocking frequency and the phase variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A positive phase of the SAM inhibits an increase in blocking frequency, while a negative phase favors an increase. However, the two Pacific–South American patterns (PSA-1 and PSA-2), characterized by wave trains originating in the tropical Pacific that extend across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, do not significantly influence the interannual variability in East Antarctic blocking frequency.

The role of large-scale drivers in the Amundsen Sea Low variability and associated changes in water isotopes from the Roosevelt Island ice core, Antarctica

Here we examine the water stable-isotope data from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Roosevelt Island is an independent ice rise located at the northeastern margin of the Ross Ice Shelf. In this study, we use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the relationship between RICE ice-core oxygen-18 isotopes (δ18O) and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during the extended austral winter (April–November). The RICE δ18O record is correlated with Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Pacific–South American pattern 1 (PSA1), which both project onto the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) geopotential height field. Pacific sector Southern Ocean, eastern Ross Sea, and West Antarctic’s atmospheric circulation, sea ice, and surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies, as well as RICE δ18O, are strongest when El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SAM are “in-phase”. That is when the SAM − /PSA1 + (El Niño) and SAM + /PSA1 − (La Niña) phasing prevails. When in-phase, the δ18O correlation with the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) is strong in regions (e.g., the Amundsen Sea) where their anomalies associated with SAM and PSA1 show the same sign. SAM − /PSA1 + (El Niño) and SAM + /PSA1 − (La Niña) is associated with positive and negative δ18O anomalies, respectively. RICE δ18O can aid in establishing past natural variability of the strength of the SH high-latitude Pacific sector ENSO-SAM connection and associated atmospheric circulation, sea ice, and SAT extremes.

More profound impact of CP ENSO on Australian spring rainfall in recent decades

Most of Australia was in severe drought from 2018 to early 2020. Here we link this drought to the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) modes associated with Central Pacific (CP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Over the last 20 years, the occurrence frequency of CP El Niño has increased. This study extends the previous understanding of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño-Australian rainfall teleconnections, exhibiting that CP El Niño can bring much broader and stronger rainfall deficiencies than EP El Niño during austral spring (September–November) over the northern Australia (NAU), central inland Australia and eastern Australia (EAU). The correlations between SST fields and rainfall in three Cluster regions divided by clustering analysis also confirm this, with rainfall variability in most of Australia except southern Australia (SAU) most significantly driven by CP ENSO. Also, we demonstrate that the CP El Niño affects rainfall in extratropical EAU via the Pacific-South American (PSA) pattern. While the influence of EP El Niño is only confined in tropical NAU because its PSA pattern sits far too east to convey its variability. With the development of ENSO diversity since 2000, the footprint of El Niño on Australian rainfall has become more complex.

Interdecadal Variation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave Based on the 20CRV3 Dataset

As a large-scale ocean–atmosphere coupling system in the Southern Hemisphere, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) greatly impacts the global climate. However, the interdecadal variation of the ACW has rarely been studied due to the lack of long-term data. In this research, the latest 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 dataset is used to analyze the interdecadal variations of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) signals in the ACW during 1836–2015. The results indicate that the ACW has not always been present in the recent 180 years, and it has remarkable interdecadal variations. Specifically, the ACW was hard to distinguish before the 1870s. The SLP anomalies propagated eastwards over the South Pacific and South Atlantic during part of the 1880s–1940s. The SST anomalies also have an eastward propagation in the 1880s–1960s. The most active period of the SLP signal is in the 1950s–1990s, while that of the SST signal is in the 1980s–1990s. The ACW has not been significant since the 21st century. The interdecadal variation of the SLP may be related to the variations of the long-term Southern Annular Mode and Pacific-South American pattern, while the interdecadal variation of the SST is more associated with the ENSO.

Intraseasonal variability of ocean surface wind waves in the western South Atlantic: the role of cyclones and the Pacific South American pattern

Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are known to generate extreme significant wave height (swh) values at the ocean surface in the western South Atlantic (wSA), which are highly influenced by intraseasonal scales. This work aims to investigate the importance of intraseasonal timescales (30–180 d) in the regional climatology of waves and its atmospheric forcing. The variability is explained by analyzing the storm track modulation due to westerly winds. These winds present timescales and spatial patterns compatible with the intraseasonal component of the Pacific South American (PSA) patterns. The analyses are made using ECMWF’s ERA5 from 1979 to 2019 and a database of extratropical cyclones based on the same reanalysis. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of the 10 m zonal wind and swh are used to assess the regime of westerlies and waves in the wSA. The EOF1 of the 10 m zonal wind (u10) presented a core centered at 45∘ W and 40∘ S, while the EOF2 is represented by two cores organized into a seesaw pattern with a center between 30–40∘ S and another to the south of 40∘ S. Composites of cyclone genesis and track densities as well as swh fields were calculated based on the phases of both EOFs. In short, EOF phases presenting cores with a positive (negative) u10 anomaly provide a favorable (unfavorable) environment for cyclone genesis and track densities and, therefore, positive (negative) swh anomalies. The modulation of the cyclone tracks is significant for extreme values of the swh. The spatial patterns of the EOFs of u10 are physically and statistically consistent with 200 and 850 hPa geopotential height signals from the Pacific, indicating the importance of the remote influence of the PSA patterns over the wSA.

Linking the atmospheric Pacific-South American mode with oceanic variability and predictability

While Pacific climate variability is largely understood based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific focused Pacific decadal oscillation and the basin-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation, the role of the South Pacific, including atmospheric drivers and cross-scale interactions, has received less attention. Using reanalysis data and model outputs, here we propose a paradigm for South Pacific climate variability whereby the atmospheric Pacific-South American (PSA) mode acts to excite multiscale spatiotemporal responses in the upper South Pacific Ocean. We find the second mid-troposphere PSA pattern is fundamental to stochastically generate a mid-latitude sea surface temperature quadrupole pattern that represents the optimal precursor for the predictability and evolution of both the South Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO several seasons in advance. We find that the PSA mode is the key driver of oceanic variability in the South Pacific subtropics that generates a potentially predictable climate signal linked to the tropics.

Utilizing Ice Core and Climate Model Data to Understand Seasonal West Antarctic Variability

AbstractReconstructions of past West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) climate rely on the isotopologues of water recorded in ice cores which extend the local surface temperature record back tens of thousands of years. Here, we utilize continuous flow sampling and novel back-diffusion techniques with the WAIS Divide ice core (WDCobs) to construct a seasonal record of the δ18O value of the precipitation (δ18Op) at the time of deposition from 1980-2000. We then use a water isotope enabled global climate model, iCESM1, to establish seasonal drivers of WAIS climate and of δ18Op variability at the WAIS Divide location to compare with the WDCobs and MERRA2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the WAIS seasonal climate variability is driven by the position and strength of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) caused by variations in the Southern Annual Mode and the two Pacific-South American patterns (PSA1 and PSA2). The largest year-to-year seasonal δ18Op anomalies at the WAIS Divide location occur with respect to PSA2 during austral winter (JJA) as a result of an eastward displacement of the ASL that shifts the associated onshore winds towards the Weddell Sea, reducing temperatures and precipitation near the WAIS Divide location. Additionally, the iCESM1 experiment suggests that changes to the moisture path from the source to the WAIS Divide location is an important driver of seasonal WDCobs δ18Op variability. This work highlights the potential of using a single ice core to reconstruct past WAIS climate at seasonal timescales.

Statistical characteristics of extreme daily precipitation during 1501 BCE–1849 CE in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. In this study, we analyze extreme daily precipitation during the pre-industrial period from 1501 BCE to 1849 CE in simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2. A peak-over-threshold (POT) extreme value analysis is employed to examine characteristics of extreme precipitation and to identify connections of extreme precipitation with the external forcing and with modes of internal variability. The POT analysis shows that extreme precipitation with similar statistical characteristics, i.e., the probability density distributions, tends to cluster spatially. There are differences in the distribution of extreme precipitation between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors and between the northern high and southern low latitudes. Extreme precipitation during the pre-industrial period is largely influenced by modes of internal variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American, and Pacific South American patterns, among others, and regional surface temperatures. In general, the modes of variability exhibit a statistically significant connection to extreme precipitation in the vicinity to their regions of action. The exception is ENSO, which shows more widespread influence on extreme precipitation across the Earth. In addition, the regions with which extreme precipitation is more associated, either by a mode of variability or by the regional surface temperature, are distinguished. Regional surface temperatures are associated with extreme precipitation over lands at the extratropical latitudes and over the tropical oceans. In other regions, the influence of modes of variability is still dominant. Effects of the changes in the orbital parameters on extreme precipitation are rather weak compared to those of the modes of internal variability and of the regional surface temperatures. Still, some regions in central Africa, southern Asia, and the tropical Atlantic ocean show statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and orbital forcing, implying that in these regions, extreme precipitation has increased linearly during the 3351-year pre-industrial period. Tropical volcanic eruptions affect extreme precipitation more clearly in the short term up to a few years, altering both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. However, more apparent changes are found in the frequency than the intensity of extreme precipitation. After eruptions, the return periods of extreme precipitation increase over the extratropical regions and the tropical Pacific, while a decrease is found in other regions. The post-eruption changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation are associated with ENSO, which itself is influenced by tropical eruptions. Overall, the results show that climate simulations are useful to complement the information on pre-industrial extreme precipitation, as they elucidate statistical characteristics and long-term connections of extreme events with natural variability.

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has global climatic implications, necessitating understanding of its observed and projected changes. This Review brings together knowledge of ENSO in a warming climate, revealing projected increases in ENSO magnitude, as well as ENSO-related rainfall and sea surface temperature variability.

Identifying key driving mechanisms of heat waves in central Chile

This study explores the main drivers of heat wave (HW) events in central Chile using state-of-the-art reanalysis data (ERA5) and observations during the extended austral summer season (November to March) for the period 1979–2018. Frequency and intensity aspects of the HW events are considered using the total number of the HW events per season and the amplitude. We first contrast ERA5 with several surface meteorological stations in central Chile to evaluate its ability to capture daily maximum temperature variability and the HW events. We then use synoptic- and large-scale fields and teleconnection patterns to address the most favorable conditions of the HW events from a climatological perspective as well as from the extreme January 2017 HW event that swept central Chile with temperature records and wildfires. ERA5 tends to capture temperature extremes and the HW events at the inland stations; on the contrary, it has difficulties in capturing the maximum temperature variability at the coastal stations, which is plausible given the complex terrain features and confined coastal climate zone (only $$\sim $$ 7% of all grid boxes within central Chile). The composite HW days based on ERA5 reveals a mid-level trough-ridge dipole pattern exhibiting a blocking anticyclone on the surface over a large part of southwest South America. Relatively dry and warm easterly flow appears to accompany the anomalous warming in a large part of central Chile. The temporal evolution of the HW events yields a wave-like propagation pattern and enhancement of trough-ridge pattern along the South Pacific. This meridional dipole pattern is found to be largely associated with the Pacific South American pattern. In addition, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) appears to be a key component of the HW events in central Chile. In particular, while active MJO phases 2 and 7 promote sub-seasonal patterns that favor the South Pacific dipole mode, synoptic anomalies can superimpose on them and favor the formation of a migrating anticyclone over central-southern Chile and coastal lows over central Chile. Agreeing with the climatological findings, the extreme January 2017 HW analysis suggests that an eastward migratory mid-latitude trough-ridge pattern associated with MJO phase 2 was at work. We highlight that in addition to large- and synoptic-scale features, sub-synoptic processes such as coastal lows can have an important role in shaping the HW events and can lead to amplification of temperature extremes during the HW events.

The Río de la Plata plume dynamics over the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf and its link with the large scale atmospheric variability on interannual timescales

The interannual variability of the Río de la Plata plume over the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf is analyzed based on the global ocean reanalysis ORAP5.0 and the global atmospheric reanalysis Era-Interim for the 35-years period 1979–2013. A regional validation of the dataset is performed to evaluate the ocean reanalysis ability to solve the main features associated with the plume dynamics. Following the satisfactory evaluation, an Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is performed to extract characteristic modes of variability of the sea surface salinity. Three leading modes explain 35%, 30% and 15% of the total variance and are associated with large scale atmospheric variability patterns characteristic of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. Mode 1 is characterized by marked salinity anomalies to the south and north of the RdlP Estuary mouth. Its particular imprint is associated with an organized alongshelf wind structure modulated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Mode 2 presents salinity anomalies that extend from the RdlP Estuary to the Uruguayan and southern Brazilian coasts and is related to interannual variability of the RdlP discharge and to regional wind forcing over the plume. Both the river outflow and the atmospheric forcing over the shelf are strongly associated with the Pacific South American pattern (PSA1). Finally, mode 3 presents large salinity anomalies at 38°S, south of the mouth of the RdlP Estuary and is associated with displacements of the freshwater plume due to local wind stress anomalies over the estuary, which are modulated by the PSA2.

A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Climate Variability: Optimal Structure and Stochastic Forcing

AbstractA stochastically forced linear inverse model (LIM) of the combined modes of variability from the tropical and South Pacific Oceans is used to investigate the linear growth of optimal initial perturbations and to identify the spatiotemporal features of the stochastic forcing associated with the atmospheric Pacific–South American patterns 1 and 2 (PSA1 and PSA2). Optimal initial perturbations are shown to project onto El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO), where the inclusion of subsurface South Pacific Ocean temperature variability significantly increases the multiyear linear predictability of the deterministic system. We show that the optimal extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) precursor is associated with the South Pacific meridional mode, which takes from 7 to 9 months to linearly evolve into the final ENSO and SPDO peaks in both the observations and as simulated in an atmosphere-forced ocean model. The optimal subsurface precursor resembles its peak phase, but with a weak amplitude, representing oceanic Rossby waves in the extratropical South Pacific. The stochastic forcing is estimated as the residual by removing the deterministic dynamics from the actual tendency under a centered difference approximation. The resulting stochastic forcing time series satisfies the Gaussian white noise assumption of the LIM. We show that the PSA-like variability is strongly associated with stochastic SST forcing in the tropical and South Pacific Oceans and contributes not only to excite the optimal initial perturbations associated with ENSO and the SPDO but in general to activate the entire stochastic SST forcing, especially in austral summer.

A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability

AbstractA multivariate linear inverse model (LIM) is developed to demonstrate the mechanisms and seasonal predictability of the dominant modes of variability from the tropical and South Pacific Oceans. We construct a LIM whose covariance matrix is a combination of principal components derived from tropical and extratropical sea surface temperature, and South Pacific Ocean vertically averaged temperature anomalies. Eigen-decomposition of the linear deterministic system yields stationary and/or propagating eigenmodes, of which the least damped modes resemble El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO). We show that although the oscillatory periods of ENSO and SPDO are distinct, they have very close damping time scales, indicating that the predictive skill of the surface ENSO and SPDO is comparable. The most damped noise modes occur in the midlatitude South Pacific Ocean, reflecting atmospheric eastward-propagating Rossby wave train variability. We argue that these ocean wave trains occur due to the high-frequency atmospheric variability of the Pacific–South American pattern imprinting onto the surface ocean. The ENSO spring predictability barrier is apparent in LIM predictions initialized in March–May (MAM) but displays a significant correlation skill of up to ~3 months. For the SPDO, the predictability barrier tends to appear in June–September (JAS), indicating remote but delayed influences from the tropics. We demonstrate that subsurface processes in the South Pacific Ocean are the main source of decadal variability and further that by characterizing the upper ocean temperature contribution in the LIM, the seasonal predictability of both ENSO and the SPDO variability is increased.

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

Abstract The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave–topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific–South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific—albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability.

The Relationship between Wave Trains in the Southern Hemisphere Storm Track and Rainfall Extremes over Tasmania

Abstract We assess the large-scale atmospheric dynamics influencing rainfall extremes in Tasmania, located within the Southern Hemisphere storm track. We characterize wet and dry multiday rainfall extremes in western and eastern Tasmania, two distinct climate regimes, and construct atmospheric flow composites around these extreme events. We consider the onset and decay of the events and find a link between Rossby wave trains propagating in the polar jet waveguide and wet and dry extremes across Tasmania. Of note is that the wave trains exhibit varying behavior during the different extremes. In the onset phase of rainfall extremes in western Tasmania, there is a coherent wave train in the Indian Ocean, which becomes circumglobal in extent and quasi-stationary as the event establishes and persists. Wet and dry extremes in this region are influenced by opposite phases of this circumglobal wave train pattern. In eastern Tasmania, wet extremes relate to a propagating wave train, which is first established in the Indian Ocean sector and propagates eastward to the Pacific Ocean sector as the event progresses. During dry extremes in eastern Tasmania, the wave train is first established in the Pacific Ocean, as opposed to Indian Ocean, and persists in this sector for the entire event, with a structure indicative of the Pacific–South American pattern. The findings regarding different wave train forms and their relationship to rainfall extremes have implications for extreme event attribution in other regions around the globe.

Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north.

The mid-latitude westerly winds of the Southern Hemisphere play a central role in the global climate system via Southern Ocean upwelling1, carbon exchange with the deep ocean2, Agulhas leakage (transport of Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic)3 and possibly Antarctic ice-sheet stability4. Meridional shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have been hypothesized to occur5,6 in parallel with the well-documented shifts of the intertropical convergence zone7 in response to Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events- abrupt North Atlantic climate change events of the last ice age. Shifting moisture pathways to West Antarctica8 are consistent with this view but may represent a Pacific teleconnection pattern forced from the tropics9. The full response of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to the DO cycle and its impact on Antarctic temperature remain unclear10. Here we use five ice cores synchronized via volcanic markers to show that the Antarctic temperature response to the DO cycle can be understood as the superposition of two modes: a spatially homogeneous oceanic 'bipolar seesaw' mode that lags behind Northern Hemisphere climate by about 200 years, and a spatially heterogeneous atmospheric mode that is synchronous with abrupt events in the Northern Hemisphere. Temperature anomalies of the atmospheric mode are similar to those associated with present-day Southern Annular Mode variability, rather than the Pacific-South American pattern. Moreover, deuterium-excess records suggest a zonally coherent migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over all ocean basins in phase with Northern Hemisphere climate. Our work provides a simple conceptual framework for understanding circum-Antarctic temperature variations forced by abrupt Northern Hemisphere climate change. We provide observational evidence of abrupt shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, which have previously documented1-3 ramifications for global ocean circulation and atmospheric carbon dioxide. These coupled changes highlight the necessity of a global, rather than a purely North Atlantic, perspective on the DO cycle.

Low-Frequency Climate Modes and Antarctic Sea Ice Variations, 1982–2013

Abstract The NCEP–NCAR composite dataset (comprising sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 500-hPa temperature, and meridional wind stress at 10 m above the surface) is used for compiling a set of climate indices describing the most important physical modes of variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH): the southern annular mode (SAM), semiannual oscillation (SAO), Pacific–South American (PSA), and quasi-stationary zonal wavenumber 3 (ZW3) patterns. Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends. The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32-yr period (1982–2013), is the key focus of this paper. The results herein indicate that a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s. This feature is found in association with increased positive SAM and SAO phases detected in terms of upward annual and seasonal trends (in autumn and summer) and upward decadal trends. In addition, the SIC shows upward annual, spring, and summer trends, indicating the insulation of Antarctica from the warmer flows in the midlatitudes. This picture of variations is also found to be consistent with the upward trends detected for the PSA and ZW3 patterns on the annual scale and during the last two decades. Evidence of a more frequent occurrence of the PSA–ZW3 combination could explain, in part, the significant increase of the regional and total Antarctic sea ice coverages.

Dominant Covarying Climate Signals in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice Influence during the Last Three Decades

A composite dataset (comprising geopotential height, sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface winds, precipitation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, latent plus sensible heat fluxes, and sea ice concentration) has been investigated with the aim of revealing the dominant time scales of variability from 1982 to 2013. Three covarying climate signals associated with variations in the sea ice distribution around Antarctica have been detected through the application of the multiple-taper method with singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). Features of the established patterns of variation over the Southern Hemisphere extratropics have been identified in each of these three climate signals in the form of coupled or individual oscillations. The climate patterns considered here are the southern annular mode (SAM), the Pacific–South American (PSA) teleconnection, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), and the zonal wavenumber-3 (ZW3) mode. It is shown that most of the sea ice temporal variance is concentrated at the quasi-triennial scale resulting from the constructive superposition of the PSA and ZW3 patterns. In addition, the combination of the SAM and SAO patterns is found to promote the interannual sea ice variations underlying a general change in the Southern Ocean atmospheric and oceanic circulations. These two modes of variability are also found to be consistent with the occurrence of the positive SAM/negative PSA (SAM+/PSA−) or negative SAM/positive PSA (SAM−/PSA+) combinations, which could have favored the cooling of the sub-Antarctic region and important changes in the Antarctic sea ice distribution since 2000.

A Multiscale Reexamination of the Pacific–South American Pattern

Abstract The authors undertake a multiscale spectral reexamination of the variability of the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern and the mechanisms by which this variability occurs. Time scales from synoptic to interannual are investigated, focusing on the means by which tropical variability is communicated to the midlatitudes and on in situ forcing within the midlatitude waveguides. Particular interest is paid to what fraction of the total variability associated with the PSA, occurring on interannual time scales, is attributable to tropical forcing relative to that occurring on synoptic and intraseasonal time scales via internal waveguide dynamics. In general, it is found that the eastward-propagating wave train pattern typically associated with the PSA manifests across time scales from synoptic to interannual, with the majority of the variability occurring on synoptic-to-intraseasonal time scales largely independent of tropical convection. It is found that the small fraction of the total variance with a tropical signal occurs via the zonal component of the thermal wind modulating both the subtropical and polar jets. The respective roles of the Hadley circulation and stationary Rossby wave sources are also examined. Further, a PSA-like mode is identified in terms of the slow components of higher-order modes of tropospheric geopotential height. This study reestablishes the multiscale nonlinear nature of the PSA modes arising largely as a manifestation of internal midlatitude waveguide dynamics and local disturbances.