Pacific El Research Articles

Dust pollution in China affected by different spatial and temporal types of El Niño

Abstract. Dust is an important aerosol affecting air quality in China in the winter and spring seasons. Dust in China is potentially influenced by the interannual climate variability associated with El Niño. Here, the impacts of El Niño with different temporal and spatial types on dust pollution in boreal winter and spring in China and the potential mechanisms are investigated using a state-of-the-art Earth system model (E3SMv1). We find that the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño both increase wintertime dust concentrations by 5–50 µg m−3 over central-eastern China. Due to a stronger wind and lower relative humidity, which favor dust emissions near sources, and a strengthened northwesterly and reduced precipitation, which are conducive to dust transport, dust concentrations during the CP El Niño are 5–20 µg m−3 higher in northern China than during the EP El Niño, although the changes are mostly insignificant. El Niño with a short duration (SD) increases boreal winter dust concentrations by 20–100 µg m−3 over northern China relative to the climatological mean, while there is a decrease of 5–50 µg m−3 during the long-duration (LD) El Niño, which is also related to the El Niño-induced changes in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and relative humidity. In the following spring season, all types of El Niño events enhance dust over northern China, but only the increase during the LD El Niño is statistically significant, suggesting that the weaker intensity but longer duration of the LD El Niño events can significantly affect spring dust in China. Our results contribute to the current knowledge of the influence of El Niño on dust pollution, which has profound implications for air pollution control and dust storm prediction.

The Essential Role of Westerly Wind Bursts in ENSO Dynamics and Extreme Events Quantified in Model “Wind Stress Shaving” Experiments

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs)—brief but strong westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific—are believed to play an important role in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, but quantifying their effects is challenging. Here, we investigate the cumulative effects of WWBs on ENSO characteristics, including the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, via modified coupled model experiments within Community Earth System Model (CESM1) in which we progressively reduce the impacts of wind stress anomalies associated with model-generated WWBs. In these “wind stress shaving” experiments we limit momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean above a preset threshold, thus “shaving off” wind bursts. To reduce the tropical Pacific mean state drift, both westerly and easterly wind bursts are removed, although the changes are dominated by WWB reduction. As we impose progressively stronger thresholds, both ENSO amplitude and the frequency of extreme El Niño decrease, and ENSO becomes less asymmetric. The warming center of El Niño shifts westward, indicating less frequent and weaker eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Removing most wind burst–related wind stress anomalies reduces ENSO mean amplitude by 22%. The essential role of WWBs in the development of extreme El Niño events is highlighted by the suppressed eastward migration of the western Pacific warm pool and hence a weaker Bjerknes feedback under wind shaving. Overall, our results reaffirm the importance of WWBs in shaping the characteristics of ENSO and its extreme events and imply that WWB changes with global warming could influence future ENSO.

Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s

Despite decades of effort, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. This is due to the weaker coupling between the ENSO and well-known precursors in tropical ocean basins, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Here we show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), which is characterized by an east-west-oriented sea surface temperature dipole pattern over the southern Indian Ocean, has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead. The role of the SIOD in the subsequent year’s ENSO is distinctive from the equatorial Indian Ocean Dipole mode in that it prolongs the ENSO period. The westward-shifted ENSO has sustained simultaneous SIOD events for longer periods since the 2000s, which leads to weak but persistent westerly anomalies over the western Pacific. This eventually results in the development of the Central Pacific El Niño in the subsequent year.

The Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Global Seasonal Droughts

Previous studies have revealed that global droughts are significantly affected by different types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. However, quantifying the temporal and spatial characteristics of global droughts, particularly those occurring during combined ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, is still largely unexplored. This study adopts the severity-area-duration (SAD) method to identify large-scale drought events and the Liang-Kleeman Information Flow (LKIF) to demonstrate the cause-and-effect relationship between the Nino3.4/Nino3/Nino4/Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and the global gridded three-month standardized precipitation index (SPI3) during 1951–2020. The five main achievements are as follows: (1) the intensity and coverage of droughts reach a peak in the developing and mature phases of El Niño, while La Niña most influences drought in its mature and decaying phases. (2) Compared with Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, the impacts of Central Pacific (CP) El Niño on global drought are more extensive and complex, especially in Africa and South America. (3) The areal extent and intensity of drought are greater in most land areas during the summer and autumn of the combined events. (4) The spatial variabilities in dryness and wetness on land are greater during combined CP El Niño and pIOD events, significantly in China and South America. (5) The quantified causalities from LKIF reveal the driving mechanism of ENSO/IOD on SPI3, supporting the findings above. These results lead to the potential for improving seasonal drought prediction, which is further discussed.

Impacts of different types of El Niño events on water quality over the Corn Belt, United States

Abstract. The United States Corn Belt region, which primarily includes two large basins, namely, the Ohio–Tennessee River basin (OTRB) and the Upper Mississippi River basin (UMRB), is responsible for the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. Climate patterns such as El Niño can affect the runoff and thus the water quality over the Corn Belt. In this study, the impacts of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events on water quality over the Corn Belt region were analyzed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. Our results indicated that, at the outlets, annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads decreased by 13.1 % and 14.0 % at OTRB and 18.5 % and 19.8 % at UMRB, respectively, during the EP El Niño years, whereas during the CP El Niño years, they increased by 3.3 % and 4.6 % at OTRB and 5.7 % and 4.4 % at UMRB, respectively. On the subbasin scales, more subbasins showed negative (positive) anomalies of TN and TP during EP (CP) El Niño. A seasonal study confirmed that water quality anomalies showed the opposite patterns during EP and CP El Niño years. At the outlet of OTRB, seasonal anomalies in nutrients matched the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, illustrating the importance of climate variables associated with the two types of El Niño events on water quality in the region. At the UMRB, TN and TP were also influenced by agricultural activities within the region, and their anomalies became greater in the growing seasons during both EP and CP El Niño years. A quantitative analysis of precipitation, temperature, and their effects on nutrients suggested that precipitation played a more important role than temperature did in altering the water quality in the Corn Belt region during both types of El Niño years. We also found specific watersheds (located in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana) that faced the greatest increases in TN and TP loads and were affected by both the precipitation and agricultural activities during the CP El Niño years. The information generated from this study may help proper decision-making for water environment protection over the Corn Belt.

Clustering tropical cyclone genesis on ENSO timescales in the Southwest Pacific

Tropical cyclones (TCs) as a natural hazard pose a major threat and risk to the human population globally. This threat is expected to increase in a warming climate as the frequency of severe TCs is expected to increase. In this study, the influence of different monthly sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the locations and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region is investigated. Using principal component analysis and k-means clustering of monthly SST between 1970 and 2019, nine statistically different SST patterns are identified. Our findings show that the more prominent ENSO patterns such as the Modoki El Niño (i.e., Modoki I and Modoki II) and Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño impact the frequency and location of TCG significantly. Our results enhance the overall understanding of the TCG variability and the relationship between TCG and SST configurations in the SWP region. The results of this study may support early warning system in SWP by improving seasonal outlooks and quantification of the level of TC-related risks for the vulnerable Pacific Island communities.

Frequency of different types of El Niño events under global warming

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant natural climate pattern that influences the global climate on subdecadal timescales. Thus, a better understanding of the impacts of global warming on the characteristics of ENSO events offers large socioeconomic benefits. Changes in the frequency of the eastern Pacific (EP), central Pacific (CP) and total El Niño events are analysed in the future period (2051–2100) under the two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (i.e., SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) compared to the historical period (1951–2000) using outputs of eight models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Types of El Niño events are diagnosed based on pattern correlation coefficients (PCCs) between monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the first two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on the ensemble of models, the number of total El Niño events decreases by 26 and 16% under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the future compared to the historical period. A smaller decrease in the number of total El Niño events under the faster warming rate of the SSP5‐8.5 scenario suggests that the response of ENSO dynamics to global warming is not linear. Analysis of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5) dataset during the period 1951–2020 indicates that the ratio of the number of CP El Niño to EP El Niño has substantially increased over the past two decades. Nevertheless, under both the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios in the future period, the ratio of the number of CP El Niño to EP El Niño does not change considerably compared to that in the historical period. This suggests that the recent increase in the frequency of CP El Niño could be a result of multidecadal variations rather than anthropogenic global warming.

More profound impact of CP ENSO on Australian spring rainfall in recent decades

Most of Australia was in severe drought from 2018 to early 2020. Here we link this drought to the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) modes associated with Central Pacific (CP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Over the last 20 years, the occurrence frequency of CP El Niño has increased. This study extends the previous understanding of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño-Australian rainfall teleconnections, exhibiting that CP El Niño can bring much broader and stronger rainfall deficiencies than EP El Niño during austral spring (September–November) over the northern Australia (NAU), central inland Australia and eastern Australia (EAU). The correlations between SST fields and rainfall in three Cluster regions divided by clustering analysis also confirm this, with rainfall variability in most of Australia except southern Australia (SAU) most significantly driven by CP ENSO. Also, we demonstrate that the CP El Niño affects rainfall in extratropical EAU via the Pacific-South American (PSA) pattern. While the influence of EP El Niño is only confined in tropical NAU because its PSA pattern sits far too east to convey its variability. With the development of ENSO diversity since 2000, the footprint of El Niño on Australian rainfall has become more complex.

North China Spring Rainfall and Its Linkage with SST and Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract Spring rainfall is important for agriculture and economics in North China (NC). Thus, there is an imperative need for accurate seasonal prediction of the spring precipitation. This study implements a novel rainfall framework to improve understanding of NC spring rainfall. The framework is built based on a three-cluster normal mixture model. Distribution parameters are sampled using Bayesian inference and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The probability behaviors of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall events can be reflected by the three rainfall clusters, respectively. Analysis of 61-yr data indicates that moderate rainfall makes the largest contribution (67%) to the total rainfall amount. The moderate rainfall intensity is mainly influenced by the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the previous season over the equatorial eastern Pacific, and rainfall frequency is influenced by geopotential height anomaly in the mid- to high latitudes in spring. It is also found that more extreme precipitation events can be observed in the spring following an eastern Pacific El Niño event in the previous autumn and winter. Based on these relationships, we develop a multiple linear regression model. Hindcasts for spring precipitation using the model indicates that its anomaly correlation is 0.48, significant at the 99% confidence level. The result suggests that the newly developed model can well predict spring rainfall amount in NC.

Unraveling environmental drivers of chlorophyll seasonal and interannual variability in the East China Sea

Phytoplankton, the dominant marine primary producers, are considered highly sensitive indicators of ecosystem conditions and changes. The East China Sea (ECS) includes a variety of oceanic and coastal domains that collectively challenge our understanding of phytoplankton dynamics and controls. This study evaluates the seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton in the ECS and the underlying environmental determinants based on 22-year satellite chlorophyll (Chl-a) data and concurrent environmental variables. A seasonal spring bloom was found in the ECS, classically driven by increased stratification, which is associated with increases in sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), net heat flux (NHF), and reduced wind mixing. The most significant Chl-a interannual variability was present in a triangular area surrounded by three SST fronts in the southern ECS during springtime. Anomalously high Chl-a (~30% increase) occurred with increased SST and NHF and enhanced wind mixing during negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modes. This seems to be contrary to the stratification control model, which fits the seasonal spring bloom observed in this region. More front activities during the negative PDO and ENSO could be associated with Chl-a increase in this triangular area. Contrary to this mixing control scenario, a significant Chl-a increase (~36% increase) also developed during the positive PDO and ENSO modes after 2014 under conditions of higher SST, NHF, and weaker wind mixing following the stratification control scenario. This study used biologically relevant objective regionalization of a heterogeneous area to elucidate phytoplankton bloom dynamics and controls. Our analyses highlight the triangular area in the ECS for its region-specific linkages between Chl-a and multiple climate-sensitive environmental drivers, as well as the potential structural and functional variability in this region.

ENSO atmospheric feedbacks under global warming and their relation to mean-state changes

Two atmospheric feedbacks play an important role in the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the amplifying zonal wind feedback and the damping heat flux feedback. Here we investigate how and why both feedbacks change under global warming in climate models participating in the 5th and 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The amplifying zonal wind feedback over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) becomes significantly stronger in two third of the models, on average by 12 ± 7% in these models. The heat flux damping feedback over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific (EEP and CEP, respectively) increases as well in nearly all models, with the damping effect increasing on average by 18 ± 11%. The simultaneous strengthening of the two feedbacks can be explained by the stronger warming in the EEP relative to the WEP and the off-equatorial regions, which shifts the rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation to the east and increases the mean convection over the CEP. This in turn leads to a stronger vertical wind response during ENSO events over the CEP that strengthens both atmospheric feedbacks. We separate the climate models into sub-ensembles with STRONG and WEAK ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, as 2/3 of the models underestimate both feedbacks under present-day conditions by more than 40%, causing an error compensation in the ENSO dynamics. The biased mean state in WEAK in 20C constrains the ENSO atmospheric feedback projection in 21C, as the models of the WEAK sub-ensemble also have weaker ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in 21C. Further, due to the more realistic dynamics and teleconnections, we postulate that one should have more confidence in the ENSO predictions with models belonging to the STRONG sub-ensemble. Finally, we analyze the relation between ENSO amplitude change and ENSO atmospheric feedback change. We find that models simulating an eastward shift of the zonal wind feedback and increasing precipitation over the EEP during Eastern Pacific El Niño events tend to predict a larger ENSO amplitude in response to global warming.

Revisiting the different responses of the following Indian summer monsoon rainfall to the diversity of El Niño events

There is evidence that the interannual relationship between El Niño events and the following Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has weakened with the more frequent occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. We revisited the following ISMR responses to the two different types of El Niño events using observations and reanalysis datasets. Our results show that the ISMR anomalies associated with eastern Pacific (EP) and CP El Niño events are different, with decreased (increased) rainfall in early summer (June–July) following EP (CP) El Niño events. This is primarily attributed to the different responses to anomalous warming of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Indian Ocean (NIO), which is characterized by double peaks in the warming SST during EP El Niño events, but only one peak during CP El Niño events. For EP El Niño events, the second SST warming peak in early summer contributes to the lower level antisymmetric wind pattern over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), which delays the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and decreases the supply of moisture to India, implying a decrease in the ISMR. By contrast, for CP El Niño events, the cooling SST over the western TIO directly induces a significantly positive meridional SST gradient and drives the lower level southwesterly wind anomalies, resulting in an eastward shift in the decreased antisymmetric winds over TIO and the early onset of ISM. These circulation features are associated with anomalous upper-level divergence over TIO and sinking over India, jointly leading to the excess ISMR in early summer. These results suggest that, in addition to the key role of the warming of the NIO SST, cooling of the SST over the western TIO during CP El Niño events should be considered carefully in understanding the El Niño–ISMR relationship.

Seasonally Modulated El Niño Precipitation Response in the Eastern Pacific and Its Dependence on El Niño Flavors

Abstract Many previous studies have shown that El Niño exhibits a strong seasonality in its teleconnections and regional climate impacts. Aside from the seasonal synchronization of El Niño anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) itself, seasonal differences in its associated climate impacts could also stem from the local background seasonal cycle. During the El Niño developing boreal autumn (August–October) and decaying boreal spring (February–April), the El Niño–associated precipitation anomalies display remarkably different patterns over the eastern tropical Pacific despite similar SST anomaly amplitudes. This strong seasonality can be largely attributed to the seasonal cycle of the eastern tropical Pacific SST background state with the cold tongue being strongest in autumn and weakest in spring. Therefore, the El Niño–associated SST in spring is likely to exceed the convection threshold on both sides of the equator, leading to an approximately symmetric precipitation response about the equator. In contrast, this symmetric precipitation response is absent in autumn since the SST near and south of the equator remains below the threshold and pronounced eastern tropical precipitation anomalies can only be observed in the warm Northern Hemisphere. This seasonality is mainly embodied in eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events rather than central Pacific (CP) El Niño events since the westward-shifted warm SST anomalies for the latter cannot establish an effective cooperation with the cold tongue SST annual cycle. This study has important implications for regional climate prediction by involving the different local precipitation responses over the tropical eastern Pacific.

Reduced ENSO Variability due to a Collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapses have punctuated Earth’s climate in the past, and future projections suggest a weakening and potential collapse in response to global warming and high-latitude ocean freshening. Among its most important teleconnections, the AMOC has been shown to influence El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although there is no clear consensus on the tendency of this influence or the mechanisms at play. In this study, we investigate the effect of an AMOC collapse on ENSO by adding freshwater in the North Atlantic in a global climate model. The tropical Pacific mean-state changes caused by the AMOC collapse are found to alter the governing ENSO feedbacks, damping the growth rate of ENSO. As a result, ENSO variability is found to decrease by ∼30% due to weaker air–sea coupling associated with a cooler tropical Pacific and an intensified Walker circulation. The decreased ENSO variability manifests in ∼95% less frequent extreme El Niño events and a shift toward more prevalent central Pacific El Niño than eastern Pacific El Niño events, marked by a reduced ENSO nonlinearity and asymmetry. These results provide mechanistic insights into the possible behavior of past and future ENSO in a scenario of a much weakened or collapsed AMOC. Significance Statement The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has collapsed in the past and a future collapse due to greenhouse warming is a plausible scenario. An AMOC shutdown would have major ramifications for global climate, with extensive impacts on climate phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest source of year-to-year climate variability on the planet. Using numerical simulations, we show that an AMOC shutdown leads to weaker ENSO variability, manifesting in 95% reduction in extreme El Niño events, and a shift of the ENSO pattern toward the central Pacific. This study sheds light on the mechanisms behind these changes, with implications for interpreting past and future ENSO variability.

Single-year and double-year El Niños

Compared with well documented and frequent occurrence of multi-year La Niña, double-year El Niño is less frequent and has not been well investigated. Both of them are a discrepancy from the cyclic behavior of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and deserve investigation. Here, we demonstrate the diversity of single- and double-year El Niño events in their strengths, flavors, as well as associations with the recharge/discharge processes. The possible different climate impacts are also discussed. During 1950–2021, 75% of El Niño events persist for one year, and 25% of them last for two years. Both central and eastern Pacific type El Niños occur in the single-year and double-year El Niños with various strengths. On average, there is no relationship between the initial time and duration of an El Niño event. Compared with the single-year El Niños, the averaged warm water volume (WWV) is larger in the peak and declines slower for the double-year El Niños, suggesting that a persistently recharged heat condition of the equatorial Pacific is a precondition for the emergence of a second-year El Niño. The faster decline of WWV in the single-year El Niños is associated with the in-phase decrease of its intraseasonal-interseasonal and interannual components, while the slower decline of WWV in the double-year El Niños is determined by the interannual component. In addition, the single-year and double-year El Niño may have different impacts on regional climate.

Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation by central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation on decadal and interannual timescales

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of central Pacific (CP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) on decadal and interannual timescales. The CP ENSO‐TC frequency relationship is strong and significant only on decadal timescales, with enhanced TC formation over most of the WNP associated with warm CP ENSO phases. TC formation changes, driven by CP ENSO, exhibit a southeast–northwest dipole pattern on interannual timescales, similar to the typical pattern induced by eastern Pacific ENSO. Associated with warm CP ENSO phases on decadal timescales are increases in TC formation east of 125°E, while increases in TC formation east of 140°E are observed with warm CP ENSO phases on interannual timescales. These increases in TC activity are primarily caused by favourable dynamic conditions, including increased 850‐hPa relative vorticity and 200‐hPa divergence and decreased 850–200‐hPa vertical wind shear. The main TC formation difference on decadal and interannual timescales is concentrated over the longitudinal band of 125°–140°E, where reduced TC formation is observed on interannual timescales during CP El Niño years, predominately due to suppressed thermodynamic factors, for example, reduced maximum potential intensity and 700–500‐hPa relative humidity. We find insignificant (significant) changes in thermodynamic conditions between 125°E and 140°E due to weak (strong) descending motion in the western cell of the anomalous Walker circulation on decadal (interannual) timescales. This can be explained by different patterns of CP ENSO‐induced sea surface temperature anomalies on different timescales.

Using a Lagrangian particle tracking model to evaluate impacts of El Niño-related advection on euphausiids in the southern California Current System

We propose a framework to examine the extent to which advection alone can explain spring biomass fluctuations of six euphausiid species in the southern California Current System (CCS) between 2008 and 2017. We modeled population changes as fluxes from defined source boxes using currents from the California State Estimate (CASE), a regional optimization of the MIT general circulation model. This period encompasses a Central Pacific El Niño (2009–10), Warm Anomaly (2014–15) and Eastern Pacific El Niño (2015–16). Total spring populations of all six species show strongest positive correlations with time-lagged flows from the preceding November–December. Three cool-water species (Euphausia pacifica, Nematoscelis difficilis, Thysanoessa spinifera) show opposite patterns for their calyptopis (larval) and adult phases, with strongest positive correlations of calyptopes with February–March flow suggesting periods of in situ reproduction. In contrast, three subtropical species (Nyctiphanes simplex, Euphausia eximia, Euphausia gibboides) show consistent correlation patterns with flow across the adult and calyptopis phases, suggesting advection of entire populations into the region during periods of enhanced favorable flows. We tested whether interannual variations in spring population size were influenced by different winter-origin waters during El Niño compared to non-Niño years. We found that cool-water species associate less strongly and subtropical species associate more strongly with southern-origin waters during anomalous years. Advection alone accounts for varying proportions of species fluctuations, with strongest influences for N. difficilis and T. spinifera. Explicit measurements of growth and mortality rates are needed to further resolve the additional factors influencing euphausiid populations during anomalous events, with implications for future forecasts.

Seasonal Evolution of Chlorophyll-a in the North Indian Ocean Associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Two Types of El Niño Events

To investigate the main modes of interannual variation of chlorophyll-a (Chla) with seasonal evolution and its variation cycle in the North Indian Ocean based on satellite-derived products during 1998–2016, a season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) analysis and power spectrum analysis based on Fourier transform are applied in the study. The first three dominate modes reveal distinct Chla variability, as the S-EOF1 features by one dipole pattern have a negative anomaly in the central western Indian Ocean and a positive anomaly off the Java–Sumatra coasts, which is mainly synchronously associated with the climate indices of the positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and eastern Pacific El Nino (EP-El Niño). The S-EOF2 indicates a tripolar structure with positive anomalies located in the central Indian Ocean surrounded by two negative anomalies, which is one year behind a positive IOD and EP-El Niño event. The S-EOF3 exhibits a different dipole distribution, with a positive anomaly in the central west and a negative anomaly in the southeast, synchronized or lagging behind the central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Niño). Moreover, regarding the correlation between the main modes of interannual variation and the IOD and El Nino events, the dynamic parameters (such as SST, SLA, rain, and wind) of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean are discussed using time-delay correlation and linear regression analysis to explain the key factors and possible influencing mechanism of the joint seasonal and interannual variations of Chla in the northern Indian Ocean.

Seasonal prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River based on random forest

The 2020 summer extreme precipitation event over the Mid-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River in China caused widespread socioeconomic impacts, with a death toll of hundreds and direct economic loss of half billion CNY. Seasonal prediction of summer extreme precipitation event over this region, however, has long been a challenge, due to the underlying interactions among various atmospheric and oceanic factors. Based on the random forest (RF), a classical machine learning method, a series of predictive models are trained and tested on the samples during 1951–2019, with 14 preceding atmospheric and oceanic indices as potential predictors. It is found that the model based on 3 indices has optimal performance in terms of the distinguishing capacity between extreme and non-extreme events. For the 2020 summer extreme event, the model predicts a large probability far beyond the climatological mean level, indicating a very likely extreme event. Interpretation of the decision trees in the RF model reveals 3 main decision paths leading to an extreme precipitation event over this region. The first one is driven by a strong eastern tropical Pacific (EP) El Niño which starts to decay in spring but does not totally disappear in summer. The second one results from the combined effect of an EP La Niña and normal sea surface temperature over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The last one is also associated with a decaying EP El Niño, but the EP El Niño here is much weaker than that in the first path. Both the Pacific-El Niño-independent warming of NIO and cooling in the eastern tropical western Pacific in spring play important roles. The RF integrates different nonlinear physical mechanisms in a model and discovers weak signals which are easily omitted by traditional linear methods. The trained model can self-improve with increasing samples and serve as a reference for operational prediction of extreme precipitation events in the region.

Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation

Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key source of multi-year El Niño events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger a Central Pacific El Niño during the subsequent winter, which excites atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics that re-energize the NPO variability, then re-triggers another El Niño event in the following winter, finally resulting in persistent El Niño-like states. Model experiments, with the NPO forcing assimilated to constrain atmospheric circulation, reproduce the observed connection between NPO forcing and the occurrence of multi-year El Niño events. Future projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 models demonstrate that with enhanced NPO variability under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent multi-year El Niño events should be expected. We conclude that properly accounting for the effects of the NPO on the evolution of El Niño events may improve multi-year El Niño prediction and projection.