This paper presents techniques for the prediction of ozone concentrations in Albany, New York. A methodology is described for the decomposition of the time series of ozone and other atmospheric variables into long-term, seasonal, and short-term variations. Solar radiation appears to be the main atmospheric factor for the explanation of the long-term component of ozone time series. The vector autoregressive model and the Kalman filter are used for the prediction of the short-term ozone component. The coefficient of determination, R2, for the prediction of the short-term component of ozone was found to be the highest when we consider the short-term component of the time series for solar radiation and temperature.
Read full abstract