Ozone recovery as seen in perspective of the Dobson spectrophotometer measurements at Belsk (52°N, 21°E) in the period 1963–2008

Abstract

The total ozone monthly means derived from measurements by the Dobson spectrophotometer at Belsk (52°N, 21°E) and satellite observations over central and midlatitudinal Europe are analyzed for the long-term changes between 1995 and 2008. Standard explanatory variables representing physical and chemical processes known to influence the ozone distribution are considered. The potential proxies are: atmospheric loading by the ozone depleting substances characterized by the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) time series, various drivers of ozone dynamical variability including solar cycle, teleconnection patterns, temperature at 50 hPa, and pressure at the tropopause level. The multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) methodology is used to find optimal set of the explanatory variables and shape of the anthropogenic trend curve. Following options for the trend curve are examined: proportional to EESC, piecewise linear (with the turning points in 1980 and 1995), and selected from a smooth curve fit to the total ozone time series having “natural variations” removed. Statistical estimates and their uncertainties are calculated using block bootstrapping. The analyses indicate that ozone over Belsk, in central Europe, and in midlatitudinal Europe reaches at least first stage of recovery as defined by the World Meteorological Organization: a statistically significant reduction in the rate of decline. Model using the EESC time series as a proxy for the anthropogenic trend pattern yields even the second stage, i.e., a positive trend in time series that remains after removal dynamical signal from the analyzed data. Substantial seasonal dependent long-term ozone oscillations by the dynamical drivers are revealed causing estimation of the ozone recovery time even more uncertain.