Overpressure Prediction Research Articles

A new AVA attribute based on P-wave and S-wave reflectivities for overpressure prediction

Pore pressure prediction is a key step for safe well drilling operations and is usually performed by deriving a velocity-pressure relationship calibrated to a reference well. However, in the last few decades, other seismic-based methods, such as the Amplitude versus Angle (AVA) technique, have been extended to predict anomalous pressure values. Concerning AVA analysis, in this work, we show that the expected pressure effect on the elastic rock properties is very different from the fluid effect, thus making the classical AVA attributes used for fluid prediction ineffective at highlighting pressure anomalies. Therefore, we propose a new AVA attribute to evidence the decrease in P-wave and S-wave reflectivity that usually occurs when passing from an overlying formation to an underlying overpressured one. This attribute can be easily derived from the intercept and gradient values extracted from the recorded seismic pre-stack data by means of the Shuey equation. To demonstrate the applicability of this new attribute for pore pressure prediction we show examples on synthetic seismic data and three applications to different field datasets over already drilled prospects. In the case of overpressured layers, this attribute shows anomalous responses, thus demonstrating its effectiveness in highlighting anomalous pore pressure regimes. In contrast, no anomalous attribute values are observed in cases characterized by a hydrostatic pore pressure regime.

Comparative analysis of BLEVE mechanical energy and overpressure modelling

The mechanical effects of a BLEVE are overpressure and ejection of fragments. Although fragments reach much longer distances, peak overpressure can be very strong over a certain area. Diverse authors have proposed methodologies for the estimation of the explosion energy and peak overpressure from these type of explosions, based on different thermodynamic and physical assumptions. Here these methodologies are commented and compared. Their predictions, which show an important scattering, are checked by comparison with two sets of experimental data taken from the literature. The results obtained indicate that none of the models take into account Reid’s theory. The models based on ideal gas behaviour and constant volume energy addition, isentropic expansion and isothermal expansion give quite conservative (i.e., high) values of both energy released and overpressure, while those assuming real gas behaviour and adiabatic irreversible expansion give lower values, much closer to the real/experimental ones. The diverse uncertainty factors affecting the prediction of peak overpressure are also commented.

Experimental studies on vented deflagrations in a low strength enclosure

This paper describes an experimental programme on vented hydrogen deflagrations, which formed part of the Hyindoor project, carried out for the EU Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. The purpose of this study was to investigate the validity of analytical models used to calculate overpressures following a low concentration hydrogen deflagration. Other aspects of safety were also investigated, such as lateral flame length resulting from explosion venting. The experimental programme included the investigation of vented hydrogen deflagrations from a 31 m3 enclosure with a maximum internal overpressure target of 10 kPa (100 mbar). The explosion relief was provided by lightly covered openings in the roof or sidewalls. Uniform and stratified initial hydrogen distributions were included in the test matrix and the location of the ignition source was also varied. The maximum hydrogen concentration used within the enclosure was 14% v/v. The hydrogen concentration profile within the enclosure was measured, as were the internal and external pressures. Infrared video images were obtained of the gases vented during the deflagrations. Findings show that the analytical models were generally conservative for overpressure predictions. Flame lengths were found to be far less than suggested by some guidance. Along with the findings, the methodology, test conditions and corresponding results are presented.

Assessing the implications of tectonic compaction on pore pressure using a coupled geomechanical approach

Overpressure prediction in tectonic environments is a challenging topic. The available pore pressure prediction methods are designed to work in environments where compaction is mostly one dimensional and driven by the vertical effective stress applied by the overburden. Furthermore, the impact of tectonic deformation on stresses, porosity and overpressure is still poorly understood. We use a novel methodology to capture the true compaction phenomena occurring in an evolving 3D stress regime by integrating a fully-coupled geomechanical approach with a critical state constitutive model. To this end, numerical models consisting of 2D plane strain clay columns are developed to account for compaction and overpressure generation during sedimentation and tectonic activity. We demonstrate that a high deviatoric stress is generated in compressional tectonic basins, resulting in a substantial decrease in porosity with continuing overpressure increase. The overpressure predictions from our numerical models are then compared to those estimated by the equivalent depth method (EDM) in order to quantify the error induced when using classical approaches, based on vertical effective stress, in tectonic environments. The stress paths presented here reveal that a deviation from the uniaxial burial trend can substantially reduce the accuracy of the EDM overpressure predictions.

Evaluation of overpressure prediction models for air blast above the triple point

The increase of blast exposures leads to the need for better assessment of the blast threat. Empirical models describing the blast propagation in ideal conditions as free-field or surface detonations are commonly employed, but in some configurations the ground-reflected shock should be treated explicitly. Empirical models permit the prediction of the blast characteristics with the ground-reflected shock. The present study uses some original experimental data to evaluate the accuracy of the predicted overpressure with time regarding the reflected shock characteristics. Three methods are tested. The first method, called method of images (MOI) and linearly adding a virtual ground-symmetrical source blast to the free-field blast, is quick but lacks accuracy regarding the reflected shock characteristics. The second method, based on the LOAD_BLAST_ENHANCED function of the commercial LS-DYNA framework, better captures the reflected shock compared to the MOI, but the overall differences with experimental data are of the same order of magnitude as for the MOI. An original fit is introduced, based on standard physical parameters. The accuracy of this fit on the reflected shock characteristics, and the better match with the overall overpressure time series, shows its potential as a new empirical blast predicting tool.

Prediction of blast-induced air overpressure: a hybrid AI-based predictive model.

Blast operations in the vicinity of residential areas usually produce significant environmental problems which may cause severe damage to the nearby areas. Blast-induced air overpressure (AOp) is one of the most important environmental impacts of blast operations which needs to be predicted to minimize the potential risk of damage. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) for the prediction of AOp induced by quarry blasting. For this purpose, 95 blasting operations were precisely monitored in a granite quarry site in Malaysia and AOp values were recorded in each operation. Furthermore, the most influential parameters on AOp, including the maximum charge per delay and the distance between the blast-face and monitoring point, were measured and used to train the ICA-ANN model. Based on the generalized predictor equation and considering the measured data from the granite quarry site, a new empirical equation was developed to predict AOp. For comparison purposes, conventional ANN models were developed and compared with the ICA-ANN results. The results demonstrated that the proposed ICA-ANN model is able to predict blast-induced AOp more accurately than other presented techniques.

Overpressure in the Malay Basin and prediction methods

AbstractPredrill overpressure prediction is important for well planning and migration modeling for prospect evaluation. The Eaton (Journal of Petroleum Technology, 24, 1972, 929) and Bowers (SPE Drilling & Completion, 10, 1995, 89) methods are used worldwide for postdrill overpressure prediction using sonic log and predrill overpressure prediction using seismic interval velocity. In this research, these two methods were used for overpressure prediction using 3D anisotropic prestack depth‐migrated seismic interval velocity in a field of the Malay Basin. In the shallow overpressured zone, where the mechanism of overpressure is undercompaction, the onset of overpressure was predicted reasonably well using the Eaton and Bowers methods with their standard parameters (i.e., Eaton exponent 3 and Bowers loading curve) for seismic velocity. However, in the deep overpressured zone, where fluid expansion is the cause of overpressure generation, these methods underpredicted the high overpressure. In the deep overpressured zone, the overpressures were better predicted by applying a correction to the Eaton method. On the other hand, the Bowers unloading parameters for the fluid expansion mechanisms did not show any significant effect on overpressure prediction. Hence, in the study area, the Bowers method is not effective for 3D overpressure prediction using seismic velocity, whereas the Eaton method is more robust and can be used for 3D overpressure prediction from seismic velocity.

Blast-induced air and ground vibration prediction: a particle swarm optimization-based artificial neural network approach

Mines, quarries, and construction sites face environmental damages due to blasting environmental impacts such as ground vibration and air overpressure. These phenomena may cause damage to structures, groundwater, and ecology of the nearby area. Several empirical predictors have been proposed by various scholars to estimate ground vibration and air overpressure, but these methods are inapplicable in many conditions. However, prediction of ground vibration and air overpressure is complicated as a consequence of the fact that a large number of influential parameters are involved. In this study, a hybrid model of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimization algorithm was implemented to predict ground vibration and air overpressure induced by blasting. To develop this model, 88 datasets including the parameters with the greatest influence on ground vibration and air overpressure were collected from a granite quarry site in Malaysia. The results obtained by the proposed model were compared with the measured values as well as with the results of empirical predictors. The results indicate that the proposed model is an applicable and accurate tool to predict ground vibration and air overpressure induced by blasting.

3-D predrill overpressure prediction using prestack depth-migrated seismic velocity in a field of southwestern Malay Basin

Quantitative predrill pore pressure prediction is very important for reducing the drilling hazards. In many Tertiary basins, generation of overpressure is mainly by compaction disequilibrium due to high deposition rate and low permeability in shale. In the Malay Basin, high geothermal gradient (i.e., 40–60 °C/km) and high heat flow also play an important role in generating overpressure at shallow depth. This study describes the utilization of 3-D prestack depth-migrated seismic interval velocity for predrill pore pressure prediction in a field of southwestern Malay Basin. The quality of 3-D prestack depth-migrated seismic interval velocity was enhanced by calibration with check-shot data. Modified Gardner’s equation was used to generate the 3-D density cube from the interval velocity. The Eaton and Bowers methods were used to compute and predict pore pressure values from the seismic velocity. The Eaton method with standard exponent for seismic velocity gave good prediction in the shallower zone where overpressure is caused by undercompaction mechanism, whereas underpredicted the high pore pressure at the greater depth where fluid expansion is the cause of overpressure. However, the overpressures were predicted quite well by applying correction on the Eaton method for fluid expansion mechanism.

Evaluation of Gas Explosion Overpressures at Configurations with Irregularly Arranged Obstacles

AbstractRapid analytical methods for the calculation of gas explosion overpressures in confined and congested regions are of great value where a benchmark value is sought rather than a time consuming detailed analysis obtainable by computational fluid dynamics (CFD). While earlier correlations have been compared directly to experiments, the geometries used were often simplistic and displayed homogeneity in confinement and congestion. Realistic geometries typically display a high degree of inhomogeneity in confinement and congestion. Here the authors examine geometries where the confinement and congestion were deliberately varied such that some of the geometries possessed inhomogeneity of both parameters. Little experimental data exists for such configurations and hence the authors examine these configurations using CFD. The CFD overpressure predictions at various target locations for 400 scenarios are compared with the results from a newly derived correlation and the correlation of the guidance for the ap...

Vented hydrogen–air deflagration in a small enclosed volume

Since the rapid development of hydrogen stationary and vehicle fuel cells the last decade, it is of importance to improve the prediction of overpressure generated during an accidental explosion which could occur in a confined part of the system. To this end, small-scale vented hydrogen–air explosions were performed in a transparent cubic enclosure with a volume of 3375 cm3. The flame propagation was followed with a high speed camera and the overpressure inside the enclosure was recorded using high frequency piezoelectric transmitters. The effects of vent area and ignition location on the amplitude of pressure peaks in the enclosed volume were investigated. Indeed, vented deflagration generates several pressures peaks according to the configuration and each peak can be the dominating pressure. The parametric study concerned three ignition locations and five square vent sizes.

Reducing the variation of Eaton’s exponent for overpressure prediction in a basin affected by multiple overpressure mechanisms

Deriving global parameters for velocity-based pore pressure predictions in a complex overpressure origins regime is normally difficult and nonrobust. Applying large variations in Eaton’s exponent is an unsatisfactory work practice for velocity-based pore pressure prediction. This study investigates an alternative potential method to reduce the variation of Eaton’s exponent values in an environment of mixed disequilibrium compaction and fluid expansion overpressure mechanisms. Using 25 input wells, the fluid expansion components are estimated using velocity-vertical effective stress plot and then subtracted from the pressure measurements to obtain the disequilibrium compaction components. Eaton’s exponents are then derived only from the disequilibrium compaction components. The spatial variation of Eaton’s exponent is greatly reduced from the range of 1–5 to the range of 1–1.9 after removing the fluid expansion components from the raw overpressure data set. A constant Eaton’s exponent of 1.44 is used throughout the field to predict the disequilibrium compaction components and the fluid expansion components are predicted from gridding of the well data. The two components are combined to produce a final pore pressure prediction profile, which yields less uncertainty than the traditional Bowers method.

Analytic computations of nonideal corrections to blast wave overpressure predictions at high altitudes

AbstractIn this paper, the effects of temperature, pressure, winds, moisture, and molecular content on the propagation of blast waves at high altitudes are investigated. These cause refractions and attenuations which modify the recorded ground overpressures from the ideal predictions. By coupling these effects together, the nonideal corrections to the overpressures are estimated by applying approximations which are dependent on the angle of propagation of the blast wave.

Background-oriented schlieren diagnostics for large-scale explosive testing

Experimental measurements of shock wave propagation from explosions of C4 are presented. Each test is recorded with a high-speed digital video camera and the shock wave is visualized using background-oriented schlieren (BOS). Two different processing techniques for BOS analysis are presented: image subtraction and image correlation. The image subtraction technique is found to provide higher resolution for identifying the location of a shock wave propagating into still air. The image correlation technique is more appropriate for identifying shock reflections and multiple shock impacts in a region with complex flow patterns. The optical shock propagation measurements are used to predict the peak overpressure and overpressure duration at different locations and are compared to experimental pressure gage measurements. The overpressure predictions agree well with the pressure gage measurements and the overpressure duration prediction is within an order of magnitude of the experimental measurements. The BOS technique is shown to be an important tool for explosive research which can be simply incorporated into typical large-scale outdoor tests.

Overpressure Prediction In The North-West Niger Delta, Using Porosity Data

Overpressure prediction in the North West of Niger Delta, using porosity data was carried out to safeguard hazards associated with drilling accident due to blowout. In the absence of seismic data to predict overpressure, porosity-dependent parameters and acoustic impedance could be used to predict the tops of overpressured zones in the area of study in the Niger Delta. Overpressure prediction is vital for safe and economic drilling. Composite logs were used to obtain the required data by digitizing the logs and deduction using the appropriate relationships. The findings from the study show that porosity decreases with depth, with overpressure zone detected at about 3500m depth due to porosity deviation from normal trend. Pressure gradient in the upper normal pressure of the field is determined to be 0.989 psi/ft, this implies that within the established normal pressure gradient of 0.71 - 1.1 psi/ft in the Niger Delta. Formation overpressure gradient is determined to be 1.40 psi/ft. The overpressure zone coincides within the high shale-to-sand ratio of Agbada under compacted Formation. The identification of the tops of overpressure zones in any formation penetrated by a borehole enhances the use of normal drilling techniques of the borehole. This also reduces the cost of drilling the entire well as the special drilling technique will be applied only in the overpressure zones. This finding can aid in the prevention of drilling accident and resource wastage in exploration activities.

Dynamic Prediction and Measurement of Overpressure for Venting of Gas Explosion

In order to predict the effects of gas volume and mass inertia of explosion doors on overpressure for venting of gas explosion, a numerical method are used to simulate some situations of venting devices such as panels or explosion doors. The numerical data are in good agreement with the experiments of panels given an overpressure peak. A set of experiments were carried out in a 10 m3 silo and methane is used as fuel. The results of measurement in experiments indicated that the inertial mass of explosion door has a possibility of causing considerable damage and has effected on the rate of opening vented door and the pressure rise in such the experimental silo.

Research Note: Overpressure prediction from C‐wave seismic data

ABSTRACTRecently, mode converted shear waves (C‐waves) have been shown to enable overpressure prediction in media where primary wave acquisition is inhibited by gas and fluid effects – C‐wave moveout is analysed and a long standing relationship between differential stress and primary‐wave (P‐wave) velocity is modified and employed. Though pore‐pressure prediction based on C‐waves is supported by empirical evidence from laboratory and field experiments, a theoretical justification has yet to be developed. In this research note, we provide a supporting algebra for the original relationship between pore pressure and C‐wave velocity.

Overpressure prediction of the Efomeh field using synthetic data, onshore Niger Delta, Nigeria

For effective and accurate prediction of overpressure in the Efomeh field, located in the Niger delta basin of Nigeria, integrated seismic and borehole analyses were undertaken. Normal and abnormal pore pressure zones were delineated based on the principle of normal and deviation from normal velocity trends. The transition between the two trends signifies the top of overpressure. The overpressure tops were picked at regular intervals from seismic data using interval velocities obtained by applying Dix’s approximation. The accuracy of the predicted overpressure zone was confirmed from the sonic velocity data of the Efomeh 01 well. The variation to the depth of overpressure between the predicted and observed values was less than 10 m at the Efomeh 01 well location, with confidence of over 99 per cent. The depth map generated shows that the depth distribution to the top of the overpressure zone of the Efomeh field falls within the sub-sea depth range of 2655 ± 2 m (2550 ms) to 3720 ± 2 m (2900 ms). This depth conforms to thick marine shales using the Efomeh 01 composite log. The lower part of the Agbada Formation within the Efomeh field is overpressured and the depth of the top of the overpressure does not follow any time-stratigraphic boundary across the field. Prediction of the top of the overpressure zone within the Efomeh field for potential wells that will total depth beyond 2440 m sub-sea is very important for safer drilling practice as well as the prevention of lost circulation.

Pre-Drill Overpressure Prediction in the South Caspian Basin Using Seismic Data

Results are presented of the first pre-drill overpressure prediction in the South Caspian basin (SCB) on the basis of seismic data. The method is based on the REZAYR software package, which operates in Microsoft Windows. The analyzed seismic time-section fragment in the SCB was initially converted to an impedance section and then to a formation velocity section. Three overpressure zones of different thicknesses and extents are established. The shallowest overpressure zone extends to depths of less than 1 km. The nature of this relatively thin zone can be associated with biochemical gas generation. The second overpressure zone covers the depth interval 1.5–3 km and is most likely the result of non-equilibrium compaction (under compaction) because of high sedimentation rates. The third overpressure zone, the longest and thickest, is observed in the 6–9 km depth interval and is most likely attributed to hydrocarbons generation. This deepest zone poses the greatest risk for drilling. The seismic method of direct overpressure prediction in the SCB is in agreement with theoretical and experimental estimates and so is recommended for use in the SCB.

Prediction of near field overpressure from quarry blasting

This paper investigates the propagation of airblast or pressure waves in air produced by bench blasting (i.e. detonation of the explosive in a row of blastholes, breaking the burden of rock towards the free vertical face of the block). Peak overpressure is calculated as a function of blasting parameters (explosive mass per delay and velocity at which the detonation sequence proceeds along the bench) and the polar coordinates of the position of interest (distance to the source and azimuth with respect to the free face). The model has been fitted to empirical data using linear least squares. The data set is composed of 122 airblast records monitored at distances less than 400 m in 41 production blasts carried out in two quarries. The model is statistically significant and has a determination coefficient of 0.87. The formula is validated from 12 airblast measurements gathered in five additional blasts.